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Uncle Jam posted:Dude is polling like 16 points up on the next closest guy right now I mean is it really so uncommon in SK foreign policy circles to reunify with the north and throw off the yolk of the Americans? A united Korea would be a hell of an economic power in 20-25 years time, assuming peaceful reunification and successful integration (big loving ifs of course).
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Apr 28, 2017 07:34
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How do South Koreans that favor peaceful reunification actually envision that happening? I presume their idea of reunification doesn't involve just letting Kim become dictator for life of South Korea as well, so do they think that he can just be bargained into stepping down or something?
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Apr 28, 2017 09:03
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Gnumonic posted:How do South Koreans that favor peaceful reunification actually envision that happening? I presume their idea of reunification doesn't involve just letting Kim become dictator for life of South Korea as well, so do they think that he can just be bargained into stepping down or something? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFQCYpIHLNQ
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Apr 28, 2017 09:21
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Gnumonic posted:How do South Koreans that favor peaceful reunification actually envision that happening? I presume their idea of reunification doesn't involve just letting Kim become dictator for life of South Korea as well, so do they think that he can just be bargained into stepping down or something? Give Kim a billion dollars and a big tacky mansion with complimentary security guards in exchange for his country?
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Apr 28, 2017 12:32
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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blowfish posted:Give Kim a billion dollars and a big tacky mansion with complementary security guards in exchange for his country?
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Apr 28, 2017 12:33
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Gobbeldygook posted:Nice straw man, bro. No one is arguing Ghaddafi was attacked for "no reason". We are instead arguing that Ghaddafi would probably not have been bombed if he had nuclear weapons. It's a good thing for us and the people he was going to kill that he didn't have nuclear weapons, but an extremely bad thing from his and Kim Jong Un's perspectives. This is the one situation where the US could have just said "yeah Ghaddafi is a lovely dictator rear end in a top hat who we'd love to bomb but we promised him we wouldn't do that in exchange for giving up his nuke program and have to stand by that promise because of all the other insane dictators we have to prevent from getting nukes. Because, you know, nukes." Or simply flown him out of the country to put him into one of the aforementioned mansions if they thought that would be close enough to keep to the agreement. suck my woke dick fucked around with this message at 12:39 on Apr 28, 2017 |
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Apr 28, 2017 12:36
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Samurai Sanders posted:Sounds good to me...as long as they could guarantee him he won't meet the same fate as his brother. Well, yeah. But who is currently in the business of clandestinely assassinating high ranking foreigners apart from countries that don't particularly care about Kim?
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Apr 28, 2017 12:44
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Is there suspicion amid the security relationship between China and DPRK? Not sure that the US, from its perspective, would want to promote closer cooperation between them, but China stationing troops in DPRK (in addition to the existing (?) treaty), as the US does in SK, seems like it would be an option for, from the DPRK perspective, providing more fulsome protection from outside (US) aggression (solving the Libya/Iraq problem for DPRK) without the need for DPRK to invest resources in, or deal with the diplomatic consequences of, a nuclear program, or for further weapons or defense systems to be deployed in SK; and at the same time ensure the continued role, from China's perspective, of DPRK as a buffer / client state. Maybe the recent border deployments are intended to provide some of the same benefits, and China obviously has good land and sea access without a base, but for the specific security concern troubling DPRK, having a tripwire force on site would potentially be a more appealing solution. Just wondering why the parties haven't pursued that sort of arrangement; guessing the answer to the question is likely: yes.
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Apr 28, 2017 13:25
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Probably because the narrative of 'Only the Kim family can save us from the big scary oegug-in' is going to be a liiiiiltle harder to swallow with a few Chinese garrisons hanging around. Not to mention the likely issues of 'contamination'. Those soldiers'll bring in tapes, consumer goods, news of the outside world. Again, not so good for civil dissent. WarpedNaba fucked around with this message at 13:32 on Apr 28, 2017 |
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Apr 28, 2017 13:30
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maskenfreiheit posted:Not clear why they wouldn't want THAAD, but maybe we should tell them if they think they can handle NK on their own go ahead. THAAD isn't especially beneficial to them, and they don't especially want China to be really pissed off at them. Just because the US has committed to defend them from North Korea doesn't mean they're obligated to be an arm of aggressive US foreign policy.
