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https://twitter.com/chuangcn/status/1512816748667420675 poo poo looks bad tbh
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Apr 10, 2022 04:54
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Unormal posted:Yeah I really can't think of anything different in terms of information distirbution between 1962 and 2022 i meant the covid numbers, i was ignoring his pivoting to a completely different topic fwiw
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Apr 10, 2022 04:55
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this is getting so hosed up that my parents started talking about it after taking some tearful calls.
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Apr 10, 2022 05:10
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Varinn posted:What makes this different, then? Why aren't they able to lie about these outbreaks, if they were able to cover up massive outbreaks before? It happened in the largest city on earth with a wealthy phone using population? Also the center of any possible resistance to winnie the pooh. You think if someone dies of covid in a Xinjang concentration camp they are going to break the 0 covid lie? LOL I guess arguing over unknowable stats is better than talking about people dying cause they cant use dialysis machines Despera fucked around with this message at 06:10 on Apr 10, 2022 |
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Apr 10, 2022 05:52
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They jailed doctor for just talking about covid in the begining. Take a brave doctor to go against the emperors commands. Even if one did theyd probably just get disappeared. That said I hope the number is true but id be hopeless nieve to believe so.
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Apr 10, 2022 06:25
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Despera posted:It happened in the largest city on earth with a wealthy phone using population? Also the center of any possible resistance to winnie the pooh. So up until now, covid has been ravaging every area of China EXCEPT densely populated urban zones where people are in extremely close quarters, and its been completely covered up? Despera posted:They jailed doctor for just talking about covid in the begining. Take a brave doctor to go against the emperors commands. Even if one did theyd probably just get disappeared. That said I hope the number is true but id be hopeless nieve to believe so. lmao come on, you're not supposed to be this obvious about it
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Apr 10, 2022 08:19
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like this process of someone saying something completely ridiculous and false on its face, and then when challenged they just go "well x or y happened so its IMPOSSIBLE to know the truth, so you know maybe its true" is such a common thing in this thread that its worth drilling down on one of these posts without being distracted
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Apr 10, 2022 08:24
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Like most countries, China's official death count is probably lower than the real count. That being said, you could add two zeros on the end of it and they'd still have a much more successful track record on a per capita basis compared to most western countries.
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Apr 10, 2022 08:25
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are they still reporting zero deaths in the latest outbreak?
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Apr 10, 2022 08:27
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Mantis42 posted:Like most countries, China's official death count is probably lower than the real count. That being said, you could add two zeros on the end of it and they'd still have a much more successful track record on a per capita basis compared to most western countries. Yeah, I want them to succeed so that people don't die. Scoring political points on a tragedy like this is wrong. I just fear they've hit a tipping point.
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Apr 10, 2022 08:30
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It would probably be quite bad if Omicron received 1.4 billion new vectors for further mutation, so for the sake of self preservation-if nothing else-it would probably be in everyone's best interest to hope that the lockdowns succeed.
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Apr 10, 2022 08:39
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Herstory Begins Now posted:are they still reporting zero deaths in the latest outbreak? Yes, but there's only a few hundred symptomatic cases so that's not unthinkable
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Apr 10, 2022 08:53
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Neurolimal posted:It would probably be quite bad if Omicron received 1.4 billion new vectors for further mutation, so for the sake of self preservation-if nothing else-it would probably be in everyone's best interest to hope that the lockdowns succeed. Yeah but the lockdown can't go on forever. Like what's their end game here. If it's waiting until vaccinations rates are as high as they can realistically get, sure super good aim, very respectable approach. If they are aware it's going to spread and are just trying to make sure when a mass outbreak happens they can make sure it's slow enough to not overload their healthcare system, not the best way to go about it, but again very good and logical aim. If it's just to say we can keep doing mass lock downs from now until eternity, like what? China's not a small island nation where like "technically" that might be possible, it's a massive country with the largest population in the world, that does poo poo loads of trading, to try and lockout covid for ever with no end goal just like isn't a realistic thing.
