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Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

"From what can be seen, there do appear to be some broad similarities between this weapon and the ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoy (MALD). "

gunship mafia is malding

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Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

CN CREW-VESSEL posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AECes9N9Wac

c ~9:30 "The myth of the Tiger doesn't start during the war, it's started by NATO during the 1960's when they have to prove that less amount of good AFVs can somehow offset large amounts of less good AFVs"

So it's a historical trend to talk up the strength of the enemies you have defeated, because after all, if you've defeated them then the mightier they were, the mightier you must be. But the US has really taken this concept and gone hog wild with it.


CN CREW-VESSEL posted:

Since I read Chinese Characteristics, I’m just amused by it. Things literally have reverted back to Boxer Rebellion caricatures of the Orient.

It's pretty funny how badly the west underestimates the Chinese because it flatly refuses to see them as people.

Orange Devil has issued a correction as of 11:56 on May 11, 2024

Pomeroy
Apr 20, 2020

Flournival Dixon posted:

Being inherently sinophobic is kinda a part of the standard western intellectual toolkit at this point. I generally assume until proven otherwise that everyone in the world who speaks english as a first language probably has some hilarious stupid ideas about the perfidious chinese bouncing around their head, especially if it's someone who thinks that they have any kind of political knowledge about anything.

Makes me miss my grandfather. Born in the 20s, never was a radical, spent his life on the left flank of the Republican party, but picked up enough materialism by osmosis to try to get me to learn Mandarin, on the basis that the PRC was going to eat America's lunch when push came to shove, and that their victory would be for the best.

Muscle Tracer
Feb 23, 2007

Medals only weigh one down.

Nix Panicus posted:

Some cultures just incentivize people to lie to their superiors as a matter of course, and that is why they will lose any substantial conflict. It can't be helped, some cultures are just rotten.

Now to take a big sip of coffee and look up the last Pentagon audit. I love to see accountability

This is the great thing about an economy based entirely on getting the maximum number of people to click on your website: numbers CAN'T lie!

Doktor Avalanche
Dec 30, 2008

pyf is far from the golden times of the dickpreg guy posting about loony tankies, let them have a bit of sinophobic ridiculousness

Soapy_Bumslap
Jun 19, 2013

We're gonna need a bigger chode
Grimey Drawer
A younger me would be frustrated and angry at the response to "they literally have way more soldiers, way more equipment, and way more capacity to make equipment" is met with "lol, lmao" but current me just considers it a wonderful seasoning for the enormous humble pie that's on the way

Grimnarsson
Sep 4, 2018

Gripweed posted:

to be only slightly less dismissive, let me expand on this slightly

both economic performance and military performance hinge on a lot of coordination and communication expertises. china has a lot of problems with these expertises. you can see this in things like the chinese GDP constantly being revised downward from publicly released numbers because there is a giant, overriding problem with communication in China: it is outright incentivized to lie to your superiors in many cases, both civilian and state. there are more effects. but frankly, what i am talking about is so fundamental to understanding the situation that i genuinely mistook your position as a low-effort troll. the edit convinced me otherwise. at any rate, though, i'll wait until someone actually gives a considered, nuanced explanation as to why china is rising and will take the crown of the world this time, for serious bro, before i devote any more words to the topic.

The "it is outright incentivised to lie" reminds me of a phenomenon I recall seeing in a bunch of Adam Curtis' documentaries, that a government or institution tries to manage the economy or whatever it does by rationally analysing its performance statistics, examples being the economy of the USSR under Stalin, the way McNamara managed the war in Vietnam, and managing public institutions in Britain under Tony Blair's 'New Labour' government. It always resulted in people within those systems coming up with clever ways to game the system sometimes with baffling results that aren't readily apparent. And while that might be used as criticism toward China or socialism or planned economy, it probably happens in the West just as much, especially in corporations. After all, the 'New Labour' did this as part of its right-ward turn towards neo-liberalism to, from what I understand, simulate the free-market in public institutions.

This is the New Labour stuff at the timestamp.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miXeWdrWK-s&t=2384s

Who knows how much of that kind of stuff is going on in the pentagon and the western MIC in general.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
we literally had a global pandemic that ended up killing millions not five years ago and the collective response from the western ruling class was to lie their asses off to justify doing nothing until reality forced them to halfass a response that was then rolled back as soon as possible

CN CREW-VESSEL
Feb 1, 2024

敌人磨刀我们也磨刀

Cerebral Bore posted:

we literally had a global pandemic that ended up killing millions not five years ago and the collective response from the western ruling class was to lie their asses off to justify doing nothing until reality forced them to halfass a response that was then rolled back as soon as possible

Grimnarsson
Sep 4, 2018
"Died with, not of, COVID" kinda like that?

gimme the GOD DAMN candy
Jul 1, 2007
the west instantly stopped caring about covid once it became clear that only poor people die from it.