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Apr 28, 2017 13:45
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maskenfreiheit posted:Not clear why they wouldn't want THAAD, but maybe we should tell them if they think they can handle NK on their own go ahead. THAAD is terminal high altitude area defense. It defends an area from ballistic missiles which seems like the one type of missile north korea wouldn't use against south korea. THAAD is to shoot down stuff going farther out and hasn't got any real direct benefit for south korea.
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Apr 28, 2017 13:45
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I'unno, making sure that allies aren't impeded by the few missiles that don't fall apart in the air would be of pretty direct benefit if hostilities broke out. Then again, pretty big if.
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Apr 28, 2017 14:13
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KaptainKrunk posted:I mean is it really so uncommon in SK foreign policy circles to reunify with the north and throw off the yolk of the Americans? A united Korea would be a hell of an economic power in 20-25 years time, assuming peaceful reunification and successful integration (big loving ifs of course). Yes, you're right that no politician is ever going to say 'separated Korea 4ever' but the method between the current two left-right parties is starkly different. Park's stance was to reunite after the collapse of the DPRK government and pull most communication and cooperative projects. The new guy, Moon, (since names of parties are amorphous in Korea) wants to do this through economic cooperation. It doesn't hurt to point out that many Park supports come out waving the US flag as well, close relations to the US were her thing The issue with the Americans is that Korea is much more closely entangled in economic trade with China than the US is, so Korea doesn't have to wait until reunification to reduce US influence - the idea is to welcome Chinese influence. I know it probably sounds insane to people entrenched in western sphere economics but lately Koreans have been frustrated at US actions. Every time US sabre rattles back at DPRK the south korean stocks take a beating, the won goes nuts, friends and children in involuntary conscription get put on high alert. While the economy is great compared to DPRK, taken as viewed in relation to the developed world it isn't great. Heavy industry crashed, employment in chaebols isn't a great take for young people because of massive ageism and having to live on tiny pensions in your early 40s if you miss a promotion, and this pushes along massive brain drain happening as people look to secure a better job for themselves and keep their sons out of the army. So, many think China could bring a lot more to the table economically than what the US has been doing the last 15 years. The last thing is a very recent development. The massive benefit of the US is of course global security. However, a lot of people's faith got shaken by Russia's invasion of a US ally and annexation of territory. Aside from some sanctions, nothing has happened. People even say that there is now cooperation between the US and Russia, so when push comes to shove does Korea get to be on team US or is it China and the US teaming up to regovern Korea? If its China why not just align with them anyway since Korea is so economically tied to them? This is the line of arguing that is happening now. And as other poster's pointed out, US installation of THAAD benefits only the US, not Korea, which leads a lot of weight to this argument domestically. While the polls were even for Moon vs centrist guy (Park's party is in the shitter), the forced install of THAAD coupled with this argument and a few other scandals have really pushed Moon far ahead this week. Uncle Jam fucked around with this message at 14:28 on Apr 28, 2017 |
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Apr 28, 2017 14:25
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Gnumonic posted:How do South Koreans that favor peaceful reunification actually envision that happening? I presume their idea of reunification doesn't involve just letting Kim become dictator for life of South Korea as well, so do they think that he can just be bargained into stepping down or something? The South Korean government has had a Reunification Ministry for decades, they have all sorts of plans drawn up for how to implement reunification once someone gets rid of the North Korean regime. The plans obviously have different cases to handle things like "unification after military campaign", "unification via peaceful stepdown", etc.
