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Shwqa posted:I grew up with dogs and they make me happy. The hell am I going to me myself less happy to fit better into a capitalist system. Yeah, that's exactly the cognitive dissonance I'm talking about. So you get to stick it to the man by having fewer choices and paying more. You really showed that capitalist who's boss (spoiler alert: it's them when you make choices like this)
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Nov 30, 2020 01:55
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Motronic posted:I think everyone posting in BFC is aware of this. Do you think that makes my point invalid? If so, why? The stock market represents publicly traded companies like General Electric. It doesn't directly account for private businesses, governments or economic activities of individuals from retirees to children. The economy right now is absolutely on life support due to the pandemic through a variety means appear to be working but largely targeted enormously large enterprise companies because that's what Trump and the Republican Party decided. What's getting complicated about this whole situation is that despite all of this is that the pandemic isn't over, it's getting worse and many of supports given towards lower or middle class families are about to run out. Biden's presidency looks great but we've still got Trump for another month. Even with Biden in the White House he's facing a combative Congress and who the hell knows what will happen... maybe his recover plans won't work just due to bad luck. Maybe his plans will work but what if the vaccine fails or it takes years to distribute? There's a ton of variance and we're still deep in the woods. Hence, it doesn't make sense with something like - "The economy is going well because the stock market is doing well." because the Stock Market is merely just one part of the economy that's geared towards benefiting investors not necessarily individual consumers.
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Nov 30, 2020 02:04
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I think the only part of that that's relevant to this thread is that people who could afford a house before can now afford 2 Nobody went from Able to Buy A House to Unable to Buy A House as a result of covid
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Nov 30, 2020 02:09
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Shwqa posted:I'm in Reno, Nevada. We are facing the exodus of California and many other self inflicted issues. I wonder if places like Reno are in the exception, isn't it kind of a resort touristy town with Lake Tahoe? In any case, for the most part rents should be decreasing or remaining flat and the data we do have shows that's the case overall.
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Nov 30, 2020 02:14
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Also, Great informative posts by others. Thanks!
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Nov 30, 2020 02:15
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MeruFM posted:sure but it's more savings than renting a 4k place It also costs you ~10% of the purchase price of the home to buy and sell between seller concessions, closing costs and commissions. So your total cost can be more than your out of pocket expenses if you don't live there for very long. A homeowner will have other out of pocket costs like repairs that a landlord would be responsible for if you are renting. And on the flip if you get lucky with how the market is going, you can come out ahead owning even after just a short period.
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Nov 30, 2020 03:38
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Gabriel S. posted:The stock market represents publicly traded companies like General Electric. It doesn't directly account for private businesses, governments or economic activities of individuals from retirees to children. The economy right now is absolutely on life support due to the pandemic through a variety means appear to be working but largely targeted enormously large enterprise companies because that's what Trump and the Republican Party decided. None of this is responsive. I didn't claim the economy was doing well because the stock market is doing well. Also the stock market is absolutely NOT just "publicly traded companies like General Electric" It doesn't DIRECLY account for "private businesses, governments or economic activities of individuals from retirees to children" but it matters a poo poo load to different extents to different parts of that population you've identified. Gabriel S. posted:Hence, it doesn't make sense with something like - "The economy is going well because the stock market is doing well." "Hence" no one said that here. Who do you think said that?
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Nov 30, 2020 03:38
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If it was just temporary relief measures holding everything up you would expect transactions to dry up, even if there isn't a wave of foreclosures. But everything I'm tracking on the market is moving quickly and selling.
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Nov 30, 2020 03:41
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Motronic posted:"Hence" no one said that here. Maybe I am not following you here, what do you mean by this last comment when you responded to this post? I'm interrupting this as you disagreeing with the poster above. tater_salad posted:Keep in mind that there are lots of crutches keeping the US economy afloat and people with extra money. Some of that is running out soon. The economy hasn't really cooled much Motronic posted:Much? We hit all time stock market highs last week.
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Nov 30, 2020 03:55
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Throatwarbler posted:If it was just temporary relief measures holding everything up you would expect transactions to dry up, even if there isn't a wave of foreclosures. But everything I'm tracking on the market is moving quickly and selling. Many of the relief measures don't expire until the end of this year. Not to mention, some industries are doing incredibly well like technology. What are you going to do with all that extra income especially when interest rates are super low? It's not like people can spend time doing stuff unless it's indoors with small group of friends or family.
