China Megathread - Their navy can be taken seriously or taken littorally

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > China Megathread - Their navy can be taken seriously or taken littorally

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Sedisp: Jun 20, 2012

Raenir Salazar posted:

Now if that's not what you meant, great, I am just observer that in the way you wrote it it sounded weird, that can happen! Afterall this is a casual conversation and peoples language might not be clearly conveyed to others. If we're both in agreement that all jobs should have unions then perfect.

I legitimately do not understand how you took "You should do X. I don't know how you'd do X because of Y but I don't have knowledge of X" to mean "X shouldn't happen"

Raenir Salazar posted:

In short, more people generally emphasize with whats on screen than with who is next to them.

Uhhh no I don't think that's true in the slightest. Especially laughable if you're talking about unionizing labor on the basis of solidarity.

Sedisp fucked around with this message at 01:44 on Sep 11, 2021

# ? Sep 11, 2021 01:42

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# ? Jun 10, 2024 08:35

Raenir Salazar: Nov 5, 2010; College Slice

Sedisp posted:

I legitimately do not understand how you took "You should do X. I don't know how you'd do X because of Y but I don't have knowledge of X" to mean "X shouldn't happen"

There's definitely an example somewhere where saying "I don't think you'd do X" is meant in a more back handed sort of way; you've clarified that isn't what you meant though and that's fine enough for me.

Sedisp posted:

Uhhh no I don't think that's true in the slightest. Especially laughable if you're talking about unionizing labor on the basis of solidarity.

Upton Sinclair would disagree.

# ? Sep 11, 2021 01:50

Silver2195: Apr 4, 2012

Raenir Salazar posted:

Because "real examples" depend on incomplete information, and often result in "Well that's just an exception, it doesn't mean anything"; while fiction according to Jungian symbolism is universal in its applicability.

I don't deny that fiction can influence people's views of the real world, sometimes even legitimately, but this is a pretty galaxy-brained way of putting it.

# ? Sep 11, 2021 03:28

Raenir Salazar: Nov 5, 2010; College Slice

Silver2195 posted:

I don't deny that fiction can influence people's views of the real world, sometimes even legitimately, but this is a pretty galaxy-brained way of putting it.

It's in response to Sedisp being confused as to why I would first point to say, a film depicting the exploitation of labour instead of referring to real life example.

My response to that is to basically point out that if you weren't there and weren't present, news or reporting on real life workplace abuses isn't really going to convince you of the need to reform; people who are amendable to unions are already amendable to unions; anyone on the fence or not amendable is going to litigate it using whatever gap exists in the reporting or facts available.

You don't have that problem with fiction, and people do tend to feel a parasocial connection with the characters on screen as though they are real people; there's plenty of research regarding this and as a result of this feel more empathy towards this fictional representations than they would otherwise. Because basically people don't learn from being told, they need to be shown.

So I think this is a reasonable approach, you may not agree and you can choose yourself to have a different approach for approaching how to discuss and convey ideas, and I have mine.

# ? Sep 11, 2021 04:10

Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

Raenir Salazar posted:

You don't have that problem with fiction, and people do tend to feel a parasocial connection with the characters on screen as though they are real people; there's plenty of research regarding this and as a result of this feel more empathy towards this fictional representations than they would otherwise. Because basically people don't learn from being told, they need to be shown.

Yeah, but the problem with using fiction is that it didn't loving happen.

I cannot believe I have to explain that.

# ? Sep 11, 2021 04:19

Sedisp: Jun 20, 2012

You also lose any benefits of fiction vs reality the exact second you have to explain in detail what the anime is about

# ? Sep 11, 2021 04:47

Kavros: May 18, 2011; sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep

Raenir Salazar posted:

Because "real examples" depend on incomplete information, and often result in "Well that's just an exception, it doesn't mean anything"; while fiction according to Jungian symbolism is universal in its applicability.

I need to attend these Jungian workshops that teach me to apply any fiction, from Prose Edda to anime crossover slash fanfic, as universally applicable to any lesson I want to invent about how things really work.