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Apr 10, 2022 10:22
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Daduzi posted:Yes, but there's only a few hundred symptomatic cases so that's not unthinkable "SHANGHAI, April 9 (Reuters) - The major Chinese financial centre of Shanghai reported 22,609 new asymptomatic coronavirus cases and 1,015 new symptomatic cases on April 8, the local government said on Saturday. The number of asymptomatic cases was up from 20,398 a day earlier. The number of symptomatic cases also rose from 824." https://www.reuters.com/world/china/shanghai-reports-22609-new-asymptomatic-coronavirus-cases-1015-symptomatic-cases-2022-04-09/
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Apr 10, 2022 11:43
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https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/news/TrackingtheEpidemic.htm They don't count Hong Kong cases and deaths for some reason? Also that high of a case count and zero deaths seems, uh, beyond suspect.
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Apr 10, 2022 13:13
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Yeah, OK, hadn't checked the numbers recently. That *is* suspicious, though two mitigating factors might be that the numbers only spiked relatively recently, and the cases have been found through testing the entire city so there may be mild symptomatic cases that otherwise wouldn't have been identified (making for a lower case fatality rate). Honestly I don't know enough to say either way.
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Apr 10, 2022 13:20
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The way they count COVID deaths is if they don't have any other pre existing conditions and if they don't die from a symptom of COVID, so pretty much when they run out of any other possible excuses to classify the death. For example, this article says a death of a 71 year old during the outbreak was classified as death from chest infection. China officially recorded no deaths from Feb 2021 to Feb 2022, and the 2 death cases on March 18 were located in Jilin province, so officially no one has died of COVID in Shanghai yet, statistically impossible if you compare the data with Hong Kong. Although less elderly people in HK are vaccinated compared with China, the ratio distribution is similar (63% vs 59% over 80s unvaccinated) . There is also the option of the mRNA Pfizer vaccine in HK which China doesn't have, meaning elderly need to be Sinovac fully vaccinated with booster to achieve the highest level protection which the Bloomberg article states only 20% of 80s have. https://twitter.com/kjoules/status/1512621105038897156 Even when the pandemic in HK was raging the daily case numbers were only useful as a rough guide rather than a definite sum, I know of relatives that had it and didn't report/still went about their daily business. In China, this is even more so. Kill All Cops fucked around with this message at 18:40 on Apr 10, 2022 |
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Apr 10, 2022 18:35
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in chutzpah: https://twitter.com/ananthkrishnan/status/1512983813798121474 (the financial news is basically the liberal platform now, it's not that shocking. Still.) that aside: https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1513139213541457921 Whilst the incidents of starvation and medical disruption in Shanghai are undoubtly real, it still seems to the case that "most" communities can arrange group buys and at least obtain survival rations reasonably ("most" is doing a lot of work here, granted; "most" people would survive Covid too etc. ) and given that urban residents are now maintaining their own dry goods stock, the frequency of such incidents in future lockdowns will diminish too, but even in a 100% starvation-free lockdown, it's still not sustainable. I give it a matter of weeks before we hear of the first major city to re-lockdown after lifting measures (not counting the land border cities which have already experienced this last year)
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Apr 10, 2022 18:55
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Kill All Cops posted:Even when the pandemic in HK was raging the daily case numbers were only useful as a rough guide rather than a definite sum, I know of relatives that had it and didn't report/still went about their daily business. In China, yes, but not in Shanghai where there's near daily tests of every person in the city. There's no possibility of having it and not reporting it here.
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Apr 11, 2022 01:31
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https://twitter.com/medriva/status/1513306809154609159 looks like the horse has left the barn. it's over. let's see if the CCP realizes this and ends these ridiculous lockdowns.
