Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
wdarkk
Oct 26, 2007

Friends: Protected
World: Saved
Crablettes: Eaten

Dapper_Swindler posted:

same. it feels like watching those cases about "faith healing" and how some kid dies of something fixable because the parents are monster and or idiots. I dont think Venezuela can be saved in the short term at least while the PSUV reigns. I just dont know why people havent risen up yet.

The answer is on this page: the only people who have weapons are the people who are connected to the PSUV or criminals (who are sort of connected to the PSUV).

EDIT: Looks a little silly as the first post of a new page.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Why do socialist states turn into mafia states when socialism crumbles?

drilldo squirt
Aug 18, 2006

a beautiful, soft meat sack
Clapping Larry

LeoMarr posted:

Why do socialist states turn into mafia states when socialism crumbles?

People replace money with who you know and favors which is how the mob works. Is my guess.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

LeoMarr posted:

Why do socialist states turn into mafia states when socialism crumbles?

Because a moral goverment official with lots of power can't provide for himself or his family in a poorly managed/corrupt economy. They also become seen as a threat to any corrupt officials.

A corrupt government official with the same power can supplement his income to live a wealthy life through graft and favors. Then use that and the connections it creates to further his own influence and power.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
The price increases to internet/mobile phone plans that were scheduled to come into effect on August 1 have been halted. The increases would have seen some plans jump from the Bs. 600-700 per month range to Bs. 6,500-7,500 range, which is close to 50% of the average worker's salary for the entire month.

CONATEL, the government body that oversees the communications industry in the country, issued this statement last night:

quote:

The National Telecommunications Commission is making it known to telecommunication service operators, subscribers and the population in general that under instructions from the President of the Republic, Nicolas Maduro Moros, price increases to all telecommunications services throughout the territory of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela are halted.

The President of the Republic has instructed the immediate formation of a working group to be made up [service] operators and related public entities to review all of the issues connected to providing services and developing the telecommunications and technology sector, which is a strategic engine of the Bolivarian Economic Agenda.

President Maduro will not stop working to guarantee the right to the democratization of access to information and communication technologies for the Venezuelan people. The working group with the telecommunications sector will meet this next Monday, August 1, 2016.

Three cheers for Maduro!

Another story in the news today alleges that a Venezuelan state-owned company was involved in a money laundering scheme with an Argentinian company.

A man named Juan Jose Levy is on trial in Argentina for money laundering. Levy is somehow connected to an Argentinian company called ESME, which sold personal hygiene and cleaning products to SUVINCA, a Venezuelan state-owned company. ESME signed a contract with SUVINCA worth $90 million, which represents an overcharge of 60% for the products purchased. The products were never delivered. ESME is suspected of having been involved in a money laundering scheme through its dealings with SUVINCA. Levy is allegedly well-connected with the government of former Argentinian president Cristina Kirchner.

Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 17:50 on Jul 30, 2016

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
I just read a piece on La Patilla that I think does a really great job at illustrating the kind of out-of-this-world corruption/incompetence affecting the Venezuelan government, the result of which we're seeing today. The article is here, and what follows below is my summary of it.

Elias Jaua was the Minister of Agriculture in 2009. That year, he came to Chavez with a proposal: Jaua requested $348.6 million for a project that would increase chicken and egg production in the country. The project involved the Empresa Mixta Avicola del Alba, a state-owned company, with cooperation from the Argentinian government. The money would come from the Fondo Chino [Chinese Fund], a fund the Venezuelan government created with Chinese financing to act as a type of slush fund for government projects.

Jaua's project had a projected timeline of 2009-2015, and was broken down in the following way:
  • Phase I (2009-2010) would produce 175 million eggs and 15,000 tonnes of chicken meat that year.
  • Phase II (2011-2015) would add 105,000 tonnes of chicken meat per year by 2015, and another 175 million eggs.
Jaua claimed that the money requested was needed to build 32 chicken-holding facilities, 2 reproduction farms, 2 incubation facilities, 16 hatcheries and 24 egg-laying warehouses.

