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That Italian Guy posted:EU petrol bulletin chat. Yeah 2.40 € per liter of diesel here in Finland, more expensive than gas! Over here diesel is cheaper than gasoline due to the way tax is paid, seeing diesel more expensive than gas is really loving with my sense of reality.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:04
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Tuna-Fish posted:It doesn't loving work like that. In order to become a NATO member, you have to be accepted by every existing NATO member. As in, they have to hold parliamentary votes on the matter. If it looks like Russia is invading Finland, what are the chances that at least one NATO member isn't going to go "actually, letting Finland in right now is not in our best interests"? Finland is in the loving EU. The minute Russia attacks Finland, it's now at war with all of the EU. Sure, that wouldn't include the US, but it's still an entire continent with some very decent sized armies, vs. one country (ok, maybe two) that can't even handle Ukraine.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:06
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Tomn posted:Yeah, I'm starting to wonder about this. The story's been out for a while now and Meta hasn't immediately slapped back hard. You'd think they'd jump right on that PR grenade if it was categorically false. Who was the goon who worked for Meta? They have any updates? The only source saying it was “fake news” is a random unknown goon that claims to work at Meta. They claimed they emailed an unnamed internal contact and were told it was fake news. Meanwhile the reporters following up with the story have actually asked named Meta sources who went on the record to clarify the supposedly fake news policy. Said random goon had the gall to even say that this is literally how fake news starts.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:06
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Thoughtless posted:Chances are they meant crossbows, in which case everything they said would be true. You can hand those to peasants and they do indeed punch through armor. Eh, still not really. Again, armor was relevant clear through to the gunpowder age - crossbows CAN punch through armor under the right circumstances (and fairly short range) but it's by no means a sure thing and they definitely didn't obsolete knightly heavy armor. Neither did arquebuses, in fact, to which the same argument applies but even more so - see for instance reiters who were extremely heavily armored and armed with pistols, and who in a cavalry engagement were expected to ride up to their counterparts and push the pistol up against their enemies point-blank before firing as they would be ineffective otherwise. Longbows, crossbows, and guns weren't the immediate "make knights obsolete" button people think they were, and knights faded out only slowly as a combination of incremental technological improvements combined with changes to both society and military organization made them less important over time, and even then "heavy cavalry with armor" was STILL relevant during the Napoleonic Wars in the form of the cuirassiers. Which seems to apply to MBTs as well - they might be less relevant over time with technological advances but we're still probably not going to see an immediate fadeout into irrelevance.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:08
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Tomn posted:Eh, still not really. Again, armor was relevant clear through to the gunpowder age - crossbows CAN punch through armor under the right circumstances (and fairly short range) but it's by no means a sure thing and they definitely didn't obsolete knightly heavy armor. Neither did arquebuses, in fact, to which the same argument applies but even more so - see for instance reiters who were extremely heavily armored and armed with pistols, and who in a cavalry engagement were expected to ride up to their counterparts and push the pistol up against their enemies point-blank before firing as they would be ineffective otherwise. The thing is tanks can be a force multiplier, but without combined arms and infantry support, they are readily dealt with. And combined arms appears to be lacking in Russia strategy. This isn't unique to modern warfare, although man portable anti-tank systems are much more mature: France suffered from the same issue in World War 2, they had decent armor but no combined arms strategy, which led to their armor being picked off easily without infantry support. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 16:12 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 16:09
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:That feels like armored knights and longbows. Where a longbow handed to a peasant could take down a knight. There is a while they tried adding more and more people to like, clear out archers before the knight arrived and stuff but at some point it became "wait, whats the knight armor even for at this point". There are lots of theories about using such systems in the future (Stryker MGS etc), but there are a few problems, mostly that they die if you look at them funny. There are only a few man portable systems that can reliably kill a modern tank at long rage as you describe. However, there are a huge number of systems that can kill a lightly armored vehicle, including such things as "the autocannon on every infantry fighting vehicle in existence" and the RPG-7. The drone or remote sensor helps the tank a lot. If the tank can see a target within range of the main gun, that target dies or displaces. The classic problem for tanks has been seeing targets. Drones and datalinks potentially mitigate this problem. It's important to recognize that the Russians are basically running armored ops in the least competent way possible. Don't read too much in to it regarding the death of the tank. There will be a lot of super duper hot takes coming out eg TANKS ARE USELESS but I think this is highlighting the importance of UAV based recon (especially distributed recon at a very small unit level), data links, and secure communications between everything more than anything.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:09