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Apr 11, 2022 02:26
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I'm in Shanghai and, to keep myself and colleagues informed, made an overview of how the cases are developing. It's all using the official numbers so probably take it with a grain of salt. But there's nothing else available to use: https://rpubs.com/dclaszen/shanghai_covid Acceleration of growth seems to have stopped in Pudong, but not so much in other districts. And everything can change within a day or two depending on whether they've had tests in a backlog or whatever else was going on at for example March the 25th. Would need to see a slowdown on a longer timeframe before it's worth anything. It's also still spreading into new areas. If you count the number of new unique places (streets and street numbers, communities) that are released each day, then most districts are still adding previously unlisted neighbourhoods to their list of infected places every day, even at an increasing rate. This means that either the data is lagging a lot, or that we're seeing cases that had a longer incubation period, or that covid is spreading across communities/streets regardless of the lockdown. Omicron is supposed to have a shorter incubation period. I might try and use some modelling to predict growth, but that's gonna be really inaccurate. Last time I tried fitting a logistic curve it didn't work at all because everything was still growing exponentially.
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Apr 11, 2022 04:53
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https://twitter.com/RealSexyCyborg/status/1513326953075392515
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Apr 11, 2022 05:35
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Back during SARS: https://www.neha.org/sites/default/files/jeh/JEH5.06-Feature-Environmental-Transmission-of-SARS.pdf (the Amoy Gardens outbreak, noting that Hong Kong plumbing code does have traps) quote:In interviews with officials from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Health Department, Amoy Gardens residents indicated that they often smelled sewer gas in bathrooms. Health department officials quickly identified bathroom floor drains as the problem. Water flows frequently through toilet, sink, and bathtub drains, and the traps for those fixtures remain filled and sealed. Residents at Amoy Gardens told health department officials that they cleaned bathroom floors by mopping, however. Because mop cleaning does not generate water flow, bathroom floor drains were left dry and unsealed. In addition, WHO found that some residents had removed traps and others had connected their own fixtures (such as washing machines) to the sanitary riser without installing trap seals (Tilgner, Flick, Grolla, & Feldman, 2003). A rather exceptional case but Shanghai is a big place and it's not hard to imagine, given the lack of P-traps endemic in even higher-quality Chinese residential plumbing to begin with, that a similar situation could occur in select buildings, much as with the older Spanish buildings described in the El Pais article It does seem generally true that Chinese public messaging and measures currently care too much about fomites and not enough about aerosolization in enclosed spaces
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Apr 11, 2022 06:20
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Well I'm going to go profusely vomit right now
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Apr 11, 2022 08:23
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Slow News Day posted:https://twitter.com/medriva/status/1513306809154609159 As someone living in the UK, 26,000 doesn't sound that huge, but also feels like it doesn't demand the entire city to be on lockdown. Is this spread to almost every community by now?
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Apr 11, 2022 08:36
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Not So Fast posted:As someone living in the UK, 26,000 doesn't sound that huge, but also feels like it doesn't demand the entire city to be on lockdown. Is this spread to almost every community by now? how would you get back to 0 cases from 26,000 without locking down the city?
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Apr 11, 2022 08:48
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fart simpson posted:how would you get back to 0 cases from 26,000 without locking down the city? My understanding is that prior to this, the strategy was to lockdown communities and not the entire cities, which is why I asked if its basically spread to all of them.