La Patilla points out that by 2013, the project had essentially evaporated, and that the Ministry of Agriculture's official report to the National Assembly that year - a 329 page document - contained a single mention of the project. That year, the project produced just 2,000 tons of chicken meat (only 3.6% of the yearly target) and 6,080 egg cartons (only 1% of the yearly target).

That's $348.6 million dollars that completely disappeared in a matter of 4 years on a single project that didn't produce 5% of the food it was supposed to. The money disappeared and no one even asked where it went, since the National Assembly was controlled by the PSUV then.

And that was just one measly single little project.

Labradoodle
Nov 24, 2011

Crax daubentoni
I would kill to get a peek into the kind of stuff the current assembly must be uncovering these days if they have access to economic data from these past years. The scale of corruption that must have gone on in order to basically bankrupt the country during the biggest windfall in its history – and with hardly anything to show for it – must be absolutely mind-boggling.

Demiurge4
Aug 10, 2011

Labradoodle posted:

I would kill to get a peek into the kind of stuff the current assembly must be uncovering these days if they have access to economic data from these past years. The scale of corruption that must have gone on in order to basically bankrupt the country during the biggest windfall in its history – and with hardly anything to show for it – must be absolutely mind-boggling.

From his palace the senior PSUV member waves his arm at a collection of lovely slums, abandoned factory foundations and a quaint little chicken farm with a sign out front saying 'The worlds biggest chicken megafarm!'

"99%"

I dont know
Aug 9, 2003

That Guy here...
This seems almost scripted surrealism, I encounter these two headlines randomly placed next to each other on a news aggregator when search on the food situation.

Let Them Eat Cake: Venezuela Celebrates Chavez’ Birthday With $100,000 Cake, While Citizens Starve

Venezuelan children express hunger in drawings

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
That's the sort of thing that could make somebody angry.

NLJP
Aug 26, 2004


I dont know posted:

This seems almost scripted surrealism, I encounter these two headlines randomly placed next to each other on a news aggregator when search on the food situation.

Let Them Eat Cake: Venezuela Celebrates Chavez’ Birthday With $100,000 Cake, While Citizens Starve

Venezuelan children express hunger in drawings

This is just horrific :( I've spent the last decade or so thinking North Korea was the next big crisis that would blow up with an imploding country, mass starvation and huge regional and international knockon effects but it looks like it's a race to the bottom and Venezuela is flooring it hard.

Anyway fnox, any updates on how you're doing now you've been a month or so in Europe? Any way to get in touch since you don't have PMs?

Spacewolf
May 19, 2014

I dont know posted:

This seems almost scripted surrealism, I encounter these two headlines randomly placed next to each other on a news aggregator when search on the food situation.

Let Them Eat Cake: Venezuela Celebrates Chavez’ Birthday With $100,000 Cake, While Citizens Starve

Venezuelan children express hunger in drawings

Does anybody else remember (probably not from living through it, I was only born in 83 myself, but has anybody else heard of it) that one of the events that kicked off the Iranian Revolution was a biiiig, glitzy party for the 2000th anniversary of Persepolis (or something) in a country that was largely in poverty?

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
It's hard to think how some of these outrageous cases don't cause... outrage. I mean, I'm sure they do, but I think that the conditions on the ground are much worse than they were in 2014 when we saw massive, nation-wide streets protests consistently over a period of about five months.

Earlier this week, National Assembly deputy Julio Borges said that he was concerned about the fact that, as far as he can tell, fewer and fewer people are turning out to opposition protests. He said that at the last one (which happened on Wednesday), he estimated that there were just about 4,000 people, but that two years ago opposition marches would draw tens of thousands of supporters.

