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Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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No Wave posted:

When did you guys feel "satisfied" that your plan was right? It seems like there's always more to read, but I feel pretty solid on this now.

When I realized the basic plan of low-complexity allocation-based indexing, combined with maxing out your tax-protected vehicles, was what all the actually-rich people I talked to did (at least those who didn't simply inherit some sort of windfall too big to practically spend), and all the other stuff was almost uniformly done/promoted by people who either aspired or acted rich, but weren't. It's not particularly obvious when you start, since many, many of the actually-rich people often act very low key, whereas the aspiring are very talkative, but when you really dig deep, that's the reality.

Unormal fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Jul 11, 2013

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Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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No Wave posted:

You contribute as the employer - basically, you have to set up your own company (with only one employee) that receives the payments that the other companies make. Then you contribute as yourself, the employee, and as yourself, the employer - so effectively the employer contribution is a business expense and the employee contribution is a personal one.

I'm still learning more about this, so if anyone has expertise and can jump in/correct me let me know.

solo401(k) is just OP as gently caress, needs a nerf next patch. Effective total contribution limits are something like 50k/year if you make enough. You'll find the more you make, the more incredibly unfairly tilted everything is in your favor. The first time I made more than the withholding limit and stopped paying those taxes before the end of the year was very :aaaaa:

Unormal fucked around with this message at 22:58 on Jul 11, 2013

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

Mod sass? This evening?! But the cakes aren't ready! THE CAKES!
Fun Shoe
For what it's worth my employer's payroll systems have always cut off deductions into Fidelity as soon as I hit the cap for that year; so you might not have to worry about it. Best just ask HR/payroll provider. The only trick was when multiple payroll systems/401k/paycheck sources were in play, since they don't track totals together or anything.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

Mod sass? This evening?! But the cakes aren't ready! THE CAKES!
Fun Shoe

Orange_Lazarus posted:

If anyone has any advice here are the options my wife has for her 401k:



Right now I'm going with 50% Vanguard Institutional, 40% Vanguard Total International and 10% Sterling Total Bond Fund. I just realized recently that my wife's company actually pays the fund fees so I'm wondering if I could make her account a bit more diversified since I don't have to worry about the fees. I wish to be aggressive since I plan to use other retirement/investing vehicles as well as our 401k.

I was thinking about primarily adding the Sterling Small Value Fund and Sterling Capital Equity. The Sterling Capital Equity fund is focused on dividends but I'm more interested in the diversification (lots of companies outside the institutional index) than dividends.

The Harbor International fund seems less diversified than the Vanguard one. So I'm not sure if it's worth putting anything in there.

Honestly, with those three funds, you're pretty darn close to maximally diversified. Personally, I'd just keep it simple using those three funds.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Fun Shoe

Folly posted:

I'm 35. More importantly, I have about 3 or 4 times this amount in tax deferred accounts. So I could conceivably put all of this Schwab money in one or two asset classes and use my tax deferred accounts to complete a diversified portfolio

So maybe I'm over-thinking this. What options for taxable investments have the lowest total overhead (taxes and fees) for long term investments? I don't know individual stocks that well, so I was hoping for passive ETFs or maybe mutual funds at this stage.

I was assuming an eventual ratio of something like
35% large cap domestic stock (value/dividend oriented)
10% mid cap stock
5% Small value stock
10% foreign large cap
5% foreign small cap
5% emerging markets
15% bonds
5-10% REIT
5-10% other

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Principles_of_tax-efficient_fund_placement

That's a pretty good overview of how to split out your investments. The principals are pretty simple, you put tax-inefficient stuff (usually bonds and bond-like instruments who's returns are mostly taxable dividends) in your IRA/401k/other protected accounts, and put tax more efficient vehicles (stocks and stock-like instruments who's returns are mostly price appreciation) in your taxable accounts.

Personally my taxable accounts are mostly low-cost stock indices and municipal bonds, with taxable bonds and REITs in my tax-protected accounts.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Fun Shoe

Mouse Cadet posted:

So are you guys riding this out, switching to bonds?

