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DeadlyMuffin posted:"Skip the Israeli crossings entirely and come in via the coast" seems like it might do the trick. We'll see though. Nothing about sea vs land changes anything. It’s just a distraction.
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May 17, 2024 02:10
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cat botherer posted:Biden could tell Israel to allow the land crossings anytime they want. Israel is also perfectly capable of restricting shipments from the pier, in ways that will give a fig leaf of deniability to both Biden and Israel. I don't think Biden has direct control over what Israel does with the land crossings. But, as I said, we'll see. If aid does start coming through the pier in close to the expected amounts, we'll know if you were right.
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May 17, 2024 02:13
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DeadlyMuffin posted:I don't think Biden has direct control over what Israel does with the land crossings. he absolutely has the necessary leverage to enforce indirect control so it's a moot point
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May 17, 2024 02:16
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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/world/middleeast/us-military-gaza-aid-pier.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare “There’s is fuel for those drivers as well” so that is dealt with at least.Looks like they’ll be supplying fuel for the distribution trucks. Looks like the first two days are going to be test runs.
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May 17, 2024 02:26
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I like that Gallant is implicitly saying that they're not going to be able to defeat Hamas, but also that they're going to be able to somehow install a comprador Palestinian government without defeating Hamas? The political contradictions for netanyahu are only going to ramp up from here, as Israel has to start contending with the reality that this war is a massive failure for them.
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May 17, 2024 02:38
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Bar Ran Dun posted:You misunderstand, it’s the worst solution. It’s the riskiest, most dangerous, most expensive response. It puts the most American lives in danger and carries the highest potential political risk of all the other choices. It’s slow, it’s seasonal, it pleases nobody. Is it that no other option was considered viable, or could it be that Biden just supports what Israel is doing but wishes they were a little gentler about it and allowed some aid in (or, more cynically, wants positive PR for appearing to wish that). Civilized Fishbot posted:Yes, Zionism up to the establishment of Israel was in its origin and in operation a European (and American) movement. Its goals were Eurocentric. It succeeded in accomplishing them. Right but just because the people in charge at the beginning were Euro-supremacist colonialists doesn't mean that everyone in Israel agrees that's what Zionism should mean. Even the original Zionists didn't all think that, just as the original founding fathers didn't all think black people should be slaves. Different people believe different things, if your average black Israeli Zionist believes Zionism is inherently European supremacist and thinks success is when they are a second class citizen, that would be nuts. Did the European and Americans zionists succeed in creating a Jewish and white supremacist state, sure. Did they succeed in creating a state where white-enough Jews are safe, ehhh I mean October 7th happened so clearly that goal is as yet incomplete. Did they create a state where all Jews are free from discrimination, as at least some Jewish Zionists want, obviously not. If your argument is that Zionism, as a colonialist eliminationist ideology, is inherently racist and fundamentally incompatible with the liberation of all Jews, you may be right, but then I think the disagreement between you and others is semantic. They're describing that incompatibility as a failure of Zionism, whereas you're defining it as a success of the racist part of the ideology. Either way we come to the same conclusion: non-Ashkenazi Jews shouldn't support it because it either failed or never was what they hoped in the first place.
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May 17, 2024 03:27
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DeadlyMuffin posted:I don't think Biden has direct control over what Israel does with the land crossings. "I will stop sending you weapons and money and stop paying Egypt and Jordan to lick your boots if you don't open the crossing and stop bombing aid trucks" Nail Rat fucked around with this message at 03:50 on May 17, 2024 |
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May 17, 2024 03:41
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punishedkissinger posted:he absolutely has the necessary leverage to enforce indirect control so it's a moot point The obsession with defining power exclusively as the direct legal authority to order something is so bizarre to me. Ronald Reagan didn't have the direct authority to stop Israel from bombing Lebanon, but he had the influence to accomplish that anyway. Netanyahu doesn't have the direct executive authority to order Palestinians to go anywhere yet somehow he influenced them to evacuate parts of Gaza. George W Bush was not the president of the UK or Poland or Australia etc and could not order their armed forces to deploy to Iraq but he had a ton of soft power and he used that to get them to do what he wanted. Vladimir Putin has no legal authority to govern cities located within the internationally recognized territory of other countries yet somehow he is doing that in Sevastopol!