There's definitely a disconnect between the level of discontent with the Maduro administration and the opposition's ability to mobilize people. All of the poll I've seen over the last month or so asking people if they'd vote to recall Maduro are in the 60-70% range saying "Yes". The Venegoon's frustration in this thread every time there's a protest that accomplishes absolutely nothing is a good sign of this disconnect. Every few weeks, the opposition says "We're marching to the CNE!", and then they make the protest's starting point really far away from the CNE headquarters in Caracas, march a couple of blocks and then turn around at the first sign of the National Guard. I really hope that Borges' observation is also hitting other opposition leaders, because all these little protests are doing is frustrating and discouraging people.

This is also the main reason why Leopoldo Lopez is in jail, and why he won't be released as long as Maduro is in power. Lopez is the one opposition leader who'd say "We're marching to the CNE because it's our constitutional right and we're not turning around whenever we see the National Guard, so I'll see you all at the CNE headquarters!" and actually try to get that kind of action going.

fnox
May 19, 2013



Chuck Boone posted:

It's hard to think how some of these outrageous cases don't cause... outrage. I mean, I'm sure they do, but I think that the conditions on the ground are much worse than they were in 2014 when we saw massive, nation-wide streets protests consistently over a period of about five months.

Earlier this week, National Assembly deputy Julio Borges said that he was concerned about the fact that, as far as he can tell, fewer and fewer people are turning out to opposition protests. He said that at the last one (which happened on Wednesday), he estimated that there were just about 4,000 people, but that two years ago opposition marches would draw tens of thousands of supporters.

There's definitely a disconnect between the level of discontent with the Maduro administration and the opposition's ability to mobilize people. All of the poll I've seen over the last month or so asking people if they'd vote to recall Maduro are in the 60-70% range saying "Yes". The Venegoon's frustration in this thread every time there's a protest that accomplishes absolutely nothing is a good sign of this disconnect. Every few weeks, the opposition says "We're marching to the CNE!", and then they make the protest's starting point really far away from the CNE headquarters in Caracas, march a couple of blocks and then turn around at the first sign of the National Guard. I really hope that Borges' observation is also hitting other opposition leaders, because all these little protests are doing is frustrating and discouraging people.

This is also the main reason why Leopoldo Lopez is in jail, and why he won't be released as long as Maduro is in power. Lopez is the one opposition leader who'd say "We're marching to the CNE because it's our constitutional right and we're not turning around whenever we see the National Guard, so I'll see you all at the CNE headquarters!" and actually try to get that kind of action going.

If they simply say "We're heading to Miraflores", people would go. Millions would go. But they're in cahoots with the government and know very well they don't care much for governing a failed state with an economy in shambles, they're not the kind of men to drive a nation to prosperity. As time goes by, people simply will lose faith in the political system that keeps lying to them, just waiting for the next messiah to come by, the next Chavez, to cause a stir, and then the cycle repeats itself again.

El Hefe
Oct 31, 2006

You coulda had a V8/
Instead of a tre-eight slug to yo' cranium/
I got six and I'm aimin' 'em/
Will I bust or keep you guessin'
There's no hope for this country that's for sure, we're never getting back the Venezuela I grew up in. I have a 14 year old cousin and she doesn't believe us when we tell her there was a time when we could go to the supermarket and find anything we wanted or that we didn't need an electric fence around our house, it's sad.

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon
An electric fence? Home invasions/burglaries are that bad?

Plastic_Gargoyle
Aug 3, 2007

Spacewolf posted:

Does anybody else remember (probably not from living through it, I was only born in 83 myself, but has anybody else heard of it) that one of the events that kicked off the Iranian Revolution was a biiiig, glitzy party for the 2000th anniversary of Persepolis (or something) in a country that was largely in poverty?

And Nicholas II celebrated the Romanov Tercentenary in 1913, same basic situation.

LeoMarr posted:

Why do socialist states turn into mafia states when socialism crumbles?

Turn into?

El Hefe
Oct 31, 2006

You coulda had a V8/
Instead of a tre-eight slug to yo' cranium/
I got six and I'm aimin' 'em/
Will I bust or keep you guessin'

Kurtofan posted:

An electric fence? Home invasions/burglaries are that bad?

