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Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

Spokes is my current scum pick. Hal is a distant second.

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Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


Hal? Spokes? The Ghost of CCKeane?

Spokes
Jan 9, 2010

Thanks for a MONSTER of an avatar, Awful Survivor Mods!

Sandwolf posted:

Hal? Spokes? The Ghost of CCKeane?

Here's where I am:

IA is clearly town.

I think Grandi is the scummiest player remaining, but outside of you, nobody else seems to see that.

I've had town vibes from you most of the game, but Hal's actions have been much more pro-town. I would much rather vote for Grandi than you in a vacuum but you're my top two and I think there's a realistic chance you're scum, so that's what's going into my vote. If it's not you, I'm 99% sure it's Grandi but I'd also put a good amount of time into analyzing Hal before I vote Grandi if you get confirmed town since you've been so persistent on Hal.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Hey now I’m actually voting for grandicap!

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


It’s true, and part of me wants to follow the lylo logic of I haven’t been hammered and I know I’m not scum, I can’t imagine IA is scum, so spokes is scum? But I also know Hal and Grandi are not so careless

But also this is 1/3 games I’m in to not hammer tonight so anyone around to chat

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


I’m jus watching Samurai Jack and eating pretzels

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


I’m feeling a little naughty, I may have a cheeky beer

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

I exist Sandwolf. What are you thinking?

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

Oh, I thought I had a vote on Spokes, let's rectify that.

##vote Spokes

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

As I said before, my reads are:
Strong Town read on Sandwolf.
IA is confirmed town because of uncontested doc.
So my vote will only go to either Spokes or Hal today.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Sandwolf posted:

I’m feeling a little naughty, I may have a cheeky beer

What defines cheeky in a beer?

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

Hal Incandenza posted:

What defines cheeky in a beer?

The beer is always cheeky, it's just a matter if it's cheekiness transfers to the imbiber. As described by the cheekiness coefficient.

Spokes
Jan 9, 2010

Thanks for a MONSTER of an avatar, Awful Survivor Mods!

Sandwolf posted:

It’s true, and part of me wants to follow the lylo logic of I haven’t been hammered and I know I’m not scum, I can’t imagine IA is scum, so spokes is scum? But I also know Hal and Grandi are not so careless
It's not lylo, tho. Grandi would put a massive target on himself hammering given his public reads of you -- Hal not so much, and if he were scum I think he could vote you without looking too suspicious.

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

If I were scum I am painting myself into a hell of a corner. But you believe what you want friend.

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


I just get such a strong town read on Grandi this game the only thing that would get me to suspect him is paranoia.

Hal I can see just not hammering because A) he’s tryna chill and B) he may want to leave me around til tomorrow? But like, I’ve already suspected against him, so he’d want to bring someone into the final 3 that’d vote me. And Grandi definitely wouldn’t, so Grandi would probably be the NK target, cuz IA will vote against me

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


Alright. It’s either Hal or spokes, I’m pretty sure of it

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


The cheekiness of the beer comes from my going out and buying beer right before the stores closed to get ‘em

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

Sandwolf posted:

The cheekiness of the beer comes from my going out and buying beer right before the stores closed to get ‘em

Got 'em.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Sandwolf posted:

Alright. It’s either Hal or spokes, I’m pretty sure of it

Hmmm it’s Sandwolf or grandi lol

Opopanax
Aug 8, 2007

I HEX YE!!!


Hal Incandenza posted:

What defines cheeky in a beer?

Butt chugging

Spokes
Jan 9, 2010

Thanks for a MONSTER of an avatar, Awful Survivor Mods!

Grandicap posted:

If I were scum I am painting myself into a hell of a corner. But you believe what you want friend.

Can you expand on what you mean here? If you're scum, you know for certain that Sandwolf is town--you repeatedly going on record saying that and then either "reluctantly" hammering as we approach deadline or letting the other three players do it seems like a great way to bolster your reputation for Reads.

If Sandwolf is the vote today and flips scum, you win (because you're town in this fantasy scenario). If he flips town, then you look great for being so hesitant about it. It feels like you've got the best of both worlds here; I don't see how you're painted into a corner at all. That feels like something scum would say to point out how they couldn't possibly be scum because then they wouldn't be doing the thing they're doing--it seems like half wifom and half pure BS.

But like I said, I might be misunderstanding and I'm open to hearing you explain more.

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

Spokes posted:

Can you expand on what you mean here? If you're scum, you know for certain that Sandwolf is town--you repeatedly going on record saying that and then either "reluctantly" hammering as we approach deadline or letting the other three players do it seems like a great way to bolster your reputation for Reads.

If Sandwolf is the vote today and flips scum, you win (because you're town in this fantasy scenario). If he flips town, then you look great for being so hesitant about it. It feels like you've got the best of both worlds here; I don't see how you're painted into a corner at all. That feels like something scum would say to point out how they couldn't possibly be scum because then they wouldn't be doing the thing they're doing--it seems like half wifom and half pure BS.

But like I said, I might be misunderstanding and I'm open to hearing you explain more.

