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Opinions on ALGT? They look like they are putting up some good numbers but the short interest is awfully high... What am I missing?
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Feb 11, 2010 03:27
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whalesneedlove posted:As long as you realize you are gambling and not investing. Yeah, but at least casinos give better odds. Also, I wanted to post http://go.skygrid.com/ . Investopedia uses it for their news and I clicked it on a whim the other day. It's basically an RSS feed for news related to your stocks, indexes, whatever. I've found it useful, thought maybe some people here would as well.
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Feb 11, 2010 05:04
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LactoseO.D.'d posted:Opinions on ALGT? They look like they are putting up some good numbers but the short interest is awfully high... What am I missing? I hadn't looked into them until just now but...yah, they look decent to someone who's spent 10 minutes looking at Reuters and MarketWatch. I can't explain the continued short interest; they have been getting killed since the beginning of November but they keep piling on. It's a thinly traded name, though, with fairly high vol because of that. Doesn't help that options on it are nearly non-existent. I'm also wary of "leisure travel" at this moment, particularly when it's a relatively expensive stock. The chart looks good. If it closes above $53.50 it could run up another $3.00. Nice thing about a stock off only 10% from its 52-week high is that you at least know where the shorts are. Unfortunate thing is that you know where the shorts are and may have to watch them bat you down regularly. It's listed as "hard to borrow" in thinkorswim so hopefully the latter won't be a problem for you.
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Feb 11, 2010 05:14
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Any opinion on Marc Fabers comments that the bail out of greece will create a snowball effect in Europe and their currency/debt that will soon spill over to the US? The effects of this could literally occur next week on the Euro...
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Feb 11, 2010 05:43
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Duey posted:Yeah, but at least casinos give better odds. Yeah, but like card counting you can put the odds in your favor. Market timing is one way of doing this. You'll overcome Theta. If anyone is online right now I can give you a live example via currencies. You battle Vega by charting the option itself or IV. Now combine this with a direction. The trick is that you need reasonably tight stops and plenty of discipline. Especially if you're playing front-month. Careful playing these into the weekend. Everyone says they're discounted on Friday, but until someone shows me proof if this I will RARELY play front month through the weekend anymore. Lost too much doing this. Leaps are different. There's plenty of slack there. EDIT: Ok potential reversal point on the GBP/USD comes @ approx 12:50 - 12:55 CT. This move should come from the lows. If it's not it could be a potentially inverted cycle. 1.5617ish buy point Limit Up fucked around with this message at 07:28 on Feb 11, 2010 |
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Feb 11, 2010 07:23
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Ugly shot of what i'm trading update: waiting for a confirmation (none yet) but here's the idea. Timing is right now (12:58)  Update 2 1st trade failed. Stopped @ about 28 -~pip. 2nd trade so far was a gain off the 17 level (1 pip off) The idea is with tight stops and accurate orders you will not only be consistent but you will never blow out.  Limit Up fucked around with this message at 08:28 on Feb 11, 2010 |
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Feb 11, 2010 07:40
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Christobevii3 posted:Any opinion on Marc Fabers comments that the bail out of greece will create a snowball effect in Europe and their currency/debt that will soon spill over to the US? Dr. Doom  If Germany backstops Greece which is seeming pretty likely I see the Euro bouncing next week on another short squeeze but then sliding to 1.36 as specs focus on the moral hazard aspect and the impact this has on the recovery for the more stable EU countries. All of this seems dollar positive to me though, but I guess if the dollar gets too strong there's a danger the carry trades might unwind further? I don't see how the contagion would spread to the US though.@Limit Up, I'm watching GBP/USD too tonight but I don't see it going too far past 1.5659 which is Monday's high and a 23% retracement of the leg down from Feb 3rd. Might touch 1.57 again but I think the upside looks weak considering the EU situation and the BoE outlook yesterday. I'm hoping to capture a slide back to Monday's low around 1.5535 after this bounce from 1.56, and if it takes that out I have a downside target of 1.54 by the end of the week. edit: I trade off the H1/M15 chart though so I'm going after the bigger moves
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Feb 11, 2010 08:03