Of course, I even caught some guys inside my house a few years ago thanks to my dogs, they were about 5 guys and they came in a brand new Toyota Fortuner, we were only able to catch one of them because he stayed with the truck which was under his name btw, we caught him, called the police and the minute they got there he pulled a huge stack of money and you could see the $$$ signs on the officer's eyes...

He got out of jail in a week and I even got a call from his lawyer threatening me to not push the case or there'd be consequences...

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

fnox posted:

If they simply say "We're heading to Miraflores", people would go. Millions would go. But they're in cahoots with the government and know very well they don't care much for governing a failed state with an economy in shambles, they're not the kind of men to drive a nation to prosperity. As time goes by, people simply will lose faith in the political system that keeps lying to them, just waiting for the next messiah to come by, the next Chavez, to cause a stir, and then the cycle repeats itself again.

Yes, this is exactly what I was trying to say. I also often feel like the opposition is purposely not taking action hoping that the overwhelming amount of frustration and despair will eventually turn into violence on the streets, and they'll be able to point to their almost non-existent leadership and say, "See? It wasn't our fault! We literally did nothing!".

In other news, Mario Silva is the host of a show called La Hojilla [The Razor Blade] that airs on state-owned TV. Last night, he went on a rally angry tirade against chavistas who were criticizing the government over that forced labour resolution that came out this week. He directed the tirade against someone he called "comrade Teo", who is apparently a chavista whose tweet triggered Silva. This is what he had to say about the resolution:

quote:

gently caress, how much longer are we going to fall for all the garbage the people from the right throw out?

Let me explain something to you, Teo. This isn't about [the government] grabbing people, as they've been saying, by ordering Minister of Defense Padrino Lopez to start recruiting people, grabbing them and putting them on a bus to plant seeds in a concentration camp. That's a lie. And any chavista that believes that poo poo and goes on Twitter and says "This is terrible! Maduro has gone mad"... how can this be obligatory? No. It's not like that. Try to educate yourself.

In the agricultural sector we have private business that, for example, make corn flour. And we have some public businesses that also make corn flour, and maybe they've got some production problems, or the machines aren't working, or they've got some kind of problem with what he called mixed business. What is this resolution about, then, so that you can get this poo poo out of your head about slavery and labour camps and Amnesty International?

What's this decree about? Simply, what it does is tell the private business that if it volunteers - listen carefully, volunteers - a worker from, for example, Polar wants to volunteer to go fix some of the machines in the public or mixed business to help them solve the problem with the machines to help them or even teach them how to improve production... then that worker is protected by the decree so that Polar, since this is on a volunteer basis, can't take away his wages. Do you understand me? They're not bringing in buses and taking them out to the companies, or out to public administration buildings to start recruiting people.
Silva is objectively wrong about this labour transfer resolution being "voluntary", since 1) the resolution does not once mention, either explicitly or implicitly, the word "voluntary", and 2) the resolution makes it implicit that this is indeed an obligatory system. Here are the relevant bits from the resolution (emphasis mine):

quote:

FIRST: A special obligatory, transitory and strategic regime is established for all work entities in the country, public, private, social or mixed, that contribute to the re-starting of production in the agricultural sector, which establishes mechanisms for the temporary insertion of workers in those entities which are the objects of special measures implemented to strengthen their production. To this effect, the constitutional and legal goals when it comes to security and the defense of the nation in its offensive against the economic war will act as fundamental guidelines with the objective of increasing and strengthening production in those work entities of social interest related to the agricultural sector.
(...)
THIRD: The private and public sector entities are obligated to comply with the strict demands of this administrative act, to the effect that they must provide the required workers with the goal of increasing the productivity of the work entity [that needs or asks for workers].

