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Reduce your exposure to Canada as best you can.
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Feb 17, 2016 02:44
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Is that what the "2017 == 2005" doomsayers are doing, to profit from the impending and certain collapse? I don't feel confident in my ability to predict, but others in this thread seem to be in theirs. Is money anywhere near mouths?
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Feb 17, 2016 02:49
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HookShot posted:What was the average house price in Vancouver in 2005, out of curiosity? I bought a nice 1200 sq ft 2bd room place, right on 4th for about 300k in '05... sold it a few years ago. In all honesty -- not THAT unreasonable. Would have been a good investment to keep, aside from the strata time bomb.
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Feb 17, 2016 03:33
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http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/nearly-half-canadians-within-200-a-month-of-being-unable-to-pay-bills-poll-findsquote:Nearly half of Canadians are within $200 a month of being unable to pay their bills, poll finds lmao
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Feb 17, 2016 04:54
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Welcome back CI. You'll enjoy this one too (cross-posted from CanPol) In related Canadian pension news, this very scary article was on the CBC website today. article posted:But Shillington found the median value of retirement assets of Canadians age 55 to 64 is just over $3,000. My jaw literally dropped when I saw $3,000. I thought they must have left out a couple of zeros. And I agree that the effect on the economy when they retire (if they retire) is going to be both big and negative. I don't know where to fall on the last (quoted) statement. RRSPs and TFSAs should be good replacements, but as advertised you would think that the only reason to put into an RRSP is for the tax benefit, and that a TFSA is a savings account. So few people really understand how to utilize these accounts, and many don't have the income to utilize them even if they did understand them. I don't know what the answer is, but "CPP reform", which may help future generations, isn't really going to help 55-64 year-old Canadians unless said reform is literally "drive dump trucks of money up to their houses so they don't starve." And oh yeah don't read the comments (this should just be a warning on all Canada press-quoted articles at this point).
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Feb 17, 2016 04:58
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Here's your daily reminder that early in this thread, I was getting a whole bunch of YOU HAVE NO RIGHT TO JUDGE HOW PEOPLE SPEND THEIR MONEY posts lol gently caress you
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Feb 17, 2016 05:08
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So who wants to bet on which Great Depression fixtures appears first in the next few years? Bonus riots? Job lines? Blackshirts marching in the street? Occultist Prime Ministers? 
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Feb 17, 2016 05:20
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Mandibular Fiasco posted:The linear regression equation is this: 
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Feb 17, 2016 05:23
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Well anti chinese sentiment is at an all time high. Can't wait for head tax. Maybe internment oh wait wrong asians
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Feb 17, 2016 05:26
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Subjunctive posted:Is that what the "2017 == 2005" doomsayers are doing, to profit from the impending and certain collapse? I don't feel confident in my ability to predict, but others in this thread seem to be in theirs. Is money anywhere near mouths? Could you quote this prediction from someone? Can't seem to find it.
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Feb 17, 2016 05:30
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Nine of Eight posted:So who wants to bet on which Great Depression fixtures appears first in the next few years? Bonus riots? Job lines? Blackshirts marching in the street? Occultist Prime Ministers? Personally I cant wait to see the first picture of an Albertan boiling his boot to make soup.
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Feb 17, 2016 05:59
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Furnaceface posted:Personally I cant wait to see the first picture of an Albertan boiling his boot to make soup. There are so many Albertans turning to food shelters right now it's a joke. quote:http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-s-middle-class-feels-pain-of-alberta-downturn-1.3446431 Some are asking the Salvation Army to help float their mortgage payments. I had no idea this charity would effectively provide financial assistance like this instead of material support of food.
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Feb 17, 2016 06:31
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jm20 posted:There are so many Albertans turning to food shelters right now it's a joke. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SiylvmFI_8 also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYNTWBaNqm8 sponsor a roughneck named sonia who can't make payments on his douche truck, atv and boat
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Feb 17, 2016 06:35
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Earlier in the thread some people whose names escape me claimed that the BOC rate doesn't affect mortgage rates as strong as the Fed in the US does its housing market because Canadian banks can move money to the US to buy bond there and as a result Canadian mortgage interest rates are affected by US interest rates. I think I understood that. But now I'm thinking that the lovely CAD-USD exchange rate is going to forestall Canadian banks moving to US bonds because of the risk (this is not a prediction on my part) of buying back in to CAD after the exchange rate improves. Am I off base here?
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Feb 17, 2016 06:50
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jm20 posted:There are so many Albertans turning to food shelters right now it's a joke. I am going to willingly refuse to believe that even people from Alberta or Vancouver are that evil.
