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With Santorum, Perry and Bolton making moves, the field is shaping up to be nearly as entertaining as last time. Sadly I don't think anyone will be able to fill the enormous shoes of Hermain Cain.
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Jun 25, 2013 02:58
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Gyges posted:With Santorum, Perry and Bolton making moves, the field is shaping up to be nearly as entertaining as last time. Sadly I don't think anyone will be able to fill the enormous shoes of Hermain Cain. Are you suggesting that he couldn't run again?
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Jun 25, 2013 07:51
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Cease to Hope posted:Are you suggesting that he couldn't run again? Ben Carson's gonna play the role of great black hope hawking a book this time around, provided his Fox News contract hasn't gone through by then.
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Jun 25, 2013 08:07
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Cease to Hope posted:Are you suggesting that he couldn't run again? I really hope he somehow pulls a Gingrich, ditches his past scandals and does run again, just for the entertainment value.
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Jun 25, 2013 08:21
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A human heart posted:I really hope he somehow pulls a Gingrich, ditches his past scandals and does run again, just for the entertainment value. That person very well may be... Gingrich! There have been several NRO pieces on him meeting with groups of 200+ donors and testing the water. He'll have at least a dozen new ghost written books about Civil War battles to sell by then too.
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Jun 25, 2013 21:39
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Christie's bloviating about the DOMA ruling is the press is pretty much the start of his failed 2016 Presidential campaign.
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Jun 27, 2013 15:05
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Hey state's rights fans, states will now have the marriages they recognize acknowledged by the federal government.
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Jun 27, 2013 16:52
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mcmagic posted:Christie's bloviating about the DOMA ruling is the press is pretty much the start of his failed 2016 Presidential campaign. You have to admit, it's clever in its obfuscation. "Civil unions should be enough" is the sniveling, "I want moderate voters to like me" dodge, so yes, his spine is made of jello, but it takes one hell of an amazing jello spine to blame your own veto decision on the state legislature. His comments are, in essence, "Well, if it's that important, there are workarounds to passing gay marriage that would never have to cross my desk."
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Jun 27, 2013 17:25
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mcmagic posted:Christie's bloviating about the DOMA ruling is the press is pretty much the start of his failed 2016 Presidential campaign. The NJ Legislature sprung into action immediately after the DOMA ruling and is now trying their hardest to overturn Christie's marriage equality veto as we speak. He's loving mad.
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Jun 27, 2013 18:59
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VirtualStranger posted:The NJ Legislature sprung into action immediately after the DOMA ruling and is now trying their hardest to overturn Christie's marriage equality veto as we speak. The people actually running the NJ legislature don't actually want same-sex marriage, they want the out of state socially liberal donors to think they do (in other words, the only reason that bill was passed was because they knew Christie would veto). I am fairly convinced at this point that keeping the money flow to "fight for" SSM coming in is precisely why they don't want it to actually happen.
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Jun 27, 2013 19:25
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jeffersonlives posted:The people actually running the NJ legislature don't actually want same-sex marriage, they want the out of state socially liberal donors to think they do (in other words, the only reason that bill was passed was because they knew Christie would veto). I am fairly convinced at this point that keeping the money flow to "fight for" SSM coming in is precisely why they don't want it to actually happen. What else are they supposed to do exactly? They've already passed it once and are bringing it back for another bite at the apple. Who cares if they've got love in their heart while they are actually doing the right thing. You prefer their opponent here for just being an honest bigot?
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Jun 27, 2013 19:40
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jeffersonlives posted:The people actually running the NJ legislature don't actually want same-sex marriage, they want the out of state socially liberal donors to think they do (in other words, the only reason that bill was passed was because they knew Christie would veto). I am fairly convinced at this point that keeping the money flow to "fight for" SSM coming in is precisely why they don't want it to actually happen. Nothing makes me want to move out of this state more than your posts about NJ politics. mcmagic fucked around with this message at 15:04 on Jun 28, 2013 |
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Jun 27, 2013 19:48
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DynamicSloth posted:What else are they supposed to do exactly? They've already passed it once and are bringing it back for another bite at the apple. Who cares if they've got love in their heart while they are actually doing the right thing. You prefer their opponent here for just being an honest bigot? The same legislative leaders could have easily passed it at any point during the Corzine administration and (quietly) whipped against it in the state senate when it finally got to the floor in the lame duck, then only decided not to whip against it in 2012 when they were assured of a veto, and then refused to put it as a constitutional amendment on the ballot in 2012 when it would have easily passed. They're not doing the right thing, they're scoring political points; if Christie was somehow defeated by Barbara Buono, who is pro same-sex marriage, in November, I am quite skeptical that it would get to her desk.
