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For a free charting thing with a compatible broker, ninjatrader is pretty sweet. Also, for a fun economic read, Liar's Poker is a great book dealing with fixed-income, trading, the development of financial products like MBS, and overuse of leverage in the 1980s. A quaint precursor to 2008.dv6speed posted:I'm in cash at the moment until poo poo settles down and am looking for short term trades... which I'm terrible at. I'm currently short silver since the trend turned and it broke 16 and change a couple days ago. I also bought some SKF before the state of the union; in retrospect and knowing what I know now about the IPad, I should have sold the Q's instead, or better yet, AAPL. Counter posted:Got my new screen up and running today.... Man I still have DNA and SGP on my stock watchlist thing. So pissed at myself for not picking up a boatload @ 70, and it was by far my favorite pharma name. Do you just deal with equities and not commodities/fixed income products? Also, you need multiple monitors preferably with a matrix screensaver.
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Jan 29, 2010 18:45
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Cheesemaster200 posted:So essentially people took out low interest loans in dollars, and then loaned them out again in Euros. This stays all fine and dandy as long as the Euro is equal or stronger in value versus the dollar. Right now, since people generally took out those loans in dollars around this exchange rate ($1.40), people are jumping ship, accelerating the strengthening of the dollar versus the Euro (and potentially driving down equities). to add to this, i don't trade fx, but it seems like simple TA stuff can be applied, like support/resistance. Currently google finance shows EURUSD at 1.3866. So if you look at the last time EURUSD was this low, back in June/July 09, if it were to go lower you would see support at 1.3851, and then 1.3787. If EURUSD breaks 1.37, next stop would probably be 1.3671 to 1.3474, as shown in May. Obviously if you're trading a lot with a notional value of $100k, the pips add up. To jazz it up a bit, you should also look at volume, moving averages, trendlines, and apply fib levels to the support/resistance and whatnot. Or you could just use fundamental analysis and ask yourself whether you think Greece is going to get a.)bailed out, b.)default, c.) cut their spending, or d.) lie about their books again. If you think A or B have a high likelihood of happening, sell EURUSD...which is what's been happening since people are worried about Greece, not to mention other high debt/gdp euro countries such as Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain. I'm also looking at GBPUSD, as it's currently trading at 1.5992 and seems to be at an inflection point in that (to me) it seems like GBPUSD is either going to drop to 1.58 (support) or trade back up to 1.65 (resistance). Gun-to-head, I think it's going to 1.58, just due to the end of QE as well as Bill Gross speculating that UK Gilts are resting "on a bed of nitroglycerin". edit:but like i said, i don't trade fx, so don't go to a bucket shop or something and start a 200:1 leveraged fx account
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Jan 29, 2010 22:36
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Christobevii3 posted:I dont like gold because its in the news in ads constantly. I'd rather play silver because of that and industrial uses too if the economy recovers. I really honestly just use it to go between cash or hard metal for my non vested money depending on the value of the dollar. I've been all cash for 2 months pretty much now. Just looking at silver again soon to sit in. I shorted silver around 16.50, and just covered 2/3rds of my short in silver at 15.07 yesterday, because I wasn't sure how today would go. I agree that it's time to start looking at silver for a buy, but you do not want to be catching falling knives. When crude broke 50 back in 08 I went long via leveraged ETFs, since it's clearly ridiculous that CL could drop below 50 bucks a barrel. Wrong. Try 35. Also silver is the completely ridiculous overleveraged version of gold. It might have more industrial use but the moves are usually 2x-3x more than gold. Look at yesterday; GLD drops 3%, SLV drops 6%. It's insanity. MrBigglesworth posted:Whats the deal on silver when buying in a coin store. A few years back when it was around 11ish I wanted to buy some, but they had this "Ill sell it to you for $4 over spot, making it $15/ounce. Coin dealers need to get paid somehow but they rip everyone off, just like those cash for gold people. For example, my brother decided to go to the mall "cash for gold" kiosk (not affiliated with the telemarketing one) and asked for poo poo and giggles how much they'd bid him for a krugerrand. The guy starts BSing and is like "Well since the krugerrand isn't 24k i'll give you 600 for it". Of course, even though they're 22k, they still have a total gold content of 1 oz, which would be worth closer to a grand. I'm sure you could find a decent one, but generally unless you know a guy, most pawn shops/coin dealers will try and sucker you if they think you're ignorant or if you're not buying 50oz of silver at a time. BTW, at the jeweler I go to, he generally charges spot+ 50 to 100 bucks for 1oz gold coin, depending on who you are. Even if you were buying, say, 50 oz of gold, it would still have a premium of 50 bucks/oz, since everyone needs to make money and you have to factor in shipping and whatnot. I think even ebay might be a little more cost effective, although I managed to find some lady with a bunch of auctions selling various 1oz assortments of pre-64 US silver coins for 20-25 bucks plus shipping. If you really want to buy physical silver, I would go through a reputable website and buy in bulk to save money.
