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Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

EVA BRAUN BLOWJOBS posted:

hello fellow stocks guy i am a stocks guy too

Went long $NLNK today.

oh heck yes. NLNK is on my Good List.
I was Long NLNK back on the initial pullback from the initial crazy runup. enter 9, exit 11.50, boom perfect. have it on my watch list ever since. the recent dumpage has me wanting to get up in that B but got other stuff to close out first. please stay down there a little longer :pray:

https://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=341&t=NLNK

has got that huge "Insider" (10%+ Owner) buy @ 10.25 for like $8 MM which is definitley my poo poo

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proctorbot
Jan 27, 2005
BUT CAN IT FEEL??!?!
Looking forward to a good night's sleep tonight, will be waking up tomorrow ready to resume becoming rich from stocks

EBB
Feb 15, 2005

NLNK is interesting because I worked on one of their drugs as part of a partnership. Clinically it wasn't great so they killed it, but I've kept an eye on it. I'm trying to stick with pharma/biotech since that's what I know and I can interpret trial readouts well. Ever interested in what that biotech you're looking at is doing? Make sure to check out clinicaltrials.gov. I'm in 1000 @ 6.75.

Watching INCY too but ehh didn't do much after earnings reports before market open today. Was hoping to see something more about epacadostat. NLNK reports on March 1.

amotea
Mar 23, 2008
Grimey Drawer

Jack Daniels posted:

oh heck yes. NLNK is on my Good List.
I was Long NLNK back on the initial pullback from the initial crazy runup. enter 9, exit 11.50, boom perfect. have it on my watch list ever since. the recent dumpage has me wanting to get up in that B but got other stuff to close out first. please stay down there a little longer :pray:
So all your plays are about mean-reversion, but against the trend? Brave man. I figured most people do the pullback thing with the trend.

Edit: this site might also be up your guys' alley: https://www.chartmill.com/findscreens.php?o=11954

Kind of like finviz but more flexible imo.

Tokyo Sex Whale
Oct 9, 2012

"My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"

Agronox posted:

This is just me eyeballing it, I don’t know any idiosyncrasies of JNK or anything.

You’re essentially buying a very cheap call option. You’re out roughly $3,945, protected to any downside, but if JNK stays at 36 you’ve made basically nothing. And that’s assuming distributions don’t go down, which can happen.

2 year Treasurys currently yield roughly 2.2%. If you put that 3,945 there you’d come out ahead by roughly $150, guaranteed.

So to beat Treasurys you either need JNK’s distributions to increase significantly or the price of the ETF to rise by over 1.50. If you take a look at the chart, you’ll see that that is very unlikely, but not impossible.

So chances are you’re putting money out there to earn less than the risk free rate.

It’s “free” money, but not enough.

(Note, my figures are rounded, I’m not taking margin into consideration, which could make a difference, and I may have hosed up anyway, so correct me if I did.)

Thinking about this further: I went at this the wrong way and think the real upside is in increasing coupon payments not share appreciation. I’ve got 23 monthly payments coming before put expiration and no downside risk to NAV. If my average monthly payment over the next 2 years is $0.23 I come out ahead vs treasuries. Unless I’ve got my math wrong that implies junk interest rates averaging about 7.5% over the next two years. That seems unlikely to me but not that unlikely (junk spread is still pretty tight and has room to move and treasury yields are rising).

Downside risk: I’m out $161 vs just sticking it in treasuries. Where it could go really pear-shaped would I think be idiosyncratic to JNK and depends on how they roll their portfolio. If interest rates really spike hard at some point and their holdings are trading at a very large discount to par it’s possible NAV declines while their monthly payments also shrink because they’re selling $86 bonds to buy $98 bonds or something so even with a higher per-issue coupon they don’t have as many issues under management.

