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Pinterest Mom posted:Nate Silver is right about both Trump and Sanders, hth. Trump has a higher chance of winning the R primary than Sanders does of winning the D one imo. I dunno if he can keep the frenzy going long enough but if he can pull it off he will win states.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:20
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Pinterest Mom posted:Nate Silver is right about both Trump and Sanders, hth. Probably, but he acknowledges that he has almost no basis for building his predictions on them. You really can't predict primary success based on polling at this point, and that's his actual area of expertise.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:20
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MrBims posted:Nate Silver has also been really down on Sanders, saying he won't win because he can't appeal to minorities, he won't win even if gets both Iowa and NH, Bernie will only appeal to a stereotyped college left. He just doesn't get this election. Pinterest Mom posted:Nate Silver is right about both Trump and Sanders, hth. Correct, though the bigger problem for both is their failure to secure endorsements, not the relative strength of their base.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:20
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Three Olives posted:http://morningconsult.com/2015/08/trumps-lead-grows-after-debate-controversy/ HOW HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE
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Aug 10, 2015 19:21
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Boosted_C5 posted:HOW Surrender your forebrain. The Trumpocalypse is upon us.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:22
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[ASK OF TRUMP SUPPORTERS ONLY] 10. If Donald Trump does not win the Republican nomination for president and runs as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote? 8.7-8.15 Trump Supporters The Republican candidate 19 Donald Trump, the independent candidate 54 The Democratic candidate * Depends 21 Wouldn’t vote/Don’t know 3 Someone else 2 No answer 2
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Aug 10, 2015 19:22
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Nuclearmonkee posted:Trump has a higher chance of winning the R primary than Sanders does of winning the D one imo. I dunno if he can keep the frenzy going long enough but if he can pull it off he will win states. I disagree. The path to Bernie securing the nomination would involve Hillary dropping out of the race for some reason around February of next year, after most of the primary ballot deadlines are done. Even in that situation, I don't think Bernie would be the nominee, but it would increase his chance from "zero" to "not zero". There's no similar situation for Trump because the Republican field has plenty of backups.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:23
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Brannock posted:I can't help but think of Nate Silver smugly laying out why Trump has absolutely no chance ever nope no way. Can't wait for silver to be dead wrong cause he don't know what he's talking about.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:23
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Nuclearmonkee posted:Donald "Stay and we keep the oil" Trump has a higher chance of winning the R primary than Sanders does of winning the D one imo. I dunno if he can keep the frenzy going long enough but if he can pull it off he will win states. Do you legitimately believe he can keep a frenzy going for six months?
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Aug 10, 2015 19:23
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Brannock posted:I mean, to refresh your memories, here's the piece Silver wrote on Trump's nomination chances several days ago: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/ To be fair to Nate we're still in the stage 1 "polling matches media coverage" stage of the cycle he laid out. That said, the interesting thing about this primary is not how long Trump will last, but whether one of Trump/Carson/Cruz can actually win the nomination. Those three will probably trade the crazy vote 2012 not-Romney style but that 18-20% will still outpoll Bush and Walker until one of those two drops out. If the GOP establishment wants to regain control of this election they need to ignore Trump for a while and focus on dumping one of Bush or Walker.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:23
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Maybe we're going to have the SA version of unskewing polls when the actual elections get nearer.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:24
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the best election would be both trump and bernie doing third party runs destroying the current party system and causing the suicide of the entire RNC and DNC. too bad bernie doesn't have the balls to do it 
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Aug 10, 2015 19:24
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Tatum Girlparts posted:Do you legitimately believe he can keep a frenzy going for six months? No. I can hope though.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:25