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You can't learn what you need to know about a company in 10 minutes. It takes at least half an hour. Allegiant doesn't engage in hedging of its jet fuel requirements, which is a bold move on their parts since it's a bit under 1/3 of their operating costs this year and about half of their costs last year. In fact, savings in fuel costs is essentially equal to their operating earnings growth versus last year, although that relationship does not hold true for earlier years. The leisure travel situation mentioned by the other poster does not give confidence, what with people not having a lot of money for leisure and with Las Vegas and Orlando representing more than half of their flights and both being big on economic troubles and foreclosures. I also note that over the last nine months the company purchased a good $106 million in short-term investments (financial instruments), and now holds $74 million of state and other municipal obligations, and the majority of their total investment holdings falls due between 2010 and 2013, a period future economists may be calling the Great Municipal Bankruptcy Wave. Although the company is authorized to engage in share buybacks, it is not using this money to declare a dividend and, let's face it, their shareholders know where municipal and Treasury bonds are sold, so why would they pay the management to buy them instead? Ironically, a big fat special dividend is what would probably shake some of the shorts off. I wouldn't short this company, but I'm not sure about buying it either. Fuel cost savings produce growth once but not on an ongoing basis, and I don't know what the price of oil will do or whether the price of jet fuel can be passed on to their customers (since some of their competitors do hedge (but they claim to have very little competition on their direct routes (but no doubt more competition on other routes to their destinations))).
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Feb 11, 2010 09:48
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GET MONEY posted:Dr. Doom He talked about how Greece is much smaller than someone like California who is a larger economy and unable to service their debt. Once people use the same fundamentals to run away from Greece and look at running to the dollar as just as flawed it will create the same currency push down. He's basically saying any country with higher than serviceable debt to gdp ratios will all default.
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Feb 11, 2010 13:37
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Christobevii3 posted:He talked about how Greece is much smaller than someone like California who is a larger economy and unable to service their debt. Once people use the same fundamentals to run away from Greece and look at running to the dollar as just as flawed it will create the same currency push down. He's basically saying any country with higher than serviceable debt to gdp ratios will all default. So I guess all the largest economies in the world are kaput. What currency does that leave you with when the pound, euro, yen, and dollar are all in danger of default? Those currencies are over 85% of the world's reserve currency base. Faber sees the danger, but he doesn't see that there is a lack of alternative.
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Feb 11, 2010 16:13
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Hobologist posted:You can't learn what you need to know about a company in 10 minutes. It takes at least half an hour. Guess I should spend more time in the 10Q and less going through old headlines. Thanks Hobo. I was looking ALGT and DNDN last night. DNDN has horrible financials and but can't stop rallying. Apparently they have a cancer vaccine in FDA stage 3 with estimated sales of $500M to $1B. If that came to fruition it would have a similar multiple to PFE or MRK, which IMO means its relatively overvalued -but there is no way to play that.
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Feb 11, 2010 16:38
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I invested in POT http://www.potashcorp.com/ Fertilizer, everyone needs to eat right?
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Feb 11, 2010 18:08
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11b1p posted:I invested in POT http://www.potashcorp.com/ Fertilizer, everyone needs to eat right? It's also a component of explosives and ammunition. The soldiers need to blow poo poo up and shoot, right?
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Feb 11, 2010 22:02
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POT has a P/E of 34. Go with Compass Minerals (CMP) instead. They make potash AND salt. Everyone likes salt, don't they?
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Feb 11, 2010 22:28
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LactoseO.D.'d posted:Guess I should spend more time in the 10Q and less going through old headlines. Thanks Hobo. ALGT isn't a doomed company; just an overpriced one. If you take 2008 as the "correct" level of jet fuel prices they have a P/E ratio of about 30. I think the shorts' main theme is a growth company that's hit the growth ceiling, and buying bonds instead of airplanes isn't really helping the company's case. I like shorts, but there are plenty of worse (better) candidates out there.
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Feb 11, 2010 22:30
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Hobologist posted:and the majority of their total investment holdings falls due between 2010 and 2013, a period future economists may be calling the Great Municipal Bankruptcy Wave. Do you have a source on this? I would be interested in reading more about it.
