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Christobevii3 posted:Silver is almost slapped back to being 14, like i like her... Au/Ag Ratio is almost 70 oh god  CDE results were pretty awful in 3Q09, and I think the fact that they've continued drilling and development of Kensington is going to hurt them in the 4Q results as well. Although once that comes online later this year its an additional 120,000 oz/y of gold into revenue after ramp up, and they just announced the discovery of a new mineralized system. Now that I think of it, why aren't I long on CDE while I've got the chance.
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Feb 5, 2010 02:21
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PsychoAndy posted:to add to this, i don't trade fx, but it seems like simple TA stuff can be applied, like support/resistance. Currently google finance shows EURUSD at 1.3866. So if you look at the last time EURUSD was this low, back in June/July 09, if it were to go lower you would see support at 1.3851, and then 1.3787. If EURUSD breaks 1.37, next stop would probably be 1.3671 to 1.3474, as shown in May. Obviously if you're trading a lot with a notional value of $100k, the pips add up. Just wanted to say excellent post.  Also wanted to contribute. They're really cutting back on that leverage. New CFTC proposal is 10:1. It's unreal. Gonna put the bucketshops out of business if they do that. What started the USD rally was when the US ended their liquidity swaps back in October. Also, the carry trade is blowing up big time. They're short dollars and long the high interest EUR. What's surprising is that equities haven't declined more. Either the big money thinks that US equity is now the "safe bet" or (my guess) is that we're in for a very big tumble. Option 3 is that i'm just completely incorrect and there's another driving force behind this (which is what happens the majority of the time :P ) Mokhu fucked around with this message at 02:53 on Feb 5, 2010 |
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Feb 5, 2010 02:34
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destructo posted:I don't see what's so complicated here unless you're planning on shorting a massive amount of stock at one time. ahaha... I am doing this. buy to cover is going to be.... fun
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Feb 5, 2010 02:38
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Now we're watching the EUR/USD here. Critical point. VERY tight stop and great R:R anything over 1.3690 is a buy. Stop @ 1.3675. Bullish 1 and 5 min. Going to push the hourly higher as well and show strength into the 8 CT close. COULD be a major bottom (Huge ATM)
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Feb 5, 2010 02:42
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Christobevii3 posted:Silver is almost slapped back to being 14, like i like her... Whats your opinion on gold?
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Feb 5, 2010 02:53
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Darkmage posted:Now we're watching the EUR/USD here. Critical point. VERY tight stop and great R:R anything over 1.3690 is a buy. Stop @ 1.3675. Bullish 1 and 5 min. Going to push the hourly higher as well and show strength into the 8 CT close. COULD be a major bottom (Huge ATM) Hi all. I'm Darkmage's friend. I just joined and wanted to say 'hi'. I've been trading for about 11 years. Quite a few of those I lost money. Learned a lot though. Traded options, equity futures, stocks, (day-traded below the 25k min through a non-NASD member hehe), and forex. Was never profitable on futures or daytrading, although I haven't been back to them in 3-4 years. About to get into it again so maybe this can be my fresh start. Read over the board and wanted to contribute. Plus he got a free mug from somewhere on this site and I could always use a new mug.  Oh, also. Analysis-----TA is great. FA is great and there's great approaches to both. TA however is VERY strict and that's what most traders don't learn at first. Lastly, i'm here to learn so can't wait to I would also assume he'd want to move that stop to 1.3685. Unlimited profit and risk is only 15 pips. In addition, you'd also reverse on a break of that level and go short.
Limit Up fucked around with this message at 03:29 on Feb 5, 2010 |
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Feb 5, 2010 03:26
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Darkmage posted:Now we're watching the EUR/USD here. Critical point. VERY tight stop and great R:R anything over 1.3690 is a buy. Stop @ 1.3675. Bullish 1 and 5 min. Going to push the hourly higher as well and show strength into the 8 CT close. COULD be a major bottom (Huge ATM) Why do you talk like CNBC just gave you 10 seconds of air time.