# ? Sep 11, 2021 05:57

Megillah Gorilla: Sep 22, 2003; If only all of life's problems could be solved by smoking a professor of ancient evil texts.; Bread Liar

Sedisp posted:

This is what I was responding to.

Oh for gently caress's sake.

I used that specific example of that specific poster because it was an explicit example of capital creating division amongst workers via making them all fight each other rather than realise their common cause and unite against their real enemy.

Was it really that hard for you to understand or do you just have difficulty comprehending all basic similies?

EDIT: Tedius. And. Exhausting.

I loving warned y'all.

Megillah Gorilla fucked around with this message at 09:11 on Sep 11, 2021

# ? Sep 11, 2021 09:05

Sedisp: Jun 20, 2012

Megillah Gorilla posted:

Oh for gently caress's sake.

I used that specific example of that specific poster because it was an explicit example of capital creating division amongst workers via making them all fight each other rather than realise their common cause and unite against their real enemy.

Was it really that hard for you to understand or do you just have difficulty comprehending all basic similies?

EDIT: Tedius. And. Exhausting.

I loving warned y'all.

Yeah and I explained why it wasn't a good simile.

# ? Sep 11, 2021 10:03

Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

RS I think I understand your point, and thus to convert our side i have found a way to appeal to your pathos while also staying relevant to the the thread because this is particular propaganda was produced by the CCP:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0T0a_jXHiDo

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Sep 11, 2021 14:21

HookedOnChthonics: Dec 5, 2015; Profoundly dull

Megillah Gorilla posted:

Oh for gently caress's sake.

I used that specific example of that specific poster because it was an explicit example of capital creating division amongst workers via making them all fight each other rather than realise their common cause and unite against their real enemy.

Was it really that hard for you to understand or do you just have difficulty comprehending all basic similies?

EDIT: Tedius. And. Exhausting.

I loving warned y'all.

If the point you want to make is that in a lot of modern employment situations there's been a total dissolution of any correlation between title and job, that's a reasonable point, and as several people have identified is a tactic for appeasing employees and complicating the task of organizing--and it's no mistake that the fields called out as having this issue are some of the most alienated and inimical to organizing.

But, yes, in the context of unionizing a grocery store, the $12/hr manager is absolutely assumed to be the enemy of the $10/hr stockboys; even if the manager works the same long shifts. Within the broad context of the desired end-state, they're exploited and their liberation should be fought for. But within that workplace the manager's job responsibility is ensuring that the employment contract is fulfilled to the company's satisfaction, and any labor organizer on the planet will tell you to keep them out of it even if they're 'cool.' Nominal pay dollars is a very poor measure of 'which side' someone in a given role can be understood as acting for--or are you gonna be the one claiming that the Cuban Revolution wasn't fighting for liberation because Batista's soldiers were also poorly paid?

The reason comparing this to ethnicity (or comparing someone who agitates against managers to a racist stooge falling for the bosses' trick) is disgusting is because if being a manager is such a raw deal they're free to quit those responsibilities at any time and step down to the worker role. It's the 'blue lives matter' canard all over again.

# ? Sep 11, 2021 17:34

Probably Magic: Oct 9, 2012; Looking cute, feeling cute.

Raenir, as a fiction writer, I can tell you, real life is way weirder and more interesting than fiction. History is way more jawdropping and relatable than fiction, and that's partly (literally taught this school) people are held back in storytelling by "believability." But reality, like the utter chaos of the Franz Ferdinand assassination or the cat and mouse of the Cuba Missile Crisis, if invented wouldn't be believed. Or the past five years, for that matter. To the point where it's hard to keep up as a writer with being as absurd as reality! So actual history is usually the better example political debates than fiction, which is generally composites and extracts of pieces too complicated to relate anyway without just, well, straight up writing a textbook.

