Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

Vancouver needs more housing because vacancy is insanely low and the population is going to keep growing. The city should regulate Airbnb and it'd be great if the province restricted anti-renting strata bylaws (they won't) but while those moves would help, the region is still going to need more units to house newcomers. I agree with Subjunctive that I don't see the region emptying out even if the housing market crashes. It'd take an earthquake.

If anything the rate of Vancouver population growth is probably going to accelerate. The Federal government wants to significantly raise immigration from China. Minister McCallum seems to think he can get them to move to towns that aren't Vancouver and Toronto but I'm extremely skeptical.

quote:

Canada aims to spread Chinese immigrants across country: McCallum

Canada�s immigration minister says it appears the country needs more newcomers, but as housing prices skyrocket in Vancouver and Toronto, his government hopes to lure them elsewhere.

John McCallum recently returned from a trip to China, where he lobbied officials to double or even triple the number of visa application centres in the country in an effort to open more doors for Chinese students, workers and tourists.

He is also conducting a series of consultations across Canada. Speaking after a roundtable of experts and business leaders in Vancouver, he said he�s hearing that the aging population means more young blood is needed to propel the economy, especially outside of big cities.

�We would like to spread the immigrants across the country relatively evenly. The last thing we want is that every immigrant either goes to Toronto or Vancouver,� he said Wednesday.

The immigration minister�s trip to Beijing comes just before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to travel to China for the G20 summit in September.

Mr. McCallum said the government has not yet made a decision on how many immigrants it will propose for 2017. It will announce a number in September, along with figures for 2018 and 2019.

He said Canada was able to settle Syrian refugees across the country, including in the Maritimes and the Prairies. He also pointed to a pilot program to attract newcomers to Atlantic Canada, where he said the need was �desperate.�

However, he acknowledged there are limits to the government�s ability to disperse migrants, as once people become permanent residents they have a constitutional right to move wherever they want.

...

# ? Aug 18, 2016 02:43

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# ? Jun 9, 2024 04:12

Ccs: Feb 25, 2011

So Atlantic Canada needs more people, but there aren't many jobs, so even if people move here they won't stay for long without there being a place to work at. How do you grow a population without employment for those people?

# ? Aug 18, 2016 03:29

Lain Iwakura: Aug 5, 2004; The body exists only to verify one's own existence.; Taco Defender

Ccs posted:

So Atlantic Canada needs more people, but there aren't many jobs, so even if people move here they won't stay for long without there being a place to work at. How do you grow a population without employment for those people?

Tech startups. Build an IoT company for lobsters.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 03:32

The Butcher: Apr 20, 2005; Well, at least we tried.; Nap Ghost

Subjunctive posted:

Short banks maybe?

Naw. "Too big to fail" (something like what, 40% of TSX is financials?) / CHMC insurance/backstop poo poo / god knows what sort of government flailing bailout fuckery.

I don't doubt they'd take a significant hit but getting the timing right for shorting on this one is next to impossible for a retail investor.

Seat Safety Switch posted:

Invest in a debt counselling agency

That could actually be an idea, dunno if any are public though. Would need to compare against American ones after 2008 as well to see how that worked out. Will do some research on that and share with the thread if there are any possible hits there.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 03:41

Risky Bisquick: Jan 18, 2008; PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.; Buglord

Canadian financials are bail in now fyi

# ? Aug 18, 2016 03:46

Postess with the Mostest: Apr 4, 2007; Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes

The Butcher posted:

Naw. "Too big to fail" (something like what, 40% of TSX is financials?) / CHMC insurance/backstop poo poo / god knows what sort of government flailing bailout fuckery.

Buncha people would disagree (about TD anyways), http://www.tmxmoney.com/en/research/short_positions.html

# ? Aug 18, 2016 03:46

leftist heap: Feb 28, 2013; Fun Shoe

I'm sure wealthy Chinese will be more than happy to settle in rural Canada.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 04:23

leftist heap: Feb 28, 2013; Fun Shoe

And any policy intended to promote that will definitely be really good and not have a ton of miserable long term consequences. I super trust the Liberals to do that.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 04:23

Vehementi: Jul 25, 2003; YOSPOS

I don't want to be all anti-itshappening.gif or anything, but isn't the -95% sales explained trivially by the mad rush to get all those sales done before the tax kicked in?

