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Hoodwinker
Nov 7, 2005

Rex-Goliath posted:

I intensely dislike how *every* retirement calculator ignores social security by default. It feels like a conspiracy to further delegitimize it and normalize the idea that it will be taken away.
Yeah, seriously. When I helped my parents put together a roadmap for their retirement withdrawal, they were surprised to find they had almost double effective assets when treating SS like an annuity with value equal to 25x their annual payout. SS is a loving huge chunk of change if you pay into it your whole life.

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Xguard86
Nov 22, 2004

"You don't understand his pain. Everywhere he goes he sees women working, wearing pants, speaking in gatherings, voting. Surely they will burn in the white hot flames of Hell"
personal capital has a pretty good retirement planner that even includes social security. You can also run scenarios and save them which is handy for comparing options.

gvibes
Jan 18, 2010

Leading us to the promised land (i.e., one tournament win in five years)
My income is increasing too rapidly to meet the savings goals set forth in various places, please send help.

Hoodwinker
Nov 7, 2005

gvibes posted:

My income is increasing too rapidly to meet the savings goals set forth in various places, please send help.
Guillotine.

EAT FASTER!!!!!!
Sep 21, 2002

Legendary.


:hampants::hampants::hampants:
Actually, I think you'll find if you increase your savings rate double the proportion of increase in pay you should quite readily make and exceed these goalposts HTH.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:

Actually, I think you'll find if you increase your savings rate double the proportion of increase in pay you should quite readily make and exceed these goalposts HTH.

so every time you get a raise, you take an effective pay cut to save twice the value of your raise?

Hoodwinker posted:

Yeah, seriously. When I helped my parents put together a roadmap for their retirement withdrawal, they were surprised to find they had almost double effective assets when treating SS like an annuity with value equal to 25x their annual payout. SS is a loving huge chunk of change if you pay into it your whole life.

Except you can't leave your social security income to your kids. If your retirement planning includes trying to create an inheritance for your children, you have to treat SS separately from inheritable assets.

Dum Cumpster
Sep 12, 2003

*pozes your neghole*
I have 5 x my income at 25 saved :unsmith:

Hoodwinker
Nov 7, 2005

Leperflesh posted:

Except you can't leave your social security income to your kids. If your retirement planning includes trying to create an inheritance for your children, you have to treat SS separately from inheritable assets.
This doesn't require any special accounting except for the part where the actual SS income payments aren't something that can be inherited. They're planning on withdrawing only the average amount they will need on a given year, and since SS income is "mandatory" withdrawal where Roth accounts don't require this, from an accounting standpoint they leave the same amount of non-SS assets whether or not SS could technically be inherited (though obviously, it can't).

My point is that you don't really need to treat it differently from an asset withdrawal standpoint.

Mu Zeta
Oct 17, 2002

Me crush ass to dust

You shouldn't be allowed to create an inheritance for your children and all the money should go to the uber state. Papa America will take care of your kids.

Michael Transactions
Nov 11, 2013

Dum Cumpster posted:

I have 5 x my income at 25 saved :unsmith:

Eat chain

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog

EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:

Actually, I think you'll find if you increase your savings rate double the proportion of increase in pay you should quite readily make and exceed these goalposts HTH.

I think what EAT FASTER is saying is that you should be able to reach "2x Annual Salary" a lot faster if your salary doubles, even if your "2x Annual Salary" is now twice as large a number.

Let's say you make $50k a year and you save $10k because your annual living expenses are $40k. At 4% growth, it'll take 8.6 years to have $100k saved (double your income)

Let's say you make $100k a year and you save $60k because your annual living expenses are still $40k. *. At 4% growth, it'll take 3.2 years to have $200k saved (double your income)

*Obviously this is the tricky part because when your income goes up, your living expense have the darndest habit of doing the same

Girbot
Jan 13, 2009

GoGoGadgetChris posted:

*Obviously this is the tricky part because when your income goes up, your living expense have the darndest habit of doing the same

Gotta git dat M2 Competition!

BlackMK4
Aug 23, 2006

wat.
Megamarm

Girbot posted:

Gotta git dat M2 Competition!

yea, he could have had two E90 M3s

Dum Cumpster
Sep 12, 2003

*pozes your neghole*

Girbot posted:

Gotta git dat M2 Competition!

License plate: THERAPY

EAT FASTER!!!!!!
Sep 21, 2002

Legendary.