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May 17, 2024 03:42
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VitalSigns posted:Is it that no other option was considered viable, or could it be that Biden just supports what Israel is doing but wishes they were a little gentler about it and allowed some aid in (or, more cynically, wants positive PR for appearing to wish that). There are much less risky ways to give the appearance doing that. Like more air drops. Ineffective and flashy airdrops. Look at it this way, this is slow, it’s boring to most people, it’s not effective for PR, it’s complicated to explain, it’s weather dependent. Think about what happens to his popularity if something happens to it or one of the ships. But what it is is high volume, ships move a lot of poo poo. A cynic looking only to appearances would choose something with better appearances and less direct risk. It’s a terrible choice looking at it that way.
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May 17, 2024 04:06
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Why would you feed people being clearly genocided by people you are supplying the bombs to
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May 17, 2024 04:13
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Bar Ran Dun posted:There are much less risky ways to give the appearance doing that. Like more air drops. Ineffective and flashy airdrops. Right but if they're doing it because it's high volume, and therefore will be very effective if successful, then it would also be good for PR because he can say "well look at these huge volumes". Or, less cynically, if Biden genuinely wants it to work (because he agrees and supports what Israel is doing but only wishes they were a bit nicer to civilians), then the high volume makes it a good choice for that. There are multiple possible explanations, Biden being unable to rein in Israel instead of simply unwilling, is not the only possibility. It seems like you're just starting from the assumption that Biden is doing everything he can to stop the genocide, and working backwards from there to conclude the pier must be the only thing he can do, because he's doing that and not something else like cutting off the money and weapons.
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May 17, 2024 04:15
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punishedkissinger posted:he absolutely has the necessary leverage to enforce indirect control so it's a moot point Sure, but he's choosing to build a pier rather than force Israel to allow more aid through the land borders. If aid gets through the pier, it shows that the cost to build the pier was less than the cost to force Israel to allow aid in by land, in his calculation. VitalSigns posted:It seems like you're just starting from the assumption that Biden is doing everything he can to stop the genocide, and working backwards from there to conclude the pier must be the only thing he can do, because he's doing that and not something else like cutting off the money and weapons. It's funny you say that, because a lot of the criticism of bringing in aid via the pier seems to start with the assumption that Biden is doing everything he can to encourage the genocide, therefore the pier must be some sort of fakeout. DeadlyMuffin fucked around with this message at 04:17 on May 17, 2024 |
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May 17, 2024 04:15
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I mean if you think Biden isn't pro-genocide I don't know what to tell you.
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May 17, 2024 04:20
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DeadlyMuffin posted:It's funny you say that, because a lot of the criticism of bringing in aid via the pier seems to start with the assumption that Biden is doing everything he can to encourage the genocide, therefore the pier must be some sort of fakeout. Yes, correct, that is my point exactly. People are interpreting Biden's actions according to the assumptions they already hold about his motivations. E: DeadlyMuffin posted:If aid gets through the pier, it shows that the cost to build the pier was less than the cost to force Israel to allow aid in by land, in his calculation. No, it does not show this. Or at least "cost" is doing a lot of work here. If cost just refers to money, it does not prove that. If "cost" also includes intangibles like "Biden is reluctant to hurt Israeli-US relations by trying to force Israel" then it's true but trivially so: he's doing what he's doing because that's what he wants to do. It doesn't say much on its own. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 04:31 on May 17, 2024 |
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May 17, 2024 04:27
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I think we should interpret his actions by what happens. I think we should interpret the Israeli’s actions by what happens. We are watching the events and will be seeing what happens in a couple of days. There’s that idea I brought up earlier, POSIWID. What the system will do, and the pier is a system, will be shortly be clearly apparent. But it’s not the only system, we need to watch the other systems reactions to what it does it too. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 04:49 on May 17, 2024 |
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May 17, 2024 04:37
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Argas posted:I mean if you think Biden isn't pro-genocide I don't know what to tell you. I mean, there's definitely enough evidence to conclude he's fine with appalling amounts of collateral damage that are, frankly, genocidal. Because I haven't seen a good explanation for why he physically can't threaten to cut off aid to stop it like Ronald Reagan did. I don't think we can conclude either way whether the pier is a sham. It would be perfectly consistent for him to be fine with genocidal levels of bombing to get Hamas, but wish the survivors had a little more food because that doesn't interfere with getting Hamas. Much like there were good Germans who were fine with deporting Jews to the East to protect the reich, but thought they should be treated a little nicer and sent to humane labor colonies.
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May 17, 2024 05:07
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Bar Ran Dun posted:I think we should interpret his actions by what happens. I think we should interpret the Israeli’s actions by what happens. We don't need to interpret or read tea leaves. We've seen 8 months of his support, assistance, and participation in genocide. We don't start by seeing what happens now. There are already tens of thousands of body that he's been comfortable with.
