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Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
To short MU or not to short MU, that's the question.

Also, I think if we hit S&P 1170 today it'd be a good time to start looking for some good short opportunities, but then again I didn't think we'd break 1150.

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Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

IratelyBlank posted:

For all the shares I'm looking at, the difference between the bid/ask is only .01 so it doesn't seem like that big of a deal. Is this the only impediment in what I was talking about above? It seems like an "easy" way to make some extra cash (if you have a huge chunk of cash just laying around, it doesn't seem like it would work with anything less than a few thousand dollars).

If you have a huge chunk of cash laying around, there are better and safer ways to make money on it. Why would you want to put the entirety of your investment into a single stock, just to pull it out when it inches up .3%? The risk for loss is higher than you're perceiving. Especially if this is a strategy you want to repeat everyday.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

IratelyBlank posted:

Thanks for the link, very interesting.

Switching gears a little bit, can someone tell me how options work? The basic idea I have is that you purchase an option for a stock at a certain price, and if the value of the stock rises, you can then buy the stock for the lower price and then immediately sell it for a profit. Is this correct? Also, how do the options devalue over time? I read that as time to their expiry date approaches, they are worth less and less, but wouldn't they be worth whatever value the stock is worth right up until they expire?

http://www.investopedia.com/university/options/

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
Is there a POMO calender someone could link me to?

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

IratelyBlank posted:

If I'm understanding this correctly, you don't actually need to buy the underlying stock that the option is for, you can just sell the option at the increased price, and this is what most people do anyway?

With calls, you have the option to buy the underlying at the strike price. With puts, you have the option to sell at the strike price. Assuming you're in the money, your profit will be the difference between the current price and the strike price minus what you paid for the contract.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
I think you're acting under the impression that you aren't the zillionth person to try to program yourself an advantage. Unless you're brighter than everyone on Wall Street, you're still playing the same losing game.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

Dirk Diggler posted:

Kind of a strange one today. One of the stocks I own, Taseko Mines (TGB) has been shooting upwards pretty steadily the last few days...until today. As you can see from the chart here, around 2:30 it had a little mini flash crash and lost around 30% almost instantly. Now it ended up only down ~10% for the day, and from the after hours it looks like it'll recover eventually, but I think there were a lot of people that got burned when their stop-losses kicked in. You guys know more about the market than I do, does this look like some kind of market fuckery to you?

HFT strikes again?

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
It must be nice being David Einhorn and being able to make stocks drop 20% on your beckon call. Would it have been illegal for him to take a short position and then tell people he didn't like the stock? As long as he doesn't encourage others to short it then I would think it'd be okay right?

talking about JOE by the way.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
Patting myself on the back for shorting the 20+ year treasury index.

Taking the pat away for owning Bank of America.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
This might be a long shot but can anyone recommend any resources that give an overview of different derivative characteristics and uses? Specifically interest rate, credit, and equity derivatives?

e: other than options.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

dlink posted:

I'm surprised at the Financial stocks rallying after C beat earnings using accounting tricks :\

If people cared about accounting tricks we would be so hosed it's not funny. If it's not fraud it's okay.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
Apple destroys earnings and guides lower. I for one, am surprised.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
Yeah they missed iPad sales but they also just posted an all time best in revenue and after-tax income.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

Jabbu posted:

To be honest, I'm not really excited either. An increase in position in my own case though works just because it fits with my portfolio. I need some steady, large cap, dividend paying backbone style companies that I don't have to keep a tight eye on to balance out my riskier and often times more lucrative investments that I watch like a hawk. I was doing well enough "buying low and selling high" without any regard for holding that I've just neglected increasing my dividend positions, which is all well and good if you never mess up, but eventually I'm pretty sure everyone does. I'm focusing on playing a bit conservative now. Someone going for quick money though I don't think will find GE to be very compelling.

Buy CAT instead.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
What's the stock?

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
Kind of a longshot but if anyone here has worked, or does work at Scotia Capital I would love to talk to you!

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
I've had a pretty good two months or so. Censored to hide my poorness.



Although I would hate to see what my risk-adjusted return is. I'll calculate it when I liquidate everything.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
There was a great article in the NY Times over the weekend about the current state of the derivatives market. I recommend you check it out!

