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Christie is a cow considering his chances to paddle across the piranha-laden Primary River toward the gentle shores of General Electionland. He's gonna have to swim like a motherfucker.
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Jul 18, 2013 22:26
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Adar posted:But the big name you didn't name is Christie, who is more dangerous than all of them combined. And weighs about as much.
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Jul 18, 2013 22:44
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I feel like Rand will get a fair amount of leftist support when he runs from single issue voters on things like drones and surveillance, perhaps even more than Ron did given that his associations with the fringe-right are more oblique.
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Jul 18, 2013 22:49
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Sir Tonk posted:Is there a single electable Republican in the group of theoretical primary candidates? Adar is right to mention Christie, but Scott Walker is perhaps even more dangerous, and yes, he's running. And I believe America is just silly enough to gives the Bush family a third shot. I'd include Rubio too, but I think he'll choke, or at least get a bit of dryness, under pressure. But if we're seriously going to pretend Rick Perry has an outside chance, we can't leave out Marco.
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Jul 18, 2013 22:52
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jeffersonlives posted:I feel like Rand will get a fair amount of leftist support when he runs from single issue voters on things like drones and surveillance, perhaps even more than Ron did given that his associations with the fringe-right are more oblique. And then his opponents will say "Hey he's also the guy against the Civil Rights Bill and wants to turn wars and drones into private industry".
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Jul 18, 2013 22:54
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Joementum posted:Adar is right to mention Christie, but Scott Walker is perhaps even more dangerous, and yes, he's running. And I believe America is just silly enough to gives the Bush family a third shot. I have to wonder, though, if Jeb is willing to toss his hat in. He can probably make a play at being the only Serious Candidatetm in a room full of lightweights (insert Christie joke here) and loonies, but even with the incredible tendency of the American public towards selective amnesia I have to think he still has brand damage he'd have to overcome that might make running more trouble than it's worth.
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Jul 18, 2013 22:56
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jeffersonlives posted:I feel like Rand will get a fair amount of leftist support when he runs from single issue voters on things like drones and surveillance, perhaps even more than Ron did given that his associations with the fringe-right are more oblique. Not a chance in hell. "White supremacist and Ayn Rand worshipper" isn't an easy sell to the left.
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Jul 18, 2013 22:57
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jeffersonlives posted:I feel like Rand will get a fair amount of leftist support when he runs from single issue voters on things like drones and surveillance, perhaps even more than Ron did given that his associations with the fringe-right are more oblique. All twenty of the leftist single-issue surveillance voters.
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Jul 18, 2013 22:59
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Joementum posted:Adar is right to mention Christie, but Scott Walker is perhaps even more dangerous, and yes, he's running. And I believe America is just silly enough to gives the Bush family a third shot. Whenever I hear the words "President" and "Scott Walker" in the same sentence, I reach for my revolver. 
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Jul 18, 2013 22:59
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What effect will the 2012 GOP delegates debacle have in 2016? Were those temporary changes made at the convention just to screw over Ron Paul or are they going to carry over to 2016?
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Jul 18, 2013 22:59
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Captain_Maclaine posted:I have to wonder, though, if Jeb is willing to toss his hat in. He can probably make a play at being the only Serious Candidatetm in a room full of lightweights (insert Christie joke here) and loonies, but even with the incredible tendency of the American public towards selective amnesia I have to think he still has brand damage he'd have to overcome that might make running more trouble than it's worth. Jeb's brother actually might not be his biggest problem. He will have trouble in the primary with the base because of his outspoken position on immigration and a few other topics. But he's also really bad at public speaking. Go and listen to any of the speeches he's given in the last year. He motors through them at lightning speed, looking around the room nervously. There are no applause breaks, little change in intonation, just fifteen minutes of him wonking out about education policy, or immigration, or milk. If you're already unpopular with the base and your main opponent is Chris Christie you can't bore people to death with your stump speech and expect to win.
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Jul 18, 2013 23:02
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Baruch Obamawitz posted:All twenty of the leftist single-issue surveillance voters. You're probably right, there's been a lot of talk around these parts about how the left needs to support libertarians lately on that issue, but at the end of the day if that group had enough voices the Democrats wouldn't be ignoring them to begin with. Rand is still less obviously nuts than Ron and I do wonder whether that makes him an actual factor in the party as opposed to a gadfly.
