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zoux posted:I'm not enough of an economist to say if he's wrong or not. My feeling is that any kind of economic crisis is more likely to be regional than statewide, and we still have $8 bn+ in the ESF. Whether we'll use that money remains to be seen, but I'll point out the biggest obstacle to using rainy day fund money was Rick Perry. Rumors I've heard is there is considerable risk in the real estate market, especially in Houston, Austin and San Antonio. The O&G decline could pop a Houston real estate bubble and really multiply the financial impact of both bubbles.
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Jan 26, 2016 21:45
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Rents are stupidly high in Houston right now and while I haven't done an exhaustive study the only places to rent I could find sub $950 a month were ghetto as hell slum holes. Housing market is due to burst any time now, half the dam city has been laid off in the last 6 months so I have no idea who's still buying those 500k+ condos that were going up like kudzu in neighborhoods were it used be 50k houses.
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Jan 27, 2016 00:16
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Numlock posted:Rents are stupidly high in Houston right now and while I haven't done an exhaustive study the only places to rent I could find sub $950 a month were ghetto as hell slum holes. Californians?
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Jan 27, 2016 00:21
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citybeatnik posted:Californians? Those move to Austin.
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Jan 27, 2016 03:43
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Dameius posted:It's not GOTV generically but specifically treating like the river valley exists and that the people there have actually needs and problems and wants. The state level party is all sorts of hosed and withered on the vine though so I'd rather count on Republicans collapsing under their own success than the state level Democrats pulling their heads out their own asses. Maybe the Dems could try to to set up a farm team. Let's face it, Wendy Davis was a lovely candidate. Running as a single issue pro-abortion candidate didn't exactly get out the vote. It got her some national recognition, but as an actual candidate trying to connect with voters she sucked balls.
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Jan 27, 2016 14:22
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As much as TX Dems suck, I don't think that is the only reason. There are plenty of Hispanic conservatives out there
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Jan 28, 2016 00:16
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I don't really think she wanted to run. The tx democratic party chair was doing speeches in 2013 about how she didn't like her chances and didn't want to give up her seat. At least, that was the speech I saw.
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Jan 28, 2016 02:20
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Hot Dog Day #91 posted:I don't really think she wanted to run. The tx democratic party chair was doing speeches in 2013 about how she didn't like her chances and didn't want to give up her seat. At least, that was the speech I saw. I read more that her seat was gone anyway so she said "sure, whatever".
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Jan 28, 2016 02:58
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thrakkorzog posted:Let's face it, Wendy Davis was a lovely candidate. Running as a single issue pro-abortion candidate didn't exactly get out the vote. It got her some national recognition, but as an actual candidate trying to connect with voters she sucked balls. She didn't even do that. She ran away from the abortion issue by saying she would have voted for a 20-week ban if it hadn't had the other restrictions on clinics, and in the debate wouldn't even own up to voting for our fuckin president. Her single-issue was education funding (which is an important issue don't get me wrong) but on everything else she pulled this "well the Republicans are basically right about everything including how much Obama sucks, vote for me and I'll be almost as Republican as they are." And in the end none of that mattered because Abbott blanketed the airwaves with ads calling her a dishonest cowardly minion of Obama anyway.
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Jan 28, 2016 03:04
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I feel like nobody talks about gerrymandering anymore. Is there just nothing we can do to fix it without implementing gerrymandering in our favor?
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Jan 28, 2016 19:11
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Reik posted:I feel like nobody talks about gerrymandering anymore. Is there just nothing we can do to fix it without implementing gerrymandering in our favor? Sure, let a computer draw the districts. Neither party is going to go for that.
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Jan 28, 2016 19:24
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zoux posted:Sure, let a computer draw the districts. Neither party is going to go for that. Either that or increase the number of districts so it's harder to gerrymander. Again, not popular though because it diminishes a Representative's individual power.
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Jan 28, 2016 19:27
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computer parts posted:Either that or increase the number of districts so it's harder to gerrymander. Again, not popular though because it diminishes a Representative's individual power. Also the smaller the district the crazier the rep.