# ? Sep 11, 2021 21:14

therobit: Aug 19, 2008; I've been tryin' to speak with you for a long time

Y�all this entire derail started because some tech workers in the 9-9-6 video someone posted had �manager� in their title and Captain Obvious posted that they didn�t deserve protections because they were managers and therefore the enemy. Thus the point that a lot of people who have the title of manager are not in fact management but labor. IDK why people keep arguing against something else.

# ? Sep 11, 2021 22:31

Slow News Day: Jul 4, 2007

SlothfulCobra posted:

Authoritarian China.

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1436029367394652164

Disgusting. And there are people who still defend this kind of thing.

# ? Sep 11, 2021 22:42

BrigadierSensible: Feb 16, 2012; I've got a pocket full of cheese🧀, and a garden full of trees🌴.

I think many of the problems that China, (and by extension the CCP), face, both internally and externally, are due to the fact that they do not play enough cricket.

I challenge any one of you filthy CIA funded dogs to offer an argument, (hopefully backed up with facts), that would prove me wrong.

Edit: An unrelated Chinese sporting question: Is the CSL still spending obscene amounts of money on over the hill marquee players to come to Shanghai etc.? And if they are, are they still stiffing them on the checks, like they did with Paul Pogba(?), or some other supremely overqualified European bloke?

Same question wrt the Chinese Basketball league. Though, they are better on paying their imported players, and whilst still pay over the going rates for tall Americans, just not the absurd money people like Tim Cahill were getting 5-10 years ago.

BrigadierSensible fucked around with this message at 03:38 on Sep 12, 2021

# ? Sep 12, 2021 03:03

Skippy McPants: Mar 19, 2009

BrigadierSensible posted:

I think many of the problems that China, (and by extension the CCP), face, both internally and externally, are due to the fact that they do not play enough cricket.

The U.K. and India play all kinds of cricket, and they dun seem to be doin' too hot either.

# ? Sep 12, 2021 04:25

BrigadierSensible: Feb 16, 2012; I've got a pocket full of cheese🧀, and a garden full of trees🌴.

Skippy McPants posted:

The U.K. and India play all kinds of cricket, and they dun seem to be doin' too hot either.

True. But neither the UK nor India is doing genocide in Xinjiang. So at least they have that.

# ? Sep 12, 2021 05:44

Sedisp: Jun 20, 2012

BrigadierSensible posted:

True. But neither the UK nor India is doing genocide in Xinjiang. So at least they have that.

Cricket was invented in the 1700s a time during which the UK was famous for not doing genocides.

Hold on I'm being handed a note to read but first let me take a big sip of coffee.

# ? Sep 12, 2021 06:39

BrigadierSensible: Feb 16, 2012; I've got a pocket full of cheese🧀, and a garden full of trees🌴.

Sedisp posted:

Cricket was invented in the 1700s a time during which the UK was famous for not doing genocides.

Hold on I'm being handed a note to read but first let me take a big sip of coffee.

Oh, the UK has had more than it's share of historical genocides. And India is currently doing one in Assam, (and depending on how widely you want to define genocide, the BJP's anti-Muslim crusade across the country could indeed count.)

But none of those things are happening in Xinjiang currently. Although it is certainly not beneath the respective governments of both countries to try and move them there in the near future.

Oh, and cricket was invented as a reason to day drink on Sundays. Thus making it the bestest sport ever!

# ? Sep 12, 2021 06:53

Sedisp: Jun 20, 2012

BrigadierSensible posted:

Oh, the UK has had more than it's share of historical genocides. And India is currently doing one in Assam, (and depending on how widely you want to define genocide, the BJP's anti-Muslim crusade across the country could indeed count.)

But none of those things are happening in Xinjiang currently. Although it is certainly not beneath the respective governments of both countries to try and move them there in the near future.

Oh, and cricket was invented as a reason to day drink on Sundays. Thus making it the bestest sport ever!

I'm just saying that if you were to make a graph of genocides there's going to be a massive spike at approximately the same time cricket is invented.

# ? Sep 12, 2021 07:57

BrigadierSensible: Feb 16, 2012; I've got a pocket full of cheese🧀, and a garden full of trees🌴.

