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Orange Devil posted:What happened during the mid '80s exactly? And why? Tafferling answered partially, but there's also the fact of repeated speculative attacks on the currency, which the proto-stabilizing-mechanisms the EC had at the time had actually very little success in defending against and if anything encouraged by offering a sure bet to anyone with large enough capital willing to generate themselves some easy arbitrage money. Those attacks also hosed with debt solvability, as our currency devalued, repeatedly, on top of the already-existing policy of periodic devaluation to preserve export competitiveness. Overall, not a fun time. A lot of important political memes of our era were born in that era, chief among them that we cannot have a welfare state, or a functioning education system, or an oversized (read, functioning) health care system, lest it somehow lead us to inflation and unsolvable debts, which has translated into going on 30 years of transversal budget cuts on public services. Also, none of that has helped with debt solvability so far. 30 years of stalled growth compound the issue. mortons stork fucked around with this message at 08:15 on Apr 5, 2020 |
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Apr 5, 2020 08:09
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PT6A posted:The Germans are probably just stunned by the fact that anyone managed to actually build an airport, completely, and have it operate. Buying airports for them, I assume, would be like paying a wizard because you don't want to be on the bad side of their unknowable powers. The grift is very real, my friend.
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Apr 5, 2020 09:09
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PT6A posted:The Germans are probably just stunned by the fact that anyone managed to actually build an airport, completely, and have it operate. Buying airports for them, I assume, would be like paying a wizard because you don't want to be on the bad side of their unknowable powers. It is probably cheaper to buy an airport somewhere else, disassemble it, and reassemble it near Berlin. I don't fly a lot, but I kind of like the Vienna airport and its direct connection to Vienna. Checking in your luggage in the city and taking a short train to the airport is pretty cool. We should buy it and move it.
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Apr 5, 2020 10:15
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Buying it??? But that is a sin against the hallowed black zero!!!!!
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Apr 5, 2020 10:22
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Italy to deliver Milan Malpensa as tribute to Germany.
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Apr 5, 2020 12:13
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At this point authorities would be glad to pay for someone, anyone, to take that boondoggle off their hands so sounds like a win win to me.
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Apr 5, 2020 12:40
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Italy to deliver Milan Malpensa as tribute to Germany. Ahhh, Just in time for the Anschluss(flug)
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Apr 5, 2020 12:45
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Antigravitas posted:It is probably cheaper to buy an airport somewhere else, disassemble it, and reassemble it near Berlin. Nah! Importing things from Austria has historically been a bad idea.
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Apr 5, 2020 18:49
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Not a Mozart fan?
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Apr 6, 2020 19:16
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Sooo... one (serious) newspaper in Spain mentioned that, according to a poll, the EU is viewed as a burden more than a boon by 67% of the population, and 87% consider the EU has left Italy out to dry. What do you guys think is going to happen? Because I might not like the EU, but if its end comes it's not going to be pretty. It's going to be chaotic.
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Apr 7, 2020 10:58
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To me it's just pain now or pain later.
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Apr 7, 2020 11:17
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Dawncloack posted:Sooo... one (serious) newspaper in Spain mentioned that, according to a poll, the EU is viewed as a burden more than a boon by 67% of the population, and 87% consider the EU has left Italy out to dry. In the context of the coronacrisis, those are entirely accurate assessments.
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Apr 7, 2020 11:26
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I think we'll weather the corona storm but as soon as there is an opportunity, if I were a spanish or italian populist, I'd start looking for a way to exit the euro*, and demand my representatives start vetoing everything in "Brussels". It's going to get very very nasty, and we weren't exactly camaraderly before . * whether that's actually an option will not be a limitation for populists
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Apr 7, 2020 11:49
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Well, good news on that front, since current object of discussions is the 7 year budget 21-27, and it looks like no political solution has yet materialized on how to deal with the crisis!