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Jan 28, 2016 19:28
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Is it in the constitution that a state representative has to represent a certain geographical region? I know how many representatives a state gets is based on the population, but is there a reason we can't just give everyone a vote for how ever many open seats there are and fill the seats top down by popular vote? So like, if there's 4 seats, everyone picks 4 different candidates and then we tally em up.
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Jan 28, 2016 19:58
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Reik posted:Is it in the constitution that a state representative has to represent a certain geographical region? I know how many representatives a state gets is based on the population, but is there a reason we can't just give everyone a vote for how ever many open seats there are and fill the seats top down by popular vote? So like, if there's 4 seats, everyone picks 4 different candidates and then we tally em up. Hahaha good luck getting the rural reps to vote for that.
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Jan 28, 2016 20:00
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It's hard to talk about gerrymandering when we're in the middle of a census cycle. It'll be relevant again in 2019-2022.
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Jan 28, 2016 20:18
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Do districts get reset by the census?
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Jan 28, 2016 20:21
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Is The Donald going to win Texas?
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Jan 28, 2016 20:21
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Maoist Pussy posted:Is The Donald going to win Texas? Yes. 
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Jan 28, 2016 20:28
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Well if it was held today, Cruz is leading him by 20 points.
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Jan 28, 2016 20:31
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'face to bloodshed'
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Jan 28, 2016 20:31
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Reik posted:Is it in the constitution that a state representative has to represent a certain geographical region? I know how many representatives a state gets is based on the population, but is there a reason we can't just give everyone a vote for how ever many open seats there are and fill the seats top down by popular vote? So like, if there's 4 seats, everyone picks 4 different candidates and then we tally em up. That is specifically banned by a federal law because states in the South (with a white majority) would just put all of their congressional seats up for at large voting.
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Jan 28, 2016 21:31
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A Texas House elected by full proportional representation would be pretty great, though. Our first coalition would be made up of Straus-suburbanites, the Chamber of Commerce Party and Kinky Friedman's Free West Texas Faction.
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Jan 28, 2016 21:37
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computer parts posted:That is specifically banned by a federal law because states in the South (with a white majority) would just put all of their congressional seats up for at large voting. Hm, I see what you mean. You would have to put together some kind of self-correcting algorithm that would compare the distribution of the total votes to the distribution of the votes of voters who have currently elected officials and if those two populations were statistically significantly different implement a bias against the voters who have already placed an official. Step 1: Popular vote for Rep 1. Step 2: Check distribution of Rep 1 voters vs population, if different create bias towards Non-Rep 1 voters. Step 3: Elect Rep 2. Step 4: Check distribution of Rep 1 or 2 voters vs population, if different create bias towards Non-Rep 1 or 2 voters. The only problem is you'd need to do every seat at the same time.
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Jan 28, 2016 21:46
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zoux posted:Well if it was held today, Cruz is leading him by 20 points. Shameful. What sort of person is a Cruz voter?
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Jan 28, 2016 21:53
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Maoist Pussy posted:Shameful. Even the Americans in Idiocracy elected a better President.
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Jan 28, 2016 22:38
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So is Austin backing off TNC regulations because of a petition? I bet could get at least that many people to sign a pro-train petition! http://www.austinmonitor.com/stories/2016/01/council-stalls-mandatory-fingerprinting-for-tncs-adopts-voluntary-program-instead/
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Jan 29, 2016 21:34
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Badger of Basra posted:So is Austin backing off TNC regulations because of a petition? I bet could get at least that many people to sign a pro-train petition! I'm sure the fact that the TNC petition having the backing of stuff like Uber and the like has absolutely nothing to do with why it's being listened to.
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Jan 29, 2016 21:50
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Badger of Basra posted:So is Austin backing off TNC regulations because of a petition? I bet could get at least that many people to sign a pro-train petition! Sadly those sorts of voter petition tools are only usable to stop regulation not force infrastructure spending.
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Jan 29, 2016 22:09
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Friendly reminder: today is the last day to register to vote in time for the primaries on March 1.