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Apr 28, 2017 15:47
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WarpedNaba posted:I'unno, making sure that allies aren't impeded by the few missiles that don't fall apart in the air would be of pretty direct benefit if hostilities broke out. I know that it's not the point your making, but I'd just interject on the 'Lol North Korean missiles falling apart' thing, as I think everyone seeing North Korea as a joke is actually quite a dangerous tendency. Their proven and deployed missiles don't fall apart. They work just fine. quote:Since 2014, about three-quarters of Pyongyang’s launches have succeeded. My colleague Shea Cotton keeps a database of every North Korean missile launch. Of the 66 missiles that North Korea launched during 2014 and after, 51 have succeeded... mediadave fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Apr 28, 2017 |
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Apr 28, 2017 17:06
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Warbadger posted:Well, North Korea never really built much of an economy. They used the free money and aid from the USSR as a way to supplement the economy. This is why things went straight to poo poo once the aid vanished. fishmech posted:This isn't true. They had a perfectly fine economy up til the mid-70s or so. Being a resource-selling minor satellite of a superpower is totally a "valid" way to have an economy, most countries realistically work that way. But mobilization only produces gains up to a point, beyond which you see quickly diminishing returns without capital and better technology. Like fishmech said, North Korea couldn't hold up their end of their contracts with Western investors and manufacturers. But even before that, the ideological and economic rift with the Soviet Union began soon after Stalin died and Krushchev eschewed belligerence and the personality cult in favour of peaceful coexistence and economic competition. The Kim regime needed a belligerent personality cult to justice it's existence, and KIS didn't want to participate in a greater Communist economic sphere in any way that might loosen his grip. I don't have hard data on this, but I think that the policy of producing consumer goods domestically whenever and wherever possible must have been a hindrance to their economic development. The poor quality of consumer goods (and later industrial tools and machinery) has been a notable long-running problem. This got even worse when their ruined credit reduced them to manufacturing knockoffs of Russian machinery. I'm also going to go out on a limb and say that the regime's internal security policies and the extreme luxuries the Kim dynasty enjoyed were strains on the economy. Not a lot gets done in an environment where ordinary workers and bureaucrats are constantly spying on each other and the government employs a bunch of inspectors to do nothing but travel around investigating any sign of dissidence. As for Kim's decadence, well, I don't begrudge a head of state a few limos, but he had an entire corps whose job was to scour the country for young women to be part of his harem. And after South Korea surpassed them economically, they just doubled down on boondoggle projects to make a false show of prosperity. Halloween Jack fucked around with this message at 17:12 on Jun 8, 2017 |
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Apr 28, 2017 19:37
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Main Paineframe posted:THAAD isn't especially beneficial to them, and they don't especially want China to be really pissed off at them. Just because the US has committed to defend them from North Korea doesn't mean they're obligated to be an arm of aggressive US foreign policy. China has been throwing a hissyfit for the past year or so and has relentlessly attacked the South Korean economy as a result. If anything China is proving that they do need THAAD.
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Apr 28, 2017 21:44
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Fojar38 posted:China has been throwing a hissyfit for the past year or so and has relentlessly attacked the South Korean economy as a result. If anything China is proving that they do need THAAD. China is doing that because it's a program that greatly cuts into their sphere of influence that was negotiated under a completely illegitimate Korean government. It doesn't help them at all because all SK needs to do is tell the US to gently caress off with their saber rattling and negotiate with China and NK.
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Apr 28, 2017 22:02
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Welp here's another ICBM Launch https://twitter.com/YonhapNews/status/858064821362675712
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Apr 28, 2017 22:11
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And then what?
