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skipdogg posted:Yeah, and nuclear war can break out, or time traveling aliens come back and destroy the human race, or he could get hit by a bus driving to work and die. Good grief man. Except the things I listed are all real and happening right now.
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May 11, 2020 17:52
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maffew buildings posted:Adoption is always an option. Adoption is so much harder than producing your own kids. It's sometimes an option for some people.
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May 11, 2020 20:10
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FreelanceSocialist posted:Except the things I listed are all real and happening right now. No, "Stuff like maternity ward access, NICU for complications, your jobs or sources of income, etc. Also, keep an eye on the news about this Kawasaki-like stuff going on with COVID-positive kids. There's a lot of unknowns that could become very real problems. Like what if your wife gets COVID and has to be in an induced coma and on a vent during the pregnancy?" All of these things are fears. It's a personal choice to be Too Scared to Make Baby Right Now so I'm not shaming you here, but it's 100.00% reasonable for people to be having babies in 2020/2021
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May 11, 2020 20:19
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Yeah but he's not asking "should anyone have a baby right now, or would that be evil", he's asking "should I have a baby right now." And from the long-term investing and retirement thread, IMO the only aspect of that question we should really address is the financial one. Don't try to time the market (with your baby) is a reasonable response, but so is "maybe don't have a baby when unemployment just hit an all-time high?" But only if your job isn't secure. The rest of the question is E/N fodder that we don't really need to get into.
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May 11, 2020 20:23
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Leperflesh posted:Yeah but he's not asking "should anyone have a baby right now, or would that be evil", he's asking "should I have a baby right now." Listen, if I time the 'Rona baby market right, he's going to have less competition for the sports teams in high school, which means he can get on the team/recruited at HYPSM, work at MBB, go to B-school, and buy a yacht for my retirement.
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May 11, 2020 20:27
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Climate change means all babies born nowadays are gonna grow up in the last years of human civilization, therefore,
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May 11, 2020 20:29
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You want to aim for a December delivery so that you get the full year of tax benefit with minimal child-rearing expenses BUT! You want to aim for August delivery so that your kid is older and larger when they enroll in school, so that they perform better academically and get on a good track with regard to sports
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May 11, 2020 20:31
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Leperflesh posted:Climate change means all babies born nowadays are gonna grow up in the last years of human civilization, therefore, On the bright side, if social distancing sticks around climate change can be contained. Already some cities are seeing blue skies that they haven’t seen in decades due to pollution. https://www.eco-business.com/news/delhi-mumbai-seoul-and-wuhan-see-record-breaking-clear-skies-as-covid-19-lockdowns-subdue-air-pollution/
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May 11, 2020 20:47
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Gonna buy a house sometime in the next two-three months, sell a house around that time frame, and have a baby sometime mid/late-next year. I ain't never scared. Also stopped droppin money in the market and am holding some cash for now in case it dips again. Worst case, it doesn't and I use the cash on the house or some poo poo. The money I threw in during the first downturn has done well!
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May 11, 2020 23:03
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:You want to aim for a December delivery so that you get the full year of tax benefit with minimal child-rearing expenses My kid's going to be a fuckup anyways so December it is.
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May 11, 2020 23:06
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The Big Jesus posted:am holding some cash for now in case it dips again. The Big Jesus posted:The money I threw in during the first downturn has done well!
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May 11, 2020 23:34
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nelson posted:On the bright side, if social distancing sticks around climate change can be contained. Already some cities are seeing blue skies that they haven’t seen in decades due to pollution. The bluer skies are a reduction in smog. But, even if we eliminated 100% of car travel worldwide, that would not be enough to reverse the climate change trend. We have to get entirely off fossil fuels for our energy supply.
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May 11, 2020 23:59
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Leperflesh posted:The bluer skies are a reduction in smog. But, even if we eliminated 100% of car travel worldwide, that would not be enough to reverse the climate change trend. We have to get entirely off fossil fuels for our energy supply. It’s a good start 
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May 12, 2020 00:08
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dexter6 posted:If you need the money in the next 10 years, don’t put it in the mar.... I don't need it in the next ten years. It'd just be to pay down the home loan to get rid of PMI earlier. I'm still maxing out my 401k, Roth IRA, and HSA. This is just my fun money left over that I've been throwing at retirement/future as I see fit. So feel free to tell me how I'm wrong. E: I get the whole 'don't time the market' talk itt, but if I'm taking care of the important things first, gently caress it. Cases haven't stopped increasing in the US, and now things are opening back up in some locations. I don't think it's a crazy thing to say there's a second wave coming. Nobody knows when or how bad things will get, but I may as well hold some cash that I can throw to the new mortgage (in case it doesn't get bad) or into the market (if it does get bad). How is that a bad idea? The Big Jesus fucked around with this message at 02:23 on May 12, 2020 |
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May 12, 2020 02:16
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Ally's HYSA just dropped to 1.25%. 