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Feb 12, 2010 01:05
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11b1p posted:I invested in POT http://www.potashcorp.com/ Fertilizer, everyone needs to eat right? I'm curious, did you do research into this or did you just buy it on the idea that "Everyone has to eat"? Because when I look at POT, I personally see one of the most overvalued companies out there right now... a trailing PE of over 30, a forward P/E of 15 (which seems absurdly optimistic to me, considering the company guided for $4-5 in 2010), and a price/book of nearly 5, not much cash and plenty of debt. What attracts you to POT at this price? I admit I don't have any understanding of why people would value a fertilizer company like its the next Google, but I'm curious to know. This is an old school company that has been around for a *long* time and for some reason in the past 5 years or so the market has decided it is some kind of spectacular and unique growth stock, rather than a stock in an admittedly hot commodity space. greasyhands fucked around with this message at 02:13 on Feb 12, 2010 |
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Feb 12, 2010 01:22
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TheChimney posted:Do you have a source on this? I would be interested in reading more about it. Source? Lots of state governments are feeling the squeeze, particularly since many of them are required by the state Constitution to run a balanced budget every year. And since the public seems to have bailout fatigue, it is a big ask to get the federal government to step in and make good a significant portion of their deficits. As a result, the worst-case scenario is that states become much worse places to live, which further depresses their tax revenues, etc., touching off a vicious cycle.
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Feb 12, 2010 02:14
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greasyhands posted:This is an old school company that has been around for a *long* time and for some reason in the past 5 years or so the market has decided it is some kind of spectacular and unique growth stock, rather than a stock in an admittedly hot commodity space. Because during the build-up to '08, the price of potash went through the roof, and Potash Corp of Saskatchewan controls a ludicrous share of the potash supply (Canada having roughly 75% of worldwide production capacity). Demand has been down for the past two years though, and several majors are moving into potash mining now (BHP is the only one I can think of off-hand), so the supply-demand fundamentals are going to be pretty screwed up for the next few years. I don't quite think POT is a great investment. Now lithium on the other hand; lithium is a pretty tight market with most production in Russia/East Asia. I told Christobevii3 my picks yesterday for domestic lithium hopefuls (WLC, EFG, and CLQ) with the intent of buying tomorrow morning at open. EFG shot up 20% right before close. Pfft. (Full disclosure: I'm a supply-side mining analyst and I don't work for any of these companies.)
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Feb 12, 2010 03:06
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I am hoping it gets to around $130-135 a share by august or so. I chose it because I think China will be importing mass quantities, with no slow down in sight. Edit: I bought 10 shares the other day. I am a brine shrimp in your economic ocean. Here to learn 11b1p fucked around with this message at 04:35 on Feb 12, 2010 |
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Feb 12, 2010 04:32
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Any comments on China's reserve ration hiked? If history has shown us anything is that too much growth in too short of a time can end really badly. I am wondering if they are trying to regulate it so they don't have an eventual crash. That or they are just trying to be responsible with their financial system. (lol)
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Feb 12, 2010 14:44
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11b1p posted:I am hoping it gets to around $130-135 a share by august or so. I chose it because I think China will be importing mass quantities, with no slow down in sight. Counter-point though, most other countries agriculture industries have stopped buying fertilizer in the hopes that they'll make it through another harvest without it. vvv: Gotta start somewhere indeed. I'm also 23 and my friends think I'm crazy for saving and investing and fiscal responsibility. ElehemEare fucked around with this message at 15:40 on Feb 13, 2010 |
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Feb 12, 2010 16:45
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Welp, just for my own amusement (and possibly yours), I'm going to post what I'm invested in and note when I get out of them. I only have about $12,000 invested right now between these, but you gotta start somewhere. GNVC @1.89 (after getting out of the frying pan and back in) BNVI @0.55 (averaged down a bit from my initial entry at 0.62) VICL @3.04 CUR @2.06 edit: yes I do realize my retirement fund is entirely invested in quite speculative (I did do my DD) biotech stocks  . I'm only 23, if I eat it, I can easily replace the amount by the end of the year.
destructo fucked around with this message at 06:26 on Feb 13, 2010 |
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Feb 13, 2010 06:22
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to monitor FX, what's a good, free platform to use? Last time I looked into it, Metatrader was what people were using. Anything else I should be using?