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Nov 30, 2020 03:59
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Gabriel S. posted:Maybe I am not following you here, what do you mean by this last comment when you responded to this post? I'm interrupting this as you disagreeing with the poster above. I'm disagreeing with the word "much". This is why it was the first word in my post, echoing the post I replied to. I didn't think that was too difficult to suss out or I would have made it more obvious. Yes, I'm disagreeing with the "poster above" in magnitude. The US economy has barely cooled off at ALL in aggregate. This is insane considering what is actually happening.
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Nov 30, 2020 04:01
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I'm still a little unclear but let's just simplify this... are you saying that the US Economy is doing well? Looking at unemployment claims, workforce participation, mortgage and rent payments, etc. that doesn't appear to be the case at all? How are you reaching this conclusion?
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Nov 30, 2020 04:15
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Gabriel S. posted:I'm still a little unclear but let's just simplify this... are you saying that the US Economy is doing well? Looking at unemployment claims, workforce participation, mortgage and rent payments, etc. that doesn't appear to be the case at all? How the economy is doing and how the majority of the population are doing financially are two totally different things.
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Nov 30, 2020 04:29
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:I think the only part of that that's relevant to this thread is that people who could afford a house before can now afford 2 I just got laid off and was planning on buying a house in May. I don't have income any more so I assume I can't get a mortgage any more either. I went from 'being able to put down 20% in Denver' to 'can't buy a house anywhere'.
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Nov 30, 2020 04:46
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redreader posted:I just got laid off and was planning on buying a house in May. I don't have income any more so I assume I can't get a mortgage any more either. I went from 'being able to put down 20% in Denver' to 'can't buy a house anywhere'. First and foremost my condolences! What industry are you in? Seems out of the ordinary for a high paying field to be laying people off due to covid, only now
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Nov 30, 2020 04:50
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SpartanIvy posted:How the economy is doing and how the majority of the population are doing financially are two totally different things. Okay fine and with that said how are reaching the conclusion the economy is doing well?
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Nov 30, 2020 04:54
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In 2015 I was working for a st. louis based company that opened an office in the bay area. First day on the job my st. louis based boss said 'you get a lot of money, so you'd better be good'. He repeated similar sentiments over the next few years. Three years later I heard there were layoffs as I was on my way to work, so I immediately walked in and said goodbye to everyone, and got laid off. I resolved to never work for a company based in a cheaper state again. The next job I got, was for a company in the bay area. They got acquired by a company with engineering based in Denver, and they just laid me off (lol, I went against my resolution!). Nobody there minded my salary, but I was told by two managers "never tell anyone your salary ever, nobody else is on as much as you are in QA". Also I'm QA "Senior Software Developer in Test", and we ALWAYS get laid off first. At the startup I worked at that got acquired, my manager asked me one week "what do you do, vs what <person> does?" and I replied, "well, I do X and she does Y, but I covered for her a few months ago so I can do everything she can do, but she can't do what I can do" and she was laid off the week after that. I've never worked anywhere in the bay area that hasn't had layoffs.
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Nov 30, 2020 04:55
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Shwqa posted:I'm in Reno, Nevada. We are facing the exodus of California and many other self inflicted issues. Of course it's not pretty. It's Reno.
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Nov 30, 2020 05:00
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Gabriel S. posted:Okay fine and with that said how are reaching the conclusion the economy is doing well? Stock market numbers go up and megacorporations are making billions in profit
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Nov 30, 2020 05:57
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Gabriel S. posted:Many of the relief measures don't expire until the end of this year. Not to mention, some industries are doing incredibly well like technology. What are you going to do with all that extra income especially when interest rates are super low? It's not like people can spend time doing stuff unless it's indoors with small group of friends or family. In addition to this there are huge disparities by income as far as who is most affected. I forget the exact number but whatever article I read a few weeks ago (great citation I know - it was probably the economist) said that people who we’re making over $75k before all this went down ended up coming out ahead financially, mostly due to WFH killing commute costs and not being able to spend money on vacations and entertainment. Meanwhile people making less on average, hurting. It scales in both directions - someone drawing $250k is in great shape even compared to their pre COVID finances and someone making $20 is probably FUUUUUUUCKED. The tldr of it is that in the US the majority of lower paid jobs are in the service or retail sectors and those are the ones with the double whammy of no real WFH options and customers who don’t want to come in as much for fear of getting sick. That’s the “k shaped recovery” that you’ll find every talking head mentioning if you’re following reporting on it. Google that and you’ll find smarter people than me laying out actual numbers (as well as the typical click bait bullshit of course) Edit: which means that the very people most likely to be in a position to buy a house are also the most likely to be unaffected by this poo poo. There are exceptions of course, but on the scale of population- wide generalities and buying trends it mostly holds true.