Grimnarsson
Sep 4, 2018
In the series "The Wire" there was that plot line where the cops knew there was an abandoned apartment building, or a whole block, that had a huge number of murder victims hidden inside but to discover them would make the murder statistic for that particular year look bad so they didn't want to officially "find" them.

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.
The emphatic kicking and screaming about China is because the ruling class of America can't stand that not only will they be knocked off their perch, they're gonna get knocked off by non-whites. The Russians at least had the decency to be white Europeans (after a fashion).

Expect them to try and genocide their way out of it.


Which is of concern to me in particular because heh heh, I'm in danger. They lose a carrier = I'm going to a camp or getting lynched in the street. I'm not even Chinese but I don't expect them to look further than the last name and eyes.

Justin Tyme
Feb 22, 2011


The perfidious Chinese military are incentivized to lie, unlike their American military counterparts, who would never ever lie about, say, the amount of deadlined LMTVs or general motorpool readiness

Grimnarsson
Sep 4, 2018

skooma512 posted:

The emphatic kicking and screaming about China is because the ruling class of America can't stand that not only will they be knocked off their perch, they're gonna get knocked off by non-whites. The Russians at least had the decency to be white Europeans (after a fashion).


dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


Grimnarsson posted:

The "it is outright incentivised to lie" reminds me of a phenomenon I recall seeing in a bunch of Adam Curtis' documentaries, that a government or institution tries to manage the economy or whatever it does by rationally analysing its performance statistics, examples being the economy of the USSR under Stalin, the way McNamara managed the war in Vietnam, and managing public institutions in Britain under Tony Blair's 'New Labour' government

jesus christ, adam curtis

yeah, three examples that have absolutely nothing to do with each other. Can't speak for the latter, have an idea of McNamara's thought on economic organization, but oh I can definitely can talk about the first

Explicit, deliberate lying about production statistics or fabricating data in the USSR or China was a heavy sentence: it did happen, but it was a rare outlier. GOSPLAN could take a bit of time but it would definitely find out because some bureaucrat in 2200km from Moscow saying that the mine they are overseeing definitely doubled the quota is an information that positively changes a whole loving deal of planning. If all that ore is simply made up, well, it is a whole lot of things not loving happening now and somebody is responsible for that.

What usually happened was the communication-logistical problem, which got bundled with the above. With high level of planning and centralization, information velocity is a pretty important factor, and this predates portable electronic calculation. Now imagine that this is also the Soviet Union. GOSPLAN has to take account of the entire aggregate production factor of the whole place periodically, and needs as much confirmation in every step of the way as possible to keep a reasonably realistic track of things to direct it from the highmost level. Realistically, this meant a loving huge communication delay, and this delay could cause severe problems.

So local planners would be flexible. If one in city A was in need of soap and checking with the recent reports saw that the relatively nearby city B would be receiving a lot and was already sitting in tons of it, instead of sending out to GOSPLAN and going "hey we are missing soap, since there's already a train bringing some in the way to B which doesn't need it, can we have it?" and then have to wait for a while, they would go straight to the other planner and report the situation and reorganize themselves, then send a telegraph informing the adjustment.

Of course, what also happened was bureaucrats acting on supposition instead of actually checking the goddamn reports, which was a recurring problem caused by the informational deficit problem. Sure, it prepared production, but doing things by guessing meant planning revisions and revisions meant even greater delays. All of that got condensed into an "incentive to lie" myth against the free market, but it's pretty different than that

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
Coordinating your economy to best serve the needs of the people is complicated.

Capitalism doesn't have that problem because it doesn't bother to try.

Grimnarsson
Sep 4, 2018

dead gay comedy forums posted:

jesus christ, adam curtis

yeah, three examples that have absolutely nothing to do with each other. Can't speak for the latter, have an idea of McNamara's thought on economic organization,

The Vietnam example that I had in mind was a veteran telling a story how they killed an elderly couple at some field, and how as the incident was reported "upwards" that elderly couple transformed into a squad of heavily armed insurgents. That's because the US couldn't measure success in that war by traditional metrics like taking territory, defeating enemy armies, taking their capitol. They figured that in order to win you should identify key statistics of previously won wars and then aim at those goals: bombs dropped, enemies killed. But at every stage there was an incentive to massage those numbers, ever more so as they became more detached from what was actually going on in the field.

Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1789198100189299059

Clip-On Fedora
Feb 20, 2011

gimme the GOD drat candy posted:

the west instantly stopped caring about covid once the 2020 elections were over.

Grimnarsson
Sep 4, 2018
"Vietnamisation" might have been a success had it been implemented earlier, but it was a total failure in Afghanistan, and for Ukraine it's a no-starter.

CN CREW-VESSEL
Feb 1, 2024

敌人磨刀我们也磨刀

Grimnarsson posted:

"Vietnamisation" might have been a success had it been implemented earlier, but it was a total failure in Afghanistan, and for Ukraine it's a no-starter.

The French had already created the ARVN 20 years earlier. How much time did the Americans need?

The answer is that there was never a solidified idea of a South Vietnamese nation, so building any sort of national army was a non-starter.

TeenageArchipelago
Jul 23, 2013



Ignoring that this is all bullshit and my question is pointless because the data is a lie:

Does the cruise missile loss data include the cruise missiles that successfully hit targets?

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

TeenageArchipelago posted:

Ignoring that this is all bullshit and my question is pointless because the data is a lie:

Does the cruise missile loss data include the cruise missiles that successfully hit targets?

um actually i think you'll find that 120% of all cruise missiles are shot down and the idea that one could hit its target is just russian disinformation

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

Cerebral Bore posted:

we literally had a global pandemic that ended up killing millions not five years ago and the collective response from the western ruling class was to lie their asses off to justify doing nothing until reality forced them to halfass a response that was then rolled back as soon as possible

And in an incredible case of projection, they just assume that China is still hiding millions of deaths from covid despite the total lack of evidence.

Flournival Dixon
Jan 29, 2024
lmfao 349 planes and half a million soldiers

This poo poo is truly just for enforcing alignment to obviously fake stuff at this point, nobody who gives a poo poo about what's true in material reality could ever buy this poo poo.

Complications
Jun 19, 2014

As with most official wartime estimates just divide everything by 10 and you'll have an okayish set of numbers.

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

TeenageArchipelago posted:

Ignoring that this is all bullshit and my question is pointless because the data is a lie:

Tbh it's not entirely bullshit, in that there's a pretty decent chance Ukraine is reporting their own losses as Russia's. So the numbers might be real in a certain sense.

Well looking at the boat and submarine numbers, those could actually be Russian losses, maybe

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

Flournival Dixon posted:

lmfao 349 planes and half a million soldiers

This poo poo is truly just for enforcing alignment to obviously fake stuff at this point, nobody who gives a poo poo about what's true in material reality could ever buy this poo poo.

If you look at the replies, people still believe it. They believe it because they want to, that's the power of liberalism.

Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

The leak last year revealed that the US government was using OSINT numbers for Ukraine without any kind of internal validation

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

CN CREW-VESSEL posted:

The French had already created the ARVN 20 years earlier. How much time did the Americans need?

The answer is that there was never a solidified idea of a South Vietnamese nation, so building any sort of national army was a non-starter.

It really seems to have only worked out in South Korea cause of all mass murder of civilians before and during the war and letting a bunch of losers that missed being a Japanese colony run the show to this very day

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer
considering Russia is still on its unofficial offensive right now, and i keep seeing videos and photos full of tanks, those tank losses imply Russia has infinite tanks and if i was NATO i would be worried

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

I still laugh thinking about they include fuel tanks because they tried counting them under tank kills

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

KomradeX posted:

I still laugh thinking about they include fuel tanks because they tried counting them under tank kills

It's a tank.

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Orange Devil posted:

It's a tank.

Literally what they said when some one realized there had been no way they'd killed 500 tanks in one day

Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

Staking out an aquarium for a slow news day

StashAugustine
Mar 24, 2013

Do not trust in hope- it will betray you! Only faith and hatred sustain.

Nix Panicus posted:

The leak last year revealed that the US government was using OSINT numbers for Ukraine without any kind of internal validation

I really go back and forth on whether the state department is just cynically feeding Ukraine into the grinder or they're genuinely dumb or delusional enough to think they could win

Complications
Jun 19, 2014

StashAugustine posted:

I really go back and forth on whether the state department is just cynically feeding Ukraine into the grinder or they're genuinely dumb or delusional enough to think they could win

Both. The political appointees that get swapped out every couple years and intend to go NGO executive board/lobbyist are delusional while the ice cold careerist lizard people are doing it cynically.

fits my needs
Jan 1, 2011

Grimey Drawer
https://x.com/thehill/status/1789439357192958080

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KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011


Its spaceSHIPS it should obviously be the Navy.

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