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Feb 13, 2010 21:24
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Hey, does anyone use Oanda's order and position data? http://fxlabs.oanda.com/cgi/fxlabs.pl?n=fxopenpositionshistory http://fxlabs.oanda.com/cgi/fxlabs.pl?n=fxopenordershistory  Seems like this might be informative, but I'm not sure how. Edit: Whoops, meant to put this in the forex thread, sorry: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2853661
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Feb 13, 2010 21:30
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Filthee Fingas posted:to monitor FX, what's a good, free platform to use? Last time I looked into it, Metatrader was what people were using. Anything else I should be using? Metatrader 4 with an Alpari demo/feed is pretty standard.
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Feb 13, 2010 22:18
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LactoseO.D.'d posted:Metatrader 4 with an Alpari demo/feed is pretty standard. Cant go wrong with that. I like FXpro's demo account (still mt4). It has tons of pairs, metals, and some stocks.
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Feb 14, 2010 00:41
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Not sure what thread to post this in, but I figured people here might have a good idea. For tracking returns across multiple brokers, what's the best tool to use? A simple spreadsheet? I'd like to compare the returns of the various accounts I have.
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Feb 15, 2010 15:13
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Strict 9 posted:Not sure what thread to post this in, but I figured people here might have a good idea. For tracking returns across multiple brokers, what's the best tool to use? A simple spreadsheet? I'd like to compare the returns of the various accounts I have. http://www.mint.com ? It accesses your brokerage information online, and can summarize all your returns.
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Feb 15, 2010 19:27
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Hello BFC! I'm about to do something I know is not entirely smart and spend some of my RRSP investments (us note: it's similar to a 401k but you can direct your investments however you wish) in single stocks. About half of my yearly contribution actually. I've done this before with AAPL because a) it's essentially a good company with a good long term business plan b) I actually understand the industry enough to follow the news and gage for myself how stupid/smart decisions are and c) it was relatively cheap when I bought it. That worked out well. (sold at a tidy return) This time AAPL is gently caress-expensive and I don't know what to think of it so I'd rather not touch it. Instead I have my sights set on the following companies, for the same a-b-c reasons as before: ATVI and ERTS. Both are conveniently suffering stock price hick-ups and both are essentially good companies with good, hard to gently caress-up portfolios. Is there any outstandingly obvious reason I should not be doing this?
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Feb 15, 2010 22:53
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Mr. Wynand posted:Hello BFC! So you'd be putting half you retirement savings into a few single stocks? I mean, if your goal is to speculate, that's fine, but combining speculation and long-term retirement savings can easily end in tears.
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Feb 16, 2010 00:14
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DuckConference posted:So you'd be putting half you retirement savings into a few single stocks? I mean, if your goal is to speculate, that's fine, but combining speculation and long-term retirement savings can easily end in tears. half of this year's contirbution to my savings, not half of my accumulated savings most of my savings sit in high interest GICs which i was lucky enough to buy before the government rate dropped through the floor the current piss-poor rates are actually what are making me get into riskier poo poo edit: i'm also pretty young (<30) so i'm not exactly in a rush to have my retirement fund just right - i can afford short term risk up the whazoo Mrs. Wynand fucked around with this message at 00:24 on Feb 16, 2010 |
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Feb 16, 2010 00:22
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Mr. Wynand posted:most of my savings sit in high interest GICs which i was lucky enough to buy before the government rate dropped through the floor Yeah. I spent a long time looking at the GIC rates on royalbank.com last night and just facepalming.
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Feb 16, 2010 00:33
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Right now I'm a bit over invested in my company's stock, due to going through 3 ESPP cycles w/o selling any shares. While I'm up a fair deal, I've been researching some other places I can put at least the 1st third. I was contemplating high-yield dividend stocks, when using google screener I stumbled upon this one: NLY It's Dividend/Yield is a staggering 0.75/17.21. While I understand that if I were to invest in it now, I'd be lucky to get 17% yields, even if it only pushed out 10%, it'd still be better than the high-yield bond vanguard mutual fund I was looking at. Asides from the normal risks associated with being invested in a real estate / the stock market in general, can anyone tell me what caveats I might be overlooking?