Also, I'm just seeing that the car of an opposition National Assembly deputy named Conrado Perez was torched by a pro-government mob at an opposition rally in Trujillos state today. Here are some pictures:

https://twitter.com/ConradoPerezL/status/759778263979864065

Kurtofan posted:

An electric fence? Home invasions/burglaries are that bad?
I lived in an apartment building which had a wall around it. This is back in the 90s so it didn't have an electrified fence, but it did have spikes at the top to make it hard to climb over.

I remember the progression of the wall around my grandmother's house. At the beginning, it was a wall (maybe 8-10 feet tall?). After a couple of break-ins, my grandpa broke beer bottles and used cement to make the top of the wall jagged. After a couple of break-ins, they got really thick barbed wire at the top. After a couple of break-ins, they ended up adding electric wire to the top of the wall, which adds another two feet or so to the height of the wall.

Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 22:44 on Jul 31, 2016

Horns of Hattin
Dec 21, 2011

El Hefe posted:

There's no hope for this country that's for sure, we're never getting back the Venezuela I grew up in. I have a 14 year old cousin and she doesn't believe us when we tell her there was a time when we could go to the supermarket and find anything we wanted or that we didn't need an electric fence around our house, it's sad.

Lol, thank you Maduro for achieving an incredible feat of making 30 year old socialism jokes relevant and relatable again.

This is Armenian Caracas Radio; our listeners asked us: “What is communism (the end goal of socialism)?”
We’re answering: “It's when everything will be available in stores. In other words, just like it was under Tsar Nicholas the Second before Hugo Chavez.”

This is Armenian Caracas Radio. Our listeners asked us: "When the final phase of socialism, namely full communism, is achieved, will there still be thefts and pilfering?"
We're answering: "No, because everything would have already been pilfered during socialism."

Ghost of Mussolini
Jun 26, 2011

Spacewolf posted:

Does anybody else remember (probably not from living through it, I was only born in 83 myself, but has anybody else heard of it) that one of the events that kicked off the Iranian Revolution was a biiiig, glitzy party for the 2000th anniversary of Persepolis (or something) in a country that was largely in poverty?
Indeed, but it was really something else in scale and expense. Also at that point the regime of the Shah still had international legitimacy and got all sorts of people to come validate the celebrations (which probably only added to the complaints of the then-fringe clerics and such).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2,500_year_celebration_of_the_Persian_Empire

El Hefe
Oct 31, 2006

You coulda had a V8/
Instead of a tre-eight slug to yo' cranium/
I got six and I'm aimin' 'em/
Will I bust or keep you guessin'
I mean there have been cases where a single PSUV mayor steals three hundred million dollars and people still haven't taken up arms, I think it's going to take something like literally no food in supermarkets before people actually realize what's going on and by then it might be too late, gently caress I already think it's too late.

El Hefe
Oct 31, 2006

You coulda had a V8/
Instead of a tre-eight slug to yo' cranium/
I got six and I'm aimin' 'em/
Will I bust or keep you guessin'
lmao they have this up at the CONATEL offices, they have no shame.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

Subtle.

cheesetriangles
Jan 5, 2011





So is there any chance they say gently caress it and ask the US for aid and us navy ships start hauling millions of tons of food into the harbor in like 2 days time.

El Hefe
Oct 31, 2006

You coulda had a V8/
Instead of a tre-eight slug to yo' cranium/
I got six and I'm aimin' 'em/
Will I bust or keep you guessin'

cheesetriangles posted:

So is there any chance they say gently caress it and ask the US for aid and us navy ships start hauling millions of tons of food into the harbor in like 2 days time.

No because they'd be explicitly admitting their failure if they did that, they'd rather millions of people to die before asking the U.S for help.

gobbagool
Feb 5, 2016

by R. Guyovich
Doctor Rope

El Hefe posted:

No because they'd be explicitly admitting their failure if they did that, they'd rather millions of people to die before asking the U.S for help.

Maybe Cuba can ship them millions of tons of....oh right, never mind

P-Mack
Nov 10, 2007

What exactly does the "economic war" consist of anyway? Like I know it's bullshit, but what is the alleged method by which the CIA is keeping flour out of the supermarket?

