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Tesseraction posted:Northern Ireland is run by inept clowns, yes, so it would be a mild economic shock but tbh hard Brexit is going to piss into the Irish economy so it would probably be much of a muchness.
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 13:40 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 08:03 |
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Northern Ireland runs a fiscal deficit of approx 11bn euros a year. If it were to be absorbed into Ireland it would add a tax bill of about 4000eur a year to every adult in the Ireland. Thats also not accounting for integration costs, or any additional security costs that could be significant if there was a militant Unionist minority. Any potential unification referendum down South would likely flounder massively on that economic rock. Voters in Ireland might offer lots of Republican/Unification platitudes when asked about it as a general idea today. But very few will be willing to actually pay for it.
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 15:04 |
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Plus the comedy of NI having to metric-ise to match Ireland would be a massive cost unto itself.
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 15:13 |
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Blut posted:Northern Ireland runs a fiscal deficit of approx 11bn euros a year. If it were to be absorbed into Ireland it would add a tax bill of about 4000eur a year to every adult in the Ireland. Thats also not accounting for integration costs, or any additional security costs that could be significant if there was a militant Unionist minority. yeah that's how taxes work, applied equally across the population. Ireland could pay for it tomorrow by telling amazon to pay their loving taxes. A no deal brexit might actually cost more! The fact reunification wouldn't help with that is about as relevant as your own dipshit argument. I mean christ, "I know how to win a referendum, I'll point out it's expensive" *horns.aiff*
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 15:14 |
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United Ireland®, brought to you by Amazon.
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 15:17 |
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Reading you guys, I'm learning about North Koreland, a tiny backwater dictatorship ruled by the Orange Juche ideology.
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 15:19 |
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Spangly A posted:yeah that's how taxes work, applied equally across the population. Amazon's taxes or the cost of no deal Brexit aren't really relevant when it comes down to a legally mandated referendum on whether to accept N.I. back into Ireland or not, though. The "No" side will absolutely make the financial cost the #1 reason to vote no. And polls have already shown that when the financial argument is considered support for unification in the South drops significantly - nevermind how much it'll drop after the massively increased awareness that an organized campaign will generate. People are inherently selfish. Its hard enough to get them to agree to increase taxes in small amounts to pay for things in their own state, nevermind raising them massively to pay for things in a separate entity where 40% of the population don't regard themselves as Irish.
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 15:45 |
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it is profoundly stupid to believe that any republican movement inside a tax haven would be so unable to even glance in the direction of left wing politics that they couldn't respond to a child's understanding of taxation and deficits with "we'll make businesses pay" it doesn't have to be true or viable, it just needs to point out the very obvious insult to the intelligence of the public that goes alongside deficit/population = cost. Ireland seems used enough to handling referenda that there would be some expectation of speaking as if to an adult, from the republican standpoint, in costing things; but this hurts the Ł4000 a head figure way more than it hurts the argument that amazon's back taxes is larger than the deficit. It is not a great argument, it is just superior to the one proposed. It is dull to hear any case whose total lack of insight is only matched by the implicit assertion that 7 million other people are also this lazy and disinterested. The reunification would hinge on the affilliation of minority religious groups of the north way more than it'll hinge on that kind of incessantly patronising appeal to easily-checked bullshit, and protestants do not have an absolutely majority anymore. Outside of an actual campaign, boldly asserting you have anything to say more valuable than just flipping a coin is going to require better than "but money", when "but money" stands astride the world as king of the losing arguments even when it is accurate. I mean I think it'd be No, but that's based on the numbers of those who might not vote being overwhelmingly drawn from republican-sympathetic voters. A major motivational problem requires a strong campaign and serious threats to stability, which is the whole reason the republican camp thinks they have a generational chance with Brexit. Blut posted:
you're a clueless idiot, that's all there is to it.
