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Ardennes posted:I think other people would notice that many people gone. does alcoholism kill Russians before they can make it to the bad covid demographic?
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Jun 4, 2020 18:16
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Ardennes posted:I think other people would notice that many people gone. Russia: 1.2%. Estonia: 3.8% Latvia: 2.3% Lithuania: 4.2% Belarus: 0.6% Ukraine: 2.9% According to official numbers Russians aren't dying like Ukrainians and Latvians, they're dying significantly less. Sure, to get to 10x you need to assume some major cooking in the other former USSR states, but if you assume Estonia and Lithuania are about right Russia is undercounting by a factor three. If they're undercounting by a factor two, then Russia is by a factor six. A Buttery Pastry has issued a correction as of 18:20 on Jun 4, 2020 |
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Jun 4, 2020 18:18
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everything is gonna be ok  
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Jun 4, 2020 18:28
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Facebook Aunt posted:It depends. A double ply cotton mask can be superior to surgical masks if it is high threadcount cotton. Name/post combo. The actual good advice is "don't worry about it, just have at least two layers". (1) The study quoted there is nonsense in any context other than the one it was designed for - using homemade masks in hospital settings. If you're concerned about the level of filtration you need to distinguish between outbound and inbound particles, and also to consider fit, and what your use case is and who you're protecting and none of this is applicable for homemade masks in normal life. You're not aiming for filtration you're aiming for reducing the range you can infect others from. Masks do not work for protecting you. (2) It's a lot more important they're comfortable and do not impede you. (3) (1) I'm pretty sure the best home trick to check if you're using the right kind of fabric is to blow on it and see if it catches the air or just passes through. You want it to stop air somewhat, but not enough for it to gather humidity inside the mask or to cause any difficulty breathing. (2) You need to have a mask fit-tested and have it be the right kind of mask for protecting you and if you get the right kind of mask you're just contributing to the massive shortage of gear that means the healthcare personnel are protected worse, have a higher risk of spreading the disease and you've just made things worse for everyone including yourself. (3) Because that means you keep wearing them and they slow down the air from coughing, sneezing or aggressively talking.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:28
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endlessmonotony posted:Name/post combo. You're wrong about non fit tested masks protecting you, go look into that study from the first sars which included influenza like illnesses. You're just repeating the propaganda you bought 3 months ago You can also just look at Japan as evidence that masks + minimizing talking kept outbreaks from happening on their packed transit system with recirculating air
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Jun 4, 2020 18:30
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mastershakeman posted:You're wrong about non fit tested masks protecting you, go look into that study from the first sars which included influenza like illnesses. You're just repeating the propaganda you bought 3 months ago What are you talking about, they included citations and everything.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:33
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The CDC told everyone in the US that masks don't work to cover-up the fact that we had none and could produce none, with the main objective of previnting embarrassment for donald trump.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:34
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mastershakeman posted:You're wrong about non fit tested masks protecting you, go look into that study from the first sars which included influenza like illnesses. You're just repeating the propaganda you bought 3 months ago  Av/post combo as always, Master Shake. Masks do not protect YOU, they protect OTHERS. So everyone wearing a mask works really rather well for preventing infections. Also the gently caress does that recirculating air comment have to do with anything, filtering recirculated air isn't exactly a forgotten science.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:35
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Flesh Forge posted:everything is gonna be ok testing positive rate is still low. but wave 2 looks to be incoming
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Jun 4, 2020 18:35
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endlessmonotony posted:
Lol at insisting masks don't help you while being unaware of the bus, restaurant, and telemarketing office studies
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Jun 4, 2020 18:40
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Facebook Aunt posted:It depends. A double ply cotton mask can be superior to surgical masks if it is high threadcount cotton. Good info, I can see quite a few bright points so I'll switch to the surgical for now.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:45