It's not like the US doesn't use economic sanctions all the time, so it's strange that they're somehow doing it secretly in Venezuela.

Feinne
Oct 9, 2007

When you fall, get right back up again.

P-Mack posted:

What exactly does the "economic war" consist of anyway? Like I know it's bullshit, but what is the alleged method by which the CIA is keeping flour out of the supermarket?

It's not like the US doesn't use economic sanctions all the time, so it's strange that they're somehow doing it secretly in Venezuela.

The CIA are imperialist sorcerers who use the black magic of their capitalist devil to vex the goodly folk of Venezuela. I mean obviously you can't expect them to be able to defeat devil magic so totally not Maduro's fault.

Meanwhile in the real world the CIA's been riding high for like a decade on openly blowing people up with murder robots, which while effective is hardly subtle.

Feinne fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Aug 1, 2016

El Hefe
Oct 31, 2006

You coulda had a V8/
Instead of a tre-eight slug to yo' cranium/
I got six and I'm aimin' 'em/
Will I bust or keep you guessin'
Maduro et al, really believe the CIA infected Chavez with cancer, that's the kind of people we are dealing with here.

fnox
May 19, 2013



P-Mack posted:

What exactly does the "economic war" consist of anyway? Like I know it's bullshit, but what is the alleged method by which the CIA is keeping flour out of the supermarket?

It's not like the US doesn't use economic sanctions all the time, so it's strange that they're somehow doing it secretly in Venezuela.

The US has never embargoed Venezuela, nor to my knowledge has used economic sanctions. The US has, so far, done a weapons embargo on the country which has gone fairly unpublicized (It ultimately just means that they gotta buy weapons from China and Russia instead), and economic sanctions directly to government officials, seizing whichever assets they may have in the US, and revoking tourist visas to members of their respective extended families. The US has neither refused to buy oil from Venezuela, nor has Venezuela stopped their supply of oil to the US other than during the oil industry strikes of 2001-2002 despite Chavez and Maduro claiming otherwise, in fact the US, for the longest time, had a trade deficit with Venezuela. The US embassy in Caracas is fully operational, they have only recently stopped accepting applications for tourists visas, and everything the US has done relative to Venezuela has fallen in line with the official policy of both the Bush and Obama administrations' insistence on just ignoring Chavez and Maduro's rhetoric.

In contrast, Venezuela closed its embassy in the US in 2008, they have not reestablished it since. Chavez called Bush a drunkard, a donkey, a coward, a mass murderer, a sick man, a pendejo, and the Devil itself, both him and Maduro use anti-imperialist rhetoric basically on every speech and love to remind the Venezuelan people that the US is responsible for everything that's happening to them. Chavez was well known for once screaming "go gently caress yourselves you loving yankees" in national TV.

As for what the term economic war actually means, we don't know. That's the point, it's intentionally nebulous, but generally it seems to claim that inflation is caused by US supported businessmen speculating on prices to destroy confidence in Maduro's government, that shortages are caused by US backed businessmen (again) hoarding massive stocks of products in warehouses and letting them rot, and that the recent crash of the oil prices was caused by the US in order to destroy the national economy. It's a relatively new addition to Chavista vocabulary, and in my opinion it's perhaps one of the least effective phrases they've ever tried to push.

Also Maduro claims that the CIA infected Chavez with cancer using cancer rays. There is an actual documentary attempting to explain this.

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich
Just saw the news from BBC that the next step in the recall process is proceeding forward. What's the skinny? Hard to find english language breaking news sources.

Entirety of the BBC alert: "Venezuela's national election council approves first step in opposition campaign to recall President Maduro"

El Hefe
Oct 31, 2006

You coulda had a V8/
Instead of a tre-eight slug to yo' cranium/
I got six and I'm aimin' 'em/
Will I bust or keep you guessin'
The MUD delivered the signatures for the 1% back in May 2nd, it took the CNE three months to validate them...

