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Darkmage posted:Now we're watching the EUR/USD here. Critical point. VERY tight stop and great R:R anything over 1.3690 is a buy. Stop @ 1.3675. Bullish 1 and 5 min. Going to push the hourly higher as well and show strength into the 8 CT close. COULD be a major bottom (Huge ATM) Hi all. I'm Darkmage's friend. I just joined and wanted to say 'hi'. I've been trading for about 11 years. Quite a few of those I lost money. Learned a lot though. Traded options, equity futures, stocks, (day-traded below the 25k min through a non-NASD member hehe), and forex. Was never profitable on futures or daytrading, although I haven't been back to them in 3-4 years. About to get into it again so maybe this can be my fresh start. Read over the board and wanted to contribute. Plus he got a free mug from somewhere on this site and I could always use a new mug.  Oh, also. Analysis-----TA is great. FA is great and there's great approaches to both. TA however is VERY strict and that's what most traders don't learn at first. Lastly, i'm here to learn so can't wait to I would also assume he'd want to move that stop to 1.3685. Unlimited profit and risk is only 15 pips. In addition, you'd also reverse on a break of that level and go short.
Limit Up fucked around with this message at 03:29 on Feb 5, 2010 |
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Feb 5, 2010 03:26
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whalesneedlove posted:Why do you talk like CNBC just gave you 10 seconds of air time. Well, you could always turn off your TV.  I'll post up a chart for ya though to show what he's referring to. Hopefully that's ok. It better explains it
Limit Up fucked around with this message at 04:06 on Feb 5, 2010 |
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Feb 5, 2010 04:03
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whalesneedlove posted:I know what he is talking about. I was talking about his phrasing and word choice. haha oh. Yeah the trading talk. I think he'll probably have to cut that crap out. Good point. But here's a chart anyways. Works pretty good. Switched to a 5 min chart this was a VERY high probability trade using technical analysis. *** The point is I know a lot of guys on here (based on the previous 700 page thread) were iffy about technical trading. Well this is just to show that if you feel like wasting several years of your life you can get pretty decent at it. *** It DOES work . Doesn't always end up like this, but this was a REAL TIME example (albeit 1) of a profitable trade. So far +30 pips with a 15 pip stop. 2:1 risk reward. The post was at 7:41 Central Time. 
Limit Up fucked around with this message at 04:33 on Feb 5, 2010 |
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Feb 5, 2010 04:28
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For new guys, I'd also like to contribute to the broker section. I've traded through several (I have issues) so if anyones got any questions let me know. I've been where everyone is and a helping hand is always nice. List is: MBTrading for options. Zecco for options and stocks Scottrade for stocks RML for daytrading Tradevisions for daytrading Etrade (managed acct) Izone (Ameritrade) for stocks Think or swim. Global Futures for futures. FXCM for forex (yes a bucketshop) There's a couple more I don't remember I think. ThinkorSwim is great btw. If you're interested in hearing a squak from the pits download their desktop and then you can hear the live audio (it's fun to listen to if you're hardcore haha). They recently added it. Favorite are probably Scottrade for their real-time quotes, MB for their comissions, and Zecco for their option analytics. Limit Up fucked around with this message at 04:45 on Feb 5, 2010 |
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Feb 5, 2010 04:42
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whalesneedlove posted:You showed nothing in your picture or post. You just showed a chart and drew a circle around your entry and drew a line to where price is now. I dont doubt that you are up 30 pips but you didnt show any technical analysis. Why did you enter, why do you have a 15 pip trailing stop, where is your profit target? Oh sorry about that. I wasn't sure how much detail posters here care to see. Yeah actually pure form is exactly what will make you the consistent money. What you listed is going to be the stuff that will work year after year. It never changes. I got caught up in a lot of the garbage but some of it is great. Two things I will add to it are channels and pivot points. Channels are a must as well. Pivot points are great for short-term trading and there are a lot of whales who use them. Channels can go long and short term. That trade itself was a very basic trade off of support. The entry itself was on a breakout above a key level. I'll post up some pictures of the setup and explain the trade from the 1 hr chart straight down to the 1 min chart, however I don't know how things work here and I don't want to clog up this thread with a lot of pictures. (i'm new here and don't want to upset anyone) PM me if you're interested.
