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LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Cheesemaster200 posted:

drat, techs have been getting pounded the last couple weeks. I guess they were the big leaders in the rally of the last six months, and were a bit overbought and overhyped (especially GOOG and AAPL).

Kinda pissed I didn't get out of INTC at 20.75 like I originally planned to, though.

Lets not forget BIDU's jump to 25 P/S. Definitely overbought.

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LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

MrBigglesworth posted:

Throw in Finviz.com in the OP under tools. It is an excellent stock screener.

Cnbc.com has a few decent fundamental-based screeners.

Anyone know where I can run some stock selection backtests based on fundamental criteria?

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
Hey technical analysis. I used to believe in that.

I hope all the fundamental guys aren't scared off. I like hearing from them.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
I haven't seen anyone post about it, but lumber futures have been exhibiting some unusual action for the past month, up 36.9% with large specs fueling the move.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
Opinions on ALGT? They look like they are putting up some good numbers but the short interest is awfully high... What am I missing?

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Christobevii3 posted:

He talked about how Greece is much smaller than someone like California who is a larger economy and unable to service their debt. Once people use the same fundamentals to run away from Greece and look at running to the dollar as just as flawed it will create the same currency push down. He's basically saying any country with higher than serviceable debt to gdp ratios will all default.

So I guess all the largest economies in the world are kaput. What currency does that leave you with when the pound, euro, yen, and dollar are all in danger of default? Those currencies are over 85% of the world's reserve currency base. Faber sees the danger, but he doesn't see that there is a lack of alternative.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Hobologist posted:

You can't learn what you need to know about a company in 10 minutes. It takes at least half an hour.

Guess I should spend more time in the 10Q and less going through old headlines. Thanks Hobo.

I was looking ALGT and DNDN last night. DNDN has horrible financials and but can't stop rallying. Apparently they have a cancer vaccine in FDA stage 3 with estimated sales of $500M to $1B. If that came to fruition it would have a similar multiple to PFE or MRK, which IMO means its relatively overvalued -but there is no way to play that.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Filthee Fingas posted:

to monitor FX, what's a good, free platform to use? Last time I looked into it, Metatrader was what people were using. Anything else I should be using?

Metatrader 4 with an Alpari demo/feed is pretty standard.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Baddog posted:

I'm not sure you got the "other people who know what they are doing" on the right side of that equation.

http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2892928

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
How is anyone supposed to get:

Baddog posted:

Where in there is anything that disputes that the increase in return for investing in one stock compensates for the massive risk of investing in only one stock.

If I buy five stocks with the same expected return, I cut my variance tremendously, and don't hurt my expectation - I've reduced risk at no cost to myself, and that's always a good thing, you should get paid to take on risk.

Fuschia was wrong in stating that the expected return is lower from holding one stock versus a basket of similar stocks (I think probably over simplifying), but he's right in saying that you aren't being compensated for being more risky by investing in one vs a basket. And I don't think that was what Hobologist was pointing out.


The rate of return for investing in one stock with 20% EV will be the same as the rate of return for investing in five stocks with 20% EV, but the five stocks will carry much lower risk.

The rate of return for investing in one stock will be lower than the rate of return of a similarly risky but more intelligent strategy (what i think fuschia meant).

From:

Baddog posted:

I'm not sure you got the "other people who know what they are doing" on the right side of that equation.

Your original post wasn't much better than a troll. The link was kind of a 'gtfo'. Thanks for elaborating and inviting a discussion.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Hog Obituary posted:

Do you guys know anything about cv.im/Covestor? I just saw it linked off of I WANT TO EAT BABBY's WSMCo link. I know very little about investing in stocks, but this seems like it has the potential to be awesome or awful.

...Or collective2.com for that matter.

What do you want to know?

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Craptin Mypants posted:

does anyone have a suggestion for a good stock screener software/website for screening for chart patterns. I know its hard because the pattern hasn't fully evolved, but theres got to be a way to screen for setups...

finviz.com has a few pattern screens. So does stockcharts.com

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
Well futures are down on the Fed hike note. I doubt it will stick. We went through a decent downer when China hiked and if anything it was a buying opportunity.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

PianoDragn posted:

Hey guys, maybe one of you can help me find the stock screener I am looking for...

I want to be able to set several parameters like you can with most stock screeners, P/E, 5yr growth rate, 52wk change, etc. But i want to run this screening in certain points in time. I would like to run this as if I ran it on Jan 1st. 2008, or April 1st. 2008 if this makes sense? I want to be able to act like I am sitting at my computer on that date doing analysis to pick stocks, then I can see how my picks ended up doing. Does that make sense? Does something like this exist?