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Feb 5, 2010 03:41
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Whats your opinion on gold? I dont like gold because its in the news in ads constantly. I'd rather play silver because of that and industrial uses too if the economy recovers. I really honestly just use it to go between cash or hard metal for my non vested money depending on the value of the dollar. I've been all cash for 2 months pretty much now. Just looking at silver again soon to sit in.
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Feb 5, 2010 03:48
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quote:I've gotten some really nice returns on shorting stocks on investopedia's simulator but I'm just wondering if that's actually possible in the real market, it just seems too easy to find a plunging stock. This is pretty much just a psychological bias. Some plunging stocks will have shorting disabled, for various reasons, but otherwise it's the same as going long - but with a negative sign (ignoring other things like dividends and declaring shorts).
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Feb 5, 2010 03:49
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Limit Up posted:Was never profitable on futures or daytrading, although I haven't been back to them in 3-4 years. About to get into it again so maybe this can be my fresh start. Yeah the success rate for futures daytrading just isn't there. You can probably just skip it and save some cash...
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Feb 5, 2010 03:59
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whalesneedlove posted:Why do you talk like CNBC just gave you 10 seconds of air time. Well, you could always turn off your TV.  I'll post up a chart for ya though to show what he's referring to. Hopefully that's ok. It better explains it
Limit Up fucked around with this message at 04:06 on Feb 5, 2010 |
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Feb 5, 2010 04:03
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Limit Up posted:Well, you could always turn off your TV. I know what he is talking about. I was talking about his phrasing and word choice.
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Feb 5, 2010 04:14
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whalesneedlove posted:I know what he is talking about. I was talking about his phrasing and word choice. haha oh. Yeah the trading talk. I think he'll probably have to cut that crap out. Good point. But here's a chart anyways. Works pretty good. Switched to a 5 min chart this was a VERY high probability trade using technical analysis. *** The point is I know a lot of guys on here (based on the previous 700 page thread) were iffy about technical trading. Well this is just to show that if you feel like wasting several years of your life you can get pretty decent at it. *** It DOES work . Doesn't always end up like this, but this was a REAL TIME example (albeit 1) of a profitable trade. So far +30 pips with a 15 pip stop. 2:1 risk reward. The post was at 7:41 Central Time. 
Limit Up fucked around with this message at 04:33 on Feb 5, 2010 |
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Feb 5, 2010 04:28
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For new guys, I'd also like to contribute to the broker section. I've traded through several (I have issues) so if anyones got any questions let me know. I've been where everyone is and a helping hand is always nice. List is: MBTrading for options. Zecco for options and stocks Scottrade for stocks RML for daytrading Tradevisions for daytrading Etrade (managed acct) Izone (Ameritrade) for stocks Think or swim. Global Futures for futures. FXCM for forex (yes a bucketshop) There's a couple more I don't remember I think. ThinkorSwim is great btw. If you're interested in hearing a squak from the pits download their desktop and then you can hear the live audio (it's fun to listen to if you're hardcore haha). They recently added it. Favorite are probably Scottrade for their real-time quotes, MB for their comissions, and Zecco for their option analytics. Limit Up fucked around with this message at 04:45 on Feb 5, 2010 |
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Feb 5, 2010 04:42
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Limit Up posted:haha oh. Yeah the trading talk. I think he'll probably have to cut that crap out. Good point. You showed nothing in your picture or post. You just showed a chart and drew a circle around your entry and drew a line to where price is now. I dont doubt that you are up 30 pips but you didnt show any technical analysis. Why did you enter, why do you have a 15 pip trailing stop, where is your profit target? Just so we are clear, I'm not looking for you to prove to me that TA works or whatever. I believe in pure forms of TA (SR, some trend line techniques, some candle patterns, etc).
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Feb 5, 2010 04:46
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whalesneedlove posted:You showed nothing in your picture or post. You just showed a chart and drew a circle around your entry and drew a line to where price is now. I dont doubt that you are up 30 pips but you didnt show any technical analysis. Why did you enter, why do you have a 15 pip trailing stop, where is your profit target? Oh sorry about that. I wasn't sure how much detail posters here care to see. Yeah actually pure form is exactly what will make you the consistent money. What you listed is going to be the stuff that will work year after year. It never changes. I got caught up in a lot of the garbage but some of it is great. Two things I will add to it are channels and pivot points. Channels are a must as well. Pivot points are great for short-term trading and there are a lot of whales who use them. Channels can go long and short term. That trade itself was a very basic trade off of support. The entry itself was on a breakout above a key level. I'll post up some pictures of the setup and explain the trade from the 1 hr chart straight down to the 1 min chart, however I don't know how things work here and I don't want to clog up this thread with a lot of pictures. (i'm new here and don't want to upset anyone) PM me if you're interested.
