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Sandwolf posted:
I'm having a tough time stomaching a Hal vote. I simply don't see him playing Day 1 like he did if Amni was his partner. Like I said upthread, I really get the feeling that Hal is clear. IA is obviously clear, and I haven't seen Grandicap's name much so I wanted to explain my thought process on him a little more clearly here since it is mostly based on feeling. D1 he got into it with Quid: Grandicap posted:It's like 20 minutes into d1, did you expect him to light the alignment beacon up to summon the aid of Gondor? Grandicap posted:No, I was saying of course he's unreadable. there hasn't been enough content for it to be otherwise. It's the classic "joke phase, but what if...?" No vote or anything, but he's doing exactly what he accuses quid of doing. D2 he "forgot" Keane was dead, which is likely just a mistake but it could be scum misdirection or just lazy. He also felt really solid that Sandwolf refusing to hammer was Townish, even putting Sandwolf in "Definitely Town" and that IA hammering was Scummy. Sure, this is a fair opinion, but it's worth rexamining now that we know IA is town. It feels like Grand was setting up to lunch IA, and then on a town flip turn around and say "well it wasn't IA it must be Sand". I'd really like to hear some more input on why it might be Hal, he seems rock-solid town to me.
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Dec 20, 2020 01:55
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The reason Sandwolf thinks that is because he’s running out of people to fake accuse
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Dec 20, 2020 02:05
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Hal Incandenza posted:The reason Sandwolf thinks that is because he’s running out of people to fake accuse walk me through the thought process to make me scum
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Dec 20, 2020 02:43
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Sandwolf posted:walk me through the thought process to make me scum Well to be fair there isn’t a lot to go on. Did not vote Amni... can’t be IA... Spokes self vote makes me lean town... I guess it could also be grandi but your trying to make it out to be me is making me very suspicious!
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Dec 20, 2020 02:48
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Hal Incandenza posted:Well to be fair there isn’t a lot to go on. so it's scummy that I'm pointing a finger at all or scummy that I'm pointing a finger at you? I could maybe see Grandi too but the way you've reacted to very little pressure is unnerving me
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Dec 20, 2020 02:52
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Sandwolf posted:so it's scummy that I'm pointing a finger at all or scummy that I'm pointing a finger at you? Oh? By calling you scummy? I don’t feel like I’m reacting all that much at all?
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Dec 20, 2020 03:25
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Hal Incandenza posted:Oh Wolfie, it’s you isn’t it Hal Incandenza posted:The reason Sandwolf thinks that is because he’s running out of people to fake accuse Omg look at this insane reaction from me!!!
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Dec 20, 2020 03:26
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I may self vote because I can’t handle all this pressure ahhhhhhh
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Dec 20, 2020 03:28
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Hal Incandenza posted:I may self vote because I can’t handle all this pressure ahhhhhhh ahaha more like the scale of the reaction, not the intensity (but you are making me laugh)
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Dec 20, 2020 03:29
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Maybe I'm giving too much credit to Hal's D1 play (or I'm not suspecting Sandwolf enough) but I really think we're glazing over Grandi, who just popped up to try to move the vote to another target when IA was cleared and then dipped back out when suspicion was elsewhere. I might just be sticking to my priors too long, but I haven't seen any information that's convincing me to be less suspicious of Grandi and it's weird to me that nobody else is mentioning him. Here's the series of posts from D2, where in the span of a few posts he goes from voting Sandwolf to saying he's townish to saying he's definitely town. Grandicap posted:Ok, who of the not on the turbo was it? I'm leaning Sandwolf. Grandicap posted:I disagree that you are a good choice Sandwolf. Not hammering there is townie AF, scum would have seen the writing on the wall. Grandicap posted:OK, for me the almost assuredly town list looks like this (TOWN CORE?) We can rule out that they're scum partners, obviously, but the most generous possible interpretation I can find is that Grand publicly flip-flopped real quick on somebody without explaining why (steak pointed this out as well). My hunch is that Grand hasn't posted recently because he doesn't want to flip *back* and say he thinks sand is scum, but he also doesn't want to have to defend him, even though he looks like the much guiltier party between Sand and Hal. I think Grandi wants to hang back today, not commit to too much, and then go into Day 4 picking whoever's the easier target. I'm open to a case from Sand on Hal, I'm open to a case from IA on anybody, I'll listen to whatever. I'm not going to tunnel Grand at the expense of scumhunting elsewhere, especially with less than 24 hours left in the day, but I don't want him to skate by without (hopefully) giving a little more detail on his decisions.