There isn't going to be a referendum this year.

Spazzle
Jul 5, 2003

There isn't going to be a referendum. Venezuela isn't a country that has laws or any kind of democratic state. It merely pretends there is for political convenience.

Source, every post in this thread not by Jimmy.

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich
If there was this much trouble for a 1% threshold, one can only imagine the chaos when the threshold is 20%.

I dont know
Aug 9, 2003

That Guy here...

Spazzle posted:

There isn't going to be a referendum.

There may be once the new election deadline passes and power instead passes to the vice president. It would allow the PSUV to get rid of an unpopular Maduro without actually giving up any power.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

P-Mack posted:

What exactly does the "economic war" consist of anyway? Like I know it's bullshit, but what is the alleged method by which the CIA is keeping flour out of the supermarket?

It's not like the US doesn't use economic sanctions all the time, so it's strange that they're somehow doing it secretly in Venezuela.

As others have pointed out, the nebulous mastermind of the "economic war" is the CIA/DEA/Imperialism/capitalism/the United States. For all my years following Venezuelan politics I've never heard anyone provide a coherent, logical explanation of what the economic war is, so a really good way to trip up a PSUV supporter is to ask them, "Describe exactly what the economic war is". Chances are, if you ask ten people you'll get ten different answers.

I think that the most coherent answer you're likely to get is that the "economic war" is any activity that is designed with the purpose of destabilizing the economy for the purposes of harming the Maduro regime. For example, whenever Polar (a private company) says, "We're shutting down a production line because we don't have money to import raw materials", that's the economic war. The government will tell you that Polar totally has money, but they're simply refusing to import raw materials in order to hurt the economy.

You'll often see Maduro or some other big shot on TV saying "last night, we stopped a bus and it was full of people carrying tons of corn flour to the interior for hoarding!" or something outrageous like that. I know first hand of people who've been arrested by the National Guard because the bus they were in got pulled over, and they had a couple of packs of diapers to take home to their little town deep in the country because they haven't seen diapers there in months. That's the economic war too, the PSUV would say - hoarding, smuggling products across state borders, etc.

In short: the "economic war" is a catch-all phrase that means "anyone doing anything we don't like". It's sort of like the running joke in the US about how we have to go to war with X country or bomb X place because "they're terrorists".

Arkane posted:

Just saw the news from BBC that the next step in the recall process is proceeding forward. What's the skinny? Hard to find english language breaking news sources.

Entirety of the BBC alert: "Venezuela's national election council approves first step in opposition campaign to recall President Maduro"

That's exactly what happened. The CNE said "the opposition successfully completed step one". The problem is that we knew that this was true back on May 2, and that the CNE could have announced the date for the second step today but it didn't.

I just got home so I haven't had a chance to take a super close look at the news, but I believe that what the CNE did today was provide an overview of all of the signatures that the opposition collected in May: how many, from where, how many were illegible, how many didn't have proper fingerprints, how many people had to swipe more than once to log in to the machines, etc.

The CNE also said that the opposition now has to file more paperwork in order to request for the second step to start. It has 48 hours to file that paperwork. Once the paperwork is filed, the CNE will take 30 days to verify the paperwork, and then and only then will it announce the date of the second step of the process. In other words, as we've known since this whole thing started, the recall isn't happening this year.

This is what I think the timeline looks like going forward (under the best possible circumstances with no surprises):
  • Opposition hands in paperwork tomorrow.
  • CNE takes one month to inspect it. On September 1, it announces the date of the second step: "October 1 to October 31. You have to wait til October 31 to hand it all in, just like in the first step".
  • On October 31, the CNE declares the second step "closed". It begins the verification process.
  • Verification process ends on November 1.
  • On November 15, the CNE announces the results of the verification process: "The opposition has met the 20% requirement. It now has 48 hours to file paperwork for the referendum to begin. It will take us one month to verify this paperwork, as was the case during the first step".
  • Opposition hands in paperwork on November 16.
  • CNE takes one month to inspect it. On December 26, it announces the date of the referendum: "January 26. We need a month to prepare".
  • January 26 is after January 10, so the PSUV wins.