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Apr 7, 2020 11:58
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double nine posted:I think we'll weather the corona storm but as soon as there is an opportunity, if I were a spanish or italian populist, I'd start looking for a way to exit the euro*, and demand my representatives start vetoing everything in "Brussels". Could the Spanish state avoid bankruptcy, if it were to leave the Eurozone? A major European economy going through bankruptcy would be quite a sight. Make zombie movies look like the good times in comparison.
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Apr 7, 2020 12:08
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GABA ghoul posted:Could the Spanish state avoid bankruptcy, if it were to leave the Eurozone? A major European economy going through bankruptcy would be quite a sight. Make zombie movies look like the good times in comparison. I assume not - trying to escape the euro will instantly start the mother off all bank runs as everyone tries to dump their savings in a German bank and everyone loaning to Italy/Spain/... or Italian/spanish/... firms demands infinity interest rates edit: the funny thing is I think a redistribution-oriented movement could maybe pull it off. Story time: After ww2, Belgium did a grand reset. Basically in order to stabilize prices, and they didn't want anyone who was lucky enough to escape the war intact (or worse: enriched themselves through collaboration or price-gauging) to have a massive advantage in the post-war society, all pre-war francs had to be exchanged at the post office at a fixed rate. And each household had a maximum of 2000 new francs they could own. So while it does nothing to redistribute wealth-generating assets like factories or landlordism, it still was a massive inequality reset. Trying to escape the euro could be done in a similar manner for domestic purposes at least, but then the rich wouldn't be as rich anymore, so that's where rightwing parties will tap out. And if your country is dependent on exports and imports, you'll be at the mercy of the exchange rates. double nine fucked around with this message at 13:02 on Apr 7, 2020 |
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Apr 7, 2020 12:25
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Obviously that would be very real possibility, and it would suck. But would we be better of inside the eurozone? Pain now or pain later, indeed.
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Apr 7, 2020 12:51
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Dawncloack posted:Obviously that would be very real possibility, and it would suck. On a quick glance, Spain has seen declining public debt for a couple of years and has had constant growth in important metrics like HDI. What kind of pain are you anticipating from the Eurozone that would rival the horror of a state insolvency? I see it as a possible option for Greece in the early 2010s, but Spain today seems like a totally different story.
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Apr 7, 2020 13:09
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Dawncloack posted:Obviously that would be very real possibility, and it would suck. It's going to be pain now and more pain later.
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Apr 7, 2020 13:17
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GABA ghoul posted:On a quick glance, Spain has seen declining public debt for a couple of years and has had constant growth in important metrics like HDI. What kind of pain are you anticipating from the Eurozone that would rival the horror of a state insolvency? I see it as a possible option for Greece in the early 2010s, but Spain today seems like a totally different story. on the outset, the european union was built on the notion of solidarity. The eurocrisis in 2010 and now the corona crisis show that the countries that profit most from the euro (netherlands, germany et al) have to be dragged kicking and screaming to actually carry out that solidarity in times of need, and right now I give greater odds that nothing substantially will change to help italy and spain. By god I hope I'm wrong. Why do we want to stay in a club where the motto is "take what you can give nothing back"?
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Apr 7, 2020 13:33
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GABA ghoul posted:On a quick glance, Spain has seen declining public debt for a couple of years and has had constant growth in important metrics like HDI. What kind of pain are you anticipating from the Eurozone that would rival the horror of a state insolvency? I see it as a possible option for Greece in the early 2010s, but Spain today seems like a totally different story. "Hey, Spain, our banks made a ton of bad bets in your real state. You are going to make them whole with public money, also reduce public salaries and break unions, or ELSE". That was the letter that the ECB sent to the Spanish prime minister the 5th of August 2011. State insolvency is bad, obviously. Being part of a poo poo union that will wreck anyone's legs to protect Deutsche Bank and French banks.... is that better? Still the change will be chaotic and it's not like what comes after is in any way good. Obviously. But the whole "Stronger together" "together we matter more" and "the EU is based on solidarity" are laughable jokes at this point.