That sort of depends on how the etf works through a liquidity crisis—if they do programmatic selling I’m hosed, if they hold through a spike and wait for things to calm down should be ok. hosed only means out a max of the cost of the puts. So max loss of about 8.7% if everything goes wrong today and that’s if 2008 happens again. Not a tremendous amount of upside either but basically a bet on junk interest rates rising relatively steadily to ~9% in two years. In most likely scenarios I think it ends up with a small gain. Probably a hard trade to reproduce because the options are so lightly traded that far out.

jvick
Jun 24, 2008

WE ARE
PENN STATE
So the $CTL earnings came out about as good as I could have expected. Position is up 10%, and having just started dabbling in options, this is encouraging. Still down big on $USO options though.


$20 Call: +30.6%
$16 Call: +65.4%

EBB
Feb 15, 2005

$NLNK up 8% today :toot:

hostile apostle
Aug 29, 2006
:stadia::stadia::stadia::stadia::stadia:
Stadia didn't outlive SA but it did outlive Lowtax - Happy Birthday Stadia! #ad
:stadia::stadia::stadia::stadia::stadia:
MU broke 44, all in

Sexual Lorax
Mar 17, 2004

HERE'S TO FUCKING


Fun Shoe
In MSFT MAR 16 2018 95.0 CALL @ 1.35 with the intent of getting out today. I'm not too excited about holding anything over the weekend. If Microsoft has another day like yesterday, these could go In The Money. I'd be OK with that. :wotwot:

Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

amotea posted:

So all your plays are about mean-reversion, but against the trend? Brave man. I figured most people do the pullback thing with the trend.


you got it :rms:

proctorbot
Jan 27, 2005
BUT CAN IT FEEL??!?!
hahaha $SHAK is getting crushed. Don't think it's going to recover, not looking like much of a growth stock. I thought beating earnings would give a lil bump i could collect then move on. I was totally wrong.

I think I'll swallow my pride, take my losses and move into something else. $KHC looking undervalued, maybe I should increase my position in that.

Tokyo Sex Whale
Oct 9, 2012

"My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"
Commerce department is recommending massive steel and aluminum tariffs. The domestic producers are all way up on the news but it doesn't look like it's filtered down to the victims yet. Would also have knock-on effects on price inflation pretty fast. Trump has until mid April to approve.

paternity suitor
Aug 2, 2016


My man. Are you taking any profits?

The Butcher
Apr 20, 2005

Well, at least we tried.
Nap Ghost
Weedstocks down ~5% on news legalization pushed back to likely late summer, worst case sometime in the fall.

I don't think that matters at all big picture, this poo poo is still absolutely happening.

Good entry point today on this news I think. I'm sticking with the ETFs for the long ride as the individual stocks are too unpredictable.

Added more HMMJ at 18.16.

Solice Kirsk
Jun 1, 2004

.
I was actually kicking around the idea to invest all my tax return into HMMJ. My firm just finally greenlit us being able to buy it. Just kinda waiting for that money to hit to make up my mind.

jvick
Jun 24, 2008

WE ARE
PENN STATE

The Butcher posted:

Weedstocks down ~5% on news legalization pushed back to likely late summer, worst case sometime in the fall.

I don't think that matters at all big picture, this poo poo is still absolutely happening.

Good entry point today on this news I think. I'm sticking with the ETFs for the long ride as the individual stocks are too unpredictable.

Added more HMMJ at 18.16.

I had heard that they would probably push it back at least a few weeks since July 1st is Canada Day, and they wouldn't let the legalization happen on the same day. I've added to my MJ position a bit on some of these dips.

LiterallyAnything
Jul 11, 2008

by vyelkin
Current positions in the trading portfolio consist of calls on various gold/precious metal ETFs and some puts on Nelnet via talk a few pages back and the idea that if it hits I can use the money from shorting them to go towards my student loan payments which would be satisfying to me. All contracts have expirations at least into 2019 and past.

Short term I traded UVXY swings today for some modest gains. Despite being an amateur trader, it seemed a little too easy to predict the movement of the S&P after about ~1330 est today. I'm sure the massive volume of the volatility contracts worked in my favor in terms of keeping the price swings relatively calm. The range was essentially + or - $1 the entire second half of the day.

greasyhands
Oct 28, 2006

Best quality posts,
freshly delivered


LiterallyAnything posted:

Current positions in the trading portfolio consist of calls on various gold/precious metal ETFs and some puts on Nelnet via talk a few pages back and the idea that if it hits I can use the money from shorting them to go towards my student loan payments which would be satisfying to me. All contracts have expirations at least into 2019 and past.