Sedisp posted:

I'm just saying that if you were to make a graph of genocides there's going to be a massive spike at approximately the same time cricket is invented.

Let us just agree that cricket, in particular Test Cricket, is a much more pleasant thing than genocide.

And a lot easier to drink beer whilst watching.

# ? Sep 12, 2021 09:20

Silver2195: Apr 4, 2012

Sedisp posted:

I'm just saying that if you were to make a graph of genocides there's going to be a massive spike at approximately the same time cricket is invented.

This is unsurprising, when you think about it: https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/the-sporting-spirit/

# ? Sep 12, 2021 15:20

Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

Apparently the Chinese government is going to dismantle a major property group to stop the market from melting down:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/13/evergrande-investors-face-75-hit-as-company-edges-closer-to-restructure

quote:

The troubled Chinese property group Evergrande has edged closer to a government-engineered restructuring which could see bondholders take huge losses as Beijing�s price for saving millions of homeowners from financial ruin.

With the likelihood increasing every day that the massively indebted group will be dismantled to avoid triggering a market-wide panic, trade in one of its bonds was suspended in Shanghai on Monday after it plunged 25%.

Shares in the group founded by billionaire Xu Jiayin in the 1990s slipped 6% on Monday to sit below their 2009 float price of HK$3.5.
A woman walks past a property advertisement in Hong Kong<br>A woman walks past a property advertisement for Emerald Bay by China Evergrande in Hong Kong, China. August 25, 2021. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu
China property market rocked as Evergrande struggles to repay $300bn debts
Read more

Evergrande has been struggling to manage its enormous $300bn debt pile for several years but tougher regulations about debt levels brought in last year as part of president Xi Jinping�s drive against inequality has accelerated its crisis. A firesale of its properties has failed to dent the debt pile despite generous discounts, a strategy further undermined by falling house prices.

The property market has exploded in China in the past two decades. Total real estate sales were 16tn yuan ($2.5tn) in 2019, or 10% of the country�s entire economic output.

A disorderly failure of Evergrande would represent a serious risk to the whole Chinese economy, with the risk of contagion in the rest of the world.

Another sign of the weakness of the sector came when shares in the office developer Soho China tumbled 35% on Monday � its biggest daily drop since listing more than 14 years ago � after the US investment giant Blackstone scrapped a $3bn takeover deal.

Economists at the consultancy Capital Economics said in a note titled �Evergrande circling the plughole� that a banking failure triggered by the collapse of major property developers was the �single most likely scenario that could lead to a hard landing in China�.

Nomura International Hong Kong credit analyst Iris Chen told Bloomberg on Monday that a restructuring of the group was �almost unavoidable�. She believes that the government in Beijing will ensure that Evergrande delivers homes and pays suppliers, where dollar debt investors would get 25% of their money back.

Luther Chai, a senior research analyst at CreditSights Singapore, also said Evergrande will default and enter restructuring. Evergrande�s dollar bonds are trading at around 30c in the dollar, which indicates losses of 70%. Foreign investors own $7.4bn of Evergrande�s US-denominated debt.

Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital, also believes that the most likely endgame is �a managed restructuring in which other developers take over Evergrande�s uncompleted projects in exchange for a share of its land bank�.

Capital estimates that Evergrande had 1.3tn yuan in presale liabilities at the end of June, equivalent to roughly 1.4m individual properties that it has committed to complete. �A restructuring that prioritised homebuyers might not leave much for other creditors,� Williams said, pointing to heavy losses for bondholders.

Xi seems determined to target some of China�s billionaires in his drive to create a more equal society, as Alibaba founder Jack Ma found to his cost last year. In a harbinger of the �three red lines� introduced to toughen up balance sheet requirements for property firms, Xi said two years ago that houses were for �living in, not for speculating�.

Evergrande was the �poster child for excess leverage in a sector in which policymakers want to instil more discipline,� Williams said.