:hampants::hampants::hampants:
Is it here yet Chris?! I pick up my spectacularly-BWM-new-car today!

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog

EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:

Is it here yet Chris?! I pick up my spectacularly-BWM-new-car today!

I really appreciate when people ask me about it!!



At some point tomorrow it will start the Panama Canal process, and then start the Pacific Coast journey up to Tacoma, WA. Then it's trucked to Beaverton, OR and hopefully in my mitts by December 15th!

Duckman2008
Jan 6, 2010

TFW you see Flyers goaltending.
Grimey Drawer

Dum Cumpster posted:

I have 5 x my income at 25 saved :unsmith:

When people complain to me about not being able to save enough, I will let them know that forums poster Dum Cumpster has managed to save 5 x his/her income by 25, therefore you can do it too.


(On a serious Note congrats).

Residency Evil
Jul 28, 2003

4/5 godo... Schumi
I wonder who else notices that there's a large overlap of posters between the Long-Term Investing thread, the BWM thread, and AI.

:ohdear:

baquerd
Jul 2, 2007

by FactsAreUseless

Dum Cumpster posted:

I have 5 x my income at 25 saved :unsmith:

The key though is what percentage of your expected permanent expenditures does 5x your current income represent? If you're spending 3% of your savings annually, you're ready to FIRE. If you're spending 40% of your savings per year because your income is low (and e.g. because you got some big windfall along the way) and/or you can't live at home with no expenses forever, it's an apples to oranges comparison.

Like everyone is saying, it's a matter of expenses, not income.

Hoodwinker
Nov 7, 2005

I got a lot of poo poo for thinking I came up with something very clever in this very thread that didn't just do a calculation based off of expenses so I'm pretty keen on remembering that lesson. Literally the only thing that matters is what your expenses will be in retirement and whether or not your assets will allow you to sustain those expenses for either a) ideally indefinitely or b) until you die.

SpelledBackwards
Jan 7, 2001

I found this image on the Internet, perhaps you've heard of it? It's been around for a while I hear.

Until the spectre of unaffordable, spiralling healthcare costs dash all your plans against the rocks.

Mao Zedong Thot
Oct 16, 2008


Dum Cumpster posted:

I have 5 x my income at 25 saved :unsmith:

I have 5x (my income at 25) saved :unsmith:

Dum Cumpster
Sep 12, 2003

*pozes your neghole*

Duckman2008 posted:

When people complain to me about not being able to save enough, I will let them know that forums poster Dum Cumpster has managed to save 5 x his/her income by 25, therefore you can do it too.


(On a serious Note congrats).

Uh, I'm currently 35. You guys are charitable in your reading of my post.

Wish I was 25 :corsair:

Dum Cumpster fucked around with this message at 01:21 on Nov 30, 2018

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog

Mao Zedong Thot and also Dum Cumpster posted:

I have 5x (my income at 25) saved :unsmith:


(This is the joke they were making!!)

GoGoGadgetChris fucked around with this message at 01:56 on Nov 30, 2018

Girbot
Jan 13, 2009
I want to live off dividends forever. Immortality or bust!

Sundae
Dec 1, 2005
My death will pay dividends to the world forever.

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Firecalc or cfiresim (free) or OnTrajectory (cheap) for all of your modeling needs.


All of the other calculators are simple in a way that's just going to get people into trouble. I like with OnTrajectory that you can take a stab at thinking through how big life events might affect earnings (ie: 1 baby, 2 babies, 1 person unemployed for a long time, etc) and then run those scenarios to see how hosed/not hosed you might be.

Most of the online calculators just assume that you make bingo bongo bucks and it goes up up UP and your expenses are whatever or never change, which is crazytown.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

GoGoGadgetChris posted:

All these calculations are rear end backwards. Get yourself a financial calculator and figure it out the easier way, with a tangible goal at the end rather than an abstract "are you on track for Enough"

Figure out how much money you want at retirement (the Future Value)
Figure out how many years until you want to retire (the Term)
Figure out a reasonable estimate of inflation adjusted return (the Rate, just use like 5% probably)
Figure out how much you have saved already (the Present Value)

Solve for The Payment (how much you should save per year to meet your actual goals)

You can do this in Excel right now in seconds. =pmt(

And it'll walk you through the rest.

just for the record the average American is dumb as a loving sack of hammers and will not be able to do this

however: I make X dollars per year times Y constant is probably within 80% of people's capabilities