Short term I traded UVXY swings today for some modest gains. Despite being an amateur trader, it seemed a little too easy to predict the movement of the S&P after about ~1330 est today. I'm sure the massive volume of the volatility contracts worked in my favor in terms of keeping the price swings relatively calm. The range was essentially + or - $1 the entire second half of the day.

Student loans, uvxy, easy to predict s&p movements. This post truly has it all, bravo

LiterallyAnything
Jul 11, 2008

by vyelkin
I'm literally "playing" the market like the game it is... and it feels good.

Am I supposed to be sorry or feel bad that you've been doing this for 20+ years and I'm new at it but getting gains? I don't understand the bitterness really.

Ruzihm
Aug 11, 2010

Group up and push mid, proletariat!


LiterallyAnything posted:

I'm literally "playing" the market like the game it is... and it feels good.

Am I supposed to be sorry or feel bad that you've been doing this for 20+ years and I'm new at it but getting gains? I don't understand the bitterness really.

he's saying u haven't cut your teeth yet

greasyhands
Oct 28, 2006

Best quality posts,
freshly delivered

LiterallyAnything posted:

I'm literally "playing" the market like the game it is... and it feels good.

Am I supposed to be sorry or feel bad that you've been doing this for 20+ years and I'm new at it but getting gains? I don't understand the bitterness really.
[

[quote="LiterallyAnything" post="481373922"]
I'm literally "playing" the market like the game it is... and it feels good.

Am I supposed to be sorry or feel bad that you've been doing this for 20+ years and I'm new at it but getting gains? I don't understand the bitterness really.

Theres nothing bitter about my post, I’m just laughing at your newness

LiterallyAnything
Jul 11, 2008

by vyelkin

Ruzihm posted:

he's saying u haven't cut your teeth yet

I definitely don't doubt that.

greasyhands posted:

Theres nothing bitter about my post, I’m just laughing at your newness

I get that, but serious question- I've been dabbling in the market and mostly losing money for two years now. At what point do my money-balls drop?

LiterallyAnything fucked around with this message at 03:56 on Feb 17, 2018

greasyhands
Oct 28, 2006

Best quality posts,
freshly delivered

LiterallyAnything posted:

I definitely don't doubt that.


I get that, but serious question- I've been dabbling in the market and mostly losing money for two years now. At what point do my money-balls drop?

Sometime after you stop believing daily s&p moves are easily predictable. And not having student loans will help too

Boxcar
Jul 29, 2000

LiterallyAnything posted:

I've been dabbling in the market and mostly losing money for two years now.

If you've been losing money over the last two years, please just go to the long term-investing thread and don't look back

fougera
Apr 5, 2009
Wait sorry, I thought someone had a good trade for student loans?

LiterallyAnything
Jul 11, 2008

by vyelkin
"dabbling" = play money. I've come out about even the last two years in the market. Check my past posts in the thread if you're really interested. For the record, I'm well ahead of my student loan, mortgage and car payments. My 401k, "real" investment, and general finances, are all managed by my financial advisor (:smug:). I'm just using my allocated "entertainment" money. He'd rather I put it all towards my mortgage but I got that poo poo @ 2.75% with no PMI so call me an idiot for trying to use my spending money to learn the market as a work(IT)/stay at home dad with jack else to do until my kid starts walking.

I called everyone my age idiots 6 years ago for "investing" in bitcoin and look at how wrong I was. And hell, I'm STILL not investing in altcoins.

LiterallyAnything fucked around with this message at 04:39 on Feb 17, 2018

sleepy gary
Jan 11, 2006

The s&p is up like 40% in the last two years.

LiterallyAnything
Jul 11, 2008

by vyelkin
Yeah, gently caress me there too. I'm a pessimist and I mostly tried to short everything. My 401k gained 19% though last year!