I am painted into a corner because I have been explicit about my reads from the jump. I am not giving myself wiggle room to read the room and drop votes where is most conducive to scumming. I have narrowed my options to engage in deceit by being so upfront with my reads.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Grandicap posted:

I am painted into a corner because I have been explicit about my reads from the jump. I am not giving myself wiggle room to read the room and drop votes where is most conducive to scumming. I have narrowed my options to engage in deceit by being so upfront with my reads.

I mean you really are only painted in a corner with Sandwolf so it’s not as dire as you make it sound

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

Hal Incandenza posted:

I mean you really are only painted in a corner with Sandwolf so it’s not as dire as you make it sound

Now, sure, but I have been up front with my reads all game.

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


Hal Incandenza posted:

Hmmm it’s Sandwolf or grandi lol

Why’re you discounting Spokes...?

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Sandwolf posted:

Why’re you discounting Spokes...?

I’m not really I just wanted to be your opposite

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


Hal Incandenza posted:

I’m not really I just wanted to be your opposite

You beautiful bastard, just kiss me already

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Although I will say if I vote spokes and he’s town it seems likely that both you and grandi would vote me tomorrow and since one of you would be scum we would lose so I’m not liking that

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Interesting note... start of D2 grandi votes Sandwolf and says he looks the worst at the end of D1.

Later on D2 grandi says “Sandwolf looks town AF from the end of D1” and he wouldn’t vote him

There seems to be no mention of Sandwolf between those two takes

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Hal Incandenza posted:

Interesting note... start of D2 grandi votes Sandwolf and says he looks the worst at the end of D1.

Later on D2 grandi says “Sandwolf looks town AF from the end of D1” and he wouldn’t vote him

There seems to be no mention of Sandwolf between those two takes

I mean spokes said this already but grandis explanation was kind of weak

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


Yeah thats a little confusing but hm

Spokes
Jan 9, 2010

Thanks for a MONSTER of an avatar, Awful Survivor Mods!

Hal Incandenza posted:

Interesting note... start of D2 grandi votes Sandwolf and says he looks the worst at the end of D1.

Later on D2 grandi says “Sandwolf looks town AF from the end of D1” and he wouldn’t vote him

There seems to be no mention of Sandwolf between those two takes

Yeah this is what I've said like 3 times lol

Grandi's entire explanation of it was

Grandicap posted:

I disagree that you are a good choice Sandwolf. Not hammering there is townie AF, scum would have seen the writing on the wall.

He then linked this post:

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?noseen=0&threadid=3951225&pagenumber=4&perpage=40#post510823513

as an "explanation". It stunk to me at the beginning and it stinks now.

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

Not hammering a flipped scum seemed bad to me in the moment, in retrospect, the writing was on the wall and Amni was going down anyway, not hammering there would be a forging a path too far for a scum IMO.
That is why I think he is town.
It was a rash in the moment judgement call vs. a cool and collected judgement call.

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

Hal Incandenza posted:

Although I will say if I vote spokes and he’s town it seems likely that both you and grandi would vote me tomorrow and since one of you would be scum we would lose so I’m not liking that

This is accurate. So you as scum should kill one of me or sandwolf so that you can try and convince IA to vote with you. Probably Sandwolf since I seem to have more heat and IA has expressed willingness to vote me.

But when we vote out Spokes today, the game will end and we won't have to worry about it.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Reading back and you two seem to only want to vote spokes because you are both sure the other is town, but no one really has any reason spokes is actually scummy. To be fair spokes had like 5 posts before today so there isn’t much to work with here

I dunno I still kinda think maybe it’s sandwolf

Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

Hal Incandenza posted:

Reading back and you two seem to only want to vote spokes because you are both sure the other is town, but no one really has any reason spokes is actually scummy. To be fair spokes had like 5 posts before today so there isn’t much to work with here

I dunno I still kinda think maybe it’s sandwolf

Oh yeah, I will not disagree with that. I have backed into my scum reads based on my town reads.

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Sandwolf explain your super strong town read on grandi. I’m not saying grandi screams scum but what in his posting is convincing you he’s town? Other than his decision you were surely town (which I don’t think has a solid basis) what’s he done any different than me for example?

Hal Incandenza
Feb 12, 2004

Get the beer out of your butt and answer me!

Sandwolf
Jan 23, 2007

i'll be harpo


Hal Incandenza posted:

Get the beer out of your butt and answer me!

Only cuz you asked nice

Grandi has generally felt pretty good and sincere all game, his read of me is the correct one and while I see what he has to gain as scum from seeing me as town now, I don’t see why he would then. No offense to Grandi but his scum game is a lot less refined? Like he’s been very clear and open with his reads, idk

I will get paranoia about anyone at this point, but I’m thinking I see Grandi as town

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Grandicap
Feb 8, 2006

From my perspective, which is irrelevant to anyone but me, but I am making one leap of faith that Sandwolf is town at this point. This is based on not only his actions around the turbo of a scum on d1. But since his stances on issues have made me more convinced on his alignment.
IA is certainly town as an uncounterclaimed doc in this open setup.

That means the remaining scum must be in Spokes and Hal. If Sandwolf is the scum, we've already lost, as he will chose to keep me around until ExLO and as long as the other person is not IA, I will vote with him.
But if I am right, and I am quite confident in my rightness here, then the game is in hand, we just need to execute those two in whatever order and we will win.

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