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Jul 18, 2013 23:04
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Your Gay Uncle posted:What effect will the 2012 GOP delegates debacle have in 2016? Were those temporary changes made at the convention just to screw over Ron Paul or are they going to carry over to 2016? They are going to carry over to 2016, though part of the rules change was a new rule that the RNC can change its rules between conventions, so it is possible that the rules change again before Iowa. It is very unlikely that the rule about binding delegates in caucus states (the one Ron Paul hated) will be changed. The effect of the rule is that nobody can run the Ron Paul caucus state strategy, which is probably OK because it's not clear that doing so would benefit any of the candidates. Also, smart observers will note that it didn't benefit Ron Paul, other than allowing him to pretend he was a viable candidate longer than he should have, helping him scam more cash off his gullible base. The other benefit that the rules change will have is clarifying news reporting on the primaries. After Iowa, pretty much every outlet said that the Iowa delegates were split 7/7/7 between Romney, Santorum, and Paul. This was not at all true, but in 2016 it will be. Since lazy reporting about delegate counts actually does affect primary results, the fact that it will be accurate is nice. The rules changes that will matter are those that changed the penalty for pushing up the primary dates, but you should be reading Frontloading HQ for that. It looks like Florida will stay put back on Super Tuesday this time. jeffersonlives posted:Rand is still less obviously nuts than Ron and I do wonder whether that makes him an actual factor in the party as opposed to a gadfly. I'd say Rand is the best positioned candidate to win Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada right now. That makes him a factor. Joementum fucked around with this message at 23:15 on Jul 18, 2013 |
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Jul 18, 2013 23:12
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mdemone posted:Christie is a cow considering his chances to paddle across the piranha-laden Primary River toward the gentle shores of General Electionland. The GOP leadership seems to have understood how badly Romney was damaged in the primary, and they have hinted at making the primary process shorter (and therefore less expensive and damaging to whoever becomes the nominee). In other words, they are preemptively scrambling to give moderates like Christie cover on his right-flank from greasy populists like Cruz who could sink the entire GOP ship.
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Jul 18, 2013 23:38
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Joementum posted:I'd say Rand is the best positioned candidate to win Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada right now. That makes him a factor. I was always very sure that if, at the end of the day, Ron Paul was anywhere close to viable for the nomination, that the party institutions would go nuclear and sink his candidacy. I'm less sure that would happen with Rand.
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Jul 19, 2013 00:00
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They should hold all of the primaries on one day. Get it over with.
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Jul 19, 2013 00:00
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All the people discrediting Christie are forgetting how much hate Romney and McCain got, and they pulled it off. They were badly damaged, but if Christie can fundraise like Romney, he can weather the primaries and pose a real threat.
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Jul 19, 2013 00:12
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Sinestro posted:They should hold all of the primaries on one day. Get it over with. Yeah making it even easier for the establishment big money candidate's eventual installation as the nominee is a good idea. What the heck, let's just get rid of the stupid primary system altogether and go back to having party bosses decide who we're voting for.
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Jul 19, 2013 00:15
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Sinestro posted:They should hold all of the primaries on one day. Get it over with. Uh, the 2011-12 Republican primary shitshow was bar none the most entertaining thing I've ever seen in my life. I'm salivating in anticipation for 2015.
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Jul 19, 2013 00:16
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Joementum posted:Jeb's brother actually might not be his biggest problem. He will have trouble in the primary with the base because of his outspoken position on immigration and a few other topics. But he's also really bad at public speaking. Go and listen to any of the speeches he's given in the last year. He motors through them at lightning speed, looking around the room nervously. There are no applause breaks, little change in intonation, just fifteen minutes of him wonking out about education policy, or immigration, or milk. If you're already unpopular with the base and your main opponent is Chris Christie you can't bore people to death with your stump speech and expect to win. Using the rule that there are four places you can find a viable Presidential candidate (current or former Senator, current or former Governor, current or former VP, general of a winning war) and the GOP is empty on the last two (Petraeus might have filled the last slot, if his wars had gone better and he hadn't nailed his groupie/biographer, let's see what the cupboard holds: Gov: Christie, Jindal, Perry, Bush, Walker, Haley, Huckabee, Mcdonnell, Pence, Pawlentny, Daniels Sen: Cruz, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, Portman VP (sort of): Ryan Man, lots and lots of baggage on a lot of those candidates. I like the chances of Walker and Cruz out of that bunch.