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Bip Roberts posted:does alcoholism kill Russians before they can make it to the bad covid demographic? Slavs seem impervious to alcoholism's physical effects and only die from falling out of helicopters while drunk and the like.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:49
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Flunky posted:a cop's knee on your neck is a hell of a comorbidity he dies WITH a knee on his neck, not OF a knee on his neck
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Jun 4, 2020 18:50
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Samurai Sanders posted:Back in the before time, I was taking trumpet lessons at a music school. For the last 2 months though It's been closed and I've been taking lessons under the with same teacher just using Zoom and paying under the table. It's apparently open back up again in June, and I'm trying to decide whether to continue the current arrangement or whether to go back. The room we have the lessons in is pretty small and though there's only two of us in there, others will have sat in the seat that I'm sitting on, and also because of the nature of the trumpet, there's some amount of fluid and spittle flying around at some points. I get that online lessons are a lovely substitute for real-time, real-space interaction, but I wouldn't be going anywhere near a music school under these conditions. The only things of any real value they have to offer are personal relationships with teachers, and a network of gigging connections.* You've already got the first, and the gig world is dead as poo poo at the moment. Everything else is just practice, and nobody else can do that for you. You can practice as much as you drat want under these conditions. Unless you're at a point in your development where you need tons of immediate real-time feedback from a teacher to fix/build something really specific, I vote for not worth it. There's always another etude out there to drill. *Source: 8 years of conservatory inculcation, only 2 of which were worth a gently caress.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:51
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twoday posted:One interesting factor that isn't taken into consideration much is humidity. The more humid a place is, the less chance there is that the virus will survive there. New York and Northern Italy are for instance very humid, but only in the summer, which could explain why numbers are relatively low there now. This plays into the seasonality which you mentioned. Hmm, yeah that could be a thing. In BC we've been getting smug about how well we've done, but our high density urban areas are on the southern coast and a big island. It's not just humid, it's damp. And even in winter it's hardly ever cold enough to freeze and crush the humidity with cold. It's a rainforest zone. Though isn't Brazil getting hammered? Litterally the amazon rain forest? Oh, I guess it's a large country with several climate zones. https://www.brazil-travel-guide.com/Brazil-Map-Weather.html  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Brazil  The dark purple zones are >461 cases per million. Even in the dry season I imagine the loving amazon rainforest is pretty humid, and it's one of the worst zones. Or maybe they're just doing more testing in that state??? I dunno enough about brazil to even guess. 
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Jun 4, 2020 18:58
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endlessmonotony posted:Masks do not protect YOU, they protect OTHERS. So everyone wearing a mask works really rather well for preventing infections. weird, i thought hospitals wanted masks for doctors and nurses and not the patients
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Jun 4, 2020 19:04
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A Buttery Pastry posted:You've brought up this talking point before, and that's exactly it! The CFR of the former USSR looks like this: Yeah "talking point," great job, what a gotcha. My point was regards to why Russia was more like Eastern Europe than Western Europe not that there wasn't an under-count going on. I said that multiple times, Eastern Europe is still in a relatively tight band when you consider than Western Europe was pushing more than a 10% death rate. The explaination is TB vaccination. Ultimately, I would expect Ukrainian/Russian numbers to be fairly similar. I would expect real Russian deaths to be closer to 15-20k, more heavily weighted toward Moscow/St.Petersburg because of their density and metro systems. One thing to remember is if you believe it or not, Russia has been testing than Ukraine which has pushed their relative death rate downward versus the Ukrainians, but Russia is still under-reporting by a higher amount. If you want a truer picture, it would make more sense to directly compare Kiev/St.Petersburg excess deaths since both are cities of a similar size and rail networks and similar vaccination regimes. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 19:15 on Jun 4, 2020 |
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Jun 4, 2020 19:04
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Flesh Forge posted:everything is gonna be ok lmao Texas
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Jun 4, 2020 19:05
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euphronius posted:lmao Texas hook em
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Jun 4, 2020 19:08
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oh yeah i real sick
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Jun 4, 2020 19:17
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Flesh Forge posted:everything is gonna be ok what site is this?