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Nov 30, 2020 14:42
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Gabriel S. posted:Okay fine and with that said how are reaching the conclusion the economy is doing well? No one said it's doing "well". You have a reading comprehension issue. Let's review the two quotes you have been responding to. tater_salad posted:Keep in mind that there are lots of crutches keeping the US economy afloat and people with extra money. Some of that is running out soon. The economy hasn't really cooled much Let's pause and make sure you understand this one. Are there any questions as to what tater means? No? Good. I responded: Motronic posted:Much? We hit all time stock market highs last week. Get it? Tater and I are discussing the amount the economy has cooled. My not very subtle suggestion is that the economy hasn't cooled enough for the reality of this situation because one major aspect that comprises arguably about half of the economy, the stock market, has his all time highs last week. Do you understand the context of the thing you keep responding to now?
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Nov 30, 2020 17:15
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There's no way in hell the current ticker of the S&P500 or DOW represents about half the economy.
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Nov 30, 2020 17:25
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Andy Dufresne posted:There's no way in hell the current ticker of the S&P500 or DOW represents about half the economy. Et tu? About half the economy is in reference to "the stock market", which is a loose way of describing several different entities comprising the NYSE, NASDAQ and the minors that still exist like CBOE, PHX, CHX. You know, securities markets.
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Nov 30, 2020 17:38
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Of course there are other tickers. Even in aggregate they don't correlate to the health of the economy. They don't even correlate to the health of the companies they index. It would be a huge derail to get into why stock prices have become so detached from the health of the economy, but they have.  Or alternatively, for live data: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio Andy Dufresne fucked around with this message at 17:50 on Nov 30, 2020 |
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Nov 30, 2020 17:43
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Andy Dufresne posted:Of course there are other tickers. Even in aggregate they don't correlate to the health of the economy. They don't even correlate to the health of the companies they index. Yet what I'm talking about is how much of the US economy they comprise. On average, US capital markets are equal to our GDP. You're going to hand wave that off because it's not indicative of the entire economy or the health of the underlying individual securities being traded? That's not a rational position.
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Nov 30, 2020 17:50
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So if US equity markets dip 20% next week are you going to argue that "about half" of the US economy lost 20% of its productive capacity, for a 10% drop in annualized GDP over the course of a week? I wonder what your opinion would have been on March 1st when equity markets largely matched October 2017 prices. Is today's price ephemeral or was March's? Or are they both equally meaningless.
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Nov 30, 2020 17:59
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Andy Dufresne posted:So if US equity markets dip 20% next week are you going to argue that "about half" of the US economy lost 20% of its productive capacity, for a 10% drop in annualized GDP over the course of a week? I'm not going to teach econ 101 here. I'm trying to point out that you shouldn't just stick your head in the sand because you read an article titled "The Stock Market Is Not The Economy".
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Nov 30, 2020 18:02
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This is turning from a derail into a dumb argument that isn't really about home-buying any more. I try not to mod in places that aren't mine to do so, but Moneyball isn't around right now (I believe he's taking a break with Thanksgiving and all) and I'm pretty sure he wouldn't have a problem with me giving you all a polite "move on." So do that. Move on and talk about home prices or something not arguments about macroeconomics and the relationship between Mainstreet and Wall Street.
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Nov 30, 2020 18:17
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Don't forget the other great divide that exists propping up home prices even though many are struggling: inter-generational wealth transfer. Boomers currently hold 40 trillion in wealth (that's trillion with a T) that will flow largely to their children (Millennials) over the next decade or two. Some of the transfer has already started: almost half (43%) of Millennials have received money from family to help purchase their home. So, if your parents aren't well-off, that's a big disadvantage you're bringing to the housing competition.
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Nov 30, 2020 18:31
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Motronic posted:Yet what I'm talking about is how much of the US economy they comprise. On average, US capital markets are equal to our GDP. You're going to hand wave that off because it's not indicative of the entire economy or the health of the underlying individual securities being traded? I would argue stock price is only a measure of demand or lack thereof for the underlying equities. If you loan trillions of dollars of low interest zero recourse debt people will buy things with it even if they have to pay multiples of its value. So housing prices depend solely on the feds ability and willingness to continue to loan money at zero interest rates to their frat brothers and sisters.
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Nov 30, 2020 19:50
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Bringing it back to home buying, we are supposed to close Thursday, and the underwriter came back today asking for more docs despite asking them every day for 2 weeks if they needed anything else. Everyone always says this will happen every time, and you’re always like nah not for me; and then it does happen and what the gently caress why is this so hard.