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 15:51 |
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Spangly A posted:it is profoundly stupid to believe that any republican movement inside a tax haven would be so unable to even glance in the direction of left wing politics that they couldn't respond to a child's understanding of taxation and deficits with "we'll make businesses pay" Ireland has never had a left wing government in its entire history of independence. "We'll make businesses pay for unification" is not an argument that will fly in a country that has spent 90 years voting in center right, business friendly parties into literally every single government as either the sole, or majority partner. Every major successful Irish political party is also rabidly in favour of helping multinationals evade tax by minimizing the corporate tax rate - they're not going to even consider raising taxes on them. Any unification costs will have to be met by either government spending cuts, or tax increases. Both of which are huge vote losers. "the affilliation of minority religious groups of the north" will be of no relevance in Ireland - they won't have a vote in the referendum. You are aware that both Northern Ireland, and Ireland, legally have to hold separate referenda on any potential unification? And it has to pass in both?
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 16:14 |
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Everyone knows that Ireland would just make the EU budget pay for it, while refusing to collect the taxes that the EU ordered it to collect.
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 16:26 |
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Blut posted:"the affilliation of minority religious groups of the north" will be of no relevance in Ireland - they won't have a vote in the referendum. You are aware that both Northern Ireland, and Ireland, legally have to hold separate referenda on any potential unification? And it has to pass in both? Im talking about reunification, which is why you chose not to quote the preceeding sentence. If your every argument relies on willfully misunderstanding basic sentences then I'd not trust you to talk about the motivations of a goldfish, let alone people. If 4000 euros a head works for you, that's great. You're very below average tho Cat Mattress posted:Everyone knows that Ireland would just make the EU budget pay for it, while refusing to collect the taxes that the EU ordered it to collect. this would just make it funny
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 16:38 |
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Blut posted:People are inherently selfish. Actually your mom is pretty generous OP.
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 17:12 |
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Spangly A posted:Im talking about reunification, which is why you chose not to quote the preceeding sentence. If your every argument relies on willfully misunderstanding basic sentences then I'd not trust you to talk about the motivations of a goldfish, let alone people. If 4000 euros a head works for you, that's great. You're very below average tho I see you've conceded the ridiculousness of your "WE'LL MAKE AMAZON PAY" argument, thats a good start. Well your "preceeding sentence" to that quote was "It is dull to hear any case whose total lack of insight is only matched by the implicit assertion that 7 million other people are also this lazy and disinterested." - which given the population of Ireland is 4.5mn I felt it best to leave alone to its own devices. If you instead you meant your full sentence, you said: "The reunification would hinge on the affilliation of minority religious groups of the north way more than it'll hinge on that kind of incessantly patronising appeal to easily-checked bullshit, and protestants do not have an absolutely majority anymore. " Which shows a complete lack of understanding of the unification process in Ireland, given minority religious groups of Northern Ireland will not get a vote in any referendum in Ireland on unification.
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 17:14 |
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Blut posted:People are inherently selfish. I'd argue that there is a difference between self interest and 'selfishness' as commonly used. Self interest keeps you alive. Selfishness is something displayed by those who care nothing for others in any circumstance. Everyone displays self interest. The truly selfish are a rare and modern phenomenon because they have become so visible to us. They are politicians and CEO's.