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Jun 4, 2020 19:19
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i feel puffy
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Jun 4, 2020 19:25
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Ardennes posted:Yeah "talking point," great job. My point was regards to why Russia was more like Eastern Europe than Western Europe not that there wasn't an under-count going on. I said that multiple times, Eastern Europe is sitll in a relatively tight band when you consider than Western Europe was pushing more than a 10% death rate. The explaination is TB vaccination. Also, yeah, talking point. You claim Eastern Europe is a relatively tight band, when it ranges from like 0.6% in Belarus to 13.3% in Hungary. That's a factor 22 difference, and even within the former USSR there's still a factor 7 difference between high and low. The latter is exactly the same as you see in Western Europe, where France is at 19.1% CFR and Luxembourg at 2.7%.
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Jun 4, 2020 19:28
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The masks aren't perfect protection, but that's not the point, nothing is perfect protection. Anything that reduces/filters this thing makes it less likely to spread and slows it down. It's why we're sanitizing the gently caress out of everything even though surface contact is a low-likelihood transmission vector. Every bit helps, it all adds up.
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Jun 4, 2020 19:29
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Tiny Bug Child posted:weird, i thought hospitals wanted masks for doctors and nurses and not the patients Now, I am entirely aware that this is just an attempt to land a weak lovely burn and not a post with effort put into it. But no. Hospital masks meant to prevent infections of the staff are fit tested, they're masks suited for that use (and we still have a massive shortage of them). They are also a real pain in the rear end to wear properly, they are known to cause problems just from wearing them (such as infections) - and oh, they're uncomfortable as all hell and there's zero way you're getting the general public to wear them, much less wear them right. Meanwhile surgical masks are, indeed, meant to keep the patient safe from the healthcare staff more than anything, because healthcare staff has constant exposure to infected patients and the virus will spread before it can be reliably detected. They will reduce the risk somewhat but not nearly enough which is exactly why we need the healthcare staff to have access to the better class of masks (usually a type of N95) so they can also treat known infected patients with less risk of getting infected. Masks do not eliminate your chance of getting infected, and the efficiency rates of the masks that are comfortable enough to wear daily are, even in the best cases, laughably inadequate to reliably stop you from getting infected by an infected person in your danger zone. They do work a lot better at reducing the range infectious people can infect others, but even that only slows down the spread - which is indeed the point. By having everyone wear the masks, you slow down the spread of the virus and it'll eventually die out from not getting to new hosts fast enough. This requires everyone to cooperate in wearing masks, which means it would be useful if we had a centralized authority issuing rules for the common good with the capability of punishing people who put others at risk. Now you can imply I do not know about this study and that study - for maximum effect, do not link them and only vaguely reference them so you can go "no not that study" once one of them is addressed - but that's just a gish gallop. Masks you can reasonably wear in your daily life do not have the efficiency to reliably protect you so you need to minimize your exposure to potentially dangerous situations. In light of this, a mask that you can comfortably wear for extended periods without loving with it will serve you a lot better than a mask capable of reliably protecting you. Now you could probably figure out relative efficiencies by simulating airflow from events such as speaking, coughing and sneezing and by the time you're done with that work you can add it to the constant stream of not really meaningful info literally everything is pushing out right now. The light test, at any rate, isn't a great test since the fabrics behave differently depending on how much tension they're under and just because it lets light through doesn't mean the same is true for airflow and sometimes the airflow through the mask plays in how fast the air will escape from the sides of the mask and if you're still reading congratulations but this stopped being meaningful about two paragraphs ago. Salt Fish posted:What are you talking about, they included citations and everything. Those are footnotes you illiterate postmonger.