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Feb 5, 2010 17:05
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Now I'm pissed at myself for covering my short in silver. For some reason I had it in my head that 15 was decent support for silver; totally wrong. Live and learn I guess. I did, however, add a short EURUSD position which is looking quite nice. However I'm kinda wondering why GBPUSD is lower percentagewise vs EURUSD, I don't think anything weird happened in the UK. Maybe I'm just reading way too much into 20 basis points. amitlu posted:Probably a stupid question, but when looking at the new accounts section for e-trade and TD Ameritrade I noticed it says you have to have employer information. What does one use if unemployed? You could not put it, or make something up. As long as you're not applying for margin and thus need to show that you have some sort of cash flow in case you get called, I don't think anyone actually cares about employment history so much as they care that you have cash to deposit. I hope you're not trying to daytrade with savings instead of looking for a job or anything crazy like that.
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Feb 5, 2010 20:12
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Limit Up posted:Just curious, I may have missed it but are you shorting physical or through the ETF? (SLV) Not a bad cover btw. Gonna pop Monday it looks like. SLV 4 lyfe. I'm pretty small time, it works for me. However, at 13:30 today I expected people to buy the dip when the spx hit 1045, but i didn't expect THAT much buying. Crazy trading day. MrBigglesworth posted:Even buying in Bulk on Apmex.com seems like a ripoff. Can I ask you why you want physical silver? From what you just said it seems like you want to buy physical product, and then sell it for spot when silver hits, say, 20 bucks. Much easier to buy the ETF than trading physical silver. Or hell, I just looked on ebay at junk silver coins. A roll of quarters ($10 face value/40 quarters/7.2 oz silver) is going for anywhere between 115-140 on ebay, plus shipping. So basically between 16-18 bucks/oz depending on auction. Which, considering the small quantity, is actually pretty good, compared to northwest territorial mint's price of 16.84/oz for 72 ounces of US silver coin. (http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver.php).
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Feb 6, 2010 03:02
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Haven't posted in this thread in a while. hope noone was long EUR or GBP this past month.I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:As for where to put money, I'm the wrong person to ask if you want a fun answer- I'm 50% TLT and 25% cash. Are you in TLT as just a "safe" place to put your money while earning a small dividend, or are you actually speculating on a bond rally? I'm interested because the 10 year yield is nearing a 4 handle and there's a lot of talk about bond vigilantes demanding more yield since there's so much supply. Additionally, I believe that if interest rates go up, it won't be as politically unfeasible as it was last June when TLT was about the same price. However, a lot of people have been saying that Treasuries are completely worthless, and thus that makes me want to buy them. That, and i'm sure the us govt would like the 10 year 50 basis points lower...