Yes, its called a backtester. Its tough to find testers that will let you use fundamental data (if you find a good one, do let me know). However, if you want to run a screen off of data that can be computed off of daily price data (Open, high, low, close, and volume), finviz has a backtester http://finviz.com/help/elite.ashx#backtests . Stockfetcher has P/E, and a bunch of other OHLCV-based indicators. http://forums.stockfetcher.com/sfforums/betatest.php?qrid=1190723546&fid=1006

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Cheesemaster200 posted:

How the gently caress did gold not tank today?

Gold isn't as sensitive to interest rates as a lot of the other commodities. I don't know what the official reason for that is, but it probably depends on who you ask.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

LactoseO.D.'d posted:

Gold isn't as sensitive to interest rates as a lot of the other commodities. I don't know what the official reason for that is, but it probably depends on who you ask.

Eh, rechecked a source. This isn't exactly right.

LactoseO.D.'d fucked around with this message at 06:12 on Feb 20, 2010

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
Ok, go pull up a quote for EDZ. Whaaaaaaat.

edit: http://trak.in/india/direxion-launches-1-for-10-reverse-share-split-of-etf/economy-73819/

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
Morningstar.com has that.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Cheesemaster200 posted:

Whats everyone's opinion on PFE? They have been getting beat up due to some failures with cancer drugs, but they have a nice dividend and a lot of people are saying they are oversold.

Not sure about PFE, but I have been looking at LLY. They've also been getting really beat up and have a better dividend yield. They haven't been able to pack their pipeline with any really lucrative products since the Prozac years, I suspect something similar is the case for PFE. I'd check PFE's pipeline before pulling the trigger.

On a related note I'm looking at grabbing a dividend ETF for my Roth and writing some calls against it. I'm having a terrible time finding a good one. Some of these have expense ratios they just don't deserve. Anyone have any suggestions?

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
I'm looking at an ETF to diversify away some of the event risk/volatility of the position. It also would save a bit on transaction costs to have one dividend ETF, rather than 10-15 dividend paying holdings, especially in the event things start getting called away and I have to repurchase holdings.

I haven't tested it, but I also anticipate the dividend risk of selling calls to be lower on an ETF than a given stock.

Might just grab XLU...

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Don Wrigley posted:

Yes, in fact they did for about a year and a half straight starting in late 2007. Short memories...

He was making a joke Don.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Hobologist posted:

Do my eyes deceive me, or is Endwave (ENWV) selling for less than its net cash? Am I missing anything?

Consistent operating losses? That's all I saw in my 5 minute check anyways.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
Yeah that was a fun day. I thought it'd be a nice quiet Friday. There wasn't any economic news... did anything hit the wires that was noteworthy at all?

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

ANGRY_KOREA_MAN posted:

Random Motley Fool Stocks

You know how those ratings work right? I'd encourage you not to use them, especially for multi-year holds.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Dr. Eldarion posted:

I never in a million years thought I'd be saying this, but... drat I wish I had some PALM.

(I hope HTC buys them for their patents so they can give Apple a big 'gently caress you')

A lot of the analysts are pricing the value of their IP (which is all they really have) at less than what it is trading at. I wouldn't be in it. But what will probably happen is it will go ridiculously higher since its one of the 3 M&A plays being trumped up by the news outlets while the negotiations drag on, so you can probably still make some coin off it until firms start throwing out reasonable offers.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Christobevii3 posted:

High volume swings during the day that usually push it up and down, but then the stocks usually settle at an even handle so that everyones options get hosed over. Its hilariously predictable. Go into a stock chat channel and you'll see people rage. Triple witching days are the best. The last one I hit RIMM literally settled at exactly $40 a share after swinging from open at $42 to $45 down to $36 and hit $40 at close. They beat earnings before opening too.

I'm not huge on conspiracy theories either but there are some big players who descend from their thrones of money to push stocks to protect their options positions on OEX days. Sometimes they are successful, sometimes not. Action like this is not uncommon.

In other news, Goldman Sachs, lol.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
AAPL and GS earnings tomorrow. Yee haw. Bang bang.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Ravarek posted:

Yeah, I agree. But then again, fundamentals haven't meant poo poo in these last few years. Foreclosures are up, Greece is fighting for its life, Europe as a whole is in deep poo poo, Goldman Sachs is in the midst of scandal, the job market still sucks rear end, and capacity utilization is still low, but HEY.. the equity melt up continues with no sign of stopping. OMGG!!! BUY EVARYTHING!!!!