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Jun 4, 2020 19:31
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endlessmonotony posted:Those are footnotes you illiterate postmonger. bro you mad
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Jun 4, 2020 19:37
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euphronius posted:lmao Texas don’t mess with texas 
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Jun 4, 2020 19:38
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If I'm wearing the most garbage tier mask possible that doesn't even fit slightly well and has no seal around my nose or whatever and I'm taking my garbage to the curb and there's some guy talking loud 15 feet away from me and he's an asymptomatic carrier and a drop of spit flies out of his mouth and the drop of spit doesn't go in my mouth but instead lands on the mask and then I go inside and wash the mask and my hands I'm much less likely to get Covid than if that spit drop went in my mouth. People that come around with this "LOL moron if you're wearing anything less than a full X248 fully sealed apparatus with carbon cyclotronic reverse filtering it's doing LITERALLY NOTHING" can gently caress off.
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Jun 4, 2020 19:45
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Wearing goggles in public will keep me safe.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:01
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a girl who assisted me a week ago was diagnosed with Covid yesterday
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Jun 4, 2020 20:04
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err posted:what site is this? the site name is in the bottom of the image but here is clickable text http://91-divoc.com/ http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ that specific graph I cropped: http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-vis...Colorado#states
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Jun 4, 2020 20:09
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A Buttery Pastry posted:My point is that is that you can't compare the differences in absolute terms, when the average rate is much lower. 1.2% to 4.2% is not the same as 11.2% to 14.2%. You are using outliers to bring noise into the debate, Poland has less deaths per million than Russia (also Hungary has 1/4th the testing per million than Russia as well). The countries you were showing ranged from 2-3% and most of Eastern Europe and Japan follows a relatively similar pattern. You think this is just a political thing rather than something that is just showing up in the data. Btw, I was comparing differences proportionally, and proportionally it would make sense if Ukraine and Russia would say similar death rates per cases (looking at the various similarities of the two countries) . Russia has been testing more, which usually lowers relative rates, but they also are under-counting deaths at the same time. If Ukraine tested more and better counting was done in Russia, the death rates would be probably be also relatively similar. It also makes sense St. Petersburg, the second largest city in Russia with a well developed metro network, would see high relatively excess deaths but the problem is when you apply it nation-wide. That said, I wouldn't be that surprised if Moscow had considerable excess deaths. quote:The city of Moscow has suddenly doubled its coronavirus death toll from last month. https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...-of-undercounti Take that as you will. It very well may be that St.Petersburg has a relatively high number of deaths because of its size and integration but unlike Moscow never fixed their statisitics and how it is clear this has been the result. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 20:21 on Jun 4, 2020 |
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Jun 4, 2020 20:15
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endlessmonotony posted:Now, I am entirely aware that this is just an attempt to land a weak lovely burn and not a post with effort put into it. none of this means "masks don't protect you" like you originally said. that along with the "people are too stupid to wear the good masks correctly" stuff is just regurgitation of the propaganda the ruling class put out in order to try to mitigate the equipment shortages caused by their lovely policies endlessmonotony posted:Masks you can reasonably wear in your daily life do not have the efficiency to reliably protect you so you need to minimize your exposure to potentially dangerous situations. In light of this, a mask that you can comfortably wear for extended periods without loving with it will serve you a lot better than a mask capable of reliably protecting you ineffective masks aren't the only ones you can "reasonably wear". i have a P99 respirator i wear to the grocery store; it's not hard to wear it properly and it's easy to do a positive pressure check to make sure you've got a seal. it's certainly not comfortable but i can wear it for hours. you know there are jobs where people have to wear that poo poo all day every day right
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Jun 4, 2020 20:15