Riding what out? :D

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Fun Shoe
Having rode the market from 1560 to 666 all-in, these scale pullbacks feel pretty inconsequential. During 2007-2008 the volatility was insane, it felt like it was going up and down 2-3% per day, almost every day. Nowadays I just don't even pay attention.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Fun Shoe

Henrik Zetterberg posted:

Thank you, this is awesome!


Well, according to this:
http://www.irs.gov/Retirement-Plans/Amount-of-Roth-IRA-Contributions-That-You-Can-Make-For-2013

Once I make over $112k/year, then my max contribution amount reduces from $5500 to some lower value. How does Vanguard know what my personal max contribution can be for that given year? Same for when I make over $127k, then I can no longer contribute.

Vanguard doesn't know, you have to manage it, usually you track it at tax time (since by then you'll know your AGI). If you over-contribute in a year you'll owe penalties on anything earned, etc. Ultimately it's your responsibility, not Vanguard's, and if you contribute over your allowance, that's on you.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Fun Shoe

Now here's something we can all agree on.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

Mod sass? This evening?! But the cakes aren't ready! THE CAKES!
Fun Shoe

moflika posted:

I might be making a move that would have a higher chance of succeeding if I give myself a nicer cushion. Aside from that, I'd have nothing against leaving it alone for x years as I've already been doing :)

Regardless, thanks for the reply!

As long as your comfortable with your stock/bond split, doing nothing and ignoring your money is basically the optimal investment strategy.

If you need less risk, by all means sell some into cash or lower risk funds, but realize you're going to take the capital gains tax (presuming you have some gains) when you sell. I'd only sell what I needed to get to my target cash amount. If the answer to "what's your target amount of cash" is "???", I'd think about that carefully before doing anything at all.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Fun Shoe

DNK posted:

The hypothetical I'm wrestling with is that I'm positive that I'll be able to invest into a weaker market in the future. I'm sure there will be a valley lower than today's mountain.

And that is the Farseer-ish claim with which you are all in agreement is wrong in principle. Duly, it is a lovely long-term investment strategy to not invest. Got it.

What are the (overarching; I'm sure the details are horrifying) penalties and fees associated with moving assets within a IRA/401k into different vehicles? There's a question with which I have a burning desire to know the answer to.

Why are you positive? Even if you dip into tea leaves (technical analysis) it seems like we're sitting squarely on a trend-line that goes back to the 70s (or earlier) with P/E that might be in the highish end of normal, but still within practical norms. You can't predict the market. In 2000 maybe, but right now the market is pretty normative.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Fun Shoe

trigonsareNOThomo posted:

I recently came into some money I was NOT expecting to come into. Having just recently paid off my student loans and car, this is a huge blessing.

I received about 88,000 dollars from a step-relative who I had no idea would will me this money. My question to you guys is how I should proceed. I have a pretty low paying job all things considered, but I want to start putting this money into a retirement account. I guess my basic questions are how I should get started. Should I open up a lazy portfolio and Roth IRA? If so, who is currently the best to go with, Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab? I think I only have a Schwab in my town out of these options, but these accounts can be opened through the internet, correct? Any advice is appreciated.

Put it all into a safe and stable vehicle like a savings or money market account (A money market account at Vanguard is a solid option, but by no means the only one. It's under the FDIC insurance limit, so a regular ol' bank savings account would work perfectly fine.). Then buy the books in the OP, and start reading. There's no rush, the market will still be there when you're ready to commit to an investment strategy. If you're investing it sooner than 3-6 months from now, you're probably rushing it.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Fun Shoe

Cicero posted:

Kind of surprised the The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing isn't in the OP, given how much we love Vanguard. Seems like a good overview book (I actually just got it as the second edition came out recently).

I find Four Pillars to just be sort of a better exposition of the same underlying philosophy.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Fun Shoe

FateFree posted:

Dumb question here. I mentioned earlier I have 100k in my 401k, but I am now capped at 6% due to being a high income employee. I plan to contribute to a Vanguard 2055 plan for the remainder of what I used to max out my 401k with (so another 8% of my salary). However, am I missing out on compound interest since I am essentially starting from scratch with this new account? Does the value of a long term retirement savings account come from continually putting monthly contributions, or compound interest on top of those contributions?