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Mar 29, 2010 16:04
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Wow I totally missed out on the awesomeness of Palm. I guess I was a year too early buying puts on that piece of poo poo. Also lol GGP, what are we gonna talk about next, buying lottery ticket calls on AIG or daytrading MTLQQ? Not that I'm above that, I just think it's funny.GET MONEY posted:I want to hedge some of my long EM/commodities exposure. Let's say the China bubble pops for whatever reason, oil slips and there's a negative demand shock through the resource sector. What would start outperforming? I don't buy gold for "flight to quality". As has been proven in the past (but may change/not necessarily happen) from such major events like 1987 and 2008, I believe treasuries will outperform relative to gold if there was a major drop. Pull up TLT vs GLD during 2008; TLT up 10%, GLD flat. Of course, there's the whole US debt situation and reckless spending that goldbugs love to talk about; but you have to keep in mind that in comparison to UK gilts and Eurozone bonds, the US still looks pretty decent. I mean hell the UK had a higher % of QE than we did. In terms of a bubble pop/mini recession, I would in theory do a couple pairs trades to try and hedge. For example, lets say the other PIIGS countries start circling the drain similar to Greece. Sell euros and buy pounds or dollars. Or if there is a drop in demand for commodities...outright short the commodity, or sell currency/bonds in countries with commodity exposure and buy US/GBP currency/bonds. With regards to equities...they're all lovely in a bubble pop, so the best you could hope for is relative performance, which I think is stupid unless you're an equity only mutual fund and you have no choice. In that case, what worked in 2008/2009? Mostly stuff like WalMart or Altria or whatnot. You could still try pairs trade like short Cheesecake Factory and buy McDonalds, but yeah if you legitimately have to hedge your portfolio you shouldn't be asking for advice on SA. However, the likelihood of major events in the US occurring doesn't seem that high to me...things are so boring lately. EU trouble is still ahead but that doesn't affect the S&P/emerging markets as drastically as a deflationary credit crisis like in 2008. Bigass Moth posted:Any advice on Silver holdings or mining companies? Also anecdotally I feel that silver is "small time" relative to gold (meaning more retail investors and goldbug-like speculators) and therefore I should short the hell out of it. As far as miners go, SLV is volatile enough for me so personally I avoid them.
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Apr 14, 2010 16:00
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asmallrabbit posted:Beyond all the other resources to explain how stocks and such work, is there a guide or resource on the basics of how trading for income works? I ask because while it seems like information on strategies and analyzing data etc is easy to find, I haven't found a good example of how to actually get started and what to look for. It's a zero-sum game. When you make money, someone loses it. Therefore, it's in the best people's interest to keep great moneymaking ideas to themselves, and thus you have to figure out everything for yourself, let alone secrets/strategies to success. If it was easy everyone would be doing it. To be well capitalized and doing it for real, and this is AFTER you learn the basis and practice and whatnot, and you're trying to makie money for rent/life/whatever, you need a bankroll of least 100k unless you still live in your mom's house or something. At the very very minimum you need at least 25k to get past daytrading limits for equities/options. Futures and fx I think you could get by trading a couple contracts with 25k, but that still qualifies as play money to most people. In terms of where to get commission info, any brokerage house will tell you what their rates are. ThinkorSwim is probably the most user-friendly IMO. How to figure out how much you "make" is way way way ahead of where you need to be. First you actually have to come up with a successful trading strategy...then you can worry about the commission and taxes. disclaimer: i do not trade for a living, nor do i have successful trading strategies...
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Apr 14, 2010 23:56
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You guys make great points re: zero sum game, except I was thinking more along the lines of FX and futures, since the original question asked was in regards to trading as a full time job. I feel that most daytraders trade the ES or CL or EUR/USD, as opposed to say, small cap biotech companies that jump 300%...not that those daytraders don't exist. Maybe I focus on macro or futures traders too much; I guess you could daytrade Citi stock or SPY options or whatever you want to as long as you had a strategy, but I believe things like liquidity and crazy price action are definitely determining factors. Assuming you need 2k a month to live (...in poverty), you either need a huge bankroll/margin so that the 5% jump in Citi counts for something other than lunch money, or you need to be ridiculously levered using futures or options or fx...or you need to be throwing darts at microcap biotech companies with your lunch money. I'm not even going to consider "investing", especially in equities as a way to make money in lieu of a full time job, unless you have a huge roll, in which case I'm sure you can find very talented people who can run your money for you. Semantics aside, my main point was that nobody is going to tell you their 1337 strategy because they can either a.)make money for themselves using magical method or b.)sell it. Everybody doesn't win. Unless you're willing to take time out of your schedule to show us how we all can win with you...