I'd like to direct you two to today's housing numbers. Biggest gainer since April 1963. There is good economic data out there. Earnings have also been mostly beats so far. Some of the QE programs are beginning to be scaled back, that's another positive sign the economy is ticking up.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:

Just to clarify, the ABACUS products were composed of CDSs not CDOs. And I think it's safe to say that if GS had told any potential investors that Paulsen was the short side of the trade _and_ had selected the underlying bonds there would have been much less interest in them.

Thats the way I interpreted it. GS didn't do anything illegal in designing the product, but its a question of full disclosure, and its easy to make a case that a fiduciary breached their duty by forgetting to disclose absolutely everything. Anyone in financial services has Errors and Omissions insurance for this reason.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Stup posted:

I can't seem to find any software to analyze/chart your personal stock results. I mean specifically your own gains/losses, maybe showing unrealized gains/losses as well. Not individual stock charting. Is this out there and I just haven't found it? or nonexistent?

I personally use spreadsheets for everything, but if you're looking to drop some money on a 3rd party app this: http://www.tradelogger.net/ has more bells and whistles than anything I've seen. I dabbled with it a while back, and don't personally use it.

quote:

Also is there an equivalent to the poker win rate (big blinds won/100 hands played) that is commonly used to show how well you're doing?

There is not a single common metric. Some metrics are average trade, profit factor, sharpe ratio... there are a whole lot of them. I will add that the number people most often quote to other people is win rate. Even though it ignores a whole slew of information, people really seem to zero in on it, or at the very least feel compelled to brag about it.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
Dear ECB,

Please send bailout packages to the following countries: Spain, Portugal, and Italy. Then we can just be done with it. If I have to sit through drawn out negotiations and political posturing for each of these one at a time like I did with Greece, and their resulting market action, I'm going to go crazy.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
So... I guess the market doesn't like the approval of the Greek austerity bill.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
Wow, uh we might limit down.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
Oh my god my software is going crazy. Price is gapping a full 50 ticks on the mini dow, the DOM levels are all split up, this is complete chaos.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:

Heard another rumor that the a Citi broker accidentally sold $16B in ES instead of $16M.

I like that being down 3% all of the sudden seems like an ok day.

Citi just announced "It finds no evidence of erroneous trades."

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Pug posted:

Outsider looking at daytrading. How much starting capital do you need to be successful? How many months of education would you say is also recommended / required?

There is a pretty well documented fail rate between 75-90% irrespective of experience and capitalization (though they are factors). I have some hard data to back that up if you would like more detail. If you explore the internet you can find whole daytrading communities with thousands of people that are now ghost towns where nobody was successful, and advisory services that fail like clockwork every 2-3 years.

I'd also recommend against learning online poker. The easy money there has been gone for 10 years. Its a lot of grind for very little cash. If you want to play, just play the Sunday majors; grinding multi-tables all day, every day will crush most normal people.

To actually answer your question and not just throw a bunch of advice you didn't originally ask for at you (though it is important to consider): You can daytrade with as little as 5k at a prop, futures broker, or FX broker. I'd recommend being able to string together at least 4 profitable weeks in a row before trading in cash -that may take months or years depending on how quickly you are able to figure things out. Once again, the odds of success are not in your favor. Chances are you won't heed the warnings anyway.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Hobologist posted:

Why exactly is Germany's ban on naked short selling considered major news? It's been banned in the US for years.

It gives the people who check zerohedge a new thing to hyperventilate about.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002
How are people feeling about solar plays? I know the tax credit is expiring but the sector has grown every year for the past 10 years. The story is that Eurozone pressures are beating down the whole sector since that is a huge solar market. But a lot of companies have hedged their exposure pretty well, FSLR hedged 50% of their net income @1.39 EUR/USD and stocks like STRI and JASO have limited exposure as well. Valuations are low.

LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Josh Lyman posted:

I don't understand why Obama and Biden hinted that that jobs number would be good. Are they retarded?

Who knows. There have been some barbs about a "Jobless Recovery" and "Obama lied, if there is a recovery, where is your job?" that he is probably trying to address. Why you would put your neck out and say the number will be good when either you don't know or are going to be wrong seems like a political fumble to me.

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LactoseO.D.'d
Jun 3, 2002

Vatek posted:

Better get out quick, it's getting de-listed from the NASDAQ tomorrow.

Can you provide a link? I can't find anything.

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