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Feb 5, 2010 05:13
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Limit Up posted:Hi all. I'm Darkmage's friend. How long did you do futures/active trading before stopping? Toyota. I'm guessing they're getting it all out now that they're already getting screwed but dang. I thought the 28/29th would be the day it bottomed out, but it looks like it's still got a ways to go now even if they keep out of the headlines for a bit. Umph fucked around with this message at 06:32 on Feb 5, 2010 |
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Feb 5, 2010 06:20
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Umph posted:Hey man welcome to the forums Thanks! I appreciate it. Happy to be here. Futures I actually traded on 2 separate occasions about 4 years ago. It was about a year a piece so about 2 years total I traded. It was rough. Lost money like crazy the first year. 2nd year I started off very well (developed a strategy for it) however when the strategy failed I had zero risk management for it so I blew that out as well. Took a little longer though. Toyota's a funny story. This is where it could get nasty. The government owns a majority stake in GM and domestic auto sales have been slow in general. I have a feeling the government is going to take this to the next level (with the investigation) and really pin Toyota for all they're worth. The idea behind that would be to smear the name, get all of the dirt out on them and hopefully boost domestic auto sales in the process. Just a guess . Not something I really feel like playing personally. Gonna be fun to see how it works out though.
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Feb 5, 2010 09:42
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Welcome to the forum Limit Up -- I love your attitude. I think in the hundreds of pages of the old thread and the few pages of the new one, you're the first one I've seen admitting to some consistent losses (while I'm sure that 90% of the people have the same experience, just don't like to admit it). Serious question for you though--you've been trading for 11 years, and just joined a forum to learn about it now?
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Feb 5, 2010 16:02
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Christobevii3 posted:I dont like gold because its in the news in ads constantly. I'd rather play silver because of that and industrial uses too if the economy recovers. I really honestly just use it to go between cash or hard metal for my non vested money depending on the value of the dollar. I've been all cash for 2 months pretty much now. Just looking at silver again soon to sit in. I shorted silver around 16.50, and just covered 2/3rds of my short in silver at 15.07 yesterday, because I wasn't sure how today would go. I agree that it's time to start looking at silver for a buy, but you do not want to be catching falling knives. When crude broke 50 back in 08 I went long via leveraged ETFs, since it's clearly ridiculous that CL could drop below 50 bucks a barrel. Wrong. Try 35. Also silver is the completely ridiculous overleveraged version of gold. It might have more industrial use but the moves are usually 2x-3x more than gold. Look at yesterday; GLD drops 3%, SLV drops 6%. It's insanity. MrBigglesworth posted:Whats the deal on silver when buying in a coin store. A few years back when it was around 11ish I wanted to buy some, but they had this "Ill sell it to you for $4 over spot, making it $15/ounce. Coin dealers need to get paid somehow but they rip everyone off, just like those cash for gold people. For example, my brother decided to go to the mall "cash for gold" kiosk (not affiliated with the telemarketing one) and asked for poo poo and giggles how much they'd bid him for a krugerrand. The guy starts BSing and is like "Well since the krugerrand isn't 24k i'll give you 600 for it". Of course, even though they're 22k, they still have a total gold content of 1 oz, which would be worth closer to a grand. I'm sure you could find a decent one, but generally unless you know a guy, most pawn shops/coin dealers will try and sucker you if they think you're ignorant or if you're not buying 50oz of silver at a time. BTW, at the jeweler I go to, he generally charges spot+ 50 to 100 bucks for 1oz gold coin, depending on who you are. Even if you were buying, say, 50 oz of gold, it would still have a premium of 50 bucks/oz, since everyone needs to make money and you have to factor in shipping and whatnot. I think even ebay might be a little more cost effective, although I managed to find some lady with a bunch of auctions selling various 1oz assortments of pre-64 US silver coins for 20-25 bucks plus shipping. If you really want to buy physical silver, I would go through a reputable website and buy in bulk to save money.