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Feb 5, 2010 05:13
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Umph posted:Hey man welcome to the forums Thanks! I appreciate it. Happy to be here. Futures I actually traded on 2 separate occasions about 4 years ago. It was about a year a piece so about 2 years total I traded. It was rough. Lost money like crazy the first year. 2nd year I started off very well (developed a strategy for it) however when the strategy failed I had zero risk management for it so I blew that out as well. Took a little longer though. Toyota's a funny story. This is where it could get nasty. The government owns a majority stake in GM and domestic auto sales have been slow in general. I have a feeling the government is going to take this to the next level (with the investigation) and really pin Toyota for all they're worth. The idea behind that would be to smear the name, get all of the dirt out on them and hopefully boost domestic auto sales in the process. Just a guess . Not something I really feel like playing personally. Gonna be fun to see how it works out though.
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Feb 5, 2010 09:42
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whalesneedlove posted:I dont doubt that you are up 30 pips but you didnt show any technical analysis. Why did you enter, why do you have a 15 pip trailing stop, where is your profit target? My profit target can be arbitrary. Typically the ideal way is to exit and reverse the same way you got in. I only know 1 trader who does that and he's probably one of the best traders i've ever met in my life. I'm not anywhere near that good. I typically add to a profitable position and then scalp it off either in 1/3's or 1/2's of the position. Kind of depends on the entry. Other traders like to simply be all in or all out and get in and then trail it up until the stop is it (let the market take them out). I like the 1/2 and 1/2 rule because 1/2 my exit is based on price and then the other half is based on time. Time being a certain set amount of time I expect the trade to take. I determine this through a set of cycles I developed for trading the market. HURST is another example of trading cycles. He's a rocket scientist who was hired to crack the market. Great read but I haven't taken the time to figure out how to apply it to daytrading. (works good for swing trading though). I eventually developed me own. Don Wrigley posted:Welcome to the forum Limit Up -- I love your attitude. I think in the hundreds of pages of the old thread and the few pages of the new one, you're the first one I've seen admitting to some consistent losses (while I'm sure that 90% of the people have the same experience, just don't like to admit it). Thank you. haha yup, i'm not perfect and more than willing to admit where i'm wrong and what kind of mistakes i've made (it's part of the game). Quite honestly my learning curve took a little longer and I don't think I could have ever been consistent and confident (currently) had I not met a mentor. That's a good question. I'm always willing to learn, see new ideas, interesting sites etc. Keeps it fun. I typically only trade the technicals for currencies so I like hearing other people's ideas toward things....keeps me from having a rigid bias on market direction. Also, I like being up to date on the news/big events happening that I may have missed. PsychoAndy posted:Now I'm pissed at myself for covering my short in silver. For some reason I had it in my head that 15 was decent support for silver; totally wrong. Live and learn I guess. Just curious, I may have missed it but are you shorting physical or through the ETF? (SLV) Not a bad cover btw. Gonna pop Monday it looks like. GBP/USD has much wider swings than the EUR/USD I prefer to trade that personally for that reason alone, however the big one is the EUR/USD. Nearly everyone trades that. It's like the S&P of currencies.