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May 12, 2020 06:28
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The Big Jesus posted:I don't need it in the next ten years. It'd just be to pay down the home loan to get rid of PMI earlier. If you want to reduce variance or hold some cash or whatever then do it for that reason, but timing the market like you're describing because you have some sort of inkling is just gambling Blinky2099 fucked around with this message at 08:06 on May 12, 2020 |
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May 12, 2020 08:03
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Leperflesh posted:The bluer skies are a reduction in smog. But, even if we eliminated 100% of car travel worldwide, that would not be enough to reverse the climate change trend. We have to get entirely off fossil fuels for our energy supply. People have been predicting the end of the world since forever. This isn't to say that there are not serious fundamental problems and it might not finally happen, but the future is notoriously hard to predict. Maybe someone will finally figure out nuclear fusion, or the next pandemic will kill a couple billion people in overpopulated parts of the world allowing for some environmental recovery.
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May 12, 2020 11:28
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literally this big posted:Ally's HYSA just dropped to 1.25%. Marcus/GS is down to like 1.3% having a baby and becoming unemployed is not necessarily the worst thing provided you a) have financial resources and b) have heath insurance.
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May 12, 2020 12:08
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:b) have heath insurance. That's my insurance plan, I drink a Baskin Robbins Heath Bar Shake every day. That way I can die before the medical bills get too expensive
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May 12, 2020 12:12
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literally this big posted:Ally's HYSA just dropped to 1.25%. Good news - the inflation-adjusted rate of return is now closer to 5.05%!  Time to pull out of your 401k and stuff it all under your mattress. Capitalism is dead. Long live capitalism.
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May 12, 2020 14:55
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Marcus also dropped to 1.3, not a surprise as it tracks Ally very closely, often .05% above it.
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May 12, 2020 15:25
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While generally you can say there is never a right or wrong time to have a kid, if there ever was an actual wrong time it'd be when hospitals may be overloaded with a highly infectious disease which can infect infants, we don't know the long term impact of having been infected, and has doctor's questioning whether their usual medical practices are proper or not (such as separating an infant from the mother after birth as a safety precaution until they leave the hospital).
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May 12, 2020 15:25
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So don't get pregnant 9 months ago everyone.
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May 12, 2020 17:57
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Loan Dusty Road posted:So don't get pregnant 9 months ago everyone. "The worst time to get pregnant is 9 months ago, the second worst time is now."
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May 12, 2020 18:04
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Spokes posted:"The worst time to get pregnant is 9 months ago, the second worst time is now." 
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May 12, 2020 18:28
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Spokes posted:"The worst time to get pregnant is 9 months ago, the second worst time is now." Thread title please, MB.
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May 12, 2020 18:39
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Loan Dusty Road posted:So don't get pregnant 9 months ago everyone. So about that.... I may have been horrible at timing, but I am at least a planner. The kid will be arriving in the next month, and I am trying to figure out how to start some sort of savings/investments for their future. I looked around a bit and saw you can only start a custodial Roth IRA if the minor has income, and I want something that isn't just focused towards college, ect. As someone in the generation of "you have to go to college" I don't plan on doing that to my kid, trade schools are great plans too. On the plus side I did come here for some advice a while back, and I did in fact leave Edward Jones in the dust.
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May 12, 2020 19:31
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Spokes posted:"The worst time to get pregnant is 9 months ago, the second worst time is now."
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May 12, 2020 19:43
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Loan Dusty Road posted:Thread title please, MB. Seconding the motion.
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May 12, 2020 19:50
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Rufflebutt posted:So about that.... Sir, have you heard of bitcoin? It's the most fool-proof investment you can make in your child's ... sir? Sir! Come back! I haven't told you how the blockchain will revolutionize business yet!
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May 12, 2020 20:24
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Rufflebutt posted:I may have been horrible at timing, but I am at least a planner. The kid will be arriving in the next month, and I am trying to figure out how to start some sort of savings/investments for their future. I looked around a bit and saw you can only start a custodial Roth IRA if the minor has income, and I want something that isn't just focused towards college, ect. As someone in the generation of "you have to go to college" I don't plan on doing that to my kid, trade schools are great plans too. If you live in a state with 529 tax benefits, that's a good deal if your kid goes to college. You can front load that puppy with a $150k chunk right off the bat (you and your wife contribute your first 5 years of $15k each right away). But a 529 is more limited with expenses - must be for college, etc. If you're planning on multiple kids, it's easy to change the beneficiaries, so if you roll the dice that at least one of them goes to college, it may be worth it.