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May 17, 2024 05:51
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VitalSigns posted:I mean, there's definitely enough evidence to conclude he's fine with appalling amounts of collateral damage that are, frankly, genocidal. Because I haven't seen a good explanation for why he physically can't threaten to cut off aid to stop it like Ronald Reagan did. It's a sham because he's not really interested in preventing the famine. He just felt the whole thing made him look bad, so here's a thing! See, he's helping. That's how you get people to vote for you.
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May 17, 2024 06:45
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hadji murad posted:There are already tens of thousands of body that he's been comfortable with. There were two million people in Gaza in 2022. I think the Netanyahu led right wing government is willing to kill, starve or displace all of them. I think they’re willing to do even if we cut all ties with and end all support for them completely. That was my first post on the subject actually in USCE. Two months ago when he announced the pier deployment. I asserted that announcement means that they (our government) thinks that the Israeli government is willing starve and kill the entirety of the population in Gaza. The pier is an extreme and risky action. It is a beach head. What does that communicate to a Zionist ideology? Where things are right now is very very bad. You are absolutely correct, they’ve killed tens of thousands of Palestinians. It could all get much much worse.
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May 17, 2024 07:04
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Nail Rat posted:Why would you feed people being clearly genocided by people you are supplying the bombs to to prevent a repeat of this https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/20/yemen-war-us-saudi-senate-support the famine was so unpopular that it got in the way of supplying more bombs Anyways it will be very clear very soon just how earnest of an effort this all is. Practically I expect it to be fairly earnest if only because providing humanitarian relief achieves goals for pretty much every part of the US govt. It looks good politically and fulfills a commitment biden made, it appeases a bunch of state dept people who have been making a lot of noise, for the cynical pro-Israel hawks it reduces the risk of a repeat of the senate pulling support for KSA over the Yemen famine, and it gets ahead of what will inevitably be a popular line of attack from trump in the fall. I don't think the US cares to really restrain Israel, but I also don't think anyone is looking to have political or legal responsibility for Israel very publicly starving 2 million people to death on their hands. who knows though, we'll see soon enough Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 07:51 on May 17, 2024 |
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May 17, 2024 07:41
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Bar Ran Dun posted:There were two million people in Gaza in 2022. I think the Netanyahu led right wing government is willing to kill, starve or displace all of them. I think they’re willing to do even if we cut all ties with and end all support for them completely. By their own admission, Israel is dependent upon the aid from the US. They'd run out of bombs without our aid. And then, since they're only abour 55% of the people in Israel + Palestinian territories, they'd be in a very bad place.
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May 17, 2024 08:13
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You could build a thousand piers and it wouldn't make up for even a fraction of the US and Biden's complicity in this. Most of the rest of the world will never forgive either Israel or the US for this, no matter what Biden supporters have to tell themselves. All the excuses and equivocation mean nothing to people who aren't in that sphere.
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May 17, 2024 08:18
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Argas posted:It's a sham because he's not really interested in preventing the famine. He just felt the whole thing made him look bad, so here's a thing! See, he's helping. That's how you get people to vote for you. Probably, but I don't get the point of quibbling about his intentions with the pier, because it doesn't erase his monstrous actions. E: although I suppose its effect on liberals, of helping them to rationalize his enthusiastic participation in this horrorshow because of his supposed good intentions, does demonstrate that the pier has PR value after all. Bar Ran Dun posted:There were two million people in Gaza in 2022. I think the Netanyahu led right wing government is willing to kill, starve or displace all of them. I think they’re willing to do even if we cut all ties with and end all support for them completely. Ok and if Biden did cut them off, and Israel got just as many bombs from I don't know, magic, and did the genocide anyway, then Biden wouldn't be complicit. The Nazis were determined to do the Holocaust with or without IBM's computers, that doesn't mean IBM is in the clear for helping. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 09:42 on May 17, 2024 |
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May 17, 2024 09:38
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Oh, would you look at that, the Independent just did a major investigative report on how the Biden administration facilitated Israel's genocide in Gaza and stonewalled attempts to prevent it.quote:President Joe Biden and his administration have been accused of being complicit in enabling a famine in Gaza by failing to sufficiently act on repeated warnings from their own experts and aid agencies.
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May 17, 2024 11:37
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So, about the pier... Turns out, Israel has found a way to use it to sever the Gaza strip in two: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/gaza-israel-netzarim-corridor-war-hamas/ quote:Israeli troops are fortifying a strategic corridor that carves Gaza in two, building bases, taking over civilian structures and razing homes, according to satellite imagery and other visual evidence — an effort that military analysts and Israeli experts say is part of a large-scale project to reshape the Strip and entrench the Israeli military presence there. (my bolding) Israel have also been building forward military outposts, check-points, holding-areas and bases across the only two major north-south roads of the Strip. They're there to stay forever. Well done, Biden.
