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Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

Baddog posted:

One of the cooler things is the battery swap, where you just pull into a station, get an entire battery change in ~1 minute and just keep moving. Tesla's superchargers are nice enough and way faster than the others, but it still takes about half an hour to get an 80% charge from near zero. And you're tied to your battery, which is slowly degrading and starting to become a problem for the people with older teslas. Getting a new battery is prohibitively expensive. China has had their design out there for long enough to build these stations *everywhere*. Why haven't any of the western designers copied that innovation and made it so that changing the battery pack on your car is as easy as swapping the battery on your drill? Who knows. Slow as poo poo.

Tesla did this as a trial years ago, but decided to stop it.

That “+EV is a trap” newsletter was quite interesting, but on the other hand you have the recent Red Lobster all-you-can-eat shrimp offer, so…land of contrasts.

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LanceHunter
Nov 12, 2016

Beautiful People Club


Phone-posting now so I can’t include all the info I usually do, but here’s the NY Times reporting on the new inflation numbers. 3.4% rise in prices, down from 3.5% last month.

LanceHunter
Nov 12, 2016

Beautiful People Club


Here's the big chart of inflation over time...



Markets seem happy so far.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Honda, Yamaha and others have built a standard for vehicle battery swaps and have been rolling it out in China and Japan, but it's mostly focused on scooters and motorcycles so far. The batteries are only the size of a coffee can though.

LanceHunter
Nov 12, 2016

Beautiful People Club


Hadlock posted:

Honda, Yamaha and others have built a standard for vehicle battery swaps and have been rolling it out in China and Japan, but it's mostly focused on scooters and motorcycles so far. The batteries are only the size of a coffee can though.

The local scooter-rental companies here in Austin have been moving to the swappable-battery models over the last couple of months. It seems like a good use-case.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22
It definitely makes sense at that scale, which is a lot closer to your power drill than a 80kWh LiFePo battery for a car.

SpartanIvy
May 18, 2007
Hair Elf
I'm not trusting the local service stations to not swap out my brand new $20K battery for one on the brink of failure at my first swap.

We're going to have to figure out the modern equivalent to glass viewing globes on gas pumps for people to trust they're not getting screwed with bad batteries.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

SpartanIvy posted:

I'm not trusting the local service stations to not swap out my brand new $20K battery for one on the brink of failure at my first swap.

We're going to have to figure out the modern equivalent to glass viewing globes on gas pumps for people to trust they're not getting screwed with bad batteries.

You don't own the battery. If for some reason you get a bad one, you just swap it for the next one in the stack, takes another minute.

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Gucci Loafers posted:

BYD is genuinely impressive, I've seen their cars earlier this year and it's Tesla with quality the level or Toyota/Honda. Nothing fancy but the thing it's astonishingly affordable. On another hand, it's a enormous indictment of the American automotive industry. They just can't innovate.

Apologies that this is a tiktok but I randomly saw these two videos this car reviewer did on a BYD SUV and holy poo poo these things in America would eat Tesla's (and everybody else's) lunch.

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTLbSjH8V/

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTLbS2nH6/

SpartanIvy
May 18, 2007
Hair Elf

Baddog posted:

You don't own the battery. If for some reason you get a bad one, you just swap it for the next one in the stack, takes another minute.

Unless the bad battery leaves you stranded in the middle of a trip, and then it could take hours.

Or if it starts a fire and you die.

LanceHunter
Nov 12, 2016

Beautiful People Club


D-Pad posted:

Apologies that this is a tiktok but I randomly saw these two videos this car reviewer did on a BYD SUV and holy poo poo these things in America would eat Tesla's (and everybody else's) lunch.

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTLbSjH8V/

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTLbS2nH6/

You know, I had thought the idea that TikTok was pushing PRC-approved messaging/propaganda was pretty far-fetched. After seeing those videos, though, I'll need to re-evaluate my position. They have a level of "fawning endlessly over superficial bullshit" that would make a 2012-era Tesla fan blush.