# ? Aug 18, 2016 05:13

The Butcher: Apr 20, 2005; Well, at least we tried.; Nap Ghost

Vehementi posted:

I don't want to be all anti-itshappening.gif or anything, but isn't the -95% sales explained trivially by the mad rush to get all those sales done before the tax kicked in?

Potentially not. It would appear the tax was reactive, after the decline had already begun. It's a pretty classic political move to put in a law just after a trend has been established so you can claim it was your doing.

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/why-the-bc-liberals-rushed-a-foreign-buyer-tax-absorption-rates/

# ? Aug 18, 2016 05:22

Vehementi: Jul 25, 2003; YOSPOS

I'd say we won't be able to answer that question. No way to tell whether the absorption rate would have gone down to 20% or whatever on its own, if it even does go that low ever.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 06:12

Wasting: Apr 25, 2013; The next to go

In reply to the guy wanting to short, If you're convinced we're in for a decline sometime soon, look at related industries. Some retailers like Home Depot would eventually suffer, ditto for construction.

I wouldn't do it, though.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 11:48

EvilJoven: Mar 18, 2005; NOBODY,IN THE HISTORY OF EVER, HAS ASKED OR CARED WHAT CANADA THINKS. YOU ARE NOT A COUNTRY. YOUR MONEY HAS THE QUEEN OF ENGLAND ON IT. IF YOU DIG AROUND IN YOUR BACKYARD, NATIVE SKELETONS WOULD EXPLODE OUT OF YOUR LAWN LIKE THE END OF POLTERGEIST. CANADA IS SO POLITE, EH?; Fun Shoe

Short our own sorry asses because when push comes to shove the government will literally take the money out of our hands to bail out the very people that got us in to this mess.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 13:38

Postess with the Mostest: Apr 4, 2007; Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes

EvilJoven posted:

Short our own sorry asses because when push comes to shove the government will literally take the money out of our hands to bail out the very people that got us in to this mess.

There is an in-between in unhedged ETFs like VXC and VUN. The only way you really lose is if the canadian dollar soars vs the USD.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 14:00

Reince Penis: Nov 15, 2007; by R. Guyovich

I bought a new (slightly used) car last night.

Building up that sweet crossover equity what what

# ? Aug 18, 2016 14:15

Shifty Pony: Dec 28, 2004; Up ta somethin'

The Butcher posted:

Potentially not. It would appear the tax was reactive, after the decline had already begun. It's a pretty classic political move to put in a law just after a trend has been established so you can claim it was your doing.

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/why-the-bc-liberals-rushed-a-foreign-buyer-tax-absorption-rates/

The tax might have been after the peak but it will probably accelerate the crash. Normally prices hang out at the top for a while with declining volume because sellers think they can wait out a temporary blip but this is such a shock to the market it probably will skip that stage. The tax also discourages a class of people would might have been willing to try (or been conned into) catching the falling knife so prices will have even less support than they otherwise would have.

But what's amusing is that if prices go into free-fall the narrative that the bubble was caused by Chinese money is going to be unquestionable fact for a lot of people no matter how many articles the FIRE people publish saying it is racist.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 14:22

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

Shifty Pony posted:

The tax might have been after the peak but it will probably accelerate the crash.

How can one tell if this turns out to be true?

# ? Aug 18, 2016 14:32

Playstation 4: Apr 25, 2014; Unlockable Ben

Subjunctive posted:

How can one tell if this turns out to be true?

Several years from now, and an obvious missing bear trap.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 14:41

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

Playstation 4 posted:

Several years from now, and an obvious missing bear trap.

I mean, how can one tell if the tax accelerated things? Accelerated versus what rate?