Ben Wang, of Jamieson Coote Bonds in Sydney, also agrees that the default is coming. �Given the large size of its balance sheet, Evergrande is deemed as a systematic risk to the Chinese financial system: the authorities cannot afford to let it fail abruptly. We believe Evergrande is likely to collapse in a controlled manner.�

Evergrande said two weeks ago that its total liabilities had swelled to 1.97tn yuan ($305bn) and warned of risks of defaults on borrowings.

It issued a profit warning at the end of August in which it admitted that it could default on debt payments. The warning came days after Xu, the third richest person in China, resigned as chairman of its real estate arm.

# ? Sep 14, 2021 01:49

Smeef: Aug 15, 2003; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!; Pillbug

The latest outbreak in Xiamen is being attributed to a Singaporean man who tested positive 37 days after entering China and going through 3 weeks of quarantine and loads of testing. This seems to be the new approach to any outbreaks in China. They can�t possibly have local origins, so it must have been some foreigner bringing in a Covid sleeper cell.

# ? Sep 14, 2021 08:06

Rabelais D: Dec 11, 2012; ts'u nnu k'u k'o t'khye:
A demon doth defecate at thy door

Does anyone know how quarantine exemptions work on the mainland? I know Carrie Lam doesn't quarantine when she visits to attend important meetings etc. How many diplomats and/or very well connected people get away without quarantine? I can imagine the xiamen outbreak being connected to that more than some poor sap having an incubation period of over a month.

# ? Sep 14, 2021 09:11

Porfiriato: Jan 4, 2016

Rabelais D posted:

Does anyone know how quarantine exemptions work on the mainland? I know Carrie Lam doesn't quarantine when she visits to attend important meetings etc. How many diplomats and/or very well connected people get away without quarantine? I can imagine the xiamen outbreak being connected to that more than some poor sap having an incubation period of over a month.

There was a case that popped up in central Beijing a few months ago which naturally caused a bit of a stir. It turned out that some high level official from Zimbabwe semi-regularly flies to China for medical treatment, and his delegation had been allowed to fly directly into Beijing and skip quarantine. One of them tested subsequently positive when they arrived at their hotel. Oops!

Also the 300 or so other guests at this luxury hotel all got immediately carted away for a mandatory 3 week trip to quarantine jail. Double oops!

So it definitely happens, and on at least one occasion has come back to bite them.

# ? Sep 14, 2021 09:38

Smeef: Aug 15, 2003; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!; Pillbug

Rabelais D posted:

Does anyone know how quarantine exemptions work on the mainland? I know Carrie Lam doesn't quarantine when she visits to attend important meetings etc. How many diplomats and/or very well connected people get away without quarantine? I can imagine the xiamen outbreak being connected to that more than some poor sap having an incubation period of over a month.

I know Party officials in HK who were able to travel to Guangdong and back without quarantine on either side to attend Party 'training' events and to get vaccinated before it was possible in HK. I know rich (Chinese) kids who were able to travel to China earlier in the pandemic and skip the quarantine using exemptions for 'business purposes' despite just traveling around. I'm not especially well connected, so if I know a few people like that, chances are that it is (or has been at times) pretty widespread.

# ? Sep 14, 2021 09:41

Rabelais D: Dec 11, 2012; ts'u nnu k'u k'o t'khye:
A demon doth defecate at thy door

I'm surprised that's the case, as I thought for border officials the drive to keep your job would override the desire to kowtow to an influential person requesting exemption.

# ? Sep 14, 2021 10:59

Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

Smeef posted:

I know Party officials in HK who were able to travel to Guangdong and back without quarantine on either side to attend Party 'training' events and to get vaccinated before it was possible in HK. I know rich (Chinese) kids who were able to travel to China earlier in the pandemic and skip the quarantine using exemptions for 'business purposes' despite just travelinag around. I'm not especially well connected, so if I know a few people like that, chances are that it is (or has been at times) pretty widespread.

Link?

# ? Sep 14, 2021 13:20

Smeef: Aug 15, 2003; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!; Pillbug

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Link?