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 17:26 |
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Blut posted:I see you've conceded the ridiculousness of your "WE'LL MAKE AMAZON PAY" argument, thats a good start. I didn't make a "amazon should pay" argument. I said it's a good comeback to 4000 per head, which is clearly something that any political party can deal with (and has, in recent history). It's what I'm getting at when I'm saying you don't seem to realise how thick you are. Everything else you posted is just wrong for no sane reason so I've got even less chance of grasping what you're getting at, beyond you not seeming to understand that I'm talking about the problems facing a reunification vote, which by definition includes both sides of the border (and minority concerns making up a swing vote in the north). Would it help if I kept repeating island of Ireland? probably not Imagine grammar policing and smugposting when you won't stop demonstrating that you can't read, lmao. Regarde Aduck posted:Everyone displays self interest. The truly selfish are a rare and modern phenomenon because they have become so visible to us. They are politicians and CEO's. Eh, there are a bunch of general traits possessed by many on the right that are a big part of their inability to understand that they're more foreign in their own homes than refugees are. Selfishness, and believing people are selfish, show up here a lot. The people are inherently selfish argument, then, is a great way to predict who's just a bit of civil disquiet away from joining extremist right wing movements. e; im going to clarify since this argument is going all over the place without blut understanding really basic poo poo, that if anyone thinks lying about public spending being the same as a direct tax increase is some masterful argument that not a single pro-unification politician could hope to defeat, they aren't going to say anything of value. The lack of united irish identity argument is entirely true and I agree with it, which is why I made it repeatedly Spangly A fucked around with this message at 18:20 on Aug 17, 2018 |
# ? Aug 17, 2018 17:53 |
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Not EU politics proper, but , there's a Brexit: The Videogame out there. https://www.gog.com/game/not_tonight
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 17:58 |
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Aren't the Northern Irish and the Irish economy enormously entangled? The cost of not putting everything under the same roof and having Northern Ireland turn into North Korea alongside the rest of the UK might be greater than the Irish covering the NI deficit while they get their economy in a better place. Sharing a name should also make the Irish a bit more interested in NI not turning to complete poo poo, just because a lot of people will only hear "Ireland" and decide to stay away from the island in general. Rampant smuggling and possibly terrorism isn't good for business either. Economics aside, there has to be a contingent that would vote yes just to kick the Sassenach while they're down. But maybe they'd be balanced by people not wanting a bunch of Protestants in Ireland.
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 18:19 |
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If ‘the sassenach’ is the rest of the uk, I’m not sure Irish unification represents much of a kicking.
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# ? Aug 17, 2018 20:21 |
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Spangly A posted:I didn't make a "amazon should pay" argument. I said it's a good comeback to 4000 per head, which is clearly something that any political party can deal with (and has, in recent history). It's what I'm getting at when I'm saying you don't seem to realise how thick you are. Everything else you posted is just wrong for no sane reason so I've got even less chance of grasping what you're getting at, beyond you not seeming to understand that I'm talking about the problems facing a reunification vote, which by definition includes both sides of the border (and minority concerns making up a swing vote in the north). Would it help if I kept repeating island of Ireland? probably not Its not my fault if the facts don't agree with your wacky views. But hey, keep on raging away if it makes you happy! A Buttery Pastry posted:Aren't the Northern Irish and the Irish economy enormously entangled? The cost of not putting everything under the same roof and having Northern Ireland turn into North Korea alongside the rest of the UK might be greater than the Irish covering the NI deficit while they get their economy in a better place. Sharing a name should also make the Irish a bit more interested in NI not turning to complete poo poo, just because a lot of people will only hear "Ireland" and decide to stay away from the island in general. Rampant smuggling and possibly terrorism isn't good for business either. This doesn't show the full economic picture but its a useful illustration of the approx ratios of interlinkage. Northern Ireland is pretty hosed if theres a hard Brexit no matter what. It either a) stays part of the UK fully and takes a huge hit on trade with the rest of Ireland and the EU, or b) if the UK customs border ends up being in the Irish Sea and Northern Ireland is on the outside it takes a huge hit on trade with the UK. The analysis I've read estimates a 12% contraction in the N.I. economy from scenario a). I haven't seen any for scenario b), but I'd imagine its even higher. The most recent poll in Ireland that asked if people would vote for a unification even if there was an increase in taxes to pay for it had 31% in favour, 44% against, and 25% undecided. Not unwinnable by any means, but far less than many would suspect. In Northern Ireland support is even lower though - it usually polls at only about 20-25% in favour of unification. Brexit will definitely bump that up a bit, but probably not over 50% any time soon. In regards to kicking the Brits while they're down anti-British feeling has decreased massively every decade in Ireland as memories of the war of independence slip out of living memory. And as the country became richer than the UK. Its hard to remain bitter over the past when your economy is doing better than the colonial master. Blut fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Aug 17, 2018 |
# ? Aug 17, 2018 21:28 |
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Cat Mattress posted:Not EU politics proper, but , there's a Brexit: The Videogame out there. quote:In an alternative Britain where Brexit talks have collapsed, an extreme far-right government has taken power By "alternative", you mean "very near future", right?