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Jun 27, 2013 19:52
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mcmagic posted:you're NJ is such a brackish blue state. At least by staying there you're keeping it blue.
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Jun 28, 2013 14:59
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jeffersonlives posted:The same legislative leaders could have easily passed it at any point during the Corzine administration and (quietly) whipped against it in the state senate when it finally got to the floor in the lame duck But the political calculus for gay marriage has changed pretty significantly since 2009, hasn't it? That was the same year gay marriage failed by a significant margin in New York under the Democratically controlled Senate. You know NJ's internal politics better than I, but the concept it wouldn't become law under the (not happening) Buono administration strikes me as unlikely. edit: then again I don't know the 2012 ballot referendum story so that seems relevant
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Jun 28, 2013 19:45
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The Landstander posted:But the political calculus for gay marriage has changed pretty significantly since 2009, hasn't it? That was the same year gay marriage failed by a significant margin in New York under the Democratically controlled Senate. Had the highers up freed the state senate to vote its conscience in the Corzine lame duck as they did in the 2012 vote, there would be same-sex marriage in the state right now. With perhaps one or two exceptions, the "flips" in voting were not legitimate changes in ideology on the issue, it was just that votes were whipped the first time and weren't whipped the second time. I think it's all a null issue because I strongly suspect that either the United States or New Jersey Supreme Court will find a full marriage equality right by 2018, and Gusciora may even shame everyone into putting it on the ballot at some point.
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Jun 28, 2013 20:08
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I"m wondering how sane the republican primaries are going to make Rubio look? Bolton and  man this is going to be glorious.On another note Cuomo hopefully won't get anywhere near the Democratic nomination.
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Jul 1, 2013 09:50
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Is there something I'm not getting, or is Christie back to being cartoonishly evil?Reuters posted:(Reuters) - New Jersey Governor Chris Christie vetoed a bill that would have expanded Medicaid eligibility under the healthcare law known as Obamacare, his office said on Friday, in an apparent reversal of position for the presumed 2016 Republican presidential hopeful. Not to mention the whole SSM beeswax.
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Jul 1, 2013 14:43
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Well, if this isn't proof that Christie's running, I don't know what is. He figures he's got to shore up his rear end in a top hat bonafides after acting like a decent human being during Sandy, I guess.
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Jul 1, 2013 14:50
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Alter Ego posted:Well, if this isn't proof that Christie's running, I don't know what is. He figures he's got to shore up his rear end in a top hat bonafides after acting like a decent human being during Sandy, I guess. What's decent about what he did, it would be political suicide for any governor regardless of political leanings to cancel federal aid money, antagonize the president during the post-disaster response or block relief efforts.
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Jul 1, 2013 14:53
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etalian posted:What's decent about what he did, it would be political suicide for any governor regardless of political leanings to cancel federal aid money, antagonize the president during the post-disaster response or block relief efforts. Given the actions of many Republican governors since Obama was elected, the threshold for "decent human being" has been lowered a considerable amount.
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Jul 1, 2013 14:55
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Christie's trying to thread the needle on the Medicaid expansion by accepting it year to year instead of taking all of the money at once, it's a weird issue. But he actually is taking the money.
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Jul 1, 2013 14:57
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jeffersonlives posted:Christie's trying to thread the needle on the Medicaid expansion by accepting it year to year instead of taking all of the money at once, it's a weird issue. But he actually is taking the money. It is easier for a morbidly obese man to pass through the eye of a needle than for a compassionate politician to secure the Republican nomination.
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Jul 1, 2013 15:27
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etalian posted:What's decent about what he did, it would be political suicide for any governor regardless of political leanings to cancel federal aid money, antagonize the president during the post-disaster response or block relief efforts. Yeah, well "political suicide" is apparently what it takes to win over Republican primary voters these days.
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Jul 1, 2013 20:50
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Is there a sitting governor who conceivably might have rejected fema aid in a comparable situation?
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Jul 1, 2013 20:57
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Zas posted:Is there a sitting governor who conceivably might have rejected fema aid in a comparable situation?