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Feb 17, 2016 06:53
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Cultural Imperial posted:Well anti chinese sentiment is at an all time high. Can't wait for head tax. Maybe internment aren't you malaysian chinese? should be a familiar feeling
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Feb 17, 2016 07:02
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MickeyFinn posted:Earlier in the thread some people whose names escape me claimed that the BOC rate doesn't affect mortgage rates as strong as the Fed in the US does its housing market because Canadian banks can move money to the US to buy bond there and as a result Canadian mortgage interest rates are affected by US interest rates. I think I understood that. But now I'm thinking that the lovely CAD-USD exchange rate is going to forestall Canadian banks moving to US bonds because of the risk (this is not a prediction on my part) of buying back in to CAD after the exchange rate improves. Am I off base here? Fixed Rate mortgages are tied to bonds, heavily influenced by US Fed Variable Rate mortgages are tied to Canadian BoC overnight rate,
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Feb 17, 2016 07:07
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Sort of feel bad for Albertans blowing all their money when they were making 100-120k a year in energy business jobs. They spent it all on Truck equity and overpriced housing.
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Feb 17, 2016 07:20
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etalian posted:Sort of feel bad for Albertans blowing all their money when they were making 100-120k a year in energy business jobs. I was taught basic personal finance in like grade 8. Apparently it is never taught at any grade in Alberta? It would explain a lot.
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Feb 17, 2016 08:17
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jm20 posted:There are so many Albertans turning to food shelters right now it's a joke. Ahahahaha the way that things are going I wouldn't be surprised to see pan handlers with signs that say "UNDUR WATER ON MY MORGAGE PLEAZE HELP"
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Feb 17, 2016 12:13
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Going back to the tax increase in Alberta from a few pages ago: has anybody put 2+2 together and realized huge swathes of rig pigs will either have to commit tax fraud or come up several thousand short on taxes this spring? 
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Feb 17, 2016 12:30
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Wasting posted:Could you quote this prediction from someone? Can't seem to find it. Yeah, I'm crossing streams about 2005 levels and imminence of a crash, I guess. I can try to dig back when I'm not on a phone to find examples of people predicting that the crash is imminent, if you don't believe that's been happening; my main point about people betting against RE remains.
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Feb 17, 2016 13:18
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Subjunctive posted:Yeah, I'm crossing streams about 2005 levels and imminence of a crash, I guess. I can try to dig back when I'm not on a phone to find examples of people predicting that the crash is imminent, if you don't believe that's been happening; my main point about people betting against RE remains. Well there is no way to short housing, other than to just not buy and continue to rent. (And if you don't think that is happening there may not be much you can learn here.) Other than renting, you have two other options: You can short something like Home Capital Group, which was/is the most shorted stock in the country. Of course you have to know what six month period it will decline or you will lose your shirt. Honestly I have no idea why it did this year other than shorting pressure alone. Second you can notice housing is something like 25% of GDP for BC and something similar for Canada, which construction employment currently is double historical norms. Now if you think that a condo economy is a funny thing to say, but not actually the basis of a growing economy, then those first two points should scare the hell out of you. (For reference, oil is less than 10% of GDP and look how fast we noticed that collapse.) Moving your investments from Canadian to American markets only makes sense even if you are only mildly bearish on Canada. Also you don't have to predict when it is going to happen.
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Feb 17, 2016 16:05
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Rime posted:Going back to the tax increase in Alberta from a few pages ago: has anybody put 2+2 together and realized huge swathes of rig pigs will either have to commit tax fraud or come up several thousand short on taxes this spring? New rates apply to this year's income for the next tax season innit? After the next round of job losses some of them won't have to pay ANY tax next year, how's that for a silver lining?
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Feb 17, 2016 16:12
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Honestly if you are bullish on Canada just jump straight into Real Estate investing. Otherwise, diversify with extreme prejudice away from Canadian holdings.
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Feb 17, 2016 16:17
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ocrumsprug posted:Also you don't have to predict when it is going to happen. It seems like "at some point in the remaining future of human existence, prices will do X" is a pretty uninteresting statement in terms of guiding decisions. If prices are going to remain elevated for 5 years, that puts a pretty different spin on the wisdom of buying a house than if they're going to drop in Q3. When I mentioned a plan to buy a house, at least one poster said that it would cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars versus waiting a year. It surprises me to discover that there aren't any instruments for taking advantage of that prediction, beyond directing one's own housing expenses. Certainly a 25% swing in prices over the course of a year seems a pretty ripe opportunity to exploit. E: less than 5% of my assets are in Canadian holdings, so that part doesn't worry me much
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Feb 17, 2016 16:23
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I love how in the other Canada thread everyone is hyper NDP partisan but in this thread it's all gently caress the working class.
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Feb 17, 2016 16:51
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The housing bubble is terrible for the working class, no?
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Feb 17, 2016 16:52
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Only if you were moral enough to die by the sword of your minimum wage service job getting outsourced to robots in the city rather than trying to support your family by going to where the money was in Alberta.