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# ? Aug 18, 2018 14:07 |
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I don't really know what they mean, it's not really coherent. It's a sort of Papers, Please where you're a bouncer trying to undermine the government? I don't know how that makes sense, I haven't played the game and I'm not endorsing it; I'm just amused that it exists.
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# ? Aug 18, 2018 14:52 |
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In the recent revitalised debates about the economics of unification the North harmonizing corporation tax rates to the low low tax haven rates south of the border is taken as given and necessary to stimulate a new wave of FDI to supplant subvention, partly cause that's the broadly embraced mainstream economic thought in Irish politics - even SF (who are part of gue/ngl) have resisted calling for a corporation tax hike and have supported rate harmonization. That's usually said in the same breath that of course the EU will obviously give us hefty assistance grants at the same time...
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# ? Aug 18, 2018 16:10 |
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Blut posted:This doesn't show the full economic picture but its a useful illustration of the approx ratios of interlinkage. Northern Ireland is pretty hosed if theres a hard Brexit no matter what. It either a) stays part of the UK fully and takes a huge hit on trade with the rest of Ireland and the EU, or b) if the UK customs border ends up being in the Irish Sea and Northern Ireland is on the outside it takes a huge hit on trade with the UK. The analysis I've read estimates a 12% contraction in the N.I. economy from scenario a). I haven't seen any for scenario b), but I'd imagine its even higher. Blut posted:The most recent poll in Ireland that asked if people would vote for a unification even if there was an increase in taxes to pay for it had 31% in favour, 44% against, and 25% undecided. Not unwinnable by any means, but far less than many would suspect. In Northern Ireland support is even lower though - it usually polls at only about 20-25% in favour of unification. Brexit will definitely bump that up a bit, but probably not over 50% any time soon. "Ireland is part of the UK" "Ireland should leave the EU to make things easier for the UK" "The GFA doesn't matter" "The UK should invade Ireland post-Brexit"
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# ? Aug 18, 2018 17:27 |
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Cat Mattress posted:I don't really know what they mean, it's not really coherent. It's a sort of Papers, Please where you're a bouncer trying to undermine the government? I don't know how that makes sense, I haven't played the game and I'm not endorsing it; I'm just amused that it exists. Played a couple of hours last night and you're just a dude. You're not really trying to do anything except survive and get your visa extended, at least for the part of the first chapter I've played.