(You have to have an account to read it, but its free to sign up)

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/12/business/12advantage.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=general

I'm moving to NYC on Jan. 1st to intern on the derivatives trading floor at a bank, and to be honest I don't really know what I'm getting myself into.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
Wait, Bank of America is going under?

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

windwaker posted:

I'm up 8% on AOL after five days...

Doesn't make it a good trade, friend.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

LuftWaffle posted:

Today is such a gift, I'm buying up as much as I can. I can't think of too many stocks that have anything at all to do with japan's nuclear reactors. A lot of companies are reporting earnings in about a month so the payoff could be huge.

I bought yesterday as well and I'll buy tomorrow too if this keeps up. Just think of what the markets will do when some kind of "all clear" signal is given for the reactors. The Nikkei is way oversold given how untouched Tokyo and the other major cities are. There is simply no way that japan is worth 10% less today than it was yesterday.

Maybe I'm crazy but I can't think of a better buying opportunity in the last 6 months

Two more 6.0+ Earthquakes hit Japan today, one of which was 50 miles from Tokyo. Your exuberance could easily come back to bite you.

Thoogsby fucked around with this message at 18:26 on Mar 15, 2011

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

Plastic Jesus posted:

This is my only point. What was the lost opportunity cost with your BP trade v. just buying SPY and sitting tight? Same thing for uranium. There's no need to be a hero and call bottoms, if something's got a long-term growth story it's not going to run away from you before you can react. Right now uranium seems like, at best, a difficult trade. There's nothing wrong with letting things settle down before getting in.

This is especially true if you're trying to ride out a large economic trend over a few years. You don't get points for difficulty. If someone comes out tomorrow and says everythings fine with Fukushima CCJ might pop to what? $37-$40 tops? But if something goes horribly wrong (which it still may) it will get cut in half.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
If I had to make a Japan play right now I would probably buy some KUB. It's already popped quite a bit from its earthquake induced lows but the nature of their business ensures they'll be a big part of the rebuilding and you'll also benefit from the strengthening yen against the dollar because its an ADR.

Or short CCJ and hope for fallout.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
Scottrade overhauled their interface about 6-8 months ago. It's still not the sexiest platform out there I'm sure but $7.95 trades isn't bad and I've had really good experiences with their customer service.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
Dennis Gartman wrote this in his morning letter today:

The Gartman Letter posted:

Finally, Federal Reserve officials are all too often given
omniscient status. They should not be, and this is
especially so this morning in light of what Dr. Janet
Yellen, the Fed’s Vice Chairman said earlier this week in
a speech she gave, and attended by one of our longest
standing clients and friends, Mr. Morris Sachs.
Concerning inflation and the Fed’s hoped for lessening of
inflationary concerns in the future, Dr. Yellen said

Now I would like to explain in further detail why I
anticipate that recent increases in commodity
prices are likely to have only transitory effects on
headline inflation. The current configuration of
quotes on futures contracts--which can serve as
a reasonable benchmark in gauging the outlook
for commodity prices--suggests that these prices
will roughly stabilize near current levels or even
decline in some cases. If that outcome
materializes, the prices of gasoline and heating
oil are likely to flatten out fairly soon, and retail
food prices are likely to continue rising briskly for
only a few more months. Consequently, the direct effects of the surge in commodity prices on
headline consumer inflation should diminish
sharply over coming months.


Dr. Yellen is so shockingly wrong as to make us both
laugh and cry at the same time. She, like Dr. Bernanke,
wholly misunderstands the logic of the term structure of
the futures market. Crude oil’s term structure has gone
backwardated. This does not mean that the market
expects prices to fall, but rather backwardation is the very
hallmark of a bull market, not a bear. Markets go to
contango in bear markets where supplies out-strip
demand; they go into backwardation when demand
surpasses supply. Dr. Yellen should be looking at the
term structure of the crude oil market and be concerned
about rising, rather than waning, prices. Dr. Holbrook
Working… the gentleman who first wrote academically
about the term structure of the futures markets and who
proved the validity of our term structure thesis… must be
rolling over in his academic grave!