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Apr 15, 2010 17:23
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Sylink posted:Does Goldman Sachs look tempting to anyone after it stops going down from the recent hub bub. I don't think this will hurt them that much unless the SEC revokes their license to print money through investment banking. I mean, they're still a bulge bracket investment bank in like m&a and corporate finance and other non-trading activities. Not everything in investment banks revolve around prop desks and hedge funds. And even if there is a reputation decline, people will still want to do business with GS for financepenis++, as proven in Liar's Poker. fougera posted:I bought 950 shares of C before todays jump. Thats most of my portfolio (1 of 2 open positions) and I have no buying power left. I've run into extreme sellers remorse this past quarter and now I'm afraid to sell. At the same time I know securing profits is always a good thing and I need the cash to get in on other stocks. Bottom line: I'm still a newb and I would appreciate the thread's advice on recommended strategy here (should I leave only the profits on the table sooner rather than later?) and general help on when to sell/the correct mindset to have/etc. If you can't sleep at night or continually update your blackberry from 9-4 trying to get live quotes off CNBC mobile, you should probably lighten your position. To me at least, C is a total daytrading as well as swingtrading product, as opposed to an actual equity that you could/should invest in. It's something you can totally jump back into if you start getting hard thinking about volatility, so personally I would hit it and quit it on any move over 5%. Using my amateur google finance based TA bc i'm too lazy to use fibonnaci, it appears that resistance is heavy anywhere past 5, so you could also hold til 4.90 or so. Buy it back at 5 if you think it's gonna set a new 52wk high. Or better yet start gambling with some options by straight up buying some calls or selling calls on your position, but that's my degenerate side speaking.
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Apr 19, 2010 18:33
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This GS thing is kind of getting annoying. My impression from skimming FT Alphaville and other news sources (not CNBC) is that Paulson and Co wanted short subprime exposure, GS wanted to make money, and there were 50x as many people who wanted to be long mortgages. Therefore GS facilitates creating a CDO, an outside company picks the actual mortgages/tranches, and everyone throws their money down and places your bets. Correct me if i'm wrong, which I can be, but the only way this would be illegal is if GS misrepresented this security in order to make this CDO happen. And considering how bullish people were on housing a couple years back, and the fact that everything was A+++++ as rated by s&p/moodys (which at the time was considered reputable agencies), I have a hard time believing that GS could posssibly dissuade "sophisticated" investors from buying in even if GS wanted to. Don't get me wrong, The Fabulous Fab makes great news, but his behavior isn't really that different compared to other under-35 people involved in business, especially if they're involved in trading. Finally, is anyone short euros? I still have a position (ETF not fx which now i realize is stupid) and I'm tired of this bullshitting around! 1.29 on EURUSD by May or bust. MrBigglesworth posted:Oh there is no loving way I am touching BB with a stick. When I first saw those Redboxes popping up like weeds in every McDonald's/Walmart/Walgreens and more recently Netflix getting on any device connected to the internet I knew that BBs fate was soon to be sealed. This is one of the painfully obvious things that I realized that I also did not capitalize on by going long netflix/short blockbuster. adsgihsdgihd.
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Apr 23, 2010 16:58
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Also I decided to put on Constant Nonsense and Bull Crap and they still have the stupid 9 talking head box system. Then Tyler Mathisen asked Kevin Cook, some fx guy, how to make money off the Greek crisis, and he starts talking about actual ways to make money like getting into short euro futures or short EURUSD and the CNBC heads start cutting him off. I'm not surprised, but it's just another reason why I hate a channel with amateur not-really-an-economist Steve Liesman or beaker lookalike Dennis Kneale.
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Apr 23, 2010 17:17
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Short euros long treasuries  it's about time something worked.Also the Senate witch hunts are really starting to annoy me but yet I can't stop watching. MrBigglesworth posted:No, we are just puttering along, Greece shits the bed and then the market goes crazy. I just dont see the logic of Greece having problems to cause someone to go in and say, welp, better sell some of my holdings. Well Greece getting downgraded to junk and Portugal getting downgraded at essentially the same time is kind of a big deal and impacts eurozone companies/institutional investors that have exposure. Not to mention this was announced while the Euro exchanges are about to close. Hence, everyone (meaning euro and american institutional investors) runs to cover, sells equities, and buys treasuries/gilts/bunds to reduce risk. PsychoAndy fucked around with this message at 17:30 on Apr 27, 2010 |
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Apr 27, 2010 17:18
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The real question is, assuming Portugal/Greece downgrade isn't a catalyst for more to come, what equities would you buy on this pullback? Catch a falling knife with GS? Get into some fruit while it's down 2%? Maybe some CME/ICE once congress pushes thru more derivative reform, which should equal more business for exchanges?
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Apr 27, 2010 18:02
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I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:Wrote May 92 calls against my TLT position. Nice to see it come back but I don't see the yield on the 10-year dropping much past 3.7% without something exploding (and I don't mind being wrong if it does). First off, good call on the 10 year yield going from 4 to 3.75, as opposed to 4.25. I would agree, in that there's a lot of resistance on the TLT at 92ish, and I don't think people will freak out as extensively regarding Greece, unless they actually default and/or leave the Eurozone. Most of the damage is done/priced in, so I'm more inclined to look into selling treasuries or playing the range of 89-91 on the TLT.
