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Westy543 posted:Honestly Tesla loving around with this is going to get any kind of self driving tech banned by the NHTSA. Or get themselves sued into oblivion. Whichever comes first.
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Oct 28, 2020 20:23
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That's the goal, get the FSD failure banned by the NHTSA, then then blame evil big government for not letting them deliver the promise, rather than Tesla's own incompetence. Pocket as much money as they can along the way.
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Oct 28, 2020 20:37
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I posted this in the YOSPOS thread but my theory is at this point Tesla knows it's never going to get FSD working (I mean they just rewrote it after years on the old version, and the new version is just as bad). They've already taken money for it and recognized some of the revenue, so the best thing for them would be the NHTSA to come in and ban them from releasing the software to the public, letting them shift the blame to government intervention. The only problem with my theory is the NHTSA so far seems to be beholden to them for one reason or another, so they may not actually intervene. Another factor is the companies that actually have self-driving technology have just started limited public trials, and they need to compete with that narrative (because Tesla was supposedly light years ahead of the people with real engineers and an actual process). Releasing it now gets them a ton of publicity, be it good or bad, that will drown out the stories on their competitors. The stock price is the most important aspect of Tesla, and any cracks in the narrative could have major repercussions for their stock price, and consequently Musk himself (all his money is from loans based on Tesla shares as collateral, if the price drops too much he gets a margin call). *edit*drat it Speleothing
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Oct 28, 2020 20:38
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If we're allowed to post ridiculous conspiracy theories then I'll toss in my theory that Tesla FSD will be safe, reliable and widely released within 6 months from now. I think the gap between FSD beta and reliable FSD is actually smaller than how far Autopilot has already improved. Autopilot used to fail lane changes all the time, it would swerve to center when a lane widens, it would ignore right turn lanes and take up room near the shoulder where people would want to turn. Now all of those are fixed and it also recognizes traffic lights / stop signs along with very smooth humanlike acceleration and braking. I think they have some remaining challenges with perception and driving policy but it's functional enough to be released shortly after some fine tuning and edge case gathering. edit: The traffic light support has already automated my entire 10 minute commute except for leaving the neighborhood (and except for WFH). I don't think I have ever intervened besides to avoid some birds in the road. Strict human monitoring continues only because it's the right thing to do, not because it's really necessary at this point. Xel fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Oct 28, 2020 |
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Oct 28, 2020 21:30
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I would love for FSD to be miraculously good. I know this is AI but I'd rather just punch my destination in and not think about it. It would be much better on traffic too.
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Oct 28, 2020 21:39
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Xel posted:If we're allowed to post ridiculous conspiracy theories then I'll toss in my theory that Tesla FSD will be safe, reliable and widely released within 6 months from now. Have you watched any of the videos? *edit* safe and reliable FSD will require lidar MomJeans420 fucked around with this message at 21:50 on Oct 28, 2020 |
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Oct 28, 2020 21:46
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MomJeans420 posted:Have you watched any of the videos? Yep watched most of them. Autopilot used to have just as many issues in much simpler cases. I think we're all biased a little bit by our driving experiences and needs. I'm astounded to see FSD works in downtown Sacramento with complex intersections and not terribly surprised when it fails. I don't need FSD to navigate 5 roundabouts and one way streets in downtown city traffic, I just need it to do one left turn and one right turn to complete automation of my commute. I'm pretty sure it'll be there soon and I think the system is capable of handing the more complex cases as they gather data and fine tune it. I do think it'll take them longer than 6 months to make it fully safe and reliable, but that's being realistic and not my crazy optimism. Xel fucked around with this message at 22:04 on Oct 28, 2020 |
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Oct 28, 2020 21:54
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Hasn't it been 6 months away for like a decade now or some other variation of "soon"
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Oct 28, 2020 22:00
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This conspiracy is kind of interesting. All I know is FSD won't be driving itself without a human monitoring it, not this update, nor the next.
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Oct 28, 2020 22:07
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I had more fun with the EVGo chargers last night. Pulled into Petersen Auto Museum garage (LA). You get 30min free parking, one minute more and it's $17. So I had 30 minutes and I figured I could get a good 25minutes of sweet almost 50kw charging. That was foolish wishful thinking. Even with the app and TWO EVGo activated RFID cards that was not to be so. A repeating loop where the station asks for payment, swipe the app or use the card(s) and a message that the charger is in use. I managed after 15 minutes of this nonsense to get 10 minutes of charging. I hope it isn't this bad on the Vegas trip.