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
yeah, you posted a drat advertisement to the thread

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Agreed it's all superficial bullshit but it's also the exact kind of superficial bullshit most American car buyers go crazy over. They'd definitely have to change the name of the model but you can't tell me those wouldn't sell like hotcakes over here if they came in at the lower non-tariff price point.

hypnophant
Oct 19, 2012
I like how much tire the tank turn left on the pavement, because rubber tires can't really slide that way. I wonder how predictable it is whether you move over a space to the right or left from where you start

Neon Belly
Feb 12, 2008

I need something stronger.

It’s also a $150,000 car the video is showing off. This isn’t to compete with anything Tesla makes.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


tiktoks are now threadbanned too, I’ll update the OP later

:sickos:

hypnophant
Oct 19, 2012
yeah $150k is competing with a g wagon or really tricked out escalade

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

D-Pad posted:

Agreed it's all superficial bullshit but it's also the exact kind of superficial bullshit most American car buyers go crazy over. They'd definitely have to change the name of the model but you can't tell me those wouldn't sell like hotcakes over here if they came in at the lower non-tariff price point.

ok OP, i'm gonna tell you: they won't sell like hotcakes

breaking in to the NA market even without tariffs is loving hard

D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Oh my bad I thought it was significantly cheaper I was looking at the wrong model prices I guess. Still, Tesla couldn't do anything close at the same price point they are such a mess.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

A conversation about US electric vehicles is no longer exclusively a conversation about Tesla.

source

quote:

According to analyses by Cox Automotive, Tesla sales accounted for 55% of all EVs sold in the US in 2023, down from 62% in 2022. At the start of the year in Q1 2022, Tesla had a 75% EV market share in America. In Q1 2024, Tesla is down to 52% of EV market share in America.

Remarkably, Rivian is already approaching numbers by the biggest non-Tesla competitors. Hyundai-Kia-Genesis at #2 but with Ford-Lincoln very close behind, and all of the makers with 10K+ numbers are clearly scrambling to eat into Tesla's faltering market share.

The total market is potentially many times larger, though:

and "potentially" is just extreme hedging on my part: regulatory pressure is already there, with California in particular requiring all new cars, light trucks, vans, and SUVs sold to be zero emissions by 2035. So the market is opening up so fast that competition between EV makers is probably less important than competition between EVs and traditional fueled cars. The more these mandates spread, the more EVs car makers have to make, to retain access to the US domestic market.

I think that really colors the numbers. Tesla's pole position is extremely insecure, every carmaker has to see the writing on the wall and have plans to switch to electric for most or all of their range in ten years, and the landscape will look vastly different in 2034 than it does in 2024.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

D-Pad posted:

Apologies that this is a tiktok but I randomly saw these two videos this car reviewer did on a BYD SUV and holy poo poo these things in America would eat Tesla's (and everybody else's) lunch.

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTLbSjH8V/

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTLbS2nH6/

I thought they were making GBS threads about the "amphibious" claim. Mitch's sister-in-law bought the wrong EV for tooling around the estates.

But ehhh .... here's a long-form semi-legit review of something that goes against a model 3

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-reviews/byd/seal-ev/

Oil!
Nov 5, 2008

Der's e'rl in dem der hills!


Ham Wrangler

Leperflesh posted:

and the landscape will look vastly different in 2034 than it does in 2024.

Most notably it will be littered with the collapsed road infrastructure that can't support a fleet 80% made of 3.5+ ton electric trucks and SUVs.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Oil! posted:

Most notably it will be littered with the collapsed road infrastructure that can't support a fleet 80% made of 3.5+ ton electric trucks and SUVs.

this is super overstated, yeah the Hummer weighs 9k lbs but here's the curb weight of a bunch of the most popular EVs:

Model 3 - 4000
Ioniq 5 - 4800
Mach E - 4900
Blazer - 5500
EV9 - 5800 (the EV9 is fuckin huge)
ID4 - 4900

so they're like roughly the weight of a quarter ton truck which is already the predominant vehicle type on american roads

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

our roads handle tractor-trailer semis in the millions

also a much bigger issue is that we're not connecting new capacity to the grid fast enough to support a massive increase in home-charging EVs

also also our road infrastructure is failing anyway, we gotta replace like ten thousand bridges in the US