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:
You needn't clear a 5km circle around tanks. If they need to do that, something has gone horribly wrong. Basic use of cover and concealment, at the least, cuts down enemy sightlines. Yours, too, but that's besides the point because scout vehicles should have already been out there... scouting for the tanks. Mechanized infantry doesn't just have to follow the tanks around either. They can advance along a more favorable axis as long as the scouts have (again) scouted them out and they don't stray too far from the heavy armor. This supposes that there is zero air support and zero comms from on high. With the backup even a smallish, unarmed drone can provide, chances of survival and success increase. None of that really applies to how the Russians are using their tanks. The scouts would just be let through or destroyed before they could tell anyone what they found, the armor and the infantry can't really leave the road while staying together, and it's mostly flat land. Guderian's basic lessons still apply. If tanks won't work, don't send tanks.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:10
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Boris Galerkin posted:The only source saying it was “fake news” is a random unknown goon that claims to work at Meta. They claimed they emailed an unnamed internal contact and were told it was fake news. As a comms professional, and someone who has worked in PR, if you're taking whatever a PR person says at face value, whether internally or externally, you're basically accepting that you're easy to lie to. Of course the PR person is gonna say it's fake. They're still trying to figure out what to say to an external audience and they definitely don't want it to leak, because then that leak becomes a bigger headache to them. Hell, if I was that unnamed internal contact, I'd lie to the employee too. It's what you're trained to do.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:10
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https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502175936166326272?s=20&t=YZMJfg7xkqFrrsvL8YyAfw Another day with a well put together operational picture for those interested. All the usual caveats apply. I.e. We don't really know where different formations are or what their effective combat strength is, but the analysis seems reasonable, based on plausible OSINT, and has been thought out. If Ukraine truly has 4 regular army bridges in and around Kiev, I'm going to say that even investing Kiev is probably off the table at this stage. The south is where Ukraine is the weakest, and Mariupol will probably fall in a few weeks. I don't see a clear path to relieving it in anything less than months, and I don't see how you get food and water to 400,000 people in that time. That said: every day it holds out is another day those Russian BTGs can't go anywhere. The best bet for Mariupol may be a decisive counter-attack northeast of Kiev. Russian units there may have some Ukrainians surrounded, but their surrounding forces are stretched thin, having supply issues, and there are just a lot of roads in-and-around that area for Ukrainian light infantry to move around. In the meantime, I'd be pushing at least a few of the new territory defense brigades to the south, east of Odessa. The UA 57th Motorized Brigade took a thrashing in the first few days of the war if that interview a few dozen pages back was accurate.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:12
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Seth Pecksniff posted:I mean come on. Lukashenka meets with Putin and then just magically the Ukranians hit a border town in the same day? Do they really think people are that dumb? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjT2FhubAf0 how Lukashenko week/month gonna end probably at this point.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:14
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Carmant posted:Guys come on just look at the loving image they're using for the tweet and stop being so credulous. This is wartime propaganda on both sides. No one is going to nuke the Chernobyl power plant. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Russian provocation at Chernobyl, given how much energy is currently going into wishing into existence some Tom Clancy war crime carried out by Ukraine. I don't think anyone has ever suggested nuking it. Dapper_Swindler posted:they are just gonna kill a ton of people. Yeah, I don't understand how they expect Belarus or Russian soldiers to be able to credibly occupy Belarus as town as if they were Ukrainians, unless they'll do the Russian occupation strategy as we've come to witness in the last 2 days.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:16
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Russian provocation at Chernobyl, given how much energy is currently going into wishing into existence some Tom Clancy war crime carried out by Ukraine. I don't think anyone has ever suggested nuking it. no one said nuking it. the guess is sabotage/blowing up the dome/etc its called they dress up a bunch of Russians soldiers in ukranian uniforms and have them shoot a bunch of folks and then get "chased" off.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:19
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uXs posted:Finland is in the loving EU. The minute Russia attacks Finland, it's now at war with all of the EU. Lol, no they are not. The supposed EU security guarantees are, again, a lot weaker than they are often described to be. Any EU country could fulfill their obligations under them by sending a crate of weapons and some thoughts and prayers. They absolutely do not require a declaration of war in support.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:19
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Tuna-Fish posted:Lol, no they are not. The supposed EU security guarantees are, again, a lot weaker than they are often described to be. Any EU country could fulfill their obligations under them by sending a crate of weapons and some thoughts and prayers. They absolutely do not require a declaration of war in support. Yeah. Do people seriously think Germany will participate in a direct war on Russia if it attacks a non-NATO member?