Lote
Aug 5, 2001

Place your bets
What stocks are you personally shorting and / or buying?

tangy yet delightful
Sep 13, 2005



The Butcher posted:

Weedstocks down ~5% on news legalization pushed back to likely late summer, worst case sometime in the fall.

I don't think that matters at all big picture, this poo poo is still absolutely happening.

Good entry point today on this news I think. I'm sticking with the ETFs for the long ride as the individual stocks are too unpredictable.

Added more HMMJ at 18.16.

I am thinking about putting some money I can afford to lose into this coming weed nirvana. From my research so far it looks like HMMJ is a good place to put that money.

Anyone else have any opinions on the matter?

Syrinxx
Mar 28, 2002

Death is whimsical today

HMMJ.TO and WEED.TO are the default recommendations. There's also a new one one, SEED.TO. but if you're in the US and don't want to buy OTC you can pick up MJ

Syrinxx fucked around with this message at 07:37 on Feb 17, 2018

nightbae smokewheat
Feb 11, 2011

LiterallyAnything posted:

"dabbling" = play money. I've come out about even the last two years in the market. Check my past posts in the thread if you're really interested. For the record, I'm well ahead of my student loan, mortgage and car payments. My 401k, "real" investment, and general finances, are all managed by my financial advisor (:smug:). I'm just using my allocated "entertainment" money. He'd rather I put it all towards my mortgage but I got that poo poo @ 2.75% with no PMI so call me an idiot for trying to use my spending money to learn the market as a work(IT)/stay at home dad with jack else to do until my kid starts walking.

I called everyone my age idiots 6 years ago for "investing" in bitcoin and look at how wrong I was. And hell, I'm STILL not investing in altcoins.

lol

ohgodwhat
Aug 6, 2005

LiterallyAnything posted:

Yeah, gently caress me there too. I'm a pessimist and I mostly tried to short everything. My 401k gained 19% though last year!

So like you've been wrong about pretty much everything but one day you made money swing trading UVXY? Yes, that's jealousy we're feeling. Please share your secret to success

Omnicarus
Jan 16, 2006

The Costco chicken stock or beef stock is pretty drat good, in case anyone is looking to buy a lot of stock in one go. Also it doesn't expire for about a year or two so you can hold on to it no worries.

Harry Potter on Ice
Nov 4, 2006


IF IM NOT BITCHING ABOUT HOW SHITTY MY LIFE IS, REPORT ME FOR MY ACCOUNT HAS BEEN HIJACKED

Lote posted:

What stocks are you personally shorting and / or buying?

I want to know more too

Michael Transactions
Nov 11, 2013

Lote posted:

What stocks are you personally shorting and / or buying?

Buiying all the good ones and shorting all the bad ones

Snack Bitch
May 15, 2008

Goodness no, now that wouldn't do at all!

Omnicarus posted:

The Costco chicken stock or beef stock is pretty drat good, in case anyone is looking to buy a lot of stock in one go. Also it doesn't expire for about a year or two so you can hold on to it no worries.

You can even make your own beef stock at home. One secret the SEC doesn't want you to know!

EBB
Feb 15, 2005

I'm long on powdered bouillon futures. Never goes bad so the value can only go up UP UP!

Omnicarus
Jan 16, 2006

EVA BRAUN BLOWJOBS posted:

I'm long on powdered bouillon futures. Never goes bad so the value can only go up UP UP!

Better Than Bouillon is a pretty well diversified stock foundation too. Low sodium and high sodium portfolios are available, though IMO high sodium gives better returns per serving in terms of taste.

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tangy yet delightful
Sep 13, 2005



Syrinxx posted:

HMMJ.TO and WEED.TO are the default recommendations. There's also a new one one, SEED.TO. but if you're in the US and don't want to buy OTC you can pick up MJ

Follow-up question. I currently have a Vanguard account for my retirement accounts, it looks like you can trade OTC via a phone call to them and it's something like $25 per trade. Since my gameplan would be to buy whatever I settle on and them hold for a few years at least prior to selling would this be my best bet?

Any recommended OTC trading platforms that are going to take someone looking to be around $1000 starting out with like 1 trade a year or less volume?

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