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Feb 17, 2010 19:02
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ToastedZergling posted:Right now I'm a bit over invested in my company's stock, due to going through 3 ESPP cycles w/o selling any shares. While I'm up a fair deal, I've been researching some other places I can put at least the 1st third. Investing a big portion of your assets in any single stock is a really bad idea. Much of the movement of any stock is essentially random noise; you're getting a lot more volatility, but unlike the small-cap and value premium, it's uncompensated. In other words, it's more likely you'll see significantly lower return in the long term compared to a similar index fund. Simple explanation Fuschia tude fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Feb 17, 2010 |
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Feb 17, 2010 19:57
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Nice jump on SIRI today.
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Feb 17, 2010 20:21
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Fuschia tude posted:Investing a big portion of your assets in any single stock is a really bad idea. This is why I'm looking to move the money out of my company's stock and into others. I just wanted to avoid short term capital gains on the ESPP stuff, which is why I've held onto it for so long / in such high quantities. I have the rest of my money parked in a few mututal funds. I think you misunderstood my inquiry, I'm more looking for advice on the stock itself and how it'd stack up compared to investing in bonds. I'm more curious as to why/how this company provides such big dividends? Is there a reason to believe they'll decline greatly? How risky of an investement in this stock be compared to the vanguard high-yield mutual fund I listed? Are there tax differences between stock dividends and bond yields?
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Feb 17, 2010 20:37
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Fuschia tude posted:Investing a big portion of your assets in any single stock is a really bad idea. Much of the movement of any stock is essentially random noise; you're getting a lot more volatility, but unlike the small-cap and value premium, it's uncompensated. In other words, you can expect significantly lower return in the long term compared to a similar index fund. This view is largely confined to academics, and among value investors and other people who know what they're doing, this is not necessarily the case. So what you are doing with Annaly? Annaly purchases mortgage-backed securities from Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie Mae, and the Federal Home Loan Banks. The first two have received a blank check from the US government to cover any losses, the third one was always guaranteed, and the last one would probably get bailed out if necessary too. So you're not really exposed to the real estate market because the government has already swooped in to protect you. Annaly, however, buys these securities on a great big fat margin. They own $70 billion of them, but only $9.3 billion represents equity. As a result, if the guarantees are withdrawn too early, the carnage could be epic, or then again it could not, but it's a risk. Your real exposure, though, is to interest rates. 3/4 of their holdings are fixed rate mortgages, which pay a rate that is much higher than Annaly's own interest cost. However, if interest rates go up, this large spread will shrink, causing that 17% yield to diminish rapidly and possibly even cause the firm to lose money. Rising rates also delay prepayments because refinancing becomes less attractive, and it also decreases the market value of the fixed-rate loans, which, in extreme cases, could result in Annaly getting a margin call. Annaly has $20 billion in interest rate swaps to protect themselves from this situation, and presumably the Federal Reserve will not be too precipitous about raising rates, but the fact remains that at some point rates will go up and the yield will drop. For adjustable rate mortgages, this isn't so much of an issue because the rate of the mortgage adjusts to rising interest rates after a lag of <1 year, subject to a limit of typically 1% a year and a ceiling on the rate itself which I don't think we're close to hitting in most cases. So, although the super-low cost of funds can go away, the holder of adjustable rate mortgages on margin is always, over the long term, entitled to the premium of the adjustable rate mortgage over the reference variable rate. For this reason, Capstead Mortgage (CMO), which invests only in adjustable rate mortgage securities, is probably better off if interest rates go up a lot, and curiously they also have a 17% yield. But for either company, those yields last only as long as interest rates are unrealistically low.
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Feb 17, 2010 20:39
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MrBigglesworth posted:Nice jump on SIRI today. Yeah, It's been kind to me in the last few days. The stock likes to break out around 3 PM, it increases in volume and usually goes up a few cents. I don't know why. It's also been getting really heavy volume, yesterday it was almost 3x avg. volume and today it'll probably be more than that.
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Feb 17, 2010 20:45
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MrBigglesworth posted:Nice jump on SIRI today. It's been closing green pretty much for 2 weeks now. I really can't figure out where it's coming from.
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Feb 17, 2010 20:45
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