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Mar 11, 2022 16:21
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Tuna-Fish posted:Lol, no they are not. The supposed EU security guarantees are, again, a lot weaker than they are often described to be. Any EU country could fulfill their obligations under them by sending a crate of weapons and some thoughts and prayers. They absolutely do not require a declaration of war in support. They absolutely would be. The EU is dead as project if neighboring countries can just invade EU member countries.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:21
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Dapper_Swindler posted:no one said nuking it. the guess is sabotage/blowing up the dome/etc That’s what I’m saying. The goon I replied to mentioned nuking.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:21
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Like if you have to clear 5km around a tank for it to even be useable, because everyone has armor piercing weapons anyway, why not just skip the tank all together, send in faster/more armed/cheaper/more lightly armored vehicles then clear 5km around those since you were anyway? Like once you have to go ahead to keep your tank from getting shot what is the benefit for it being a tank? The reason you have tanks is to go in the areas that will get shot up other things couldn't go. If you have to already clear the stuff before the tank can go then just don't have the tank. The tank is very good at doing tank things, as others have said it's combined arms. If someone calls 911 to report that an angry (in this case Ukrainian) bear is slowly mauling someone, you send an EMT to give medical care. You do not send that EMT alone and then say the EMT is useless when he also gets mauled by the angry bear. Boris Galerkin posted:
That's a pretty meta statement. 
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Mar 11, 2022 16:22
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It sounds like Belarusian military is more likely to openly revolt and then Putin has two wars on his hands I thought this guy was supposed to be good at this stuff?
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Mar 11, 2022 16:23
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That’s what I’m saying. The goon I replied to mentioned nuking. i know. i was just confirming. sorry. Atreiden posted:They absolutely would be. The EU is dead as project if neighboring countries can just invade EU member countries. i agree with this. i think if russia invades somewhere else. its an EU war or at least more openly. personally i think they will just try to make some border poo poo.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:23
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More details from the Ukrainian armed forces on the reported provocation in Belarus. Yes yes Nexta but it's a Facebook screenshot https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1502300202471931911?t=OwYAFwOQg4RFHJoHVGKI3g&s=19 Translation image 
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Mar 11, 2022 16:23
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Vorenus posted:The tank is very good at doing tank things, as others have said it's combined arms. If someone calls 911 to report that an angry (in this case Ukrainian) bear is slowly mauling someone, you send an EMT to give medical care. You do not send that EMT alone and then say the EMT is useless when he also gets mauled by the angry bear. Are tanks terrible, or is it just artillery is way more useful. Doesn’t seem to be a lot of debate on the effectiveness of the latter.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:26
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Atreiden posted:They absolutely would be. The EU is dead as project if neighboring countries can just invade EU member countries. Has the EU, or any EU state, said they will use their military to defend Finland in the event of a Russian attack?
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Mar 11, 2022 16:27
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DutchDupe posted:Has the EU, or any EU state, said they will use their military to defend Finland in the event of a Russian attack? have they said they wouldn't? is it even a question that have been asked?
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Mar 11, 2022 16:28
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KitConstantine posted:More details from the Ukrainian armed forces on the reported provocation in Belarus. Yes yes Nexta but it's a Facebook screenshot It's amazing to me for years everyone thought Putin was the 4d chess master, but no he thinks just like every other Z-tier Broke brained James Bond villain we have gotten in the last decade Isn't the military of Belarus openly against the war? This is just going to lead to Lukashenko's permanant vacation to Petrograd
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Mar 11, 2022 16:28
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Atreiden posted:have they said they wouldn't? is it even a question that have been asked? If they haven't said they would, why would we believe they would? NATO says they will defend the Baltics, Poland, etc. If the EU guarantee of security is 100% solid then why not say it.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:29
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DutchDupe posted:Has the EU, or any EU state, said they will use their military to defend Finland in the event of a Russian attack? Much like World War 1 proved: Artillery and Air Cover CAN be very effective, but without ground forces, its not a deciding factor. Command during WW1 actually thought just using artillery would wipe out the enemy. And that didn't happen.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:29
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DutchDupe posted:Yeah. Do people seriously think Germany will participate in a direct war on Russia if it attacks a non-NATO member? Yes. The EU will disintegrate otherwise, because numerous other EU countries will join. Depending on the type of attack the response might be anything from a clusterfuck of staggered and varied responses to an immediate and united response. But it is absurd to believe an EU member could be invaded without the rest of the EU being forced to respond with military assistance. An invasion of Sweden or Finland (outside of grabbing some uninhabited island) would immediately drag in the rest of the EU, perhaps except Hungary.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:30
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KitConstantine posted:More details from the Ukrainian armed forces on the reported provocation in Belarus. Yes yes Nexta but it's a Facebook screenshot i doubt it works and my guess is the BU army has about the same online access we do and their is popular support for the Ukrainians there outside the Lukashenko morons. he gonna get couped if he forces it. TulliusCicero posted:It's amazing to me for years everyone thought Putin was the 4d chess master, but no he thinks just like every other Z-tier Broke brained James Bond villain we have gotten in the last decade or a ditch somewhere. yeah the army are super openly against it.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:30
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DutchDupe posted:If they haven't said they would, why would we believe they would? NATO says they will defend the Baltics, Poland, etc. If the EU guarantee of security is 100% solid then why not say it. Why would they? Like is there a point here you're trying to make?