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Nov 30, 2020 21:51
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Sometimes I feel like when we buy our second/next house some day, things will be easier since we've gone through it once already. Sounds like it never is.
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Nov 30, 2020 22:09
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Lol that didn't take long. Just got a letter in the mail that our mortgage got sold on, and apparently it was sold within two weeks of us signing. It was sold before we got moved in. I knew this was going to happen, but I'm still laughing at how fast it went down.
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Nov 30, 2020 22:49
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The only reason we can have 30 year fixed rate mortgages is if the loans are securitized and pushed out to be backed by a quasi-governmental corporation. So yeah, it will be sold as soon as the paperwork to Fannie Mae gets filled out. As a home owner you should only care about who's servicing the mortgage, because that's the front end of the financial Mammon which greases the entire edifice.
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Nov 30, 2020 23:31
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kw0134 posted:The only reason we can have 30 year fixed rate mortgages is if the loans are securitized and pushed out to be backed by a quasi-governmental corporation. So yeah, it will be sold as soon as the paperwork to Fannie Mae gets filled out. As a home owner you should only care about who's servicing the mortgage, because that's the front end of the financial Mammon which greases the entire edifice. Servicing will change too, so there's really no point in even paying attention to it. Just chase the best rates from any lender that won't gently caress around and screw up closing.
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Nov 30, 2020 23:42
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> Business, Finance, and Careers > House-buying thread - The front end of the financial Mammon which greases the entire edifice.
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Dec 1, 2020 00:51
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So I'm looking at a house in my hot real estate market. It has several properties that have sold nearby during the pandemic for under our max, or reasonably over considering the advantages it has compared to the one we're looking at (1.5 stories vs just a ground floor, finished deck, better finished kitchen, move-in-ready income apartment in the basement vs at least a significant reno to put in a kitchen). The one we're looking at has a 14 year old roof and a small master bedroom and is a little weirdly laid out. They've listed it for wildly below the surrounding houses. But it also backs onto a cemetery, which affects the resale value, especially with the shoddy neighbour fences and non-existent cemetery fence. You have a clear view of it from the kitchen and bedroom. So, I said to hell with it, it actually suits MY family perfectly. And I'm going to offer 90k over asking (max minus 40k). My real estate agent then goes on to say that she thinks it will go for my max AT LEAST. When I asked her why, she won't provide answers, just the feel of the market. Am I correct in thinking she's just horny for the sale and wants to make sure there's no question? Is she gunshy because there's just one offer day and possibly one round?
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Dec 1, 2020 01:21
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redbrouw posted:So I'm looking at a house in my hot real estate market. Only you know your agent, ours countered our intuition in both directions and was right each time. What are the closest comparables (similar square footage, no big renos) going for? If the market is hot, it's probably not selling that much below those and this property is priced to sell.
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Dec 1, 2020 02:00
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Wow sorry to start a million post derail. Here's what I mean. Everyone who is jobless due to a massive worldwide pandemic is still able to pay / defer their mortgage due to the crutches that the US government has set forth. Therefore while teetering on an economic downturn which would lead to lower housing prices due to high inventory and less qualified buyers this is not the case. Everyone is still paying or deferred there mortgage, foreclosures aren't really happening. In many markets prices are high because inventory is low with respect to buyers. It's a bad time to buy if you don't need to. Most houses are going for ++ money because there's multiple bids etc. I bought a house, lived in it for 4ish years and sold for somewhere around 40k more than I paid with little to no improvements. It closed 2 months before the pandemic kicked into gear. Actually, my ex left it in a worse state than when we bought it. It would have probably sold for the same now because of the things I mentioned above. The market is stupid right now. I'm very glad I bought my house as the pandemic kicked off. The sellers were trying to get rid of the 'estate' house and decided fuckit let's sell now at the appraisal price when it underaprsised instead of waiting to see what happened. tater_salad fucked around with this message at 03:11 on Dec 1, 2020 |
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Dec 1, 2020 02:52
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Getting back on topic has anyone ever lived in a studio or even something smaller like a Micro-Apartment? I'm talking about less than 600 Square Feet but usually around 200-400sqft. They're affordable, in dense urban areas and it's been described to me kind of like living in a yacht. The ones I've been looking at are pretty well designed with custom hidden closets, high-end appliances, etc. What I want to know is has anyone ever made just adjustment that's used to living in larger apartments, houses, twin homes, etc. How troublesome are things like Murphy Beds? Did claustrophobia set in after few months?
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Dec 1, 2020 03:04
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