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Apr 7, 2020 13:57
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Dawncloack posted:"Hey, Spain, our banks made a ton of bad bets in your real state. You are going to make them whole with public money, also reduce public salaries and break unions, or ELSE". Holy poo poo lol that letter. Unbelievable.
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Apr 7, 2020 14:11
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And we could also mention how, after 15 yers of immobility, the parliament decided to end the "double irish with a side of dutch" tax avoidance scheme.... 5 years from the decision. Or the tax havens. Or the horrid abuse of human rights not tolerated but *committed* by the eu when they contracted some lybian warlords, named them "lybian coastguard" and proceeded to give them money, and the locations of boats so this "coast guard" could take them. To the land of honey and european values I presume. Or how the entire agreement offered to the UK before the brexit vote amounted to "you may poo poo on your working class even more". Or the Selmayr coup. Or the Monti coup in Italy. Or how the Lisbon treaty allows EC o and EC to completely bypass the parliament by putting things in international agreements (while touting that the parliament had been strengthened!!). Or the "referendums will continue until the peasant vote right" in Ireland. Or how ms. "Refugees welcome" is still applying the Lisbon treaty a.d sending the welcome refugees to Lesbos. And Greece of course. In case anyone is interested, Varoufakis published the audios. They are everything this thread expected. Again, not saying it will be pretty (Russian influence? Ugh) but let's be clear that if the EU falls it will be its own fault, because it was a grift for corporations, with good PR.
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Apr 7, 2020 14:46
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double nine posted:on the outset, the european union was built on the notion of solidarity. The eurocrisis in 2010 and now the corona crisis show that the countries that profit most from the euro (netherlands, germany et al) have to be dragged kicking and screaming to actually carry out that solidarity in times of need, and right now I give greater odds that nothing substantially will change to help italy and spain. By god I hope I'm wrong. because that's also the club's motto when it comes to dealing with people outside the club, only now you have a worse negotiating position and everybody else has even less of a reason to give a poo poo about what you need or want.
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Apr 7, 2020 18:33
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Italy and Spain are far too integrated in the EU to be able to pull back now without committing economic suicide, it sucks. I for one welcome our new northern overlords.
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Apr 7, 2020 18:48
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We should all, as countries in the EU go gleefully, wide-eyed into eternal magical debt because money is fake and the only people who hate poor people having consequence free debt are the loving rich.
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Apr 7, 2020 20:07
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Spoiler alert: the EU will die because it's built on falsehoods. Want the EU to work? Stop being German. Stop being French stop being nations and accept state hood.
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Apr 7, 2020 20:27
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the EU is built on solidarity between the bourgeoisie and the state bureacracies themselves. the whole idea was to prevent another war by harmonising the interests of the various national bourgeoisies. of course, when most of the actual doctrine of the EU was made the immortal science of neoliberalism had begun to seriously seep through the cracks and whooops turns out that a byzantine system of interlocking quasi-democratic institutions are hard to keep accountable
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Apr 8, 2020 00:11
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The lack of accountability is a feature, not a bug, as evidenced by the existence of the Eurogroup. Speaking of which, nothing useful came out of yesterday's meeting. Seems northern countries are willing to let the whole thing explode so long as they don't have to touch their precious schwarze null.
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Apr 8, 2020 08:14
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Lol, the Netherlands blowing up the EU was something I did not see coming.
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Apr 8, 2020 08:22
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It's really funny because this is the ideal condition to start a massive investment program and countercyclical spending since you've just been graciously given advance warning of the coming symmetric shock(wave) that will wreck Western economies' internal demand, global trading ties, and possibly put a dent on globalization itself. But, on the other hand, this might be the perfect time to get those pesky pigs to finally accept neoliberalism so bickering it is until our entire productive system collapses.