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

Leperflesh posted:

our roads handle tractor-trailer semis in the millions

also a much bigger issue is that we're not connecting new capacity to the grid fast enough to support a massive increase in home-charging EVs

also also our road infrastructure is failing anyway, we gotta replace like ten thousand bridges in the US

The tractor trailers are also responsible for a crazy amount of the road wear. Like, at least an order of magnitude more than the cars, if not more. It's been a long time since I've seen the numbers but it's something like 100x the road wear of your typical non-SUV passenger car.

So yeah, increasing the weight of the vehicle fleets that much could be an issue.

I mean, almost certainly not as big an issue as the long-term costs of sticking with a fossil fuel vehicle fleet, but it is an issue.

TooMuchAbstraction
Oct 14, 2012

I spent four years making
Waves of Steel
Hell yes I'm going to turn my avatar into an ad for it.
Fun Shoe
I think it was the Ask a Traffic Engineer thread where someone mused about having a separate set of roadways for cargo, to which it was pointed out that this would make it very starkly clear to everyone just how much road taxes go to subsidize truck-based cargo transport. Damage to roads scales with weight of vehicle to the fourth power (actually scales with axle load, but still).

So yes, making everyones' daily drivers ~1.5x heavier would have an impact, but they're still lost in the impact from one or two big rigs, or even just the people driving F-350s.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Those dedicated roads should have metal bars you can clamp on to improve efficiency and keep you moving in the right direction.

SpartanIvy
May 18, 2007
Hair Elf

Lockback posted:

Those dedicated roads should have metal bars you can clamp on to improve efficiency and keep you moving in the right direction.

You might even be able to make really powerful trucks that can haul a bunch of trailers at once for increased efficiency.

TooMuchAbstraction
Oct 14, 2012

I spent four years making
Waves of Steel
Hell yes I'm going to turn my avatar into an ad for it.
Fun Shoe

Lockback posted:

Those dedicated roads should have metal bars you can clamp on to improve efficiency and keep you moving in the right direction.

Yes, that was also pointed out to the poster, how you can reduce road wear by having a metal road and metal wheels. Gotta keep them narrow to save on costs, but with a proper design you can just install a basic guide systems to keep the vehicle on the road.

LanceHunter
Nov 12, 2016

Beautiful People Club


Here's a challenge for any poster who wants to do the whole "tee-hee I'll make a joke alluding to how these should be trains! This is a very new joke that hasn't been run into the ground because I am the wittiest person on the forum!"

Go 4 weeks without any form of home delivery. Anything you get shipped/mailed/delivered to you, have it sent to a PO box or other delivery location that is in a place that is now (or could soon feasibly be) hooked up to a cargo rail line. Go full 1890s where you had to go down to the train depot to pick up anything that has come in from more than 30 miles away.

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
thats been my life for like 4 years, 7 years if you count any po box. i switch po boxes when i move lol

but the trick is to live in a city

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22
the combo of rail for distance moves / bulk moves and truck for time sensitive/last mile is pretty baller

Oil!
Nov 5, 2008

Der's e'rl in dem der hills!


Ham Wrangler

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

this is super overstated, yeah the Hummer weighs 9k lbs but here's the curb weight of a bunch of the most popular EVs:

Model 3 - 4000
Ioniq 5 - 4800
Mach E - 4900
Blazer - 5500
EV9 - 5800 (the EV9 is fuckin huge)
ID4 - 4900

so they're like roughly the weight of a quarter ton truck which is already the predominant vehicle type on american roads

The problem is that most of the top selling vehicles are quarter ton trucks or SUVs of a similar size. People won't give up their emotional support F-150 to convert to an electric sedan.

SpartanIvy
May 18, 2007
Hair Elf

LanceHunter posted:

Here's a challenge for any poster who wants to do the whole "tee-hee I'll make a joke alluding to how these should be trains! This is a very new joke that hasn't been run into the ground because I am the wittiest person on the forum!"