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Apr 27, 2010 18:29
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Personally, I think the market just looking for a good reason to have a significant down day. All this rallying is making people (including me) uneasy. However I think there is too much positive pressure on the US economy to really slow it down. Agree, which is why I'm wondering if people are buying on the dip. But the Greek thing is kind of a big deal so I wouldn't just discount it as a dumb reason to cause a pullback. Also, after seeing late 2008-2009, I always enjoyed when the market would drop 1-1.5%, and then pull back to flat between 3-4PM.
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Apr 27, 2010 19:34
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Best CNBC day...no commentators other than my BFF Rick Santelli and a couple sound bytes from the others.Cheesemaster200 posted:err, well scratch that idea... The Greek thing is a marathon, not a sprint. Today was a ginormous move in fx, and most of the action hasn't been countered by Asia. I'm hoping they sell EURJPY but I'm guessing that there will be some knife-catching overnight.
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Apr 27, 2010 21:29
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I watched this from 11 to at least 7 or 8, and the biggest concept I thought the Senators discussed, other than the sports book analogy, was the ethics of market-making while having a directional position on the market, as well as "full disclosure" in selling synthetic products. I don't think the senators quite understand how institutional investing works (idiots in charge of money may sometimes may want to speculate in things they don't know anything about), or that at the time there were plenty of people still bullish on housing, or hell, even the concept of caveat emptor. I am glad that Tom Colburn at least tried to call out GS for martyring the Fabulous Fab with irrelevant romantic email interludes. Clearly, all of this testimony wasn't to prove GS right or wrong (altho they tried), but to put them on the record on certain points in order to use as evidence for constructing financial regulation legislation. Anyone who's read Liar's Poker knows that all of these things occurred 20 years ago; the funny thing is, after reading it over and over again, the themes are essentially the same. Creating synthetic derivatives (the advent of MBS), creating lots of debt (then junk bonds, now mortgages), greed, how investment banks screw clients, etc. BABBY where do you get that ABACUS was a bunch of CDS? Isn't ABACUS a structured CDO that GS/Paulson and Co bought CDS protection on? As far as I know, a CDO is based on an asset backed security (mortgages), thus creating a synthetic derivative. Then, you obtain CDS protection/risk on that. The question of fraud directly relating to ABACUS relates to the picking of the underlying assets to create ABACUS, not CDS on ABACUS...although the CDS part is part of why everyone is up in arms.
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Apr 28, 2010 06:07
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Cheesemaster200 posted:This 11:30AM nose dive is starting to get old. Apparently Spain getting downgraded has an effect on our markets. Like increasing the price of silver WTF. Speaking of precious metals, gold is lookin pretty good over the week, so I'm preparing for it to drop like 50 bucks in a day.
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Apr 28, 2010 16:57
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^^^ nice blog, very anecdotal style, i like it. I'll be the first to admit I bot GS at 152 three days ago. My mistake was not selling it yesterday for 8 bucks profit$$$. Other dumb mistakes include an attempt to short silver around 18 as measured by SLV. Someone asked about dividend producing stocks, MO is great. Best time to enter is right after dividend, but that's a bit late. The biggest risk obviously is introduction of tobacco legislation, but the admin is a little tied up with other issues right now. I'd like to get into BP bc i <3 dividends, but as I just talked about with falling knives, I might wait a bit.
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Apr 30, 2010 20:46
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Covered my euro short on the expectation that when Europe opens tomorrow EUR will catch bids. It'll be a slow grind but I anticipate a correction of this correction.Dr. Eldarion posted:Dropped quite a bit again today. I'm really itching to pull the trigger on it. In retrospect RIG was/is probably the better buy since I don't believe they have liability and the actual platform is probably insured. The problem is that I am heavily blinded by BPs hot hot dividend action.
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May 3, 2010 22:41
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Dr. Jackal posted:godamn should've closed my positions until next month since we all know Greece is going to make the market poo poo itself until further notice.  i'm still short silver/long treasuries. but i honestly thought that the euro would catch a bid today bc I think it's way oversold. Additionally, on Fast Money last Friday, Dennis Gartman basically said for johnny retail to buy GLD and sell FXE. I don't disagree with this idea (personally I prefer long sterling/short euro than being a goldbug) but I also don't like trades getting too crowded. Ultimately though, I prob shouldn't worry as much, considering how much the dollar kept dropping last year even though everyone was short the dxy. Euro goes down forever is the new Dollar goes down forever trade.