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Oct 28, 2020 22:16
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Charles posted:I would love for FSD to be miraculously good. I know this is AI but I'd rather just punch my destination in and not think about it. It would be much better on traffic too. Widespread adoption of full self-driving will probably actually make traffic worse. They've done some experiments using chauffeurs as stand-ins for AI driven self-driving. They pay the chauffeurs to drive people around and go anywhere that they would want. The people end up driving way more than they would if they had to drive themselves so you end up with cars on the road more than you would otherwise, increasing traffic.
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Oct 28, 2020 22:20
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Nitrousoxide posted:Widespread adoption of full self-driving will probably actually make traffic worse. They've done some experiments using chauffeurs as stand-ins for AI driven self-driving. They pay the chauffeurs to drive people around and go anywhere that they would want. The people end up driving way more than they would if they had to drive themselves so you end up with cars on the road more than you would otherwise, increasing traffic. Yeah you have more cars but they are all driving the speed limit, yielding correctly, not running red lights or stop signs, driving in the correct lane for their speed, not rubbernecking, etc. so although there are more cars the hope is there will be far less traffic.
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Oct 28, 2020 22:32
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Xel posted:Yep watched most of them. Autopilot used to have just as many issues in much simpler cases. I think we're all biased a little bit by our driving experiences and needs. I'm astounded to see FSD works in downtown Sacramento with complex intersections and not terribly surprised when it fails. I don't need FSD to navigate 5 roundabouts and one way streets in downtown city traffic, I just need it to do one left turn and one right turn to complete automation of my commute. I'm pretty sure it'll be there soon and I think the system is capable of handing the more complex cases as they gather data and fine tune it. The thing is FSD is either full self-driving, or it's not. Safe and reliable means it can do your whole drive with no interventions. One of the videos I watched (the one filmed by a drone) had the Tesla make a left turn and immediately head straight for a bright red parked car. After hitting numerous fire trucks over the years, it still can't avoid a parked red car. That's not an edge case. Waymo reported 1.45 million miles of autonomous driving in CA for 2019, with an average of 13k miles between disengagements. Tesla reported 12 miles in 2019 (not a typo). gwrtheyrn posted:Hasn't it been 6 months away for like a decade now or some other variation of "soon" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920?s=20
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Oct 28, 2020 22:42
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gwrtheyrn posted:Hasn't it been 6 months away for like a decade now or some other variation of "soon" the zeno's paradox of full self driving capabilities.
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Oct 28, 2020 22:51
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I had someone from the building management company round for an unrelated issue and they've announced that my electricity meter isn't actually recording anything and the company has been estimating the whole time. Shame I only got a couple of weeks charging my EV. Also it turns out we haven't had any heating for 2.5 years but have great insulation and I guess the apartment above and below have been picking up the slack. Thanks guys.
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Oct 28, 2020 22:53
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Mercedes let just now ride the first journalists in a S class equipped with level 3 self driving. And only on a test course. Although one with simulated traffic. They got radar, lidar, cameras all around, microphones to listen for sirens from police and firefighters, special sensors in the wheel wells to recognize splashing if the road is flooded and a special high precision gps/galileo sensor on the roof. They also monitor the driver with cameras and IR sensors to make sure you don't leave the drivers seat or fall asleep. And they still only allow the use of it on the Autobahn with speeds below 60km/h. So only in case of heavy congestion or traffic jams. People seem pretty impressed by it. It seems to manage fine on its own and gives you about 10 seconds to retake control once it can't figure out what to do. You are also not required to monitor it or traffic in any way while it's active unlike with level 2 stuff.
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Oct 28, 2020 23:01
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knox_harrington posted:I had someone from the building management company round for an unrelated issue and they've announced that my electricity meter isn't actually recording anything and the company has been estimating the whole time. Shame I only got a couple of weeks charging my EV. I could tell when the person below me went on vacation at my old apartment because I normally rarely had to run the heat. It was actually too hot for me.