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Apr 28, 2017 22:36
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Fiction posted:China is doing that because it's a program that greatly cuts into their sphere of influence that was negotiated under a completely illegitimate Korean government. It doesn't help them at all because all SK needs to do is tell the US to gently caress off with their saber rattling and negotiate with China and NK. Tell me more about China's rightful sphere of influence over all of Asia and how a government that was democratically elected and then subsequently impeached in accordance with the law is illegitimate Unlike the legitimate governments of China and North Korea  Edit: Seriously this "mah spheres of influence!" garbage is the exact same rationale that Putinists use to justify invading Ukraine
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Apr 28, 2017 22:41
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Fojar38 posted:Tell me more about China's rightful sphere of influence over all of Asia and how a government that was democratically elected and then subsequently impeached in accordanced with the law is illegitimate China has the "right" to a sphere of influence like we have the "right" to set up radar that goes deep into their sovereign territory. Also, the US's meddling in Korean politics makes any government consisting of the conservative party illegitimate because we put our fingers on the scale for them.
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Apr 28, 2017 22:44
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Ron Darling posted:Welp here's another ICBM Launch https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/858069182159753216 Looks like it failed.
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Apr 28, 2017 22:48
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Fiction posted:China has the "right" to a sphere of influence like we have the "right" to set up radar that goes deep into their sovereign territory. Why does China have a "right" to a sphere of influence in other sovereign countries, especially one where China is historically unpopular and recently surpassed perpetual boogeyman Japan in unpopularity? The US presence in South Korea is there because the South Koreans allow it, something that isn't going to change THAAD or no THAAD. edit: I mean aside for your long established support for Chinese imperialism Fiction posted:Also, the US's meddling in Korean politics makes any government consisting of the conservative party illegitimate because we put our fingers on the scale for them. So your argument is that every South Korean election is manipulated by the US? Or only the elections where governments you don't like are elected? Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 22:57 on Apr 28, 2017 |
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Apr 28, 2017 22:49
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OhFunny posted:https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/858069182159753216 I mean, the idea sounds crazy, but everything about this is crazy.
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Apr 28, 2017 23:02
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Samurai Sanders posted:Does NK ever deliberately make their missiles fail, to leave ambiguity (at least to their domestic audience) about whether it was a test or an actual attack? Stux'ed perhaps.
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Apr 28, 2017 23:08
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Samurai Sanders posted:Does NK ever deliberately make their missiles fail, to leave ambiguity (at least to their domestic audience) about whether it was a test or an actual attack? Oh god no, not at all. If this is the same type of missile launched in February, that means that they've learned a bit since this apparently landed 30-40km in the Sea of Japan, as opposed to blowing up on the launchpad Also, we don't sabotage their missile programs, no matter how much you'd like to believe we do (and how much we'd like to be able to do that)
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Apr 28, 2017 23:10
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It's all highly classified obviously but the US probably has been able to breach North Korean computer networks and has actually demonstrated it in the past (like when they shut down the entire country's internet access after the Sony attack) although this doesn't necessarily translate into being able to sabotage missile launches. US Cyber capabilities are terrifying, they just don't get that much press.
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Apr 28, 2017 23:13
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Fojar38 posted:Why does China have a "right" to a sphere of influence in other sovereign countries, especially one where China is historically unpopular and recently surpassed perpetual boogeyman Japan in unpopularity? The US presence in South Korea is there because the South Koreans allow it, something that isn't going to change THAAD or no THAAD. Neither country has that right. Also lol at you caping for the party that directly traces its lineage to the us backed dictatorship of the fifties.
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Apr 28, 2017 23:13
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Fojar38 posted:China has been throwing a hissyfit for the past year or so and has relentlessly attacked the South Korean economy as a result. If anything China is proving that they do need THAAD. Why? Do you think South Korea should be worried about being targeted by Chinese long-range missiles, or something?