# ? Aug 18, 2016 14:44

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://twitter.com/dbcurren/status/766264093049286656?s=09

Also I'm not calling a peak. I don't think this tax will do anything spur a reversion to the norm

# ? Aug 18, 2016 14:50

Playstation 4: Apr 25, 2014; Unlockable Ben

namaste faggots posted:

https://twitter.com/dbcurren/status/766264093049286656?s=09

Also I'm not calling a peak. I don't think this tax will do anything spur a reversion to the norm

Actually this is true. We could be looking at the bull trap or the bear trap and we won't know for a while.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 14:52

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Reversion to the mean, not norm

# ? Aug 18, 2016 14:56

Reince Penis: Nov 15, 2007; by R. Guyovich

That millionaire in their 30s couple is back on CBC.ca today talking about all the hate they're getting online. Even their financial advisor calls them "nauseating" in the article.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 15:04

Risky Bisquick: Jan 18, 2008; PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.; Buglord

PK loving SUBBAN posted:

That millionaire in their 30s couple is back on CBC.ca today talking about all the hate they're getting online. Even their financial advisor calls them "nauseating" in the article.

The path to riches is paved with ramen noodles, value village, and living with your parents. What do you mean it's not for everyone??!??

# ? Aug 18, 2016 15:18

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

PK loving SUBBAN posted:

That millionaire in their 30s couple is back on CBC.ca today talking about all the hate they're getting online. Even their financial advisor calls them "nauseating" in the article.

hahaha link

# ? Aug 18, 2016 15:19

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

namaste faggots posted:

Reversion to the mean, not norm

How long ago do you think real estate prices were at the mean? Are we going to roll back 5 years? 10?

# ? Aug 18, 2016 15:21

Shifty Pony: Dec 28, 2004; Up ta somethin'

Subjunctive posted:

I mean, how can one tell if the tax accelerated things? Accelerated versus what rate?

Well the size of the bubble in Vancouver is unprecedented so it will be largely impossible to tell for sure how much of a difference it makes.

But after things shake out if we look back to this time and see a step function for volume I think it would be fair to say that it had some effect on demand, which would cause prices to drop faster than they would have if that demand was still there.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 15:22

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Subjunctive posted:

How long ago do you think real estate prices were at the mean? Are we going to roll back 5 years? 10?

Somewhere between 10 years back in this pic and whatever the curve for median incomes is

# ? Aug 18, 2016 15:26

mastershakeman: Oct 28, 2008; by vyelkin

As long as home ownership is the primary societal goal, any decline is going to be reversed in a few years. in the us, every desirable location is well above the 2007 prices because there's an incessant drive in society to make homeownership happen, regardless of the consequences of huge debt burdens and the government backstopping everything. Canada will be no different even if a crash happens. The outskirts will get screwed but not the major cities.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 15:33

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

namaste faggots posted:

Somewhere between 10 years back in this pic and whatever the curve for median incomes is

So other than detached things aren't likely to be catastrophic (though I can't find the condo curve on there).

Do you have a similar graph for Toronto, out of curiosity? I'm interested in figuring out how realistic my prediction of near-term loss on my house is.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 15:34

leftist heap: Feb 28, 2013; Fun Shoe

That curve doesn't show 2016 where even condos practically went asymptotic.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 15:36

Aagar: Mar 30, 2006; E/N Gestapo
I am talking to a mod right now about getting you probated/banned/gassed

namaste faggots posted:

Somewhere between 10 years back in this pic and whatever the curve for median incomes is

Added in median income to the graph:

Also here is the link to the CBC article. A looootttt of vitriol. About what I'd expect from CBC website comments.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/kristy-shen-bryce-leung-1.3724450

# ? Aug 18, 2016 15:44

Lain Iwakura: Aug 5, 2004; The body exists only to verify one's own existence.; Taco Defender

namaste faggots posted:

hahaha link

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/kristy-shen-bryce-leung-1.3724450

# ? Aug 18, 2016 15:49

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

PK loving SUBBAN posted:

That millionaire in their 30s couple is back on CBC.ca today talking about all the hate they're getting online. Even their financial advisor calls them "nauseating" in the article.

I'm pretty sure Garth Turner calls everyone including his dog "nauseating" and/or other pejoratives in a mostly amiable way, so I wouldn't put too much weight on that. His blog posts are nothing more than little japes interspersed with imminent housing crash predictions, and have been for years.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 16:10

McGavin: Sep 18, 2012

Lexicon posted:

His blog posts are nothing more than little japes interspersed with imminent housing crash predictions, and have been for years.

So which one of you is he?

# ? Aug 18, 2016 16:19

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

namaste faggots posted:

seriously do some of you dumb assholes really think ~urban planning~ has any real, lasting role in affordable housing

# ? Aug 18, 2016 16:34

peter banana: Sep 2, 2008; Feminism is a socialist, anti-family, political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians.