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Feb 5, 2010 23:58
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destructo posted:Limit Up, I find your posting extremely interesting, any recommendations on any other forums that might be filled with your style of postings? Any good starting points for a beginning swing trader? Thanks Thanks. Elitetrader.com. That site is good, but to find gold nuggets on that site you have to look for reliable posters. They're few and far between. The most creative on there is 'yoohoo'. Some of the threads he participated in were excellent. He shares a lot of basic info from the ground up. Elovemer (sp?) for his channels, you can get a good idea on the basics. Just remember to take it 1 step at a time. I hopped right in years ago and lost a lot of discipline in the beginning. It cost me a lot of money, and time to right, the wrongs I made.Traders-talk.com is good too. SilenOne on there is super with the cycles. They've also got a lot of creative technical ideas and they're helpful as well. Investorshub.com contains a lot of active traders however it's hard to find a lot of basics. Sgomez858 on youtube. Him and Andy profitably daytrade. Andy is VERY good and consistent. You can learn a lot just from watching his screen while he trades in those youtube videos. He uses very tight stops, adds to only profitable positions the majority of the time, and typically lets winners run (however he does scalp a lot as well). Side note: They started that service after they got a lot of interest in the youtube videos. They turned it into a business and cut back on the videos unfortunately. Still worth taking a look for beginning traders. The thing is that moving averages don't always get respected by price. He simply keeps stops tight and either the price level holds or he's out. That risk management is KEY to consistency and profits. I will share this, there's a lot stuff/basics online about technical analysis. DEFINATELY combine them with fundamentals. Your opinion matters. The problem is that you need to use technicals for entries so that you can control risk. The TA stuff is too lenient with entries and stops. What you want to do is you want to develop a strategy. Hope this helps! GET MONEY posted:"Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" was definitely one of the most informative trading books I've read, I highly recommend it as well. I developed my system using moving averages and Bollinger Bands in a manner similar to his envelopes. Great to hear! Yup, MA's can really do a lot. Crossovers, S&R, etc. They're a very useful tool. Hurst is dynamite. Very technical though and some of the stuff he went through I just couldn't rack my brain with anymore. I can't imagine what he used to come up with some of those ideas. There's still a lot of the strategy that may have been altered it seems and the FLD's really throw me for a loop. In addition, and I'm not sure if this was true, but apparently a lot of the work wasn't released. An important part was also the compounding though. I Limit Up fucked around with this message at 02:00 on Feb 6, 2010 |
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Feb 6, 2010 01:42
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LactoseO.D.'d posted:Hey technical analysis. I used to believe in that. Nothing wrong with fundamentals. You can do a lot with that too. You have potentially 3 models you may want. 1 for value 1 for growth 1 for speculation (biotech, new technology, etc) Fundamentals have an issue with dilution, unregistered sales of securities, preferred shares, macroeconomic growth trends, etc. Value investing is simple. That is the only area of investing I can trade and nearly reduce risk to 0. The only risk is market liquidity. When the market crashed there were companies out there trading at levels I refer to as "fundamental arbitrage". IMO...Growth is built on GDP (inflation as well) and also built-in premiums. You need to discover whether those premiums are undervalued or overvalued compared to the sector/industry. Basic fundamental question: P/E....how many people here use that as a gauge? Everyone says it does work/doesn't work and no one knows why some companies have high p/e's and why some don't. It's junk unless you know how to use it. Has anyone figured it out? What P/E is based on. I have a DEFINITE answer for this and I'd love to hear from the fundamental guys on this. Not calling you out, but just want you to know that if you're going to do fundamentals, you're going to have to have GOOD rules for this as well. Not cookie-cutter ratios. I like fundamentals and can go all day on that as well Limit Up fucked around with this message at 04:37 on Feb 6, 2010 |
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Feb 6, 2010 04:31
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PsychoAndy posted:Now I'm pissed at myself for covering my short in silver. For some reason I had it in my head that 15 was decent support for silver; totally wrong. Live and learn I guess. Limit Up posted:
Gold futures up 20 bucks. Silver up 42 cents. Some sick moves. I'd be happy with that cover . Very nice trade Psycho.