Same question can be boiled down to this: If I had one maxed out 401k for 30 years straight, vs 2 401ks at half the max, would the net income be the same in the end?

Yes, it's the same. 100,000 earning 5% earns 5% no matter if it is in one account of $100,000 or 1,000 accounts of $100 each. The only thing different is your fund choice, fees, and if you're investing pre or post tax, but you'll lose nothing in compound interest if you're saving the same dollar amount; and almost all of those things (even compound interest) are dwarfed by your savings rate early on (below 500kish, where earnings start to tilt towards investment returns for a typical saver.)

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Fun Shoe

Donald Kimball posted:

Fiancee started a new job recently and has a new 401k through her company. Her previous employer 401k was through Fidelity, and her new employer uses Fidelity too. She has the option to rollover her contributions to a Fidelity IRA. Should we do this?

Yes, it's almost always a good idea to roll it over into a Fidelity or Vanguard (or other low-cost provider) IRA, unless you have some absurdly rare and valuable options in your new 401k (which you almost certainly don't). IRAs have more or less the same upsides and no exposure to withdrawl blackouts or your employer's malfeasance.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

Mod sass? This evening?! But the cakes aren't ready! THE CAKES!
Fun Shoe

moana posted:

I'll likely be doing this for the first time at the end of this year; is there a cap to how much you can rollover into an IRA from a 401k or no?

Nope. The only trick is matching up roth/traditional contribution rollovers into the matching form of IRA, but just call the institution. If you're with Vanguard, at least, they'll assign you a person to manage the whole transaction. It's pretty trivial.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Fun Shoe

baquerd posted:

Can someone explain to me why WFIOX (Well's Fargo S&P 500 Index) poo poo the bed to the tune of 4% losses that weren't reflected in the S&P around December 11th, 2013? And also why I can't seem to find any news regarding this, and why Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance see this while Morningstar does not?

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/WFIOX:US
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WFIOX+Interactive#symbol=WFIOX;range=1y
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/WFIOX/f?t=WFIOX

Looks like an ex-dividend date to me.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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DNK posted:

How does that work with regards to contribution limits? Can you roll $50k of 401k into an IRA in a single year?

Yes, as much as you want, it's a non-taxable event.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Guinness posted:

If your 401k is good, I would hesitate to roll over to a traditional IRA because you'll lose the benefit of being able to do a tax-free backdoor Roth IRA contribution (assuming you don't have any other traditional IRA assets). But if that's not a concern, roll away.

I'd always roll it over into an IRA if backdoor issues aren't a problem. 401k blackouts/malfeasance are very real, and can happen to you. Don't be more dependent on your employer's goodwill and good behavior than you have to be, you already are for your job.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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ZentraediElite posted:

Does anybody do sector specific ETFs? They sound fun, right?

Just buy a single broad global market index and you own all the sectors.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Worst case 401k scenario is that your company embezzles the whole thing and you lose it completely. Second-best-worst-case is it enters a 401k blackout period and you lose the ability to access it for years.

There are plenty of cases where drawing on your 401k is the best of your terrible options.

Unormal fucked around with this message at 01:26 on Sep 24, 2014

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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semicolonsrock posted:

What is a reasonable place to invest money which I expect to take out in 2 years other than a savings account? I'm concerned that most investing options are too volatile and might leave me down significantly in 2 years or not leave me with enough liquidity to actually take the money out.

Savings, money market account, or Bank CD.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Fun Shoe
There's no free lunch, all you're doing branching out into personal loans is adding risk. Personally, I wouldn't 'diversify' into junk bonds with money I needed in two years.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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antiga posted:

This is an odd thing to say because diversification is one of the only places I'm aware of that you could make a decent argument for a free lunch. If he's already decided to buy high risk bonds, it's dead wrong to say that diversifying his purchase is 'adding risk'.