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Feb 5, 2010 17:05
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Probably a stupid question, but when looking at the new accounts section for e-trade and TD Ameritrade I noticed it says you have to have employer information. What does one use if unemployed?
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Feb 5, 2010 18:10
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Now I'm pissed at myself for covering my short in silver. For some reason I had it in my head that 15 was decent support for silver; totally wrong. Live and learn I guess. I did, however, add a short EURUSD position which is looking quite nice. However I'm kinda wondering why GBPUSD is lower percentagewise vs EURUSD, I don't think anything weird happened in the UK. Maybe I'm just reading way too much into 20 basis points. amitlu posted:Probably a stupid question, but when looking at the new accounts section for e-trade and TD Ameritrade I noticed it says you have to have employer information. What does one use if unemployed? You could not put it, or make something up. As long as you're not applying for margin and thus need to show that you have some sort of cash flow in case you get called, I don't think anyone actually cares about employment history so much as they care that you have cash to deposit. I hope you're not trying to daytrade with savings instead of looking for a job or anything crazy like that.
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Feb 5, 2010 20:12
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Even buying in Bulk on Apmex.com seems like a ripoff. Some silver stuff there is showing "2.49 over/per" so to buy it right now in bulk like this listing "20 - 99 for $17.89 ea" to make a profit Silver would have to get over $18 an ounce again. And they sure as gently caress wont pay you anything "over" spot price when buying back.
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Feb 5, 2010 20:26
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Limit Up posted:Oh sorry about that. I wasn't sure how much detail posters here care to see. you don't seem to have PM setup on your account, but feel free to explain (w/ pictures (feel free to send me a PM)
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Feb 5, 2010 21:47
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Yeah eBay is actually the cheapest place to buy (and sell) bullion unless you're buying very large quantities. Sometimes, if you're really lucky, you're even able to snag some coins for below bullion value.
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Feb 5, 2010 21:48
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whalesneedlove posted:I dont doubt that you are up 30 pips but you didnt show any technical analysis. Why did you enter, why do you have a 15 pip trailing stop, where is your profit target? My profit target can be arbitrary. Typically the ideal way is to exit and reverse the same way you got in. I only know 1 trader who does that and he's probably one of the best traders i've ever met in my life. I'm not anywhere near that good. I typically add to a profitable position and then scalp it off either in 1/3's or 1/2's of the position. Kind of depends on the entry. Other traders like to simply be all in or all out and get in and then trail it up until the stop is it (let the market take them out). I like the 1/2 and 1/2 rule because 1/2 my exit is based on price and then the other half is based on time. Time being a certain set amount of time I expect the trade to take. I determine this through a set of cycles I developed for trading the market. HURST is another example of trading cycles. He's a rocket scientist who was hired to crack the market. Great read but I haven't taken the time to figure out how to apply it to daytrading. (works good for swing trading though). I eventually developed me own. Don Wrigley posted:Welcome to the forum Limit Up -- I love your attitude. I think in the hundreds of pages of the old thread and the few pages of the new one, you're the first one I've seen admitting to some consistent losses (while I'm sure that 90% of the people have the same experience, just don't like to admit it). Thank you. haha yup, i'm not perfect and more than willing to admit where i'm wrong and what kind of mistakes i've made (it's part of the game). Quite honestly my learning curve took a little longer and I don't think I could have ever been consistent and confident (currently) had I not met a mentor. That's a good question. I'm always willing to learn, see new ideas, interesting sites etc. Keeps it fun. I typically only trade the technicals for currencies so I like hearing other people's ideas toward things....keeps me from having a rigid bias on market direction. Also, I like being up to date on the news/big events happening that I may have missed. PsychoAndy posted:Now I'm pissed at myself for covering my short in silver. For some reason I had it in my head that 15 was decent support for silver; totally wrong. Live and learn I guess. Just curious, I may have missed it but are you shorting physical or through the ETF? (SLV) Not a bad cover btw. Gonna pop Monday it looks like. GBP/USD has much wider swings than the EUR/USD I prefer to trade that personally for that reason alone, however the big one is the EUR/USD. Nearly everyone trades that. It's like the S&P of currencies.
