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Captain Fuck Face
May 6, 2007

:] i like to read post :]

spb posted:

oh it was a joke

i got it :classiclol:

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joats
Aug 18, 2007
stupid bewbie
Looks like Albertsons is buying the rest of the Rite Aid Stores. I have no idea what this means but it jumped up premarket before crashing back down.

proctorbot
Jan 27, 2005
BUT CAN IT FEEL??!?!
lol Wal-Mart. how low would this have to drop before you'd consider taking a position? seems bit oversold for a slight earnings miss... still have a shitload of revenue and market share. if it hits 89 today I'm getting in.

Solice Kirsk
Jun 1, 2004

.
I make too much money to own Walmart. :smug: Maybe I'll buy into Prada.

dougdrums
Feb 25, 2005
CLIENT REQUESTED ELECTRONIC FUNDING RECEIPT (FUNDS NOW)
Disappointing that I wasn't able to catch this one this morning:
TGH:
Buy to Open 2 Mar 16 2018 20 Call
Buy to Open 1 May 18 2018 22.5 Call
@1.20

I'm going on a rampage here now with the boats...

EAT FASTER!!!!!!
Sep 21, 2002

Legendary.


:hampants::hampants::hampants:

proctorbot posted:

lol Wal-Mart. how low would this have to drop before you'd consider taking a position? seems bit oversold for a slight earnings miss... still have a shitload of revenue and market share. if it hits 89 today I'm getting in.

The replacement cost of the real estate owned by Wal*Mart that Wal*Mart owns alone is worth like $220B.

EAT FASTER!!!!!!
Sep 21, 2002

Legendary.


:hampants::hampants::hampants:
I don't understand the bet against Wal*Mart, honestly.

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal

EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:

I don't understand the bet against Wal*Mart, honestly.

The only thing I could see them doing that is insane is buying up some dumb internet company to compete with Amazon and losing badly.

proctorbot
Jan 27, 2005
BUT CAN IT FEEL??!?!

EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:

I don't understand the bet against Wal*Mart, honestly.

"Amazon!!! brick and mortar is dead!!"

I think that's about it.

LLCoolJD
Dec 8, 2007

Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!

EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:

I don't understand the bet against Wal*Mart, honestly.

They're still a "boring" and steady stock that happens to be up quite a bit compared to recent years. That's about all I can say against their stock price.

Cheesemaster200
Feb 11, 2004

Guard of the Citadel

proctorbot posted:

"Amazon!!! brick and mortar is dead!!"

I think that's about it.

One of these days, the whole Amazon!!! frenzy narrative is going to collapse and there are going to be a lot of good deals out there. The problem is figuring out when that will actually happen.

greasyhands
Oct 28, 2006

Best quality posts,
freshly delivered
I feel like most of you guys have absolutely no idea how to analyze the intrinsic value of a company. I know there is a lot of wiggle how to value something, but acting like WMT being down 10% is crazy and now its super cheap is just ignant. It was $75 like 6 months ago. Has WMT grown 30+% in the last six months? If not, why does it suddenly seem cheap just because its having a down day from an overinflated price? Where were you when it was $75 just a few short months ago? This market is way overinflated and now is not the time to try to “bottom fish” poo poo that is still expensive by any historical metric. Ya’ll are being set up to be loving bagholders if you think WMT is cheap today.

joats
Aug 18, 2007
stupid bewbie

Cheesemaster200 posted:

One of these days, the whole Amazon!!! frenzy narrative is going to collapse and there are going to be a lot of good deals out there. The problem is figuring out when that will actually happen.

You already thought about it, the market already adjusted.

EAT FASTER!!!!!!
Sep 21, 2002

Legendary.


:hampants::hampants::hampants:

greasyhands posted:

I feel like most of you guys have absolutely no idea how to analyze the intrinsic value of a company. I know there is a lot of wiggle how to value something, but acting like WMT being down 10% is crazy and now its super cheap is just ignant. It was $75 like 6 months ago. Has WMT grown 30+% in the last six months? If not, why does it suddenly seem cheap just because its having a down day from an overinflated price? Where were you when it was $75 just a few short months ago? This market is way overinflated and now is not the time to try to “bottom fish” poo poo that is still expensive by any historical metric. Ya’ll are being set up to be loving bagholders if you think WMT is cheap today.

The ground under Wal*Mart is worth, give or take $200B, the debt Wal*Mart has is just about $200B. If you think the enterprise is worth > $80B on top of that, WMT is cheap today. If you think WMT is worth < $80B on top of that, WMT isn't cheap today.

It was cheap 12 months ago, it was cheap 6 months ago, it's cheap again now.

Tokyo Sex Whale
Oct 9, 2012

"My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"
If WMT real estate value is a sure thing I feel like there are a number of mall reits with heavy sears exposure that should be screaming buys

proctorbot
Jan 27, 2005
BUT CAN IT FEEL??!?!
if you never bought stocks where the price is higher than what the company is intrinsically worth, you wouldn't have bought much of anything for the past half decade and missed out on incredible gains.

The Butcher
Apr 20, 2005

Well, at least we tried.
Nap Ghost
“Blockchain” Stocks Completely Disintegrate
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/02/18/blockchain-stocks-completely-disintegrate/

Who could have foreseen such an outcome?

I was so sure that Long Blockchain Iced Blockchain Tea Blockchain was the future!

The Butcher fucked around with this message at 22:41 on Feb 20, 2018

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog
What on earth is any single company Intrinsically Worth? The value of the dirt + brick and mortar on top?

Solice Kirsk
Jun 1, 2004

.

The Butcher posted:

“Blockchain” Stocks Completely Disintegrate
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/02/18/blockchain-stocks-completely-disintegrate/

Who could have foreseen such an outcome?