That being said, something like an I bond fund would be a more appropriate choice for a two year horizon. I would not recommend savings or CD because they are likely offering negative real returns right now.

Tilting towards riskier assets within a broad asset class isn't diversification.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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antiga posted:

Diversification is irrelevant if you're talking about investing in fundamentally different assets. Personal lending is risky but diversifying it into small loans to many individuals instead of one bond is a textbook example of decreasing your risk. Again, personal loans are not what I would recommend but your post made no sense.

I bonds were an example and not necessarily a personal recommendation (because I don't know the posters situation in detail, there are annual purchase limits etc). That being said they are treasury bonds indexed to inflation.

Bank CDs are extremely diverse loans across a large number of individuals plus depost insurance. Personal lending is just a higher risk (junk) form of savings or bank CDs; and in general they are all in the bond-like (lender/debtor) asset class. Simply tilting towards higher risk bond-like assets is not diversification, it's simply increased risk.

To be more precise, to be "diversification", the returns of an asset class compared to one that diversifies it in a portfolio should be uncorrelated. The returns on all bond-like instruments (savings accounts to personal loans) are highly correlated, and therefore you do not diversify a portfolio by mixing between them, you merely set a risk profile.

If you want higher risk, go for it, it's a perfectly legitimate investing tactic to seek higher rewards at higher risk. It is not, however, diversification.

Unormal fucked around with this message at 18:00 on Oct 5, 2014

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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baquerd posted:

The thing is, while the default rate is high, it is offset with the higher interest rates, and social lending allows you to invest in hundreds of loans ("diversifying") so that a dozen defaults don't hurt very much. This form of diversification lowers risk and volatility because individual loans are not correlated with other individual loans. A home owner in Illinois wanting money for home improvement does not correlate well with a debt consolidation loan in Florida, for example.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-yield_debt

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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baquerd posted:

Individual loans do not behave like corporate bonds. Individuals behave differently than corporations. For example, while the subprime mortgage crisis in your wikipedia article there was in full swing, social lending was taking off and delivering excellent returns.

Actually, corporate junk bonds during that exact time period (2008-2010) were posting stellar yields, because the lending risk was higher across the board. So yes, in fact they do behave like they are highly correlated with corporate bonds.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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baquerd posted:

You might have to walk me though how these charts are correlated.



Guess they're not! 8%-27% interest rates still makes them extremely risky, but if interest rates are that stable over long periods, then they look like they'd provide some diversification against a more volatile portfolio.

Comparative yield over time, scaled roughly correctly:



Lending tree default rates:



Compare to corporate high-yield bonds, which SPIKE to 10%:



Scale comparison:



So while they likely would bring some diversification (since it appears that personal loan default rates are fairly consistent over economic decisions for a given situation and credit score), they remain extremely risky investment vehicles. Only the class A personal loans have a risk profile like corporate high-yields, and you can see that the Class A personal loans are actually fairly correlated with high-yield bonds in terms of curve (though lower volatility with the presented data). The lower classes of personal loans are just extremely high risk bonds, with high yield along with extremely high default rates.

Unormal fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Oct 5, 2014

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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nwin posted:

Thanks in advance for any light you all can shed on this. Just want to make sure I'm setting myself up decent. And also, if what that guy is offering is actually good advice, I'd appreciate to hear that too.

This guy is a shill, run. Just read the books in the OP, they're still all totally relevant. I like Four Pillars!

There's no rush, investing is long, slow and boring. You're better off just spending the time getting educated at your leisure.

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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Fun Shoe

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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The funniest thing about this chart is that I can hand it to a homeless & unemployed guy and say "Hey, you're retired!"

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Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

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SiGmA_X posted:

This is how I feel. Eventually I plan to hold a single digit precent of net worth in well researched single stocks, doing a research/analyze, buy and hold strategy. I just don't have time for it now, so I go to mutual funds.

You (the general you) should probably never have time for this unless you're an actual stock-picking professional or *really* love stock picking as a very time-intensive hobby. In reality, you should just be investing any extra time in those amounts that you have in your actual profession/interests and investing those proceeds in the broad market.

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