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May 12, 2020 20:59
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529's can include expenses for vocational schools, apprenticeships, and other post-secondary educational institutions - they just have to qualify for student aid programs through the Department of Education to be considered an acceptable institution. They can also be used to pay K-12 tuition (up to 10k per year) per the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. More info on pages 57-61 of this IRS Publication - https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p970.pdf. Good-Natured Filth fucked around with this message at 14:07 on May 13, 2020 |
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May 12, 2020 21:30
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New to investing here. Was wondering if there are any cool tools people use to quickly assess historical returns of funds while removing the influence of certain holdings. It would be nice to see what the returns look like if you could control for outlier holdings like Amazon or Tesla.
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May 12, 2020 23:55
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Are you asking that because you're idly curious and want to play with spreadsheets to help distract you from the end of the world or because you think it will help you make money? Because it won't.
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May 13, 2020 06:35
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Amarcarts posted:New to investing here. Was wondering if there are any cool tools people use to quickly assess historical returns of funds while removing the influence of certain holdings. It would be nice to see what the returns look like if you could control for outlier holdings like Amazon or Tesla. https://www.tdameritrade.com/education/tools-and-calculators/morningstar-instant-xray.page will show you what your portfolio actually contains, so you can put your potential fund mix in there and it'll spit out the stocks in the proportion they're held. You can probably then make up a mix excluding the stuff you want to control for. Like the previous poster said, I don't think it'll tell you too much unless you plan on building your own fund out of individual buys or whatever, at which point you'll probably eat poo poo on fees...
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May 13, 2020 09:20
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StarkingBarfish posted:https://www.tdameritrade.com/education/tools-and-calculators/morningstar-instant-xray.page will show you what your portfolio actually contains, so you can put your potential fund mix in there and it'll spit out the stocks in the proportion they're held. You can probably then make up a mix excluding the stuff you want to control for. Like the previous poster said, I don't think it'll tell you too much unless you plan on building your own fund out of individual buys or whatever, at which point you'll probably eat poo poo on fees... I was hoping to use something like this to evaluate the performance of ETFs that I don't own. For example, ARK investment ETFs are actively managed and have very good numbers, but the manager Catherine Wood loves Tesla and thinks it's going to $4,000 pretty soon. That may or may not be true but I thought it would be cool to see the historical performance of those funds if you remove Tesla from the equation. There is a similar situation with a service I subscribe to that has excellent overall return number for its cumulative historical picks, but I have the feeling a huge part of that has to do with Amazon being picked early. Amarcarts fucked around with this message at 10:54 on May 13, 2020 |
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May 13, 2020 10:51
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Amarcarts posted:I was hoping to use something like this to evaluate the performance of ETFs that I don't own. For example, ARK investment ETFs are actively managed and have very good numbers, but the manager Catherine Wood loves Tesla and thinks it's going to $4,000 pretty soon. That may or may not be true but I thought it would be cool to see the historical performance of those funds if you remove Tesla from the equation. Oh good, this thread was slow for a week and I need some entertainment.
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May 13, 2020 13:00
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results OP.
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May 13, 2020 13:53
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Amarcarts posted:There is a similar situation with a service I subscribe to that has excellent overall return number for its cumulative historical picks, but I have the feeling a huge part of that has to do with Amazon being picked early. Do you subscribe to them because their return rate is high? Look up survivorship bias.
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May 13, 2020 15:11
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I actually have a sort of theory along those lines, but I'm bad at math so I have no idea whether it is true (though I think it is). It's so common to hear bromides like, "Individuals aren't going to beat the market," and the thing about monkeys throwing darts at a board. Which led me to realize - if you have a sufficiently large pool of people, there will be outliers who do beat the market, just by random chance. And the more people you have picking stocks, the more likelihood that there are going to be those handful of people who just hit stock after stock. Not necessarily because they're brilliant, but because if you have one million people flipping coins, there's going to be that one guy in a million who hits heads 9 out of 10 times (or something like that). This obviously in no way suggests that people should try to outguess the market. I just find it interesting that there are people out there who have probably consistently outperformed the market, and we look to them as gurus, when in some cases it may well be that they just guessed the coinflip right a bunch of times, because when you have a huge number of people guessing coinflips, there will be outliers who just guess correctly. We then, being humans, want to believe it is some pattern, or something more clever than guesswork.
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May 13, 2020 15:56
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