Go 4 weeks without any form of home delivery. Anything you get shipped/mailed/delivered to you, have it sent to a PO box or other delivery location that is in a place that is now (or could soon feasibly be) hooked up to a cargo rail line. Go full 1890s where you had to go down to the train depot to pick up anything that has come in from more than 30 miles away.

You make it sound like having to go to designated places to pick things up was in the wild West when really it was the 1990s. I guess retail is so dead that everyone thinks it's either Amazon Prime or the Sears catalog again, with nothing in-between. You can have department stores across from train stations, that's how many of them used to be built. It also allows people to get to them as well if your city has passenger rail service!

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
the funny thing, tho, is that the usa does more freight train volume per capita than europe. euros do 3 trillion ton-km, americans do 2 trillion, but there's 750 million europeans to 350 million americans. the vaunted rest-of-world superiority is almost entirely passenger, but that's because american aviation is so dominant

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

SpartanIvy posted:

You make it sound like having to go to designated places to pick things up was in the wild West when really it was the 1990s. I guess retail is so dead that everyone thinks it's either Amazon Prime or the Sears catalog again, with nothing in-between. You can have department stores across from train stations, that's how many of them used to be built. It also allows people to get to them as well if your city has passenger rail service!

trains loving suck for last mile at small scale, like they are the absolute worst way to move poo poo around

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


hypnophant posted:

which part?

strong dollar makes buying stuff from overseas cheap, selling stuff overseas expensive. the US dollar is in constant demand due to its stability, which comes from the strength and diversity of the US economy; that demand makes the dollar useful as a trade currency, which increases the demand, and ultimately entrenches the dollar as the global reserve currency. Being the reserve currency reinforces the dollar's stability, since in times of crisis, weaker economies will try to shore themselves up with extra dollars, bidding up its value - paradoxically this happens even if the crisis originates in the US and explains how we came through the unsteadiness last year so much more cleanly than everyone else. Anyway we've been in this virtuous circle since Nixon drove the final nail into the coffin of the gold standard, and the dollar is now insurmountable, at least for the foreseeable future

this is all pretty good for american consumers except it makes stuff produced here relatively expensive. for cheap mechanized agriculture products that's fine, for highly labor-intensive services like healthcare, education and construction it sucks but is unavoidable, but for large-scale non-specialist manufacturing like cars it's a death sentence, and the only reason the american auto manufacturers have clung on is a combo of protectionism and subsidies. You have to have noticed that the only US cars on the road any more are trucks and SUVs and that toyota et al aren't allowed to sell their good trucks at a good price here - the hilux would eat the f150 alive the same way the camry did for sedans if not for the tariff, and that would be the end of american auto manufacturing

Wait what?

Tell me more about this, it's blowing my mind. How is Toyota beating American automotive manufactures at trucks?

TooMuchAbstraction
Oct 14, 2012

I spent four years making
Waves of Steel
Hell yes I'm going to turn my avatar into an ad for it.
Fun Shoe

bob dobbs is dead posted:

the funny thing, tho, is that the usa does more freight train volume per capita than europe. euros do 3 trillion ton-km, americans do 2 trillion, but there's 750 million europeans to 350 million americans. the vaunted rest-of-world superiority is almost entirely passenger, but that's because american aviation is so dominant

How much of that is down to Americans having a vastly lower population density and thus needing to ship things further? Americans also consume more products, generally, so that's also more stuff to be shipped around.

Sundae
Dec 1, 2005

Gucci Loafers posted:

Wait what?

Tell me more about this, it's blowing my mind. How is Toyota beating American automotive manufactures at trucks?

Yeah I'd like to know this too. The F150 outsells the Tacoma by almost 400% unit count and the Tacoma is (supposedly? I'm not a truck guy) a slightly bigger/more-powerful Hilux. Add to the equation that a lot of truck purchases in the USA are driven by car-culture rather than need or utility, and I don't see how a legal Hilux dethrones the king of big rear end unnecessarily large American God-fearing trucks.

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Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

pmchem posted:

tiktoks are now threadbanned too, I’ll update the OP later

I approve

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