The link is me, as these are literal personal contacts, so you'll have to take my word for it. Maybe there are articles out there in Chinese about this kind of behavior, but I doubt it, given the subject matter.

# ? Sep 14, 2021 14:45

Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

Edit: misread

Cpt_Obvious fucked around with this message at 15:01 on Sep 14, 2021

# ? Sep 14, 2021 14:50

Smeef: Aug 15, 2003; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!; Pillbug

Edit: Removing since you edited your post. I'd prefer not to reveal some of this online. No, I'm not a party member. Yes, I know party members.

# ? Sep 14, 2021 15:04

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Fraser/status/1437705530986962944

# ? Sep 15, 2021 07:18

Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

Charlz Guybon posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Fraser/status/1437705530986962944

Linked tweet is gone. Is this about the Evergrande crash?

Gonna be interesting to see how the PRC handles a housing crisis. Current rumors are they are considering seizing Evergrande assets or nationalizing it entirely which is kind of bananas because of all the foreign capital invested in it.

# ? Sep 15, 2021 13:34

Smeef: Aug 15, 2003; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!; Pillbug

I have trouble believing there is a gross long-term oversupply of housing given urbanization trends that have hundreds of millions moving into cities. I recall in the past that some of the ghost towns were revisited years later and found to be populated. Obviously that's not the case here since they demolished the buildings, though. I wonder if it's inefficiencies due to internal movement controls. Even if there's demand for the housing, it can't be met if people are not allowed to migrate or if there is some other market distortion.

Also a lot of the rapidly developed housing is so goddamn lovely... my first apartment in China was so poorly insulated that I could put my hand close to the wall and feel the cold coming through. The design was hilariously bad, with the only bathroom connected to the kitchen and containing a shower area big enough for a communal bath. A friend's apartment was built just a few years later in the same area and seemed to be a 10x improvement in terms of quality.

Regardless, the real estate market in China is just nuts and seems due for a big correction. Buying is so insanely expensive, especially in T1 cities, even without considering local disposable incomes.

# ? Sep 15, 2021 14:14

Private Speech: Mar 30, 2011; I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.

Isn't having property one of the conditions for a hukou when migrating? That can't be helping any either.

Private Speech fucked around with this message at 18:37 on Sep 15, 2021

# ? Sep 15, 2021 15:48

brugroffil: Nov 30, 2015

Housing oversupply vs. chronic US housing undersupply in many areas seems like a novel problem to have

# ? Sep 15, 2021 16:03

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

China has both a dramatic housing crunch in T1 cities and a dramatic oversupply in minor towns, that's not really different from a problem now familiar to the reverse-gentrifying first world except in scale. Here's a summary: https://archive.is/OJC3b

quote:

What are the main causes for the high housing prices in China�s core cities?

China has seen decades of urbanization, where people have been flowing into the first- and second-tier core cities. In the past decade, the population of first-tier cities has grown at an average annual rate of 2.37%, indicating that the population has continued to flow into these cities, but at a reduced speed. In second-tier cities, this number is 1.91%, showing that the population has also been continuously flowing into these cities at a slightly higher speed. The population of third- and fourth-tier cities grew at an average annual rate of 0.43% and -0.49%, respectively, showing a continuous population outflow.

In the long run, the development of real estate depends on the population size, and the flow of population depends on the development of industries which causes an increase in population. Looking abroad, people have continuously moved from low-income areas to high-income areas, demonstrating the process of urbanization and metropolitanization. A large amount of high-quality public resources, especially high-end industries, are concentrated in core cities on the Chinese mainland, into which people have long been flowing.

On top of that, �hukou,� or the household registration system, links access to public resources to registered permanent residence. The base of hukou is real estate, and that further reinforces the concentration of high-income people. Under the current hukou system, public resources such as regional education and medical care are connected to one�s hukou. Residences in core cities are more than buildings for living: they are intrinsically linked with access to scarce resources and higher-quality welfare. For example, although some cities grant families living in rented apartments access to the schools in the district where they live, a lot of other requirements need to be met, and usually that means that this group of residents are only able to send their children to the schools in that district if they also have hukou.