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May 4, 2010 15:35
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Watching Power Lunch just to hear the FM halftime report and Rick Santelli. Santelli basically talks about how EURUSD was trying to break 1.32 the past month, and now we're at 1.30, and if we see more anti-bailout sentiment, he sees the next support at 1.2450. I thought it was very interesting! What does Michelle Caruso-Cabrera do? "ohhh....uh...that's interesting...oh hey scott wapner tell us about the Qs!" edit: also, forget the S&P, I can't believe commodities are getting hit bad. Are copper and volatility the canary in the coal mine? Are we back to pre-Bear Stearns 2008? Jacques LeVert posted:I'm not really an active investor but what are the odds of the euro collapsing or being split into a northern and southern "euro"? There's so much garbage in Southern Europe it's a no brainer either Portugal, Spain or perhaps Italy will beg the north for money in the short to medium term. Not to mention the absolutely ghastly financial state of the UK, Belgium and Ireland. Since most people here I assume are in the US, let me throw up an analogy. Pretend the federal government doesn't exist, but we still have 50 sovereign state governments, and we all signed a pact to have a similar currency and collectively set economic policy. Now, let's pretend that Cali got downgraded to junk because they're issuing IOUs, and Arizona/Florida is on the verge of getting downgraded due to people bk-ing from housing and rampant unemployment. 1.) If you were another state, would you vote to support/"bail out" Cali by either buying Cali debt or issuing debt in your name for them? MA might be all like "o hay you guys please help you promised!!!" and Texas might be more like "we have our own problems, and we don't feel like we should pay for your mistakes and dumbass legislation, so F off." 2.) If you were looking at this from across the atlantic, would you want to buy that currency, where agendas are different, economic decision making is extremely fragmented and polarized between the haves (germany, my fake version of MA/Texas) and the have-nots (PIIGS, my fake/real version of Cali)? I don't really have an idea to be honest, but I do think there is a chance of Germany pulling out (since from what it sounds like they are the most conservative/have the most money) and that would be an event of epic proportions. PsychoAndy fucked around with this message at 18:30 on May 4, 2010 |
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May 4, 2010 18:26
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Christobevii3 posted:Cramer is calling to buy the dips in the market on housing stocks today wtf??? Toll brothers so hot right now. I think i owned puts at 22 on it last year...and it's still around there. Clearly the demand for overpriced lovely mcmansions has been undervalued by The Street and thus the new normal is not priced in. I immediately shut off CNBC right after fast. I cringe at the intro music.
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May 5, 2010 06:07
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Word on the street according to FT that this was a huge program trading fuckup on Proctor and Gamble. Also I can't get on my interwebs broker. I was hoping to see an actual circuit breaker tripping day...sorta.
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May 6, 2010 20:34
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VH4Ever posted:That was another question actually, is it possible to buy ACTUAL gold and silver, gold and silver "futures" or both? I'd prefer to buy actual gold/silver. It shouldn't be hard to find 90% US silver coins (as in $1/.50/quarters/dimes) or small silver bars on ebay. A pawn shop or jeweler could also hook you up too, for stuff like 1oz gold coins like krugerrands or double eagles. You would not play with futures, unless you want to take delivery of 100 ounces of gold per contract at a certain point in time. Which, as of now, would be worth about $120,000. While I think it's important to hold physical precious metals if you're a high net worth individual, a lot of people will try and convince normal people that the dollar will be worthless and that gold/silver is where it's at. There's 2 problems with that: 1.) At what point would you sell gold? $2000/oz? $3000/oz? If it ever got to that point you'd probably have other things to worry about...like finding a job that pays at least 3x as much, or moving to a more stable country (i don't know of any given this scenario). Also, who would have the money or would want to buy your metals? 2.) If the dollar did collapse, and there wasn't another currency, wouldn't things like food, water, and a knowledgebase relative to surviving like a 3rd world person be a lot more useful? The only reason why I'm answering this is because I hate goldbugs, otherwise I would've given a pithy answer like BABBY. Cheesemaster200 posted:What are you going to do with gold bars? Man if I had 500k to spare I would totally buy a London good delivery bar just chillin under my bed or something.