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Feb 5, 2010 23:58
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Limit Up, I find your posting extremely interesting, any recommendations on any other forums that might be filled with your style of postings? Any good starting points for a beginning swing trader? Thanks
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Feb 6, 2010 00:10
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Andy I completely understand. No catching knives, just wait for the trend in the dollar to turn and silver to move up a little for a week or two type deal.
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Feb 6, 2010 00:24
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Does anyone have anything to say about trading with Schwab? I have them for their checking account, but I was looking at starting to trade through my One account. Should I take my trades elsewhere?
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Feb 6, 2010 00:25
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Limit Up posted:HURST is another example of trading cycles. He's a rocket scientist who was hired to crack the market. Great read but I haven't taken the time to figure out how to apply it to daytrading. (works good for swing trading though). I eventually developed me own. "Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" was definitely one of the most informative trading books I've read, I highly recommend it as well. I developed my system using moving averages and Bollinger Bands in a manner similar to his envelopes.
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Feb 6, 2010 00:56
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destructo posted:Limit Up, I find your posting extremely interesting, any recommendations on any other forums that might be filled with your style of postings? Any good starting points for a beginning swing trader? Thanks Thanks. Elitetrader.com. That site is good, but to find gold nuggets on that site you have to look for reliable posters. They're few and far between. The most creative on there is 'yoohoo'. Some of the threads he participated in were excellent. He shares a lot of basic info from the ground up. Elovemer (sp?) for his channels, you can get a good idea on the basics. Just remember to take it 1 step at a time. I hopped right in years ago and lost a lot of discipline in the beginning. It cost me a lot of money, and time to right, the wrongs I made.Traders-talk.com is good too. SilenOne on there is super with the cycles. They've also got a lot of creative technical ideas and they're helpful as well. Investorshub.com contains a lot of active traders however it's hard to find a lot of basics. Sgomez858 on youtube. Him and Andy profitably daytrade. Andy is VERY good and consistent. You can learn a lot just from watching his screen while he trades in those youtube videos. He uses very tight stops, adds to only profitable positions the majority of the time, and typically lets winners run (however he does scalp a lot as well). Side note: They started that service after they got a lot of interest in the youtube videos. They turned it into a business and cut back on the videos unfortunately. Still worth taking a look for beginning traders. The thing is that moving averages don't always get respected by price. He simply keeps stops tight and either the price level holds or he's out. That risk management is KEY to consistency and profits. I will share this, there's a lot stuff/basics online about technical analysis. DEFINATELY combine them with fundamentals. Your opinion matters. The problem is that you need to use technicals for entries so that you can control risk. The TA stuff is too lenient with entries and stops. What you want to do is you want to develop a strategy. Hope this helps! GET MONEY posted:"Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" was definitely one of the most informative trading books I've read, I highly recommend it as well. I developed my system using moving averages and Bollinger Bands in a manner similar to his envelopes. Great to hear! Yup, MA's can really do a lot. Crossovers, S&R, etc. They're a very useful tool. Hurst is dynamite. Very technical though and some of the stuff he went through I just couldn't rack my brain with anymore. I can't imagine what he used to come up with some of those ideas. There's still a lot of the strategy that may have been altered it seems and the FLD's really throw me for a loop. In addition, and I'm not sure if this was true, but apparently a lot of the work wasn't released. An important part was also the compounding though. I Limit Up fucked around with this message at 02:00 on Feb 6, 2010 |
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Feb 6, 2010 01:42
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Limit Up, Please don't stop posting in this thread. The peasants love you! You easily win best new goon for 2010, so far.