Internationally, although the U.S. also adopts the school district system, it is only necessary for families to have residency qualifications, renting included, in the school district. Moreover, good schools in the U.S. are relatively evenly distributed, rather than being concentrated in a few metropolises.

In addition, although the population growth of Beijing and Shanghai has slowed or even fallen into negative territory in recent years, the people leaving these cities are mainly from the low - and middle-income groups, while the inflow of high-income groups is likely to continue increasing.

China�s urban-rural dual household registration system and land system cannot stimulate the effective allocation of population and land in the market. Migrant workers who cannot settle down in cities or are still migrating are unwilling to give up their rural homesteads for free. As a result, migrant workers �occupy� spaces in both urban and rural areas.

China�s urbanization strategy has long been inclined to �controlling the size of big cities and actively developing small- and medium-sized cities,� which deviates from the trend of population migration. In terms of size of cities, from 2006 to 2018, the urban population of cities with more than 10 million people increased by 46.8%, while construction land rose by only 41.7%; the population of cities with fewer than 200,000 people increased by 2.1%, and construction land rose by 22.9%.

Excessive money supply makes the growth of broad money supply faster than that of the nominal GDP, further pushing up real estate prices in first-tier cities. In China, the broad money supply (M2) has been growing at an average annual rate of 15% over the past four decades. Since 1998, the average annual compound growth rate of the new home prices reached 7.72%, nearly 8 percentage points lower than the M2 growth rate in the same period, whereas the growth of the home prices in first-tier cities basically kept pace with that of M2.

In addition to the shortage of land supply, China has incomplete household income statistics, high savings rate and high economic growth rate, which make its price-to-income ratio and rental rate of return incomparable with other countries.

China�s economy is growing fast compared to other countries across the world, which is reflected in the housing prices in its core cities. China�s household saving rate is as high as 37%, more than four times that of developed countries in Europe and American countries, which has driven up the housing price-to-income ratio. According to OECD statistics, the household savings rate refers to the proportion of reserve balance in total disposable income. China�s household savings rate is much higher than that of European and American developed countries. In 2020, the savings rate of Chinese residents was as high as 37%, while those of the U.S., Britain, France, Germany and Japan were only 8%, 1%, 9%, 16% and 4%, respectively. High savings rate means Chinese households have relatively ample cash reserves to buy residences, which in turn pushes up the price-to-income ratio to an even higher level.

Due to a number of factors the actual purchasing power of core urban residents is underestimated and house price-to-income ratio is overestimated. These include the concealing and under-reporting of income, high population mobility, people moving to a city solely for earning money but not for settling down and parents providing part of the down payment for their children.

First, due to such factors as the concealing and under-reporting of income in surveys, the average annual disposable income of households measured by the National Bureau of Statistics is not complete. In official surveys, people pay more attention to their privacy rights and high-income groups are rarely included in the survey samples. In developed economies, however, residents are required to report all their income, which is the basis on which taxes are collected. Those who intentionally conceal or under-report their incomes can be severely punished. Thus, the statistics on individual incomes in the developed economies are closer to the real incomes. Second, a large number of migrants come to core cities only to earn money but not to settle down, so the actual purchasing power of the residents in the core cities is underestimated. There are a large number of migrant workers and other non-native inhabitants in China�s cities, especially in the core cities. It is difficult for these migrants to settle down in these cities, but these low-income migrants are covered in the statistics of disposable income by the National Bureau of Statistics, resulting in an underestimation of the real purchasing power of native residents of the city. Third, according to Chinese tradition, young people�s housing purchase is often supported by what is called �six wallets� (parents and both sets of grandparents), that is, it is common for Chinese parents and even grandparents to pay a part of the down payment for their children and grandchildren.

In the future, China should promote the new housing reform and speed up the construction of a long-term mechanism for real estate with the linking of people and land, currency control and property tax as the core. With the end of large-scale development and the reduction of land transfer fees and transaction tax in the era of house stocking, the introduction of property taxes will be a general trend.