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# ? Aug 18, 2018 17:32 |
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A Buttery Pastry posted:From what people have been saying in the UKMT, there's a lot of agricultural products being shipped back and forth over the border - but if it's the same company doing it, then that wouldn't show up as exports, right? Basically poo poo like Republican cows going to a NI slaughterhouse, then being transported back to Ireland again. I suppose just having all that in-country wouldn't be a huge drain to the RoI though - but it'd mean NI would suffer even more. The cross border trade for every-day products and poo poo though, that's gonna be a huge headache. Blut is of course wrong and also a liar, of the three polls in june 2018 he picked the one which had the widest range for undecideds (which, as I said, naturally favours the status quo for now), not the most recent. The other two were 3% and 5% leads for Against. There have been a lot of polls in 2018, and the closing of the gap from Ipsos' 48% lead for Against in 2013 is remarkable. There would almost certainly need to be a big push towards a unified Irish identity to have any hope of cracking the north whatsoever. Wiki has some great detail. The Ashcroft polls, seperately here have remarkable detail; 49% favour remaining with the UK from the north, 9% of the republic favour no reunification vs 56% that do need to be told it's practical and 35% "gently caress it, have a crack". There's an overwhelming majority supporting unification in their lives 63% of leave voters don't give a poo poo about NI as long as they leave is another big takeaway that'd be played a lot kustomkarkommando posted:In the recent revitalised debates about the economics of unification the North harmonizing corporation tax rates to the low low tax haven rates south of the border is taken as given and necessary to stimulate a new wave of FDI to supplant subvention, partly cause that's the broadly embraced mainstream economic thought in Irish politics - even SF (who are part of gue/ngl) have resisted calling for a corporation tax hike and have supported rate harmonization. It only takes one narcissist to fill everyone's cheerios with piss. I'm still not sold on the idea it'll happen soon (and if Brexit is required I'd rather it didn't, all told), but the idea it's impossible again does not jibe with how the world is behaving right of late.
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# ? Aug 18, 2018 18:17 |
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A Buttery Pastry posted:From what people have been saying in the UKMT, there's a lot of agricultural products being shipped back and forth over the border - but if it's the same company doing it, then that wouldn't show up as exports, right? Basically poo poo like Republican cows going to a NI slaughterhouse, then being transported back to Ireland again. I suppose just having all that in-country wouldn't be a huge drain to the RoI though - but it'd mean NI would suffer even more. The cross border trade for every-day products and poo poo though, that's gonna be a huge headache. I'm not sure how that would show up on exports/imports, to be honest. But yes, either way the many businesses that have operations on both sides of the border would be screwed completely by a hard border between N.I. and Ireland. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Public_opinion -- has a pretty decent outline of public polling, including some more recent ones. The boneheaded statements by Rees-Mogg et al though aren't making too much of a difference in opinion in Ireland, because most people (of the minority who care) are aware of how swivel eyed the Tory loons are. In N.I. its having a bigger influence, and will probably have more of a lasting impact in damaging how the Unionist community feels they're thought of/cared about in the UK. kustomkarkommando posted:In the recent revitalised debates about the economics of unification the North harmonizing corporation tax rates to the low low tax haven rates south of the border is taken as given and necessary to stimulate a new wave of FDI to supplant subvention, partly cause that's the broadly embraced mainstream economic thought in Irish politics - even SF (who are part of gue/ngl) have resisted calling for a corporation tax hike and have supported rate harmonization. Yeah, the fact that even Sinn Fein of all parties have repeatedly come out in favour of maintaining the low corporate tax rate in Ireland is why Spangly's naive "Republicans will make Amazon pay for unification!!" argument is so lol. The problem for N.I. is even if they had some sort of special economic status within the UK that allowed for a localized low corporate tax rate they'd still be very unattractive to MNCs, if theres a hard Brexit, because of having no EU market access. Or, even in the other hard Brexit scenario of the UK customs border being in the Irish Sea I don't think N.I. lowering its corporate tax rate would help massively either. Limerick and Cork have the same corporate tax rate as the Dublin region, but still only get a fraction of its FDI. Belfast/N.I. wouldn't do much better.
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# ? Aug 19, 2018 12:16 |
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Blut posted:I'm not sure how that would show up on exports/imports, to be honest. But yes, either way the many businesses that have operations on both sides of the border would be screwed completely by a hard border between N.I. and Ireland. Yeah it’s pretty how Unionists are just now discovering that yes, they’re actually expendable colonials.
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# ? Aug 19, 2018 23:53 |
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Feel free to brutally correct me Brits, but it does seem like the ScotsAngloWelsh all seem to have about as much regard and thought saved for NI as Americans do about Puerto Rico.