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Feb 8, 2010 09:55
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Duey posted:Yeah, but at least casinos give better odds. Yeah, but like card counting you can put the odds in your favor. Market timing is one way of doing this. You'll overcome Theta. If anyone is online right now I can give you a live example via currencies. You battle Vega by charting the option itself or IV. Now combine this with a direction. The trick is that you need reasonably tight stops and plenty of discipline. Especially if you're playing front-month. Careful playing these into the weekend. Everyone says they're discounted on Friday, but until someone shows me proof if this I will RARELY play front month through the weekend anymore. Lost too much doing this. Leaps are different. There's plenty of slack there. EDIT: Ok potential reversal point on the GBP/USD comes @ approx 12:50 - 12:55 CT. This move should come from the lows. If it's not it could be a potentially inverted cycle. 1.5617ish buy point Limit Up fucked around with this message at 07:28 on Feb 11, 2010 |
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Feb 11, 2010 07:23
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Ugly shot of what i'm trading update: waiting for a confirmation (none yet) but here's the idea. Timing is right now (12:58)  Update 2 1st trade failed. Stopped @ about 28 -~pip. 2nd trade so far was a gain off the 17 level (1 pip off) The idea is with tight stops and accurate orders you will not only be consistent but you will never blow out.  Limit Up fucked around with this message at 08:28 on Feb 11, 2010 |
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Feb 11, 2010 07:40
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Horrible news A/H. Things are going to hit the fan tomorrow. Discount window raised and Fed Funds rate is next. Right at resistance too. They're hoping the news gets digested over the weekend to prevent further collapse. Whether it works we'll see Monday. Monday will be huge and if they want this rally going strong, they better have the printing presses going Monday.
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Feb 19, 2010 04:32
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I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:The FOMC minutes clearly telegraphed the discount window hike. The Fed has been overly clear that they will return to a discount rate premium before raising the fed funds rate. I don't understand why people are being such loving babies about a 25bp hike on loans that are only used for emergencies. If the Fed "hoped the news gets digested over the weekend to prevent further collapse" they wouldn't have announced it before expiration Friday, they'd have announced it tomorrow afternoon. So tell me what the trade is then and why. Also exclude the fact that the Fed's gonna pump more money in. Because they're not. Monetary easing is done with. That's the trade right now. Currencies still showing it LactoseO.D.'d posted:Well futures are down on the Fed hike note. I doubt it will stick. We went through a decent downer when China hiked and if anything it was a buying opportunity. That's what the Fed is hoping.
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Feb 19, 2010 06:29
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whalesneedlove posted:http://www.thestreet.com/story/10685007/1/stocks-higher-as-investors-shrug-off-fed-move.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN PA didn't confirm the move from Friday. Hence Monday's a non-issue. No big deal. "But Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at ChannelCapitalResearch.com, believes questions behind the underlying motive and timing of the move may continue to linger. "People are now wondering if this is the start of monetary tightening even though the Fed decision last night indicated 'that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period,' " Roberts wrote in a note. "If it is not, the market is left wondering what the true message behind the rate move is."" For the long-term. This is an issue. If you're going to fail to realize that now....that's fine. But sooner or later the markets going to teach you a lesson. Do you know what to do? I mean, do you have ANY experience in the markets at all? If so maybe you could contribute something of use. Limit Up fucked around with this message at 00:43 on Feb 22, 2010 |
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Feb 22, 2010 00:39
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Hobologist posted:Did things hit the fan today? I can't tell. No they didn't. So what's your next move?
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Feb 22, 2010 00:42
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destructo posted:Just lettin' you dudes know there's been a swing in the way stem cells can be used now, opening up some new opportunities. Great to hear. Thanks for the heads up . Always good to know where the money's moving to.Did some rough cycle work on regional banks last night. Some are moving into a bearish 3 month window here. Typically very bearish. Sell the tops and then it tanks the last month (maybe two) of the cycle. It coincides with the bump in the discount window so there's a catalyst too. Limit Up fucked around with this message at 07:22 on Feb 25, 2010 |
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Feb 25, 2010 07:19
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destructo posted:I know we're not supposed to talk super pennies, but if you're interested in this sort of thing ACTC and VRAL might see some moves later in the year. Too risky for my blood though. ACTC decent move today. Looks good. Easy ways to eliminate risk. I've traded pennies for a long time as well. Cycles are much quicker. However, they trend very well. It's been documented pennies are one of the few things out there that have tradeable (I believe that's what it stated) trends.
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Feb 27, 2010 07:15
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Limit Up posted:PA didn't confirm the move from Friday. Hence Monday's a non-issue. No big deal. Back from the grave
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Jun 9, 2010 05:28
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