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Feb 6, 2010 02:01
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Limit Up posted:Just curious, I may have missed it but are you shorting physical or through the ETF? (SLV) Not a bad cover btw. Gonna pop Monday it looks like. SLV 4 lyfe. I'm pretty small time, it works for me. However, at 13:30 today I expected people to buy the dip when the spx hit 1045, but i didn't expect THAT much buying. Crazy trading day. MrBigglesworth posted:Even buying in Bulk on Apmex.com seems like a ripoff. Can I ask you why you want physical silver? From what you just said it seems like you want to buy physical product, and then sell it for spot when silver hits, say, 20 bucks. Much easier to buy the ETF than trading physical silver. Or hell, I just looked on ebay at junk silver coins. A roll of quarters ($10 face value/40 quarters/7.2 oz silver) is going for anywhere between 115-140 on ebay, plus shipping. So basically between 16-18 bucks/oz depending on auction. Which, considering the small quantity, is actually pretty good, compared to northwest territorial mint's price of 16.84/oz for 72 ounces of US silver coin. (http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver.php).
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Feb 6, 2010 03:02
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Hey technical analysis. I used to believe in that. I hope all the fundamental guys aren't scared off. I like hearing from them.
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Feb 6, 2010 03:14
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Death to the chart people! Death! Well, maybe that's a little harsh, but I like being a fundamental guy.
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Feb 6, 2010 03:45
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Can't we all get along? Both forms of analysis have their place. I rely mostly on fundamental analysis, but at the same time, like to use technical analysis to try and time the buying and selling. Of course, absolute nirvana comes when both the FA and TA agree at the same time. No matter what your trading discipline, there will always be times you stop and consider the other side, if for no other reason, just as a sanity check.
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Feb 6, 2010 03:51
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Jreedy88 posted:Does anyone have anything to say about trading with Schwab? I have them for their checking account, but I was looking at starting to trade through my One account. Should I take my trades elsewhere? If you're an active trader Interactive Brokers might be better. I think they have better share availability for shorting. If you're just doing 20 stock trades a year or whatever Schwab is serviceable and probably easier to go with them as I believe you can do transfers from checking/trading account and so forth without any hassle and the commission difference would be rather negligible.
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Feb 6, 2010 04:03
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PsychoAndy posted:SLV 4 lyfe. I'm pretty small time, it works for me. However, at 13:30 today I expected people to buy the dip when the spx hit 1045, but i didn't expect THAT much buying. Crazy trading day. Physical doesnt matter, I have never looked into an ETF so I dont know what to look for in that. Basically I want to treat Silver like a stock. Buy at $13-$14ish, sell if it hits $17 or higher. Whether it is physical or electronic makes no never mind to me. Just checked out SLV on Scottrade, IShares Silver Trust Fund? Guess I could do something like that. MrBigglesworth fucked around with this message at 04:27 on Feb 6, 2010 |
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Feb 6, 2010 04:24
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LactoseO.D.'d posted:Hey technical analysis. I used to believe in that. Nothing wrong with fundamentals. You can do a lot with that too. You have potentially 3 models you may want. 1 for value 1 for growth 1 for speculation (biotech, new technology, etc) Fundamentals have an issue with dilution, unregistered sales of securities, preferred shares, macroeconomic growth trends, etc. Value investing is simple. That is the only area of investing I can trade and nearly reduce risk to 0. The only risk is market liquidity. When the market crashed there were companies out there trading at levels I refer to as "fundamental arbitrage". IMO...Growth is built on GDP (inflation as well) and also built-in premiums. You need to discover whether those premiums are undervalued or overvalued compared to the sector/industry. Basic fundamental question: P/E....how many people here use that as a gauge? Everyone says it does work/doesn't work and no one knows why some companies have high p/e's and why some don't. It's junk unless you know how to use it. Has anyone figured it out? What P/E is based on. I have a DEFINITE answer for this and I'd love to hear from the fundamental guys on this. Not calling you out, but just want you to know that if you're going to do fundamentals, you're going to have to have GOOD rules for this as well. Not cookie-cutter ratios. I like fundamentals and can go all day on that as well Limit Up fucked around with this message at 04:37 on Feb 6, 2010 |
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Feb 6, 2010 04:31
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Buying and selling physical metals is for numismatists, or people who want to hold the physical metal for a very long time, and probably leave it as inheritance to their heirs. If you want to trade metals, stick to futures, ETF's, and miners.
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Feb 6, 2010 04:33
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