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# ? Aug 20, 2018 02:44 |
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Mark blyth comments on the Greece deal: https://www.thepressproject.gr/mnimonio/en/details.php?aid=133037 quote:The devil, as they say in English, lies in the details. Being ‘back in the markets’, ‘turning a page,’ even declaring ‘the end of the Greek Crisis’ have all become commonplace expressions over the past few weeks. But what does this substantively mean? It means that an economy that has shrunk by around 25% saw, due to that shrinkage, its debts go up by about the same amount, despite near 100 billion Euro in debt being wiped off in 2012. Current outstanding Greek debt stands at 343 billion Euro. It now needs to pay a large chunk of that back to get back to where it was in 2008, with 109% debt to GDP.
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# ? Aug 20, 2018 08:07 |
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quote:People with assets struggle to understand the rise of populism.
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# ? Aug 20, 2018 08:12 |
Grape posted:Feel free to brutally correct me Brits, but it does seem like the ScotsAngloWelsh all seem to have about as much regard and thought saved for NI as Americans do about Puerto Rico. The self-imposed crisis in Stormont that has led to two years of the assembly not wanting to reform to mop up its own piss from almost literally setting fire to taxpayer money is so unsympathetic to even a casual observer (esp given the general culture of sleaze between all the Nama deal stuff, happy families bullshit wrt spads and MLAs etc.) that the view is not so much "whatever" as "gently caress em" if mainlanders take an interest. Doesn't help that their most triumphalist racists, who also hate women, call themselves British which they aren't, and get much more government spending than anyone outside of London in a time of massive austerity.
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# ? Aug 20, 2018 08:41 |
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His Divine Shadow posted:Mark blyth comments on the Greece deal: I agree with the broad thrust of the article, but still, almost nobody in Greece other than maybe Varoufakis is calling for default, which suggests Blyth is wrong about this. Also, talking about the ESM as "an opaque private financial institution housed in Luxemburg " is the type of cheap rhetorical trick that should be below Blyth; there is nothing opaque about the ESM to anyone who has professionally studied the Greek debt crisis. Besides, it's also wrong: the ESM is an international organization created under public international law, and its board of directors and board of governors are appointed by its member states.
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# ? Aug 20, 2018 08:51 |
Tesseraction posted:Northern Ireland is run by inept clowns, yes
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# ? Aug 20, 2018 08:53 |
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Pluskut Tukker posted:I agree with the broad thrust of the article, but still, almost nobody in Greece other than maybe Varoufakis is calling for default, which suggests Blyth is wrong about this. Also, talking about the ESM as "an opaque private financial institution housed in Luxemburg " is the type of cheap rhetorical trick that should be below Blyth; there is nothing opaque about the ESM to anyone who has professionally studied the Greek debt crisis. Besides, it's also wrong: the ESM is an international organization created under public international law, and its board of directors and board of governors are appointed by its member states. if you have to professionally study something it by definition is opaque imo he didn't say secretive or hidden
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# ? Aug 20, 2018 10:09 |
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jBrereton posted:It's been nearly two years since it was run by itself, because they decided to just walk away from their responsibilities. It's still run by inept clowns tho.
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# ? Aug 20, 2018 10:12 |
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Goa Tse-tung posted:if you have to professionally study something it by definition is opaque imo That is pretty much the insinuation though. You also don't really need a title to understand that the ESM is the mechanism through which Euro area member states of the EU sent the bailout loans to Greece, you could also just look at the webpage. But Blyth is a professor of political economy at an Ivy League university who has edited an academic volume on the future of the Euro and speeched extensively about the Greek debt crisis so it pretty much is his job to know this stuff.