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May 17, 2024 13:13
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The thing is Gallant and the IDF really don't want to stay forever, an occupation and counter insurgency in Gaza is going to be hell for IDF soldiers. Gallant wants a comprador Palestinian government to be in control, but netanyahu needs to drag this out as long as possible because his coalition depends on insane people like Ben-Gvir who want Jewish settlement of Gaza. They simply don't have the capability to take out Hamas, or to get back the hostages without a deal on Hamas' terms, and after rafah that's going to become increasingly clear. I'm not sure how those contradictions are going to work themselves out on the Israeli side, but it's not going to be pretty. Regarding the US, at this point anyone who denies their complicity is being wilfully blind and there's probably no getting through to them. Anyone who actually cares about Gaza at this point is supporting Hamas, Hezbollah and Ansarallah, and praying for the eventual destruction of the genocidal regimes of Israel and the US.
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May 17, 2024 14:09
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I think one part of the issue is that I don't know if there's any amount of pressure that could get Netanyahu to stop, because the minute he stops he gets removed.
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May 17, 2024 14:36
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TLM3101 posted:So, about the pier... When satellite images were shared showing the buildings Israel demolished to set up infrastructure that can support the pier, someone here suggested that they would use it as the basis for a port to service their own settlements in Gaza. I thought that was likely then, and this practically sounds like confirmation of that suspicion.
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May 17, 2024 14:45
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Jethro posted:I think one part of the issue is that I don't know if there's any amount of pressure that could get Netanyahu to stop, because the minute he stops he gets removed. This all seems a bit 'we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas', though. Like, have they actually tested what pressure they can bring to bear on him? America can make (and sometimes has made) a head of state aware that there are far worse things in the world than losing their job.
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May 17, 2024 14:45
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Your Brain on Hugs posted:The thing is Gallant and the IDF really don't want to stay forever, an occupation and counter insurgency in Gaza is going to be hell for IDF soldiers. Gallant wants a comprador Palestinian government to be in control, but netanyahu needs to drag this out as long as possible because his coalition depends on insane people like Ben-Gvir who want Jewish settlement of Gaza.
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May 17, 2024 14:46
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YF-23 posted:When satellite images were shared showing the buildings Israel demolished to set up infrastructure that can support the pier, someone here suggested that they would use it as the basis for a port to service their own settlements in Gaza. I thought that was likely then, and this practically sounds like confirmation of that suspicion. It’s temporary and has problems at sea state 3 which is is like waves of 4.1 ft.u It’s also not going to get left there.
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May 17, 2024 14:54
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Bar Ran Dun posted:It’s temporary and has problems at sea state 3 which is is like waves of 4.1 ft.u It might not, but all the infrastructure that Israel will build to service a port in its location will.
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May 17, 2024 15:27
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YF-23 posted:It might not, but all the infrastructure that Israel will build to service a port in its location will. Building a permanent port is a very different beast. The infrastructure there for this is basically a lot. A permanent port would need very different things. I mean it would need a lot too but that’s the easy part. You’d see large steel shipments for a permanent port.
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May 17, 2024 15:40
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Building a permanent port is a very different beast. The infrastructure there for this is basically a lot. A permanent port would need very different things. I mean it would need a lot too but that’s the easy part. You’d see large steel shipments for a permanent port. I don’t want to put words in their mouth, but I believe that they are talking about establishing roads and demolishing Gazan homes in order to support that pier
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May 17, 2024 16:03
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Jethro posted:I think one part of the issue is that I don't know if there's any amount of pressure that could get Netanyahu to stop, because the minute he stops he gets removed. Then there's really no excuse for not cutting off lethal aid is there. If Israel doesn't need it and it has zero effect on their capabilities in Gaza, then why does Biden want to send it so bad, just the love of the game? Sees a genocide and just has to be a symbolic part of it?
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May 17, 2024 16:06
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theCalamity posted:I don’t want to put words in their mouth, but I believe that they are talking about establishing roads and demolishing Gazan homes in order to support that pier If they intend to use the site as future permanent terminal, they would do a hell of a lot more. The other posters are taking about Israel planning on making permanent pier at the site after the temporary one is gone. My understanding is the water’s not really deep enough for that. If they spilt Gaza in half it’s because they wanted to spilt Gaza in half. Separately Times is saying the test shipments are coming off. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/17/world/israel-gaza-war-hamas-rafah?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
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May 17, 2024 16:34
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theCalamity posted:I don’t want to put words in their mouth, but I believe that they are talking about establishing roads and demolishing Gazan homes in order to support that pier It's this. The floating pier is now another reason for Israel to cut Gaza in two and impose a new security-regimen on Palestinians in the name of fighting Hamas. Also, please note that Israel is once again in charge of the aid. You know, that whole thing the pier was ostensibly about circumventing? The ships are going to unload right into a seven-acre area Israel has specifically set aside to hold the aid. Presumably until it clears 'inspection'. Estimated time of completion? Never.
