Tricky Ed posted:

very

B-Nasty posted:

helpful

gvibes posted:

posts

Motronic posted:

itt

therobit posted:

I've looked at a lot of appraisals from Broomfield, although I've never been closer than a layover in the Denver Airport. It looks like a good deal price wise compared to everything I've seen.

Is this your first home? Focus on the structural stuff. The cosmetic poo poo can wait. I'm 7 years in and FINALLY going to renovate my kitchen and bath. But my house was a pile of poo poo to begin with and had a leaking roof and I had to reframe a wall and replace the soffits and fascia borders with no experience. My dad and I also ran ducts and added a furnace. Don't buy a pile of poo poo with no furnace.

A warning though: Colorado has a higher than reasonable rate of home price inflation and some lenders are pulling back on how much they will finance because of that. Same is true for Oregon and Washington and some other states though. If you can afford it and want to live there long term, go for it and don't try to time the market.

SchnorkIes posted:

I'm priced out but my wife won't let us move.

Edit: genuinely stressed if I'll be able to do my job safely for 4 months at sea knowing I'm plummeting out of the middle class for her sentimentality about living near friends and family. I only sleep a few hours a night and we fight about it constantly but she won't believe stories like yours and thinks we will be able to buy something.

Sirotan posted:

What the actual hell, I have never seen something like this before. It has to be hidden in that kitchen pantry, right?? 6 days on the market and already pending.

Residency Evil posted:

Are there any signs that the housing market may be slowing? I've been noticing that homes on the more expensive end seem to be sitting longer/cutting prices, sometimes by significant amounts. Presumably that's where the market begins to cool first?

Motronic posted:

You shouldn't be buying if staying only 5 years is any sort of real possibility.

Motronic posted:

Let's pretend 2% a year. Transaction costs of just the real estate agents eat the first three years. Mortgage origination, appraisals, recording, moving costs, etc are now eating into the next two years more or less, disproportionately more for less expensive homes.

Motronic posted:

This is true only if you believe your assertion that homes go up at 2% per year. My response was to entertain that suggestion to show how even with that it's not a great idea.

I do not think your assertion is realistic or predictable on a time scale of merely 5 years.

Motronic posted:

You're not understanding the important point here: 2% per year over a timeline of 5 years is basically an irresponsible thing to count on. That's not how these things work.

Also, 1% per year is a rough average which AGAIN requires a lot more than 5 years to start looking like a number that works.

You seem to be taking decades long trend numbers and convincing yourself that they can be equally divided annually, or at least over the course of half a decade. That's not how any of this works.

Motronic posted:

Timeline for what? Buying a home, or the other things you're talking about?

Buying a home would be the shortest I think. You're looking nearer to 10 years, but this is very market dependent, since all real estate is local. For 1% maintenance costs kind of things to work out? Longer. A lot longer. Because things like roof and HVAC replacements are a port of that, and those are much longer timleines than a decade.

Residency Evil posted:

She said (sellers of said house) apparently they had a previous inspection/quote for 100k+ in stucco repairs.

MorrisBae posted:

Motronic posted:

It's been all of THIRTY MINUTES since they posted that. Is this what "dipping" on a thread looks like now?

Motronic posted:

Oh no! They posted something that has started a conversation on a discussion forum! For shame!

pmchem posted:

yes.

you can get the raw data here for the complete timeline available: http://www.freddiemac.com/research/datasets/refinance-stats/index.page

the relevant data is on the "cash-out vol qtrly" tab. notably, one thing they did not plot was column "1. Total Cash-Out Dollars as a Percentage of Aggregate Refinanced Originations UPB", although they did plot every other data series from that tab.

as the size of the housing market has grown, just plotting those raw $billions numbers takes it out of the context of the larger market. column "1" shows that the percent cash-out has actually DECREASED from 2018 through 2020. and substantially, too: from ~22% to ~6%. contrast that to the GFC, where values went from ~10% in early 2004 to the 20's and 30's from 2005-2008.

the fact is, mortgage credit standards changed substantially post-GFC (see, for example (a)). and then when the pandemic hit, mortgage lenders tightened even more (b)
(a) https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/after-the-2008-crisis-mortgages-are-safer-but-tougher-to-come-by/
(b) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-08/mortgage-lenders-tighten-screws-on-u-s-credit-in-echo-of-2008

while the pandemic has caused credit problems, of course, some of the improved credit standards post-GFC are reflected in these FRED charts:
here, you see that mortgages as a percent of individuals' readily available cash is way improved since 2006-2008
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MDSP
and here, we see the HELOCs have been in a consistent downtrend since the GFC, and are basically at 2003 levels (in a much larger market today!)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHEACBM027NBOG

The Puppy Bowl posted:

How enforceable is a realtor exclusivity contract?

One of the realtors I met with was really attractive. Basically they're using an analytics drive approach and interchangeability of realtors within the company to try and exploit the inefficiency of limits on any individual realtors capacity for action. Also talked a lot about using their market share, about 20 transactions a month, to either pair us with another one of their sellers or put pressure on opposing real estate agents that don't want to jeopardize a relationship with a larger actor. Obviously that stuff favors them but I see how it could favor us as well. They talked a lot about the incentive for a realtor to do volume, and thus push through a sale even when it isn't in the buyers interest. In theory their volume in this hot market mitigates that desire because pushing us into a deal we back out of is the much bigger problem for them than postponing our making an offer.

All this is to say I liked their pitch but part of it was we have a system, we provide the power of that system to you, we don't want you to take that systemic knowledge, drop us, then use it to buy a home on your own or with someone else. Makes some sense but I despise the idea of signing an exclusivity contract. So, does anyone know how enforceable it would be if I just broke that contract clause if we're unhappy? I did something similar with a bullshit non-compete at an old job and my employer didn't even bother reaching out to me because they knew a court would never do anything about it. Plus it probably wouldn't be worth their legal fees.