Garth Turner's brand of "humour" is about as fresh as any FaceBook macro image the third time your aunt posts it.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 16:36

tagesschau: Sep 1, 2006; Guten Abend, meine Damen und Herren.

peter banana posted:

Garth Turner's brand of "humour" is about as fresh as any FaceBook macro image the third time your aunt posts it.

And yet he manages to be funnier and more connected to reality than half of this thread. (OK, not a particularly high bar.)

# ? Aug 18, 2016 16:47

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

Not posting all because SCMP articles are always huge.

quote:

Canada tax chiefs knew foreign money�s big role in Vancouver housing market 20 years ago, leaked documents show, but auditors� warnings was �ignored�

Team of investigators tried to raise alert about tax cheating after 1996 analysis found rich new immigrants dominated luxury property market, buying 93 per cent of homes in two cities, while declaring extremely low incomes

Leaked documents have revealed that Canada�s tax department was warned 20 years ago about the impact of millionaire migration on greater Vancouver, by a team of auditors who discovered the influx was playing a huge role in the luxury housing market and suspected the buyers were engaged in widespread tax cheating.

But the �alarming� results of the auditors� investigation were �ignored� by Canada Revenue Agency bosses who failed to commit the resources needed to tackle the issue, and instead �wanted the problem to go away�, one of the auditors, now retired, told the South China Morning Post.

Instead, Vancouver went on to become one of the world�s most unaffordable housing markets, with rich mainland Chinese flocking to the city in recent years under same wealth-migration model that raised the auditors� concern two decades ago.

The 1996 investigation, described in interviews, leaked memos and a spreadsheet obtained by the SCMP, compared luxury home sales in two regional cities against buyers� social insurance numbers and tax records, amid the arrival in Vancouver of thousands of rich immigrants from Hong Kong and Taiwan. It showed that recent immigrants made up more than 90 per cent of top-end, C$600,000-plus purchases in which buyers were identifiable.

However, these buyers only declared average household incomes of about C$23,000, compared to more than C$368,000 for the handful of long-term Canadian residents who bought in the same price brackets.

The existence of the CRA team�s 1996 analysis has never before been publicly revealed. It was conducted by CRA�s Underground Economy Workload Development Unit in the Burnaby-Fraser tax office, which had been tasked with identifying potential audit targets.

A retired auditor who was involved in the analysis said the results were sent to Ottawa in what amounted to �a call out for help��look, we have identified significant non-compliance from this group of people. We will not start audits unless you can do something [to help us]�. Nothing was ever done.�

He said �senior CRA management just wanted the problem to go away and did not want to put resources towards these high-hour audits�, which could take many months.

Only a handful of audits were ever conducted as a result of the initiative, which was �abandoned� for lack of interest and resources, he said.
The account of the investigation - and its apparent snubbing by CRA bosses - was corroborated by a second person who worked in the Burnaby-Fraser CRA office at the time.

...

David Ley, a University of British Columbia geography professor who has studied the phenomenon of wealth migration to Vancouver for decades, said that at the time of the study there was an intense debate in the city about whether the role of rich immigrants in the housing market was being exaggerated.

He said the leaked data would have been valuable to this discussion had it been made public at the time, and pointed out that the same debate and doubts were echoed today.

�It certainly elucidates what was going on. If we wanted a transparent sense of this trend in society, then this would have informed that debate,� he said, adding that he �most certainly would have� wanted the data himself back in the 1990s.

...

# ? Aug 18, 2016 17:27

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# ? Jun 9, 2024 04:12

EvilJoven: Mar 18, 2005; NOBODY,IN THE HISTORY OF EVER, HAS ASKED OR CARED WHAT CANADA THINKS. YOU ARE NOT A COUNTRY. YOUR MONEY HAS THE QUEEN OF ENGLAND ON IT. IF YOU DIG AROUND IN YOUR BACKYARD, NATIVE SKELETONS WOULD EXPLODE OUT OF YOUR LAWN LIKE THE END OF POLTERGEIST. CANADA IS SO POLITE, EH?; Fun Shoe

Haha our economy self destructing is 20 years in the making and the government was fully aware of what was coming.

# ? Aug 18, 2016 17:34

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