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:538 has really been doing poorly so far this cycle. they need to start making less absolute declarations until a lot closer to elections imo For all his fancy analysis he still does no better than a simple poll average. Tatum Girlparts posted:Do you legitimately believe he can keep a frenzy going for six months? Goons have been selling trump short from the getgo. First it was his ceiling is 5%, then 10%. Pretty much everyone has been totally wrong about him thus far and I don't expect that to stop.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:25
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Seems reasonable that moderates without a chosen party would pick a book nerd socialist over a brash, gives-no-fucks businessman.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:25
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Boosted_C5 posted:HOW It's a really weak field and Trump is famous and enjoyable.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:26
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Carrasco posted:Loudness? Number of bankruptcies? Hillary is seen as evasive and aloof and measured in what she says. She doesn't often talk to the media and keeps them at arms length, she has an image of being secretly up to something. She's another political professional doing most of her work behind the scenes and delivering a carefully cultivated public persona. She is seen as in the pocket of moneyed interests, and she represents the epitome of the "establishment". She comes across as dishonest, even to many of her own supporters. Trump can attack her on all those things. He can call her out, publicly, frequently, and do it well enough that if she doesn't respond, he wins, and if she takes too long to respond people will have moved on to the next thing he's said. He is more than willing to talk to the media - constantly! He can use that to play up the fact that Hillary doesn't, and try to force her onto the field in a way that doesn't work to her strengths but does work to his. He feels like he talks to the average person rather than being above them - he writes his own statements, runs his own twitter, says the things the "common man" (read: morons) are thinking. He's seen as an honest straight-talker, even if he isn't, that wouldn't be afraid to call Hillary out on evasiveness and "bullshit". He's out in the open, and of all the bad things people think about him, no one has accused him of being in anyone's pocket or working towards anything but what he seems to be working towards. He is one of the few candidates that can call her out on stuff he himself has not done, or even on stuff he has done without it hurting him as much. And he has pretty powerful proof that she's bought and paid for, what with his "buying favours from her and getting them" line of attack. What can Hillary attack him on? His misogyny? I mean, I think that's probably the reason she'll still win, but what else does she have? Especially since with everything he's said, policy wise he could very easily swing to the center for the general. (And I don't think many people will even actually buy that he's a mysogynist, since he doesn't seem to treat men all that much differently than how he treats women, he comes across as more of a general rear end in a top hat which people find a lot more attractive than someone who singles out women in particular) And his rhetoric appeals really strongly to "liberals" who want nice things like universal healthcare but also have a lot of spite for those other people they don't like.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:26
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euphronius posted:It's a really weak field and Trump is famous and enjoyable.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:27
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Look this is all fun and everything but there's still a 75% chance of this being Clinton vs Bush
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Aug 10, 2015 19:27
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echronorian posted:Look this is all fun and everything but there's still a 75% chance of this being Clinton vs Bush I'm not buying at this point that Bush has a chance in hell.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:28
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Why is everyone so surprised by Trump's numbers going up uP UP?
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Aug 10, 2015 19:29
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echronorian posted:Look this is all fun and everything but there's still a 75% chance of this being Clinton vs Bush Walker was my original threat, as Bush has always proven to be less intelligent than his brother George. Florida is a failed state. Walker has been shown to lack mental clarity.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:29
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Does anyone have a link to the full fox debate?
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Aug 10, 2015 19:29
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GlyphGryph posted:I'm not buying at this point that Bush has a chance in hell. In 2011 there was certainty it'd be Chris Christie. Anyone but Romney. Who knows?