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endlessmonotony posted:Now, I am entirely aware that this is just an attempt to land a weak lovely burn and not a post with effort put into it. There's reliably protect and reliably protect. If a clean, dry well fitting cloth mask prevented, say, 20% of transmissions that's not foolproof but it's also fantastic. I mean, it's lousy if your use case is trying to protect yourself in a plague ward where the virus gets dozens of shots at you every day, but quite good if your highest risk activity is going to walmart for an hour or riding public transit to work. And if your choice is between having 20% protection and having 0% protection it's a no brainer. There's also the synergy of doing several imperfect things. To pull some numbers from my rear end suppose: Physical distancing when possible prevented 50% of transmissions Impeccable hand hygiene prevented 50% of transmissions Masks prevented 50% of transmissions Not touching your loving face prevented 50% of transmissions Then doing all four would prevent 93.7% of transmissions. (Yeah all those things aren't 50% effective, but it makes the math easy.) Masks are definitely better at protecting others from you than protecting you from others, but that isn't the same as saying they provide you no protection at all. Suppose a mask offers a mere 2% protection. When you play an MMO everybody is trying to stack equipment that gives even a 2% advantage, because a bunch of 2%s add up, and because over the course of thousands of fights 2% is a non-negligible number. If you fill your mask slot with a mask that offers 2% protection you're still better off than if you left that slot empty.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:15
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https://twitter.com/benyc/status/1268624370425044996?s=19
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Jun 4, 2020 20:28
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Facebook Aunt posted:There's reliably protect and reliably protect. If a clean, dry well fitting cloth mask prevented, say, 20% of transmissions that's not foolproof but it's also fantastic. I mean, it's lousy if your use case is trying to protect yourself in a plague ward where the virus gets dozens of shots at you every day, but quite good if your highest risk activity is going to walmart for an hour or riding public transit to work. And if your choice is between having 20% protection and having 0% protection it's a no brainer. That's not incorrect. The effect is negligible on individual scale but once magnified by everyone doing it it does slow the virus down enough to be meaningful. Of course, it pales compared to the effect on others, to the degree where just you wearing the mask is a rounding error. Which does bring out the other side of the problem. Once we're magnifying the effects to this degree, we do need to consider availability (so, rule out N95 and equivalents), but also lesser factors such as the (rare) negative side effects from mask wearing, which can be mitigated by choosing your mask right (trapping too much moisture being the #1 problem) and even the effects of comfort on both how often and reliably the mask is worn, how often it's taken off, and even the effects of paying attention to not touching your face reducing the amount of attention you pay to keeping track which surfaces might be infected, when to disinfect your hands and keeping your distance from others. How do these effects balance out against the effect of the mask protecting you, and how do different mask types compare? (Having an answer is a pretty serious human rights violation.) The best mask is the one that's comfortable enough you wear it.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:31
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NYC construction workers are mandated to wear a mask at all times as we head into notoriously hot NYC summers. Also there's a six person limit on hoists. LMAO
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Jun 4, 2020 20:33
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Ardennes posted:The countries you were showing ranged from 2-3% and most of Eastern Europe and Japan follows a relatively similar pattern. Ardennes posted:You think this is just a political thing rather than something that is just showing up in the data.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:42
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Billings is the largest city in the U.S. state of Montana, with a population estimated at 109,577 as of 2019
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Jun 4, 2020 20:46
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Which countries are these? Take out the highest and the lowest, and it's still 1.2%-3.8%, a far wider range than 2-3%. The numbers you are using are old or limited. Estonia's death rate is 3.65%. Ukraine is 2.9%. Georgia is 1.62%. Armenia is 1.56%. (That said you can say Caucasian countries are more rural, fine but still.) We are talking about a relatively limited range. Also, a country like Hungary can be explained by the fact that Budapest is such proportionally such a larger portion of the Hungarian population. ----------------------------- As far as Russia cooking its books, that isn't controversial, I always assumed as much. The entire issue is assuming that Russia (and only Russia in Eastern Europe) had Western death rates. Also, even in Russia itself, different cities are adopting different criteria since there is a pretty stark divergence in criteria between Moscow and St. Petersburg. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 21:16 on Jun 4, 2020 |
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Jun 4, 2020 20:58
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