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Oct 28, 2020 23:16
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MomJeans420 posted:The thing is FSD is either full self-driving, or it's not. Safe and reliable means it can do your whole drive with no interventions. One of the videos I watched (the one filmed by a drone) had the Tesla make a left turn and immediately head straight for a bright red parked car. After hitting numerous fire trucks over the years, it still can't avoid a parked red car. That's not an edge case. Waymo reported 1.45 million miles of autonomous driving in CA for 2019, with an average of 13k miles between disengagements. Tesla reported 12 miles in 2019 (not a typo). Regardless of tweets, terms or Waymo, I expect to be able to enable the Tesla FSD checkbox within 6 months (my own guess not Elon's) and have it automate my entire commute based on how well it already performs in those same videos. I don't have left turns that need to avoid parked cars in tight corners in downtown city streets. Dunno what else there is to say since we have different expectations and that's fine since we'll see within time how it plays out.
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Oct 28, 2020 23:17
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Please be the second coming of the Spark EV!
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Oct 28, 2020 23:26
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Xel posted:If we're allowed to post ridiculous conspiracy theories then I'll toss in my theory that Tesla FSD will be safe, reliable and widely released within 6 months from now. I'm very happy with where FSD is at at the moment. The autosteer on city streets is very competent, I use it down a curvy road on the way to the highway highway with two stoplights and a stop sign and it does admirably. Then of course its fully automated for the 15 mile commute down the highway, onto a giant sky ramp, onto another highway, then taking an exit. I really enjoy having it. City street autosteer can still be a little wonky when a turn lane emerges from yours and his has to figure out which lane is the real one, but thats about my one major flaw I've noticed so far.
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Oct 28, 2020 23:27
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Maybe Tesla can just crib from GM for its autodrive
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Oct 28, 2020 23:39
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I read the actual article with details. Tesla scored higher on the functionality, they only scored GM higher because it nags you more and is thus "safer." Pretty loving dumb.
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Oct 28, 2020 23:55
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Bum the Sad posted:I read the actual article with details. Tesla scored higher on the functionality, they only scored GM higher because it nags you more and is thus "safer." Pretty loving dumb. Yep https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/cadillac-super-cruise-outperforms-other-active-driving-assistance-systems/#1 The guy who snoops Tesla's code also found recent evidence of a driver monitoring system using the unused passenger camera. They must be getting ready for regulations that require it or maybe they'll release it just to fix their ratings for these types of comparisons.
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Oct 28, 2020 23:59
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Xel posted:Yep https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/cadillac-super-cruise-outperforms-other-active-driving-assistance-systems/#1 Yeah very misleading headlines. headline: SUPERCRUISE BETTER actual article:   It's better, only it's not, and its hard to use. Bum the Sad fucked around with this message at 00:02 on Oct 29, 2020 |
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Oct 29, 2020 00:00
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I mean, being better at monitoring the driver and ensuring their attentiveness is a important feature for a self-driving module that is not wholy capable of handling any situation itself.
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Oct 29, 2020 00:27
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Nitrousoxide posted:I mean, being better at monitoring the driver and ensuring their attentiveness is a important feature for a self-driving module that is not wholy capable of handling any situation itself.
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Oct 29, 2020 01:24
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Care to elaborate on that bud?
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Oct 29, 2020 01:27
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Nitrousoxide posted:Care to elaborate on that bud? it's annoying
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Oct 29, 2020 01:37
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Cue tantrum and a predictable abuse video of autopilot in 5...Xel posted:Regardless of tweets, terms or Waymo, I expect to be able to enable the Tesla FSD checkbox within 6 months (my own guess not Elon's) and have it automate my entire commute based on how well it already performs in those same videos. I don't have left turns that need to avoid parked cars in tight corners in downtown city streets. Dunno what else there is to say since we have different expectations and that's fine since we'll see within time how it plays out. So your criteria for it being reliable and safe is it can handle your very limited drive? BTW, it still can't meet the CA vehicle code for stop signs (judging from that drone video), which seems like a pretty basic requirement.