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Apr 8, 2020 08:37
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The EU doesn't have a fiscal union. This is the crack that will have someone else holocausted for the cause of Nationalism.
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Apr 8, 2020 08:39
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mortons stork posted:It's really funny because this is the ideal condition to start a massive investment program and countercyclical spending since you've just been graciously given advance warning of the coming symmetric shock(wave) that will wreck Western economies' internal demand, global trading ties, and possibly put a dent on globalization itself. But, on the other hand, this might be the perfect time to get those pesky pigs to finally accept neoliberalism so bickering it is until our entire productive system collapses. If it were up to me, both Eurobonds and the fiscal safety net would be approved already. Like...this is just so obviously ghoulish.
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Apr 8, 2020 08:40
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An insane mind posted:If it were up to me, both Eurobonds and the fiscal safety net would be approved already. I'm sorry, I didn't mean to say you in particular were responsible. I should've formulated it better. I was saying that policymakers are so impossibly absorbed in their own colon that despite ample advance warning given to them of the storm coming they've insisted to hold a vote on getting to a refuge and continue to insist on standing outside until they get to call dibs on who sleeps on the floor. Also in this metaphor everyone is chained together at the hands and feet.
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Apr 8, 2020 08:43
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mortons stork posted:I'm sorry, I didn't mean to say you in particular were responsible. I should've formulated it better. I was saying that policymakers are so impossibly absorbed in their own colon that despite ample advance warning given to them of the storm coming they've insisted to hold a vote on getting to a refuge and continue to insist on standing outside until they get to call dibs on who sleeps on the floor. Also in this metaphor everyone is chained together at the hands and feet. Oh I knew you didn't mean me in as a person. It was more just a post out of hopelessness. Like, what the gently caress, just approve the aid, people are literally dying and more will die without it. If we're at war with the coronavirus, we should drag people like Hoekstra in front of the court in the Hague for warcrimes after this.
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Apr 8, 2020 09:03
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What's funny is that even conservative German economists, who usually are the ones singing Schwarze Null! while burning the heart of a sacrificial victim on the altar of neoliberalism, are crying for coronabonds, and Merkel+Steinmeier are all "no bonds, ESM only, final destination". https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/corona-bonds-anleihen-schulden-eu-1.4868017
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Apr 8, 2020 09:16
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Current Italy macroeconomic predictions for next quarters of 2020 are in the -10% GDP range. I imagine any country who will do a lockdown will experience something similar. This is a good time to enforce balanced budgets and ensure we don't spend beyond our means.
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Apr 8, 2020 09:37
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They've just published the numbers for the first quarter in France : GDP fell by 6%. Every fortnight in lockdown results in a 1.5% drop in yearly GDP, so a quarter of that drop was over the last 3 weeks (corrected for being poo poo at maths). Total economic activity fell by 32%. Since the economic growth in the last quarter of 2019 was also negative (-0.1% lol), France is officially entering a recession.
Kassad fucked around with this message at 09:50 on Apr 8, 2020 |
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Apr 8, 2020 09:46
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Kassad posted:They've just published the numbers for the first quarter in France : GDP fell by 6%. Every fortnight in lockdown results in a 1.5% drop in yearly GDP, so a quarter of that drop was over the last 3 weeks (corrected for being poo poo at maths). Total economic activity fell by 32%. Since the economic growth in the last quarter of 2019 was also negative (-0.1% lol), France is officially entering a recession. So will the Dutch. So will the whole world, because of Corona everything is grinding to a halt. We need to come together in these times. All this neolib bullshit has to go. How can you go tut-tut fiscal responsibility plz when people are dying? Meh. I need to step away for a bit...but I can't because I'm not allowed outside.
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Apr 8, 2020 09:55
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This thread is bad for my mental health because reading about EU politics makes me wish the corona pandemic would kill more people.
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Apr 8, 2020 10:26
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