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Aug 10, 2015 19:30
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Nate Silver said my arena deck would go 4/3 but I got 6 wins, he really undervalues taunt 
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Aug 10, 2015 19:30
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Tatum Girlparts posted:Maybe we're going to have the SA version of unskewing polls when the actual elections get nearer. Boosted_C5 is back, after all.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:31
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Nuclearmonkee posted:He has lost millions of dollars worth of deals since he started the crazy train rolling. He's in for real. I could be wrong but here's my opinion on Donald J Trump: Donald Trump is a carny, and the Republican base are his marks. He is not serious, this is about bilking idiots out of money and having fun doing it. As far as lost deals, when you get 24 million Americans to watch a Republican primary debate in the middle of summer it shows the power of your brand. Yeah he lost a lot, but he will gain even more once he dumps out. Hell, he's most likely in negotiations with Fox right now for an Apprentice-esque show.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:31
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quote:- Republican support for real estate mogul Donald Trump held firm after a televised presidential debate last week in which he feuded with rivals and moderators, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday. (n=278 though)
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Aug 10, 2015 19:33
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So basically most people didn't watch the debate and no one seems to be ditching Trump over the Megyn Kelly thing. e: although 'most' might be a slim majority, that debate was pretty loving well watched compared to others of its kind. Slate Action fucked around with this message at 19:37 on Aug 10, 2015 |
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Aug 10, 2015 19:34
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Methodology is far more important than sample size.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:36
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According to the NBC poll about 40% of those polled watched the debate.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:37
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TheDisreputableDog posted:Nate Silver said my arena deck would go 4/3 but I got 6 wins, he really undervalues taunt Nate Silver deserves a lot of credit for his role in "bringing statistics into the mainstream". But one should not confuse this with him being particularly good at statistics.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:38
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Slate Action posted:So basically most people didn't watch the debate and no one seems to be ditching Trump over the Megyn Kelly thing. Why? Bush took a huge hit, which was expected from his dismal performance and the winners got slight bumps. Trump didn't do great but he hardly messed up hard enough to affect his numbers much.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:38
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Shakugan posted:Nate Silver deserves a lot of credit for his role in "bringing statistics into the mainstream". But one should not confuse this with him being particularly good at statistics. I don't buy the "Nate Silver doesn't know what he's doing" meme. He's definitely quite competent.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:39
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Pinterest Mom posted:Nate Silver is right about both Trump and Sanders, hth. Yep. Here is a list of Republicans who actually have a non-zero shot at the nomination: Jeb Bush Scott Walker Marco Rubio (much less than the 2 above) John Kasich (basically only if Bush crashes and burns early; I'm just saying it's a non-zero chance) Every single other person in the...17? They are all doomed. Bernie also has no chance against Hillary Clinton. Nobody has any chance against Hillary Clinton. The only way a non-Hillary Clinton wins the primary is if she exits the field. Which doesn't make any of this any less entertaining, mind you! But just because polls have TRUMP with huge leads means precisely dick-all. He has a hard ceiling, and worst case scenario the GOP will just tell his candidacy to go to hell by changing the rules.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:40
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Rubio will go back to Cuba in a few years forgotten.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:40
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What do people think about Bush and Walker splitting the field and causing chaos in the primaries? Is this likely to happen?
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Aug 10, 2015 19:41
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hes treating current numbers as way too absolute and unchanging. he initially declared when trump announced that trump would go nowhere because his unfavorables were way too high, except those numbers have completely reversed and trump now has some of the highest favorables in the party. he declared that bernie could never win because only white liberals support him (when a month early he didnt even have that support), but i doubt hillary has a complete lock on every other demographic just yet.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:44
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Can't stump the motherfuckingTrump. If the mainstream media would just stop attacking him and predicting his demise every time he says something it would happen on its own but they can't help themselves.
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Aug 10, 2015 19:45
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FairGame posted:Yep. Here is a list of Republicans who actually have a non-zero shot at the nomination: Trump has a better chance than walker. The mistake people make is that they think in absolutes. It's not natural to think probabalistically but that has been shown time and time again to be the best way to make predictions. Assigning a 0% chance this far out is pretty much always wrong. Sheng-ji Yang posted:hes treating current numbers as way too absolute and unchanging. he initially declared when trump announced that trump would go nowhere because his unfavorables were way too high, except those numbers have completely reversed and trump now has some of the highest favorables in the party. he declared that bernie could never win because only white liberals support him (when a month early he didnt even have that support), but i doubt hillary has a complete lock on every other demographic just yet. Exactly. People keep trying to make these prediction with trump and they've been wrong every time. TROIKA CURES GREEK fucked around with this message at 19:47 on Aug 10, 2015 |
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Aug 10, 2015 19:45
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