(property taxes - as opposed to land sales which have led smaller regional state banks/state govts being complicit in backing overly ambitious projects in the wrong places. Land sales provide a large share of local govt revenue in China)

Anyway the Evergrande saga will be an interesting one. Chinese media repeatedly assured investors earlier this year that the great deleveraging campaign would not drive developers into inoperability - a smooth landing rather than a bank run.

e: nothing that sounds good

quote:

But there are few willing takers. Evergrande�s latest settlement offer to investors in its wealth management projects showed us why: Its inventory quality is really poor. To redeem its investors, apartments were offered at 28% discount to their market value, and parking lots were given away at a 52% discount, according to Caixin, the influential local financial media outlet.

That�s because most of Evergrande�s projects are not prime real estate. As of 2020, 57% and 31% of its land acquisitions were in Tier-3 and weak Tier-2 cities, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. With China�s new home price gains rapidly evaporating and home sales slumping, Evergrande will have an even tougher time moving its inventory. As of June, it was already taking the developer over 3.5 years to sell unfinished projects. Its future will be dimmer.

Against this shaky warehouse are a lot of bills to pay. While much focus has been placed on Evergrande�s bank loans and bond issues, the developer also owes billions of dollars to its suppliers, as well as apartment buyers. (It has benefited from a practice common in China called pre-sales: Consumers pay the full price of homes before they are built, handing over a lump sum and their mortgage borrowings.)

On top of this, Evergrande has sold wealth management products to its employees, suppliers and apartment buyers over the years. We don�t know how much is at stake � it was essentially off-balance-sheet shadow banking, which means its actual debt could be much greater. About 70,000 retail investors were tied up in these products, according to a REDD report.

Consider what would happen if Evergrande were to take its inventory to the open marketplace. A 40% haircut is a fairly conservative estimate. So if China auctioned off its unfinished projects, Evergrande�s entire equity would be wiped out. Beijing might just have to come up with a partial bailout to repay its small business and retail creditors. Defaulting on the middle class is not a palatable solution for a government intent on pushing its common prosperity doctrine.

ronya fucked around with this message at 18:49 on Sep 15, 2021

# ? Sep 15, 2021 17:29

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brugroffil posted:

Housing oversupply vs. chronic US housing undersupply in many areas seems like a novel problem to have

nah that's basically the same as the US. we have tons of cheap housing available, just 99% of it is nowhere anyone would want to live

# ? Sep 15, 2021 17:42

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# ? Jun 10, 2024 08:35

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ronya posted:

China has both a dramatic housing crunch in T1 cities and a dramatic oversupply in minor towns, that's not really different from a problem now familiar to the reverse-gentrifying first world except in scale. Here's a summary: https://archive.is/OJC3b

(property taxes - as opposed to land sales which have led smaller regional state banks/state govts being complicit in backing overly ambitious projects in the wrong places. Land sales provide a large share of local govt revenue in China)

Anyway the Evergrande saga will be an interesting one. Chinese media repeatedly assured investors earlier this year that the great deleveraging campaign would not drive developers into inoperability - a smooth landing rather than a bank run.

e: nothing that sounds good

The "pre-sale housing" thing is also how new construction of homes/apartments are done in Taiwan as well. I've been looking at buying one to eventually move into - each company had slightly different figures, but usually you would put a down payment of 10-12%, and then when by the time construction would be done (1-3 years) 25-33% would be paid and the rest is the mortgage. Just like in China, alot of these places are being bought up and sitting on them to eventually flip for a higher price because housing prices can only go up (and in Taiwan, they have. Imagine if the 2007 bubble never popped here.) I was looking at several apartments in buildings built over the past 10-15 years - and for some of them, no one had ever lived in them since the building opened. Just sitting and waiting for a greater fool, because after 10 years the price has doubled in some of them. And this isn't even Taipei, where it is worse.

# ? Sep 16, 2021 02:10

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