Mu Zeta
Oct 17, 2002

Me crush ass to dust

I can only afford to max my IRA each year so I'm just going to do that for the foreseeable future and hope for the best. The truth is even if they increased the yearly limit to like $12,000 I wouldn't be able to do that. But I'm glad that I'm far ahead of the average american who has nothing in retirement funds.

thechosenone
Mar 21, 2009
I just got a Thrift Savings Plan. If I was planning retirement for 62 (currently 24), what funds should I invest in? My current contributions are being put into the 2050 fund by default. I make around $30,000 gross a year, but I am currently living with parents so I figure now is the best time to put as much savings away as I can, so what level of Contribution should I do? Just max it out?

thechosenone fucked around with this message at 22:06 on Dec 1, 2018

Hoodwinker
Nov 7, 2005

thechosenone posted:

I just got a Thrift Savings Plan. If I was planning retirement for 62 (currently 24), what funds should I invest in? My current contributions are being put into the 2050 fund by default. I make around $30,000 gross a year, but I am currently living with parents so I figure now is the best time to put as much savings away as I can, so what level of Contribution should I do? Just max it out?
If there's a 2055 fund, put it into that. If you can max it out, do that.

air-
Sep 24, 2007

Who will win the greatest battle of them all?

thechosenone posted:

I just got a Thrift Savings Plan. If I was planning retirement for 62 (currently 24), what funds should I invest in? My current contributions are being put into the 2050 fund by default. I make around $30,000 gross a year, but I am currently living with parents so I figure now is the best time to put as much savings away as I can, so what level of Contribution should I do? Just max it out?

You're probably gonna have your contributions matched so max out up to whatever is matched.

The lifecycle funds are too conservative for me and I use this allocation:
70% C
10% S
10% I
10% G

brugroffil
Nov 30, 2015


70% crypto :eyepop:

Hoodwinker
Nov 7, 2005

air- posted:

You're probably gonna have your contributions matched so max out up to whatever is matched.

The lifecycle funds are too conservative for me and I use this allocation:
70% C
10% S
10% I
10% G
Why G over F? Not that the F Fund is any good but I'm just curious.

air-
Sep 24, 2007

Who will win the greatest battle of them all?

Hoodwinker posted:

Why G over F? Not that the F Fund is any good but I'm just curious.

I'm already exposed to bonds through my 2055 target fund at Vanguard, so I figure it's like getting a free lunch. And there's way more on this thread.

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog
:allears: I love our weird cousin the Stockpicking Thread

EugeneJ posted:

The rich sell the market to the poor and get rich off the fees/commissions

Even if the market crashed tomorrow and their clients lost half their portfolio, the fees remain the same and the rich keep collecting them

See: Insurance brokers and Investment brokers

The worst thing either of the above professions wants is for a client to pull out, which is why when the market takes a downturn you see the "WE KNOW THIS IS A WORRYING TIME! BUT KEEP YOUR MONEY INVESTED, IT'S SMART!" emails get sent out to clients en masse

Mu Zeta
Oct 17, 2002

Me crush ass to dust

It's interesting how some people in that thread have been going nuts over soybeans or something

totalnewbie
Nov 13, 2005

I was born and raised in China, lived in Japan, and now hold a US passport.

I am wrong in every way, all the damn time.

Ask me about my tattoos.

EugeneJ posted:

The rich sell the market to the poor and get rich off the fees/commissions

Even if the market crashed tomorrow and their clients lost half their portfolio, the fees remain the same and the rich keep collecting them

See: Insurance brokers and Investment brokers

The worst thing either of the above professions wants is for a client to pull out, which is why when the market takes a downturn you see the "WE KNOW THIS IS A WORRYING TIME! BUT KEEP YOUR MONEY INVESTED, IT'S SMART!" emails get sent out to clients en masse

Yes, yes, and yes. Scum, they are.

...and now you've missed the point completely.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

They're talking about those ghouls who charge clients 3% for "financial services" who beg their clients not to pull out of the market (which they intentionally conflate with firing them and taking your money elsewhere), not people with their retirement in low-cost index funds.

And the soybeans thing is just a tracking point for the effects of tariffs, and mostly a joke at that.

With a couple of notable exceptions, everyone in that thread has most of their money in the same low-cost index funds we do.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 05:09 on Dec 3, 2018

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crazypeltast52
May 5, 2010



I try to steer anyone just starting out over to this thread instead, but then if they insist on being a degenerate gambler like the rest of us in that thread, you only yolo once if that’s what the redditors are saying these days?

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