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Jul 19, 2013 00:18
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Sinestro posted:They should hold all of the primaries on one day. Get it over with. Iowa is incredibly aggressive at protecting its only tangible claim to relevance as the "first caucus." Keeping them happy while still nominating a not-crazy teabagger to the ticket is the establishments job.
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Jul 19, 2013 00:20
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Sorry to digress but I couldn't find anything via Google. What do you guys see as the chief differences between Joe and Hillary? Not just in terms of policy, but also how they differ when it comes to playing the Washington game, how you think they would act differently in the face of a stubborn Congress, what each would compromise on, what each wouldn't compromise on, etc. Thanks.
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Jul 19, 2013 02:01
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Abel Wingnut posted:Sorry to digress but I couldn't find anything via Google. Honestly, for me it comes down to the fact that one said a dumb, ignorant thing and the other tried to run the loving Southern Strategy in a 21st century Democratic primary against a black candidate. I think Hillary Clinton is vastly more likely to compromise and sell out people of color than Joe Biden is, but it's more that Biden hasn't done anything that suggests he would be more likely and Clinton has. If you're willing to take a big poo poo on people of color to try to win a primary, I think you're more likely to do it to get a "compromise" bill passed.
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Jul 19, 2013 02:11
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Biden, by virtue of being a Senator since '73, has meaningful relationships with many of the senior members of the Senate and would likely be able to use that influence to accomplish his agenda, if you buy the Neustadt thesis. It speaks volumes that the only person McConnell would agree to negotiate with during the fiscal cliff crisis was Biden, cutting Reid completely out of the loop. Hillary reportedly gained a lot of respect from her fellow Senators during her brief time there by being a bit of a workhorse and trying to negotiate deals without grabbing headlines. Still, that's not the same as decades-long relationships and there is the infamous tendency of the Clintons to cut out anyone who doesn't support them, which is why Harry Reid invited a certain junior Senator from Illinois to his office for a chat in 2006. At the same time, Congress is not the only way a President can exert their power and the Clintons have a large stable of ardent supporters that could be appointed to important executive office positions where they'd help Hillary a lot more than Bill's staff ever did. I don't think either of them would be able to work the office like FDR, but neither would be Jimmy Carter either. Oh, and I don't think anyone has any reasonable clue what their policy differences would be at this point.
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Jul 19, 2013 02:15
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Biden obviously has a more chummy relationship with Congress, especially the Senate, but there's not much use speculating until we have a better idea how Congress will shake out in 2016.Joementum posted:At the same time, Congress is not the only way a President can exert their power and the Clintons have a large stable of ardent supporters that could be appointed to important executive office positions where they'd help Hillary a lot more than Bill's staff ever did. There's that too. Either one would have a lot of the same people whispering in their ear on policy stuff, but the Clinton posse is a real thing and holy gently caress if you've ever met any their loyalty is borderline creepy. Alec Bald Snatch fucked around with this message at 02:20 on Jul 19, 2013 |
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Jul 19, 2013 02:17
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Can Jimmy Carter run for President again?
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Jul 19, 2013 02:23
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Paper Jam Dipper posted:Can Jimmy Carter run for President again? Technically, yes, he can.
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Jul 19, 2013 02:25
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Paper Jam Dipper posted:Can Jimmy Carter run for President again? Carter is 88 and HW Bush is 89. They're both technically eligible but uh, no. Might as well speculate about Al Gore vs Dan Quayle.
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Jul 19, 2013 02:31
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hobbesmaster posted:Carter is 88 and HW Bush is 89. They're both technically eligible but uh, no. Might as well speculate about Al Gore vs Dan Quayle. Dukakis/Mondale '16 (I would have gone with Mondale/Ferraro - hell, I have their campaign button on a bulletin board in my hallway - but apparently Geraldine Ferraro died of myeloma two years ago, gently caress.)