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Feb 17, 2016 17:06
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Subjunctive posted:It seems like "at some point in the remaining future of human existence, prices will do X" is a pretty uninteresting statement in terms of guiding decisions. If prices are going to remain elevated for 5 years, that puts a pretty different spin on the wisdom of buying a house than if they're going to drop in Q3. When I mentioned a plan to buy a house, at least one poster said that it would cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars versus waiting a year. It surprises me to discover that there aren't any instruments for taking advantage of that prediction, beyond directing one's own housing expenses. Certainly a 25% swing in prices over the course of a year seems a pretty ripe opportunity to exploit. Historically, housing prices have grown more or less with inflation. There has been no need for a proper market in housing because no one wanted to play around with an asset that fluctuates closely around inflation. Hell, the guys who wanted to short the US market 10 years ago had to get custom derivatives made and the brought 100s of millions of dollars to the table to do it. Your average Joe has no way to play the real estate market except to buy or not.
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Feb 17, 2016 17:13
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ZShakespeare posted:Only if you were moral enough to die by the sword of your minimum wage service job getting outsourced to robots in the city rather than trying to support your family by going to where the money was in Alberta. (and then spending all the money you made in Alberta on useless expensive poo poo) That's the part people object to.
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Feb 17, 2016 17:35
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Subjunctive posted:It seems like "at some point in the remaining future of human existence, prices will do X" is a pretty uninteresting statement in terms of guiding decisions. If prices are going to remain elevated for 5 years, that puts a pretty different spin on the wisdom of buying a house than if they're going to drop in Q3. When I mentioned a plan to buy a house, at least one poster said that it would cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars versus waiting a year. It surprises me to discover that there aren't any instruments for taking advantage of that prediction, beyond directing one's own housing expenses. Certainly a 25% swing in prices over the course of a year seems a pretty ripe opportunity to exploit. Sounds like you already bought in to a similar idea. I sort of suspect that part of the reason you don't see housing based financial security products is that both markets have drastically different regulatory environments. Part of why housing has performed as well as it has is that you can pretty much say whatever you want about it. Look at just about any condo marketing literature and it is basically math based lies, while there is a lot of evidence that the monthly stats the real estate board publish every month are partial cloth fabrications. If you try to do that with a security, you will end up needing a new career and probably be hiring criminal lawyers. Considering there is nothing that has had even vaguely similar returns to housing, yet there is nothing. It seems like it would be a ripe market if someone thought they could, even temporarily, get away with it. This is extra suprising given Vancouver's well deserved reputation as the Canadian capital of shady security scams. ocrumsprug fucked around with this message at 17:51 on Feb 17, 2016 |
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Feb 17, 2016 17:49
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Subjunctive posted:The housing bubble is terrible for the working class, no? It's terrible for a majority of people because it means more money forked away for rents or a mortgage. There's a good reason why the German government discourages big housing cost increases. Furnaceface posted:I was taught basic personal finance in like grade 8. Apparently it is never taught at any grade in Alberta? It would explain a lot. Most people blue collar people don't have any sense for financial management, so even with a high paying job they end up spending most of it on dumb impulse buys.
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Feb 17, 2016 18:00
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PT6A posted:(and then spending all the money you made in Alberta on useless expensive poo poo) I bet if all them injuns would stop wasting all their money on booze they'd bootstraps themselves too.
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Feb 17, 2016 18:04
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Mandibular Fiasco posted:The linear regression equation is this: Hell, the relationship doesn't even need to be linear, just have some 4 year old draw on graph paper and use the resulting regression. Slap their last name on it and we've got ourselves an "advance prediction model".
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Feb 17, 2016 18:26
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9eWIGTqJBcw&feature=youtu.be&platform=hootsuite
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Feb 17, 2016 18:33
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etalian posted:Most
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Feb 17, 2016 18:40
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ocrumsprug posted:Sounds like you already bought in to a similar idea. Well, I didn't move anything out of Canada intentionally, I'm just living in the US right now and that's where the assets "appeared". I'd like to move money to Canada to take advantage of the exchange rate, but I'm not sure what I'd feel good putting it in. Someone mentioned ways to short REITs or similar in the US, but maybe there's nothing for Canada. There are financial products created out of real estate revenues/rents certainly (I hold some related to commercial property in the US), but the value of those isn't tied closely to the sale value of the properties. (Until the trust is dissolved, I guess? I know less about the vehicles I hold than I probably should.)
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Feb 17, 2016 18:44
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ZShakespeare posted:I bet if all them injuns would stop wasting all their money on booze they'd bootstraps themselves too. You sure are stretching real hard to recover from that bad comment. We pity the working class here since that includes the majority of us. Its why we complain about rent, housing, debt levels, cost of living, stagnant wages, youth unemployment, and bad spending habits so much. We have a culture of fiscal stupidity that has been created through decades of government encouragement to spend spend spend and given all the power to do so without ever noticing the safety nets below being taken away. Rig pigs just make easy targets because they ignored all the warning signs and refused to believe that history could repeat itself. Many continue to blame everyone but themselves and often stories come out about them that make it clear they have learned nothing. But then again, no one else in this dumb country has learned from it either.
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Feb 17, 2016 18:46
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If you buy a house and your debt service eats up 50% of your after tax income, get hosed retard
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Feb 17, 2016 18:50
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