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# ? Aug 20, 2018 10:31 |
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Pluskut Tukker posted:That is pretty much the insinuation though. You also don't really need a title to understand that the ESM is the mechanism through which Euro area member states of the EU sent the bailout loans to Greece, you could also just look at the webpage. But Blyth is a professor of political economy at an Ivy League university who has edited an academic volume on the future of the Euro and speeched extensively about the Greek debt crisis so it pretty much is his job to know this stuff. What do you think of his main argument? And the next poster's question? Edit. Bc being acerbic aint useful. Apologies. Dawncloack fucked around with this message at 11:25 on Aug 20, 2018 |
# ? Aug 20, 2018 11:01 |
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Although I am curious - how much of the ESM's decision making process and internal debates are we privy to?
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# ? Aug 20, 2018 11:11 |
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Pluskut Tukker posted:I agree with the broad thrust of the article, but still, almost nobody in Greece other than maybe Varoufakis is calling for default, which suggests Blyth is wrong about this. Also, talking about the ESM as "an opaque private financial institution housed in Luxemburg " is the type of cheap rhetorical trick that should be below Blyth; there is nothing opaque about the ESM to anyone who has professionally studied the Greek debt crisis. Besides, it's also wrong: the ESM is an international organization created under public international law, and its board of directors and board of governors are appointed by its member states. I feel like Blyth is getting into the "huffs too many of his own farts" phase of being a popular public speaker. Let's just hope he doesn't get as bad as Neil DeGrasse Tyson.
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# ? Aug 20, 2018 11:23 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 08:03 |
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Dawncloack posted:Fine. Like I said, I agree with the broad thrust of his argument, which is that the exit from the bailout still leaves Greece with a very heavy burden that it will be carrying for decades, and that it is not at all certain, indeed rather unlikely, that it will be able to. However, we do not know how the next few decades will turn out; maybe the next Greek government will turn out to be more successful at implementing the kinds of reform that lead to long-term growth, maybe after the can has been kicked down the road for long enough people will have forgotten all about the media-generated stereotypes of 'lazy Greeks' and there will be more political space for debt relief, or maybe sometime in 2040 the EU will decide to extend the bailout another few decades. These are the positive scenarios; it is sadly also possible that Turkey implodes or climate change will turn Greece into an unliveable place and it will all come crashing down sooner than we think. But it is true that even in the best-case scenario the primary surplus that Greece will be required to run will be an ever-present fiscal drag on growth and thus on the possibility for real improvement for its people. However, the likelihood that things in Greece will be poo poo for a very long time does not make the option to default any more attractive, which is also why it wasn't done. Even a very poo poo situation can be turned into a worse situation if you choose an option that kills your banks and pension funds, closes down access to financial markets, forces EU exit, and leaves you politically isolated in a very unstable neighbourhood. I think most politicians in Greece realise that getting rid of the debt may be nirvana, but you don't get there without going through hell first. Anyway, I would recommend this editorial from the Greek site Macropolis, which is also good on the failures of Greek politicians themselves: quote:This is not the time for those who have been directly involved in managing the crisis to claim victory or for those who have been observing developments from a comfortable distance to argue that their views have been vindicated. It would be better if they spent some time thinking about the ways in which they have exacerbated the situation. Orange Devil posted:I feel like Blyth is getting into the "huffs too many of his own farts" phase of being a popular public speaker. Let's just hope he doesn't get as bad as Neil DeGrasse Tyson. Totally agreed. I think the reason that I find it so disappointing is that Blyth has produced so much important work and good speeches that I really expect better from him than lazy rhetorical tricks. Tesseraction posted:Although I am curious - how much of the ESM's decision making process and internal debates are we privy to? The ESM's decisionmaking process is basically a direct reflection of the EU's decisionmaking process, so whenever you hear EU political leaders or leaders of the member states talking about what to do with the Greek debt they are basically talking about the ESM. The ESM in a sense does not really take action independently from the member states. I suppose you could level the same complaint about lack of transparancy about it as you could at the Eurogroup, but the basic political positions taken by the member states aren't a secret. Pluskut Tukker fucked around with this message at 11:47 on Aug 20, 2018 |
# ? Aug 20, 2018 11:38 |