I was so sure that Long Blockchain Iced Blockchain Tea Blockchain was the future!

GBTC seems to be up 12% on the day. Also, did GBTC have a stock split or something? Last time I checked it was at like $1000 and now its $20.

Accretionist
Nov 7, 2012
I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES
Yeah, 91-to-1

a dingus
Mar 22, 2008

Rhetorical questions only
Fun Shoe
That means whoever bought in before the split is 91x richer.

Solice Kirsk
Jun 1, 2004

.
Play to be more attractive for institutional investors I take it.

dougdrums
Feb 25, 2005
CLIENT REQUESTED ELECTRONIC FUNDING RECEIPT (FUNDS NOW)
I'd imagine it's kinda lovely to deal in options for something that can go from $600 to over $1000 in such a short period.

Oh, GBTC has no options ... I swear it did at one time for some reason.

baquerd
Jul 2, 2007

by FactsAreUseless
Do options adjust with the stock on a split?

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

baquerd posted:

Do options adjust with the stock on a split?

Yes.

mike-
Jul 9, 2004

Phillipians 1:21

GoGoGadgetChris posted:

What on earth is any single company Intrinsically Worth? The value of the dirt + brick and mortar on top?

The value of its tangible and intangible assets.

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog

mike- posted:

The value of its tangible and intangible assets.

I don't think an intangible asset can have an intrinsic value, though...

Can anyone give an example of a company's specific intrinsic value?

dougdrums
Feb 25, 2005
CLIENT REQUESTED ELECTRONIC FUNDING RECEIPT (FUNDS NOW)

GoGoGadgetChris posted:

I don't think an intangible asset can have an intrinsic value, though...

Can anyone give an example of a company's specific intrinsic value?

Not current but: http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1996.html

vvv I always figured intrinsic value as DCF due to the aforementioned writing ...

dougdrums fucked around with this message at 01:59 on Feb 21, 2018

Tokyo Sex Whale
Oct 9, 2012

"My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"

GoGoGadgetChris posted:

I don't think an intangible asset can have an intrinsic value, though...

Can anyone give an example of a company's specific intrinsic value?

Liquidation value or DCF. Both involve assumptions, there is no one real number. If you think this is a stupid question and not a difficult one you are actually the idiot unless you are strictly doing Jack Daniels style technical trades.

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog

Tokyo Sex Whale posted:

involve assumptions, there is no one real number.

Completely mutually exclusive from "intrinsic", lol

dougdrums
Feb 25, 2005
CLIENT REQUESTED ELECTRONIC FUNDING RECEIPT (FUNDS NOW)

GoGoGadgetChris posted:

I don't think an intangible asset can have an intrinsic value, though...

Can anyone give an example of a company's specific intrinsic value?

I just realized and intangible asset is actually used as an example:

quote:

You can gain some insight into the differences between book value and intrinsic value by looking at one form of investment, a college education. Think of the education's cost as its "book value." If this cost is to be accurate, it should include the earnings that were foregone by the student because he chose college rather than a job.

For this exercise, we will ignore the important non-economic benefits of an education and focus strictly on its economic value. First, we must estimate the earnings that the graduate will receive over his lifetime and subtract from that figure an estimate of what he would have earned had he lacked his education. That gives us an excess earnings figure, which must then be discounted, at an appropriate interest rate, back to graduation day. The dollar result equals the intrinsic economic value of the education.

Some graduates will find that the book value of their education exceeds its intrinsic value, which means that whoever paid for the education didn't get his money's worth. In other cases, the intrinsic value of an education will far exceed its book value, a result that proves capital was wisely deployed. In all cases, what is clear is that book value is meaningless as an indicator of intrinsic value.

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog
Ah, I didn't realize Intrinsic Value was a trade term. Seems like a poor choice of word since the concept totally clashes with the book value dictionary meaning of intrinsic

Step 1 of calculating the true, natural value of an asset... Discount the cash flows at like... 4% or 8%, idunno

mike-
Jul 9, 2004

Phillipians 1:21

GoGoGadgetChris posted:

Ah, I didn't realize Intrinsic Value was a trade term. Seems like a poor choice of word since the concept totally clashes with the book value dictionary meaning of intrinsic

Step 1 of calculating the true, natural value of an asset... Discount the cash flows at like... 4% or 8%, idunno

You would discount the cash flows by a rate commensurate with the risk of the asset. Typically, the more tangible an asset is the lower the rate, and vice versa. Goodwill, which is an accounting recognition of non separable or identifiable intangibles would command a high discount rate, whereas something like working capital would have the lowest.

It looks like someone else already answered your other question to me, but just to add on to confirm that yes, intangible assets do have intrinsic value.

Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

bio/pharma bottom bounce type play with nice Insider Buying:

ONTX

https://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ONTX&ty=c&p=d&b=1

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

bio/pharma bottom bounce type play with nice Insider Buying:

TNDM

https://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TNDM&ty=c&p=d&b=1

Only registered members can see post attachments!

dougdrums
Feb 25, 2005
CLIENT REQUESTED ELECTRONIC FUNDING RECEIPT (FUNDS NOW)
:thunk:

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Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

yeah TNDM looks sweet to me... fantastic potential, especially above 4.00 and the gap-fill

ohgodwhat
Aug 6, 2005

Am I blind? Is that saying ITM options are 3 delta? I assume it's just a display issue.

dougdrums
Feb 25, 2005
CLIENT REQUESTED ELECTRONIC FUNDING RECEIPT (FUNDS NOW)
Yeah uh someone's been buying them at 5c since the middle of January ... unless my shits all hosed up

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Harry
Jun 13, 2003

I do solemnly swear that in the year 2015 I will theorycraft my wallet as well as my WoW
Welcome to low volume, insider traded, pump and dumps.

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