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Jul 1, 2013 21:42
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Zas posted:Is there a sitting governor who conceivably might have rejected fema aid in a comparable situation? I doubt it, although I remember Oklahoma congressmen demanding that aid to their state after the tornadoes be offset by cutting social programs that they didn't like.
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Jul 1, 2013 22:02
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Breaking news, the polling for Latino voters is a nightmare for the GOP. Sorry about the t.co link.
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Jul 1, 2013 23:15
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ufarn posted:Breaking news, the polling for Latino voters is a nightmare for the GOP.  How is that even possible?
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Jul 1, 2013 23:41
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Christie has 38-12 favorability among Latinos? I'm sure it wouldn't last if he actually got the nomination, but it's still really surprising.
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Jul 1, 2013 23:43
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UltimoDragonQuest posted:
Maybe it counts people who didn't understand the question (language issues, bad telephone connection, just misheard it, whatever) and responded with confusion? Kind of sloppy, though, you'd expect those to be a 'no opinion' and I wouldn't expect it to make an entire percent anyway.
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Jul 1, 2013 23:45
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UltimoDragonQuest posted:
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Jul 1, 2013 23:47
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The Monkey Man posted:Christie has 38-12 favorability among Latinos? I'm sure it wouldn't last if he actually got the nomination, but it's still really surprising. Christie has generally been fairly moderate on immigration, he's even made the point that the phrase "illegal immigrant" is a misnomer because they've committed no crime, and he supports a path to citizenship to the extent that there were rumors that he called Senator Chiesa last week and urged him to support the final Senate bill after Chiesa had initially indicated that he would vote against it (Chiesa did flip). He did oppose DREAM, though.
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Jul 1, 2013 23:50
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UltimoDragonQuest posted:
Those people exist.
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Jul 1, 2013 23:52
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I think the most shocking part of this poll is that 15% of Latinos have strong opinions about Martin O'Malley. Edit: Also interesting that so many people have heard of Julian Castro, yet how relatively few have heard of Ted Cruz, especially given the fact that they are both from the same state and one is a state-wide elected official and the other is a Mayor. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Jul 2, 2013 |
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Jul 2, 2013 00:00
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UltimoDragonQuest posted:
Margin of error.
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Jul 2, 2013 00:16
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I think the most shocking part of this poll is that 15% of Latinos have strong opinions about Martin O'Malley. Castro got a DNC speaker spot in primetime, which I don't think Cruz got at the RNC. I mean, this doesn't explain everything, but I'm sure a fair number of people saw him for the first time at the DNC.
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Jul 2, 2013 00:22
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SAVE_US.CHR
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ChampRamp posted:Castro got a DNC speaker spot in primetime, which I don't think Cruz got at the RNC. I mean, this doesn't explain everything, but I'm sure a fair number of people saw him for the first time at the DNC. That could be a factor, but not that many people overall watched the convention (something like an estimated 6-8% of the population, which is fairly large for a TV audience, but not a lot of people in the aggregate) and most of those people who watched are politically engaged. I really doubt that roughly 40% of the people in the poll all saw Castro at the convention and remembered him 9 months later if they weren't already politically engaged and didn't know him previously.
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Jul 2, 2013 00:30
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That could be a factor, but not that many people overall watched the convention (something like an estimated 6-8% of the population, which is fairly large for a TV audience, but not a lot of people in the aggregate) and most of those people who watched are politically engaged. I really doubt that roughly 40% of the people in the poll all saw Castro at the convention and remembered him 9 months later if they weren't already politically engaged and didn't know him previously. Another bit is that survey is nationwide, so it would be a bit surprising for the general public to be aware of a fairly new political figure (outside of Texas).
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Jul 2, 2013 00:45
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ChampRamp posted:Another bit is that survey is nationwide, so it would be a bit surprising for the general public to be aware of a fairly new political figure (outside of Texas). Yes, that's part of what I meant. Both Castro and Cruz are new political figures outside of Texas, but for some reason Castro is way over performing his national visibility (Cruz is over performing as well, but to a much smaller degree than Castro). It's just surprising, even notorious self-promoter, frequent national news participant, and fellow mayor Cory Booker is only about half as visible as Castro. The most logical reason I could think of is that Castro gets a lot of coverage in Latino media, but other than Univison there isn't really a major national united Latino media entity. So, I have no idea why this mayor with a very limited national presence is so much more visible than other Latino politicians nationwide; especially among people who are not politically tuned in. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Jul 2, 2013 |
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Jul 2, 2013 00:53
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