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Apr 28, 2017 23:15
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Main Paineframe posted:Why? Do you think South Korea should be worried about being targeted by Chinese long-range missiles, or something? Uhh, yes? What's with this nonsensical notion that South Korea wasn't a Chinese military target until THAAD came along? North Korean missiles too, since North Korea is in fact working on getting and may already have MRBM capability. If China isn't happy about that they need to talk to Pyongyang. Saying that Seoul is being a meanyhead and hurting the feelings of the Chinese people for erecting defenses against missile attack is the height of Chinese chauvanism and is a straight up imperialistic narrative. Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 23:20 on Apr 28, 2017 |
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Apr 28, 2017 23:17
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:THAAD is terminal high altitude area defense. It defends an area from ballistic missiles which seems like the one type of missile north korea wouldn't use against south korea. THAAD is to shoot down stuff going farther out and hasn't got any real direct benefit for south korea. That version of THAAD has terminal approach interceptors. It can't take out anything taking off nor in transition, just anything that comes down within it's range. The kicker is that after it was agreed to deploy it the radar was slated to be replaced with a much more power & discerning AN/TPY-2 radar, which is the important part because it gives the US radar coverage over a chunk of China. The interceptors are not the important part, the radar is
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Apr 28, 2017 23:20
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TheWetFish posted:That version of THAAD has terminal approach interceptors. It can't take out anything taking off nor in transition, just anything that comes down within it's range. The kicker is that after it was agreed to deploy it the radar was slated to be replaced with a much more power & discerning AN/TPY-2 radar, which is the important part because it gives the US radar coverage over a chunk of China. The interceptors are not the important part, the radar is And also the entirety of North Korea. If China thinks that the US is using North Korea as a fig leaf to erect radars aimed at China then once again, it's Pyongyang that China needs to complain to, not Seoul.
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Apr 28, 2017 23:24
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Fojar38 posted:Saying that Seoul is being a meanyhead and hurting the feelings of the Chinese people for erecting defenses against missile attack is the height of Chinese chauvanism and is a straight up imperialistic narrative. That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying Washington is illegitimately placing a radar system that is compromising to China's sovereign airspace without the consent of the south Korean people as they are literally just about to elect the guy who wants to talk over this whole "annoy China at great cost to south Korea so America can continue to play god" thing.
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Apr 28, 2017 23:27
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e: Maybe a little too on the nose.
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Apr 28, 2017 23:28
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There is already a radar of equivalent type operational in Japan that could see everything a new radar in Korea could see, this is probably just china being a literal bully. Like seriously they've started a xenophobic nationalist wave in china that led to such gems like the viral videos of Korean cookies being torn off supermarket shelves to be burned by an angry mob or Korean C level celebrities promoting makeup getting booed out of events. This has nothing to do with the technical capability of some dumb radar.
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Apr 28, 2017 23:32
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Fiction posted:That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying Washington is illegitimately placing a radar system that is compromising to China's sovereign airspace without the consent of the south Korean people as they are literally just about to elect the guy who wants to talk over this whole "annoy China at great cost to south Korea so America can continue to play god" thing. Where is all this "Moon is going to cancel deployment and ally with China and reunify Korea under North Korean rule" stuff coming from? All his objections have been framed as being procedural, as in "The next government should decide (which is nonsensical in countries with annual elections but is deployed constantly by opposition parties when an election is imminent, for example the GOP regarding SCOTUS) or "We should always be open to diplomacy while also ensuring the strength of our alliance with the United States" stuff. It's really, really obvious he's setting himself up to approve THAAD as soon as he's in office.
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Apr 28, 2017 23:35
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TsarZiedonis posted:There is already a radar of equivalent type operational in Japan that could see everything a new radar in Korea could see, this is probably just china being a literal bully. It's almost like the Chinese economy is doing badly and the CCP is worried about domestic stability so they're turning to the good old "get people mad at your neighbours" tactic. Edit: And also party plenum in the fall where Xi is going to declare himself dictator for life and he needs to keep up certain appearances (China stronk under Xi!) going into it. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 28, 2017 23:40
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/858100088253669376
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Apr 29, 2017 00:59
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Fiction posted:China has the "right" to a sphere of influence like we have the "right" to set up radar that goes deep into their sovereign territory. but the liberals are going to keep THAAD? opinion polls have china as less popular in south korea than japan http://en.asaninst.org/contents/south-koreans-and-their-neighbors-2016/
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Apr 29, 2017 04:49
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