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Dec 20, 2020 08:27
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Your points are well taken spokes. I am ok with ##vote grandi
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Dec 20, 2020 15:35
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Umm, they are incorrect points. My Sandwolf read changed after I reassessed the situation. I still feel pretty strongly that he is town, in fact, my List of alignments still lines up with what I think: Grandicap posted:OK, for me the almost assuredly town list looks like this (TOWN CORE?) The post you quoted was the explanation: Grandicap posted:I disagree that you are a good choice Sandwolf. Not hammering there is townie AF, scum would have seen the writing on the wall. And I also followed it up with better thought process here. (Linked because too many inline quotes to make it a good quote).
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Dec 20, 2020 16:52
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Like reevaluating opinions isn't scummy. I thought one thing and then thought another. Hell, with additional information, I could think a third thing.
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Dec 20, 2020 16:53
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Since it’s Grandi’s suspicion of me that’s up for debate right now, I felt his reading of me was very consistent and towny :/ I didn’t really see the flip flop that Spokes is pointing to. Hal voting Grandi off such a weak case makes me whanna do Hal toooo
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Dec 20, 2020 17:10
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I think it's between Hal or Grandi, if everyone else alive collectively feels Scumwolf is Townwolf. Leaning Hal
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Dec 20, 2020 17:13
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I retract my previous leaning Hal and have good town feel for Hal
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Dec 20, 2020 17:18
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Hal Incandenza posted:This is like, awful. Legitimate vote against amni by Hal that contributed to his dunking.
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Dec 20, 2020 17:20
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Grandi I think your explanation is logical, it was just such a quick and substantial 180 from your initial read of Sandwolf as suspicious (a few posts earlier) that I was looking for more information on the thought that went into that. I also got the feeling you were actively avoiding the thread yesterday when Hal and Sandwolf were in opposition. Thats obviously not Hard Evidence but it definitely factors into you remaining at the top of my list
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Dec 20, 2020 17:23
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Idle Amalgam posted:Legitimate vote against amni by Hal that contributed to his dunking. This is pretty much what I’ve put my whole Hal Town feeling on, so I’m glad someone else is seeing it as important lol
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Dec 20, 2020 17:24
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Grandicap posted:All aboard the Polar Express. Starts the first turbo vote on Amni, could be scum ribbing. Grandicap posted:Amni is my favorite. However, this comment was made after the initial turbo on Amni defused and had restarted. Ample time to have unvoted and was around the thread more or less with 4 hour intervals on that game day barring the leap between morning and afternoon according to time stamps. I just don't see a fellow scum Grandi letting their first post of the game, sink their fellow scummate when they could have retained a greater chance of survival and control, likely ending the game had Amni not flipped. So I don't buy Grandi for scum, unless you all also believe he wanted to make his odds of winning that much harder.
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Dec 20, 2020 17:26
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So it's sandwolf or spokes imo. That meta about amni turbo from spokes is curious with 3 games reading or not. It does sound like the time of info that amni would communicate to a scum in private communications. However, I like less that Sand tried to defend himself with the tid-bit about scum chatting it up in private communications. This is a bit of mod meta because I've played this game several times and maybe I already said this in thread, maybe not... but RF in past has left it to the scum to coordinate their own private communications and doesn't send out PMs for the vanillas. yes, I recall saying this now... but yeah, I definitely made  face at:Sandwolf posted:This is not a strong counter argument but if Amni and I were scum we definitely would be talking up a loving storm in our private chat and not cheekily winking at the thread. Today’s not LYLO right? It struck me as odd then and reading it now still pings me.
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Dec 20, 2020 17:29
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Idle Amalgam posted:So it's sandwolf or spokes imo. It does sound like the type* of info that amni would communicate to a scum in private communications.
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Dec 20, 2020 17:30
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Hmmm so spokes basically just gave up earlier when he self voted because he was deflated from losing his scum buddy so early?
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Dec 20, 2020 17:32
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Spokes posted:Grandi I think your explanation is logical, it was just such a quick and substantial 180 from your initial read of Sandwolf as suspicious (a few posts earlier) that I was looking for more information on the thought that went into that. I also got the feeling you were actively avoiding the thread yesterday when Hal and Sandwolf were in opposition. Thats obviously not Hard Evidence but it definitely factors into you remaining at the top of my list This is a weird conclusion to arrive at I feel.
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Dec 20, 2020 17:32
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Hal Incandenza posted:Hmmm so spokes basically just gave up earlier when he self voted because he was deflated from losing his scum buddy so early? Theatrics for pity and doubt? It's possible, but I'm also not ruling it out as real. It's curious.