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Jul 19, 2013 04:24
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Joementum posted:Jeb's brother actually might not be his biggest problem. He will have trouble in the primary with the base because of his outspoken position on immigration and a few other topics. But he's also really bad at public speaking. Go and listen to any of the speeches he's given in the last year. He motors through them at lightning speed, looking around the room nervously. There are no applause breaks, little change in intonation, just fifteen minutes of him wonking out about education policy, or immigration, or milk. If you're already unpopular with the base and your main opponent is Chris Christie you can't bore people to death with your stump speech and expect to win. I think the only inauguration he'll be attending any time soon is 2025's for George P. Bush. SombreroAgnew fucked around with this message at 19:01 on Jul 19, 2013 |
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Jul 19, 2013 18:59
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I'd say he's more the 2016 Jon Huntsman: the wonky centrist Republican that can't win a primary because he's wonky and centrist, but will still get a ton of media coverage* because he's wonky and centrist. * also because his brother and dad have been Presidents, obviously.
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Jul 19, 2013 19:03
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Huntsman really wasn't a centrist though, dude constantly talked about "EPA reign of terror" and poo poo.
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Jul 19, 2013 19:05
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Joementum posted:I'd say he's more the 2016 Jon Huntsman: the wonky centrist Republican that can't win a primary because he's wonky and centrist, but will still get a ton of media coverage* because he's wonky and centrist. Say, what's the Huntster up to this time, anyway? If not him, who will be the Unity08/AmericansElect/whatever guy Brooks and Friedman et al blather about, before coming to nothing?
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Jul 19, 2013 19:12
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Tatum Girlparts posted:Huntsman really wasn't a centrist though, dude constantly talked about "EPA reign of terror" and poo poo. Everything's relative, especially when your fellow candidates are talking about instituting child labor and abolishing multiple Cabinet positions because DEMOCRATS  .
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Jul 19, 2013 19:13
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SombreroAgnew posted:Say, what's the Huntster up to this time, anyway? Huntsman took jobs at Brookings and with No Labels, started a leadership PAC with a goal of electing more moderate Republicans, and has occasionally made noises about running in 2016 that have met with laughter because of the previous three things he's done.
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Jul 19, 2013 19:26
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jeffersonlives posted:Huntsman took jobs at Brookings and with No Labels, started a leadership PAC with a goal of electing more moderate Republicans, and has occasionally made noises about running in 2016 that have met with laughter because of the previous three things he's done. What's sad is that Huntsman would get even more of the vote in Utah than Romney did, because the Utah Dems love Huntsman for some reason. It's bizarre.
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Jul 19, 2013 20:23
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SombreroAgnew posted:Yes, that works much better. He still posts from time to time but he's been unusually quiet since (I think) reregging after the Mitt Romney tox thread banfest.
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Jul 19, 2013 20:35
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Ted Cruz might not seem like the frontrunner now, but he's already picked up a rather important endorsement: God. Just ask his dad.quote:Yes, but you know something, it is not something that started a couple of years ago. Let me just go back to when he was maybe four. When he was four I used to read Bible stories to him all the time. And I would declare and proclaim the word of God over him. And I would just say, ‘You know Ted, you have been gifted above any man that I know and God has destined you for greatness’. And I started making declarations about the Word of God to him every day. Don't believe his parents on this count? Well, Iowa's pastors have faith. quote:Cruz lectured for 30 minutes, his voice at times rising to a shout. He answered questions for another 20 minutes, then stood at the center of a circle as pastors laid their hands on him and the whole audience – a predominantly white group with about 20 black pastors – bowed heads to pray for him. 
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Jul 22, 2013 23:27
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Ted Cruz is going to make these primaries amazing. Hell, he already is. I hope we get Newt and Cain back too, let's go all in.
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Jul 22, 2013 23:43
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Joementum posted:Ted Cruz might not seem like the frontrunner now, but he's already picked up a rather important endorsement: God. Just ask his dad. How many of last cycle's candidates had been endorsed by God? Off the top of my head I can think of Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum. I don't think Cain did. Anyone else? Make up your mind already, big man upstairs! 
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Jul 22, 2013 23:46
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