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Apr 11, 2022 08:54
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fart simpson posted:how would you get back to 0 cases from 26,000 without locking down the city? Hong Kong went from 50k+ to under 2k in around 5 weeks without a lockdown
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Apr 11, 2022 08:56
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Kill All Cops posted:Hong Kong went from 50k+ to under 2k in around 5 weeks without a lockdown The fear of that I think is that it would require them to establish a border around Shanghai as rigid as Hong Kong's boundary, lest the virus escape to the rest of the country. Might be difficult to ensure that is actually enforced but all the remaining options carry some cost with them at this point
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Apr 11, 2022 09:15
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they should do that bugs bunny sawing off florida thing but for shanghai
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Apr 11, 2022 09:23
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a reminder from something well-repeated early in the pandemic: the tests are not positive until someone after is already contagious for a couple of days, so a high case count suggests that uncontrolled community transmission has been going on already with very high case counts, both a "obsessive focus on positive case count" and a "bend the curve" ICU capacity strategy imply a lockdown, the implied strategy only changes with lower case counts. An ICU capacity strategy allows nursing a low but constantly nonzero case count there's something to be said for a "dynamic zero" strategy which is still sane re: households with some members positive and some negative, households with dependents requiring full-time care, and households with pets. I speculated previously that the availability of mass testing as an option is deranging the Shanghai policy response - too much temptation to try to be cute with smart differentiation
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Apr 11, 2022 10:07
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A big flaming stink posted:The fear of that I think is that it would require them to establish a border around Shanghai as rigid as Hong Kong's boundary, lest the virus escape to the rest of the country. Might be difficult to ensure that is actually enforced but all the remaining options carry some cost with them at this point I'm surprised that's not their first reaction this week, it does feel like the response is failing towards Wuhan 2.0.
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Apr 11, 2022 10:16
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Not So Fast posted:As someone living in the UK, 26,000 doesn't sound that huge, but also feels like it doesn't demand the entire city to be on lockdown. Is this spread to almost every community by now? Pretty much, yeah. They've just started publishing which communities haven't had a case in the past 7 days (people in those communities can go outside in the community itself) and it's consistently around 5-10% of the total. Meanwhile my community somehow manages to get a new case every loving day meaning I'm on a rolling lockdown.
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Apr 11, 2022 19:58
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https://twitter.com/danwwang/status/1513148803821424640 this is dark as poo poo
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Apr 12, 2022 05:27
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i'm not surprised that the chinese government is being like this or that the situation is extremely hosed up, but i'll never really get used to reactionary messaging that boils down to "how dare you think this looks extremely hosed up" which i'll have to keep in mind as the imagery coming out of this keeps getting crazier
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Apr 12, 2022 05:50
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Kavros posted:i'm not surprised that the chinese government is being like this or that the situation is extremely hosed up, but i'll never really get used to reactionary messaging that boils down to "how dare you think this looks extremely hosed up" It all feels rather familiar, really.
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Apr 12, 2022 07:06
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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/13/business/china-covid-zero-shanghai.htmlquote:China’s ‘Zero-Covid’ Mess Proves Autocracy Hurts Everyone
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Apr 13, 2022 14:37
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quote:In the past two years, they followed Beijing’s cue and attacked critics of its pandemic policy. They rallied around Beijing, which increasingly applied the social suppression mechanism in Xinjiang to the rest of the country in the name of pandemic control. Now, many of them are suffering from the consequences but, unlike Wuhan, there are no more citizen journalists or large volunteer groups to help them. Fascinating, and terrifying. It has been truly interesting to watch authoritarian regimes around the world and how they've responded to the pandemic. In Russia it appears to be "pandemic, what pandemic? nothing happening here" while in China the CCP has gone full absolute-social-control on their citizens.
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Apr 13, 2022 16:04
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https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1514474249565933569 https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1514474261767143426 https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1514474266691260418 although such policies reduce the wealth of the country over time relative to the counterfactual, they're also better for social stability (by allowing unemployment to be responsively nailed to the floor in every short run: just gas the supply side a little) mainly, this is remarkable in how merely naming a thing in the national discourse (grey rhino, dual circulation, goal of raising national consumption) is not sufficient to rationally orient policy around it if the institutional inertia is large enough. One can see the grey rhino, and yet.
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Apr 14, 2022 07:40
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https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1514714956456992776 psycho poo poo when are the chinese going to rise up against CCP's brutal oppression
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Apr 15, 2022 02:56
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