The Puppy Bowl posted:

Best offer means different things to different people. Some want a rent back, some want no repairs, some want to sell to someone local, etc etc. If we share a realtor they know what both of our wants are and if it's possible to forge a win win. With the additional layer of communication barrier it's harder to figure out those connections.

An single realtor or team of two have a lot less man hours at their disposal than a team of 20. If my emergency conflicts with the funeral a realtor couple are attending I'm hosed. Bigger team reduces the likelihood of that happening. Pretty obvious value to me.

I should also mention this realtor was highly recommended to me by my union president after they helped him buy a house he's very happy with. He's very knowledgeable about markets and contracts so that carries more weight than the typical rec from a friend.

Residency Evil posted:

Denver's pretty hot, right?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/510-Garfield-St-Denver-CO-80206/13327840_zpid/

Guy has been trying to sell for 10 years. We're now at the exact same price it was listed for back in 2011.

stellers bae posted:

I've heard some people say this is a frothy market and it's why they're staying out (as buyers). I've heard others make the argument that, with the rapid inflation we've seen in many areas, getting into more real-estate and letting the loans inflate themselves away (to an extent) makes it smart to buy now even at high prices. Do either of these arguments make sense?

Motronic posted:

30-40 year old houses are largely teardowns or should be, and that's been the case forever.

GEMorris posted:

Buying a 20th century reproduction of an 18th century house just so I can drone on and on about the difference between simulation and simulacra at cocktail parties.

As a bit.

https://www.redfin.com/NC/Greensboro/3411-Gaston-Rd-27407/home/94688318

Inner Light posted:

Isn't 60% down a questionable decision when rates are this low, at least for min/maxing pedant goons? Although it does keep your monthly payment stupid low so your cash flow is higher.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

beware of YoY metrics - who was buying a house around 5/6/20?

aDecentCupOfTea posted:

I bought the first house I went to see in person- to view 20 houses in my budget in my area would likely take a year/18 months+

We did have a very small search radius we wanted to buy in- literally just two adjoining estates which definitely didn’t help with the availability of properties!

But, one month in and we are happy with our choice! Obviously your mileage may vary but looking at 20+ houses in a matter of days sounds exhausting and surely all of the houses meld together after seeing so many?

School of How posted:

I don't see why not. If I was a seller, and I got 20 offers, and the best offer a happened to be contingent on their other offers being rejected, then I'd might still accept that offer. Why wouldn't I? If two days later I get a message telling me the offer I accepted just got receded because another one of their offers got accepted, then I'll just accept the second best offer out of the 19 remaining. No skin off my back.

How is a "only if my other offers get rejected" contingency so much crazier than "only if my previous house gets sold" contingency or any other contingency?

moana posted:

If you are not maxing out other tax advantaged accounts, you should use the cash to do that rather than pay off a really low interest loan imo. I am on team "don't pay off your mortgage early" in today's environment.

Forget the monthly payment, look at the overall picture and opportunity cost. If you can invest that money, do you think it'll make you more than the 3% you're paying in interest?

Glumwheels posted:

I know, it’s not lost on us either but so far it hasn’t bitten us in the rear end because we’ve only lost deals due to not having the highest offer. When I saw that house closed Friday with a lower price than what we put on their neighbor’s house, that’s when I was irritated that it was either our indecision, the listing agent doing some fuckery, or our agent not pulling his weight to prevent the house from being sold out from under us like that. We’re giving him probably to the end of this week and then if we have to he can list our place and we’ll go with the agent who’s selling homes like crazy in the neighborhood we want to buy in.

GEMorris posted:

New electrical panel to replace a federal pacific one and bring it up to code? 5k, carbon fiber straps to reinforce the basement walls? 12k, entirely new hvac system because the current one is starting to fail and was poorly designed on top of that?

stellers bae posted:

I've got a chunk of cash from selling my last house and I'm watching, bemusedly, as it inflates away into nothing. It should have been worth 20% of any home we were looking at, but now we're at the point where it's baaarely there due to increasing housing prices.

I'm torn, it felt like this in 2015 when I bought my last house (haha, it was nothing like this), and I'm so loving glad we just YOLO'd in and lived in a place we loved and made cash doing it. Something's clearly hosed with the market now but frantically tossing my cash into a departing boat like a stupid tourist seems like the right thing to do instead of just keeping it in savings and potentially buying a cheeseburger with it in 2030. Any thoughts?

stellers bae posted:

nah. if i bought in denver in 2006 i'd still be way, way up by now.

if it's not inflation, what's the word for 'i'm paying a lot more for everything now, the fed says it's going to get more expensive in the future, and i'm at the cusp of not being able to afford a house with my current down payment'

laxbro posted:

LOL this is comical and something I haven't really looked into as a millennial that is new to RE.

3% Interest: $3,204 PITI for 750k home (assuming 1% prop tax and 50/month insurance with 20% down payments)
7% Interest $4,666 PITI for 750k home (assuming 1% prop tax and 50/month insurance with 20% down payments)
15% Interest $8,261 PITI for 750k home (assuming 1% prop tax and 50/month insurance with 20% down payments)

If rising rates actually depress home prices then this will be good for us since we push most of our savings into tax advantaged accounts so our cash reserve is relatively modest for the area where we would like to buy. In any case we're going to start looking at homes at the beginning of 2022 - with the hope of buying summer 2022.

Tyro posted:

Hell yeah sounds like I bought at the peak.

We are closing next week!