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Feb 1, 2016 16:36
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Maoist Pussy posted:Shameful. Cruz sucked every single dick of every single low-level tea party organizer across the whole damned state during his Senate bid. That was one of the main reasons he came out of nowhere to beat the ever-loving poo poo out of David Dewhurst, despite Dewhurst having more money and years more experience. The Texas Tribune crowd still talks about how Cruz showed up at pretty much any tea party function that had more than four people at it so he could get them on his side. I wouldn't be surprised if Ted Cruz has shaken the hands of more Republican primary voters in this state than the every other primary candidate combined, plus Rick Perry. Cruz is pretty much a lock for Texas, and if the Republicans in Iowa are as susceptible to glad-handing as their Texan counterparts, I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls of an upset tonight (as he's been working at that same strategy over there for this primary). Then again, Iowa is a lot more used to high-level glad-handing than Texas, so his plan may not work as well.
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Feb 1, 2016 17:42
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I've never posted in this thread, nor do I post much in D&D, but I figure this is a decent place for this. What can the parties do, especially the Democrats, to get people to actually get out and vote? I'm in State Rep district 118, and the voter turnout for the runoff we just had seriously makes me sad inside. 4% of registered voters bothered to vote. My precinct, which is basically my subdivision of about 900 homes, had 3 people vote. 2 of those people were my wife and I. I know turnout is always low for non presidential elections, but looking at historical turnout for the 2008 and 2012 presidential election turnout was about 57%. Nov 2014, was even lower at 31.7%
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Feb 1, 2016 19:29
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skipdogg posted:I've never posted in this thread, nor do I post much in D&D, but I figure this is a decent place for this. The easiest way is to not have an election in the January before the Presidential Elections. There's an election for that same spot this fall, and it looks like there's enough Dems to get the Republican out of office. Don't worry about it.
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Feb 1, 2016 19:33
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Also, runoff elections are legendarily low turnout affairs. Source: Ted Cruz is a US Senator.
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Feb 1, 2016 19:36
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Good points. I'm not too worried about seat 118 specifically, just more of an overall question about how it might be possible to get more people out there to vote. I believe Texas has some pretty big pockets of blue, and I'm curious if voter engagement is an issue, and if there's a way to improve it. I'm sure there are lots of moving pieces to the puzzle that more politically savvy people are aware of. Lack of strong candidates probably being one.
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Feb 1, 2016 20:04
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http://www.texastribune.org/2016/02/04/stickland-fights-strong-primary-challenge/ I've been surprised at how many yard signs I've seen in nearby neighborhoods that support Stick through all this (given his primary challenger is a well-liked local conservative). His post history at the fftoday forums seems to have been scrubbed (http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showuser=219), but is there any chance this guy had an account here considering he reached peak libertarian shithead at the same time as SA's surge? I already checked and the current username stick isn't him.
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Feb 4, 2016 18:11
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Hawkline posted:http://www.texastribune.org/2016/02/04/stickland-fights-strong-primary-challenge/ The problem is that the religious right that he panders to loves a redemption story. In fact, the worse you were, the better because that feeds the redemption narrative these guys eat up every Sunday. Honestly my problem with Stickland is just that he fucks poo poo up and hurts good legislation with his shenanigans; from a practical perspective it's like having no one represent that district because he doesn't vote with his caucus and he never passes legislation.
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Feb 4, 2016 18:14
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skipdogg posted:Good points. There's large issues with voter engagement, but more pressingly, there's ENORMOUS issues with voter suppression.
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Feb 4, 2016 18:18
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Strickland seems like a turd, exactly the same kind of turd I was 10 years ago on the internet. I'm not running for office though. Any way to get this blasted out there to his constituency?
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Feb 4, 2016 18:39
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The Mandingo posted:Strickland seems like a turd, exactly the same kind of turd I was 10 years ago on the internet. I'm not running for office though. Any way to get this blasted out there to his constituency? They know and they don't care.
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Feb 4, 2016 18:40
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