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Mar 11, 2022 16:30
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DutchDupe posted:Has the EU, or any EU state, said they will use their military to defend Finland in the event of a Russian attack? It would be delusional to think that the rest of EU would just stand by idly if it ever came to that.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:31
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i doubt it works and my guess is the BU army has about the same online access we do and their is popular support for the Ukrainians there outside the Lukashenko morons. he gonna get couped if he forces it. It'd be interesting to see: If the the BU Army rebels, do they cut off the Russian forces in Ukraine at the Belarusian border? That'd be enough to change the entire game. But who knows at this point.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:33
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So according to this false flag, Ukraine was disciplined and waited 15 days to start shelling a militarily insignificant village in the territory of an ally of its enemy because it wanted a bigger challenge?
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Mar 11, 2022 16:33
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Re: armored tactics and general strategic concerns with the emplyoment of armor. A basic level of knowledge can be attained fairly quickly and easily, even by someone without a background in military history or interest beyond the lowest level. Read Achtung Panzer by Heinz Guderian. It's a tract meant for short reading by soldiers. The rules he sets out, a compilation of derived experience and well thought out theory from 1917-early 30's, in the latest edition, are still valid. Call it a few hour's reading. Follow that up with Otto Carius' Tigers in the Mud, the combat memoirs of a Tiger commander, and you'll have the most basic layperson's understanding of tanks and their use. This one will take a native English speaker about a day to read. Both are available on Audibel for $0.00. Anything more specific, follow the US Army's professional reading lists. WW2 set the bar, but there are certainly lessons to be learned past that.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:34
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TulliusCicero posted:It sounds like Belarusian military is more likely to openly revolt and then Putin has two wars on his hands my guess is the belarusian military is stunningly corrupt russia-style (because unlike ukraine it did not have the existential dread of a coming russian invasion to keep it under control, and as a russian puppet run by a strongman it has all of the corruption in spades), and obviously has not been getting javelin shipments nor will it get them in the future even if russia invades given that they're a russian sattelite that has assisted in the invasion of ukraine. so it's less likely to be ukraine II but still would be a pointless and stupid waste of manpower and material for russia (and, potentially, cut off supply lines to the troops attacking kyiv). but, uh, i think we can't assume that just because something would be counterproductive and stupid means that putin won't do it.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:35
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Pook Good Mook posted:So according to this false flag, Ukraine was disciplined and waited 15 days to start shelling a militarily insignificant village in the territory of an ally of its enemy because it wanted a bigger challenge? Ukraine: the Goku of the Military world "'Sir the Russians are in a stalemate, should we press the attack?" "Nah, I want a real fight! Shell Belarus!"
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Mar 11, 2022 16:35
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CommieGIR posted:It'd be interesting to see: If the the BU Army rebels, do they cut off the Russian forces in Ukraine at the Belarusian border? That'd be enough to change the entire game. who knows. i suspect if the army rebels it will try to decapitate the government quick and probably fight against the russians that are in their country. shits gonna be nuts.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:36
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Pook Good Mook posted:So according to this false flag, Ukraine was disciplined and waited 15 days to start shelling a militarily insignificant village in the territory of an ally of its enemy because it wanted a bigger challenge? Not even shelling - bombing from planes that Belarus could see were Russian because they flew from Belarus and then presumably landed in Belarus again.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:36
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TulliusCicero posted:Ukraine: the Goku of the Military world goku would never do that!
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Mar 11, 2022 16:37
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Not sure what that was all about -- unclear if that thing even happened? https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1502297384243666947?cxt=HHwWhoC97d3gndkpAAAA
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Mar 11, 2022 16:37
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Flavahbeast posted:goku would never do that! nah he would show up and ask if any of the people would want to fight him and then wander off to eat.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:39
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