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May 17, 2024 16:35
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Remember when I got probated for doubting Hamas' numbers and claims about most victims being women and children? If the numbers don't matter, then why did Hamas exaggerate them? Why did people and news organizations repeat them? Neurolimal posted:Their only intact card is the massive trove of foreign money that AIPAC channels into races, and it's not out of the question that democrats turn their attention towards exposing that (perhaps under the guise of "curbing Russian and Chinese influence") if AIPAC continues to fundraise against Democrats who aren't even anti-Israel: Hamelekim posted:Tell that to the African Jews who experience all those things. Or the Orthodox Jews who are beaten by the IDF. There is plenty of Jew on Jew hatred and discrimination in Israel. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kz-y5oV6_-Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOomitsj1bU Hamelekim posted:Israel is a failed State and always has been. Has there ever been an ethnostate that has survived? I can’t think of one. But the ruling majority cannot accept any solution other than purging Israel of all Palestinians. So I think we are headed to a really bad place in the future. You will be wrong your whole life, and you'll keep being wrong forever. You will constantly be prognosticating doom for the Palestinians forever, and they'll always still be here, constantly aggressing and getting smacked back down. So, too, will you forever be saying that Israel is a failed state on the cusp of disintegration until the die you die. Fun fact: the first nuclear power to commit a genocide was the USSR, with the 1946-47 Ukraine Famine and Chechen deportation, with the second being the US-backed genocide in Guatemala. The title of "first nuclear power to commit a genocide" is already taken. Marenghi posted:Why's it awful? A multi-ethnic state where Palestinians, Jews and other ethnicities have equal rights would be the ideal solution. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJkxOF9QqEk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BsdOGJp9to Svaha posted:I don't know the current numbers for Civilian vs Hamas deaths, but it's absolute nonsense that asymmetrical warfare can, or ever has, resulted in more combatant deaths than civilian deaths. In 1982, Muslim Brotherhood rebels in Syria attempted to assassinate Hafez Assad. In vengeance, he sent the military (30k soldiers) to put down the rebels (2k volunteers) making a last stand in the sympathetic city of Hama. By the end of February, 40,000 civilians had been killed, and only 400 militants. So that's a 1:100 casualty ratio. The Gaza War? The ratio is 15:16. As urban warfare goes, that's significantly better than average even among advanced militaries. The UN says that, globally, 90% of war casualties are civilians The way to avoid this war would have involved a competent UN, on October 7, demanding extradition of Hamas' leaders and return of all hostages, with Red Cross access to the hostages, and telling Israel to stand back militarily, and only shoot down incoming missiles but refrain from counter-attacking launch sites or crossing the border. Instead, UNSG Guterres waited until October 9 to comment and justified/"condemned"/justified the attack and did nothing to dissuade or prevent the inevitable counterattack. That would have been a diplomatic option, but there was no diplomatic option proposed. Israel had no "choice" to conduct assymetrical warfare, and if (as you say) assymetrical warfare is inevitably going to result in a certain number of civilian casualties, then isn't that a good reason to step back and have some perspective? If Israel were on the warpath to spill as much blood as possible, the way the Syrian army was in 1982, we would expect numbers with 100:1 casualty ratios, at least. Israel chose to ignore/forgive the Hatuel murders before releasing Gaza in 2005. As a result, Hamas trumpeted the murders proudly, saying their "resistance" was responsible for the liberation, and won Palestinian elections by a substantial margin. (The same way October 7 boosted Hamas in the eyes of the Palestinians, years later) Israel is not in a situation where mercy is seen as a show of strength and good intent and therefore reciprocated, we are dealing with people who view mercy as weakness and a sign to aggress even harder. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)
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May 17, 2024 17:54
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I don't really care for rest of these hasbara bullshit you are spewing, but this one is too good to ignoreNameless_Steve posted:
Holodomor was in 1932-33, years before Soviet Union (or anyone) had nuclear weapon. First successful Soviet nuclear test was in 1949.
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May 17, 2024 18:04
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Nameless_Steve posted:Remember when I got probated for doubting Hamas' numbers and claims about most victims being women and children? Source?
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