Can anyone explain what he's talking about with the crude term structure or provide references?

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

imabmf posted:

It will come back, just maybe not in a 3-6 month or even 9 month horizon.

I own 225 shares. All bought above the current price.

What's the catalyst?

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

evilwaldo posted:

I would wait to see signs of a consistent growth strategy. Right now the stock is headed for the $10-14 level.

The stock didn't break $14 during the crisis. I have a hard time seeing it test that level again, let alone drop to $10.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

lightpole posted:

It should register on your account right away and you are free to use it. Transferring money in is really easy, getting it back out is a pain.

I've never had problems getting money out. If you call your local branch they'll cut you a check and it takes all of 10 seconds on the phone.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
Pretty sure the stock has to trade for like 3 months before options are established.

But yeah, that valuation is beyond ridiculous.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
Toying with the idea of getting in the Android camp and picking up some AMD. They're the last girl to get asked to the prom, but if she doesn't have crabs it could still be a fun night.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
Look out below!!!!

I'd love to see a good correction here.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
Got long gold and short the 7-10 year treasury this lovely morning.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

Femur posted:

How did you invest in gold? through etf?

Yup. Nothing fancy.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

marsisol posted:

Forgive me if this all sounds horribly dumb, but I have no idea how much of this works.

Is it possible for me to just simply buy a bunch of stock from one company, and then just let it do its thing over the years?

Yes but if that's where your investing knowledge starts and ends I would advise against investing in individual companies.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

Thufir posted:

So how crazy is Groupon's IPO going to be?

Their book demand will probably be just as hot as LinkedIn so I wouldn't be surprised to see another run up to ridiculous multiples.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

Dr. Jackal posted:

if you are looking at large brokerages, look at Schwab and Fidelity,
Don't forget the likes of Vanguard, OptionXpress, OptionHouse.

Fidelity's cheap and you can probably have every type of account under the sun with one broker. However, their platform is pretty awful compared to other discount brokers.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

paint dry posted:

I've never really thought about IPOs before but I'd like to get in on one of these before the social media bubble bursts in everyone's faces. How would I go about that as a private investor? Is it even possible for private investors to get in at the starting price? And is this further complicated by the fact I'm in the UK rather than the US?

For all intents and purposes, hot IPOs are limited to institutional clients of the lead underwriters and high net worth individuals that are clients of the lead underwriters wealth management divisions. Unless you've got tens of millions of dollars sitting in an account at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, or Credit Suisse you get to sit on the sidelines with the rest of us.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

paint dry posted:

I see. That seems kind of silly, I mean surely my money is as good as theirs. I guess I'm just showing my ignorance here.

It's a posturing game really. The company going public wants their shares to look as attractive as possible and create a market for their shares if they choose to do another offering. Access to IPOs that are going to net an investor 50%+ returns in a day is a good way to attract institutional clients to other business lines for the bank where they can generate more revenue. These underwriters will go out on the road and find the big guys that will make large orders and won't dump it immediately when it runs up. If every Tom, Dick, and Harry could grab it they would have no way to keep the chart from looking like an inverted V the first day it goes public.

Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.
CSCO is probably a good long term play but I'd be hesitant to use things like 52-week lows when deciding when to get in. A turn-around for a company that size is a huge deal and stopping the downward momentum could take some time. It could easily slide down another dollar or two especially if we're heading into a market correction.

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Thoogsby
Nov 18, 2006

Very strong. Everyone likes me.

ayekappy posted:

Pure consumer-wise, I'd say you're right; but tablets would be great for doctors and nurses... digital clip boards, instant prescription fills, links into monitors etc. Yeah, you could do that with a phone, but it'd be too small to get lots of detail, and you could do it with a laptop, but they're too heavy or cumbersome, and a netbook would be awkward with typing and whatnot. Tablets would also be pretty good for other professionals and they would be pretty decent for students that want to have all their books in an easy to carry tablet with the ability to write notes and whatnot. You could do that with a tablet PC, but again... weight and thinness and really a lack of outside moving parts help the tablet.

They're also useful for anyone who works in sales/pitches for a living. Some bankers at Morgan Stanley already bring iPads to pitches.

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