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Dec 20, 2020 17:33
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I feel deep in my grotesque core that it's between spokes and sand, sands overt interactions with Grandi day one are but everyone else seems to thing that degree of collusion between them in thread is unlikely. Which is a fair and fine assumption to make, but with that post about private chat I'm still wondering...
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Dec 20, 2020 17:35
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Idle Amalgam posted:I feel deep in my grotesque core that it's between spokes and sand, sands overt interactions with Grandi day one are think*
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Dec 20, 2020 17:35
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Hal Incandenza posted:Hmmm so spokes basically just gave up earlier when he self voted because he was deflated from losing his scum buddy so early? I wish I had a clever explanation, but it really was just what it said in the post. I’m vanilla town and at that point I felt like I was going to be an endgame liability. I absolutely wouldn’t have done that as scum there, especially with the option to claim doc still on the table. After seeing the brag earlier in the thread about steak (I think) winning before losing his scum buddy day 2, hell yeah I would have played my heart out as scum after losing mine day 1.
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Dec 20, 2020 17:36
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Spokes posted:I've followed a lot of games recently and I thought that was a common trend. But I guess that's not a thing? Your idea that I could have heard it in scum chat is a good point. We've got one scum down and I'm going to be a great scapegoat if the game gets to lylo, i don't mind taking the D2 hit and i'm VT. We can go into D3 with 5 alive (and potentially 6 if the doc hits) without any easy targets for scum to put suspicion on Spokes posted:My logic is that I blew my credibility acting on bad information and I'd rather any other townie be around later in the game since I'd be an easy target for scum The vote and unvote are an hour apart, but it's good acting if it's acting. Makes me turn my eyes back at sandwolf
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Dec 20, 2020 17:41
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I'm going to put my vote on sand for now. ##vote sandwolf
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Dec 20, 2020 17:44
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Idle Amalgam posted:The vote and unvote are an hour apart, but it's good acting if it's acting. It was Hal basically saying “lmao don’t be a dummy” that got me to unvote, I didn’t plan on doing it immediately or after a set time or anything. It’s between Sand (by process of elimination) and Grand for me and it seems to be between Sand and myself for everyone else, so hopefully we’re all right and we can just get the win here ##vote Sandwolf
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Dec 20, 2020 17:51
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look if it’s not lylo this is fine, I think scum is likely in Hal/Grandi/IA BUT you bet your bippy I’m glad I don’t have to be here to guess wrong. Part of me says Hal, because the way he’s reacted to pressure in thread is very off to me. Part of me says Grandi, because while I usually pick him out as scum if he is, he’s been playing a much more passive game here, in general. (Is he pushing for anyone at this point..?) Part of me says IA, the hammer on D1, along with trying to connect me so hard to Amni when Amni & I are legit just normal friends feels like it’s trying to make something out of nothing. It’s possible its spokes, but, I dunno. The self vote felt sincere, not like a bluster. If spokes is scum I’m okay with them getting that dub.
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Dec 20, 2020 17:57
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It’s not lylo, so, if someone wants to hammer me that’s fine. I will not hammer myself. Why has thread sorta uniformly accepted it’s not IA again? I feel like I’m forgetting something
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Dec 20, 2020 17:59
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Sandwolf posted:It’s not lylo, so, if someone wants to hammer me that’s fine. I will not hammer myself. Doc claim, no counter, open game
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Dec 20, 2020 18:00
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Oh right the doc claim, yeah, with no counter that’s gold. Sweet, I think Hal then, I’ll place a symbolic vote there ##vote Hal
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Dec 20, 2020 18:01
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Sandwolf posted:Part of me says Grandi, because while I usually pick him out as scum if he is, he’s been playing a much more passive game here, in general. (Is he pushing for anyone at this point..?) This is what I’m saying! He’s non-committal and “safe” but seldom actually ventures a theory or an argument. He’s been defending himself in a reasonable way when he DOES post, but he’s making sure that there’s never too much he has to defend and I think he’s done next to 0 actual hunting. I know I’m not going to get people to vote Grand today but if I get NK’d (lmao) or lunched today I want him to stop getting a pass
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Dec 20, 2020 18:05
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I only have until Hal comes back to talk, so I can see what you’re sayin about Grandi, but honestly his scum game is usually a lot less refined, though that could be the cracks appearing easier in larger games. Lemme reread him a little bit
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Dec 20, 2020 18:09
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Grandi isn’t really pushing anyone, hmm
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Dec 20, 2020 18:11
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Don’t worry Sandbro, I won’t vote you yet
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Dec 20, 2020 18:22
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Well at the very least you know if Grandi switches gears and votes gimme he’s scum
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Dec 20, 2020 18:40
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