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Oct 29, 2020 01:51
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Bum the Sad posted:I read the actual article with details. Tesla scored higher on the functionality, they only scored GM higher because it nags you more and is thus "safer." Pretty loving dumb. It says the opposite of that. quote:good system should also make it clear when the driver needs to take over the steering. Cadillac’s system not only alerts the driver clearly that it is disengaging—changing its alerts from solid green to flashing blue—but also in some situations can alert the driver well in advance that they’ll need to take over. Thanks to pre-mapped road data, the Super Cruise system knows whether the driver is approaching an upcoming tricky situation, such as a lane merge or off-ramp, giving the driver necessary time to take back control. When Tesla’s Autopilot system no longer has sufficient road information to operate—perhaps the lane lines have disappeared—Autopilot delivers a loud alert to notify the driver that the system is immediately shutting off. quote:If you try to steer around a pothole in a Tesla, however, the auto-steering system will resist, unless the driver applies a significant amount of torque to the steering wheel, after which the system will abruptly shut off, leaving the driver in control. Their point is that the Cadillac nags less because it’s clear about when it can be engaged and provides sufficient warning when it needs to be disengaged as opposed to just giving a loud bong and turning itself off and expecting the driver to be prepared to take over at a moments notice. It actually allows hands free driving on mapped roads because they have driver attention monitoring and some amount of foresight so you don’t need to hang a weight from your steering wheel like an rear end in a top hat to trick the system into not nagging you so you can slam into a divider at 70 mph while you play phone games on your commute.
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Oct 29, 2020 02:16
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Shai-Hulud posted:People seem pretty impressed by it. It seems to manage fine on its own and gives you about 10 seconds to retake control once it can't figure out what to do. You are also not required to monitor it or traffic in any way while it's active unlike with level 2 stuff. There a few things in that line that scare the poo poo out of me. Like not required to monitor traffic. And the "please take control" MomJeans420 posted:Cue tantrum and a predictable abuse video of autopilot in 5... I hope there wont be.
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Oct 29, 2020 02:18
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Bum the Sad posted:I read the actual article with details. Tesla scored higher on the functionality, they only scored GM higher because it nags you more and is thus "safer." Pretty loving dumb. ilkhan fucked around with this message at 02:40 on Oct 29, 2020 |
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Oct 29, 2020 02:37
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It is hard to see a forest through a tree when your car is wrapped around it 
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Oct 29, 2020 02:58
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Did you guys know you can buckle your seatbelt then sit on top of it to get the stupid chime to stop?
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Oct 29, 2020 04:23
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:There a few things in that line that scare the poo poo out of me. Like not required to monitor traffic. And the "please take control" Well for true Level 3 you have to be able to take your attention off the road while still being able to take control quickly. So read a paper or something while the car drives itself. It would still be loving scary though! But imagine doing it at like 180 km/h...
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Oct 29, 2020 08:53
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Xel posted:Regardless of tweets, terms or Waymo, I expect to be able to enable the Tesla FSD checkbox within 6 months (my own guess not Elon's) and have it automate my entire commute based on how well it already performs in those same videos. I don't have left turns that need to avoid parked cars in tight corners in downtown city streets. Dunno what else there is to say since we have different expectations and that's fine since we'll see within time how it plays out. The next 6 months will certainly be very interesting. I'll take you up on this and re-quote in 6 months.
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Oct 29, 2020 11:45
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https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/all-electric-ford-transit-van-debut/ I know it's less sexy than the consumer vehicles we talk about, but I'm watching this thing like a hawk. Truck maintenance and repair costs on our current freightliners is abhorrent, so if this thing can save on both fuel costs and repair costs its going to be a game changer no matter what the upfront cost is.
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Oct 29, 2020 13:26
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Speaking of ludicrously large GM EVs, https://www.autoblog.com/2020/10/29/chevy-k5-blazer-e-electric-crate-motor-package/#slide-2273969quote:Chevrolet Performance builds an electric K5 Blazer to show off upcoming eCrate motor package  my first car was a K-5 Blazer just like this 
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Oct 29, 2020 16:39
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That's awesome. I can't wait to see some of the conversions that can happen when electric drop ins are more widely available
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Oct 29, 2020 16:45
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 Electrician came by this morning to install the outlet and mounted my charger for me. It's cool knowing if I come home from a road trip or something it's only a night's sleep away from being full. Also now I can preheat the car using wall power instead of the car. Granted my daily commute is less than 10 miles but still, it's cool!
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Oct 29, 2020 17:16
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