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May 9, 2010 04:38
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I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:I haven't got a clear sense of the loan package, are there austerity requirements for countries who take advantage of it? Am I naive for thinking this feels like TARP without the "everyone must take part, everyone must feel pain" stipulation? Well I'm glad I covered EURUSD on Friday. I mean, the short sentiment was extreme2themax, it had to pop, but I'd probably start a new short at 1.3120 depending on price action. However, I'm not too sure about EuroTARP. (is there a cool acronym for it yet?) Will this be just like our TARP where the market tanked upon thinking about it for more than 3 minutes? Furthermore, I haven't read about this extensively, but are they going to monetize 2009 QE style? I guess we'll find out more in a couple hours.
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May 10, 2010 05:53
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Ravarek posted:So what does this massive Eurozone bailout really do? The ECB is going to buy Eurozone sovereign bonds at lower-than-market yields? low yields = high bond price. therefore buying at lower-than-market yields = paying way more for bonds than the market thinks they're worth. how to pay for it? print euros. does that really solve anything? yes, as long as you're willing to see euros decline in value relative to other currencies. and as long as everyone stops flipping houses and not having expensive govt programs. will that work? prob not but we'll see. now wishing i went short eurusd at 1.29 and long silver below 18. unfortunately i don't have much time to trade anymore.
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May 11, 2010 22:12
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MayakovskyMarmite posted:Talked about MO above, but there are some great dividend stocks that are really cheap. I loved MO at 15, and I like it around 20. Outperform the SPY with hot hot dividend action but the huge risk is in litigation or legislation. Thankfully the Obama administration is a little too tied up in other issues to really be doing anything. I finally am flat on my long volatility trade, which was my biggest 9/11 never forget trade ever. Yes I owned VXX; would have probably had more fun burning money, or better yet, buying TLT in the high 80s. edit: anyone willing to take the over on 1.20 EURUSD by the end of the month? PsychoAndy fucked around with this message at 04:33 on May 21, 2010 |
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May 21, 2010 04:27
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zacd posted:beginning paper trader here... I generally hold positions for a couple of days to weeks. In terms of targets/goals, I would say that's what separates the boys from the men if you know what I mean. Many times I've held positions that have reached my goal, and instead of kicking it to the curb and taking profit, I'll irrationally hold on hoping for more profit, only to fail. If you can set realistic goals, like I'm gonna sell EURUSD and my goal is 1.15 by July due to x,y,and z reasons, then that would be good. It would be great if you can actually stick to it and cover, because I think most people would be like "it dropped to 1.15, it'll clearly go to 1.10"...and that's when you run into trouble due to short covering/breaking news/oversold conditions/etc. Obviously depending on market condition it could drop lower, but my main point is you can be totally right about direction and price target, but if you don't have the discipline it's not gonna work. But those are just my thots on the matter and I'd like to hear what others have to say.
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Jun 8, 2010 05:10
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So...frontrun the fed on pomo days, or sell interest rate futures? I'm tempted to sell eurodollar futures bc really how much lower can rates go. Otoh, I remember qe1 and shorting the fed initially would've been a bloodbath.
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Oct 8, 2010 07:30
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Screw gold, silver is the one going parabolic. The last time I shorted silver was years ago, but I'm really starting to consider it at 30 bucks an ounce. As we all know, it's the poor man's/retail/cheapskate version of gold, which will lend to much more volatility once it starts falling due to x reason. A little OT, but what's the bid/ask spread for silver at a real dealer, i.e. not some jackass sitting at a folding table in the middle of the mall bidding 50% of spot. At 30 bucks an ounce, I'm looking to sell some really crappy silver quarters for melt value.
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Dec 29, 2010 19:23
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Holy poo poo im pretty sure this scenario was covered in liars poker. If only I followed alexander's advice about buying yen.
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Mar 16, 2011 22:42
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| # ¿ May 3, 2024 02:22 |
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I've been long TLT since early 2009. Time to close out? I mean I remember when everyone was saying the 10 year yield couldn't drop below 2%, then 1.75%, and now it's at a solid 1.47%. How much stronger can US govt bonds get? Transition into a touch of TBT? Additionally, with bonds being so strong shouldn't equities be more in the hole than they already are?
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Jun 1, 2012 18:00
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