As has been pointed out before, the point of this nonsense isn't to stop the referendum altogether: it's to delay it until at least January 10, 2017, because as I don't know said, if the referendum happens after January 10 then the VP becomes president, the PSUV remains in power until 2019, and all these criminals get to keep lining their pockets until at least then.

Keep in mind also that the recall referendum is a 100% legitimate process that is set out in the constitution.

Arkane posted:

If there was this much trouble for a 1% threshold, one can only imagine the chaos when the threshold is 20%.
No kidding. One of the possibilities is that the opposition will get just one day to collect the signatures, even though they got a whole month to collect 1%. Another possibility is that they will have to collect signatures from 20% of voters per state (as was the case during the first step), which makes absolutely no sense outside of "how can we make this more difficult for them", and actually stands in contradiction to the CNE's own rules on how to do this.

The Lone Badger
Sep 24, 2007

You've already had a coup. A referendum is meaningless.

twerking on the railroad
Jun 23, 2007

Get on my level
Thing I haven't seen discussed so much in this thread that I'm curious about: What's the relationship between Trinidad and Venezuela? I realize Trinidad is much smaller, but supposing wikipedia is accurate they have a very high GDP per capita (something like trailing only US and Canada in North America/the Caribbean). And while I've heard plenty about Colombia dealing with lots of people coming over from Venezuela, I haven't heard much about Trinidad and Venezuela. If you search google you just find something from a couple months ago about the Venezuelan government buying $50 million worth of food from T&T. Rather little for a country that's just off the shore. Am I just not seeing anything because Trinidad is too small to take in many refugees?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

fnox
May 19, 2013



Skeesix posted:

Thing I haven't seen discussed so much in this thread that I'm curious about : What's the relationship between Trinidad and Venezuela? I realize Trinidad is much smaller, but supposing wikipedia is accurate they have a very high GDP per capita (something like trailing only US and Canada in North America/the Caribbean). And while I've heard plenty about Colombia dealing with lots of people coming over from Venezuela, I haven't heard much about Trinidad and Venezuela. If you search google you just find something from a couple months ago about the Venezuelan government buying $50 million worth of food from T&T. Rather little for a country that's just off the shore. Am I just not seeing anything because Trinidad is too small to take in many refugees?

Trinidad and Venezuela have an amicable relationship, as far as I'm aware of they're part of the Petrocaribe treaty which means they're getting Venezuelan oil for the cheap in order to pretend to be Venezuela's friend. The language is a significant barrier for most Venezuelans, making places like Colombia, Panama, Dominican Republic and even Miami to an extent a lot more attractive as it is much easier to land a decent job if you speak the local language. I had family who lived and worked in Trinidad, and they eventually left it because they felt like complete outsiders and they never quite integrated into society. Amazingly enough, they left Trinidad in order to live in loving Japan, so I don't know if there was any merit to that claim, but I definitely have heard of more Trinidadian immigrants in Venezuela than Venezuelans in Trinidad.

As a general rule, Venezuelans emigrate to the US as a best case scenario, but that implies getting a green card which isn't easy. Most folk who have European ancestry of some sort and can get an European passport have moved to Spain, Portugal or Italy, mostly Spain (I went to Sweden because I kind of wanted to go all in and head to the most stable place possible if I was going to emigrate, but it is far from being a popular destination for Venezuelans), those who aren't so lucky end up mostly moving within Latin America, the Mercosur treaty makes immigration relatively painless for Venezuelans who want to move to Chile, Peru, Argentina or Brazil. Folk who end up going to Caribbean countries tend to do so because either they love living on an island or they have work and business there.

Ironically enough, Venezuela was once a popular destination for migrants coming from Colombia, Italy, Spain and Portugal. We used to have a problem with illegal Colombian immigrants, now the situation has reversed.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply