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Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!

Free Gucci Mane posted:

There's probably an obvious answer here, but can someone explain to me why all the mining/precious metal company stocks jumped so high today.

You did see how badly they got pummelled over the past two weeks, right? A day of modest gains really isn't all that much after getting absolutely slaughtered for days in a row. Gold was at 1158 in early January, US Steel 65, and Alcoa 17.50, for example. Going back up to ~1100, 47, and 13.39, respectively after a big rally is a drop in the bucket compared to the price fluctuations they have been experiencing. You can also factor in a strong earnings report from Exxon and a rise in the manufacturing index to fueling today's rally, but even as a non technical guy, I would say that barring exceptional news or circumstances, stocks aren't going to just keep freefalling like they have the past few weeks, and will eventually bounce back (whether temporarily or not) in rallies like this due to bargain hunting and what not.

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Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!
Fidelity has pretty solid customer service and execution, and a wide range of tools, information, and data to play with when building and analyzing a portfolio. I've been using them as long as I've been in the market, though this new flat 7.95 commission doesn't look to change things too much on my end. I actually had a sweet deal for a while where I was given free trades for X amount of months, though that sadly expired recently.

They've never gotten any attention in this forum, and I imagine that's because they market themselves primarily to experienced and dedicated traders/investors. Historically, their tiered commission system priced out smaller investors, and it will be interesting to see what kind of business Fidelity will attract with discounted commissions offered across the board.

Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!
Pretty brutal day if you're heavily into commodity stocks like I am. Have some spare cash though, so put in some bottom feeding orders for E and TOT, and also kind of tempted to pick up some EXC. We'll see how those work out.

Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!
What the hell? This is surreal. Was looking at EXC and saw it go from 40 to 30 to 20 to 39 on Google Finance. I hope that was a bug?!

Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!

pr0k posted:

I just added to my NOV position at 39.90.

Sold that pig today for a very small profit at open (overpaid for it a while back, sat on it hoping for a major increase that never came) and don't plan on looking back. I like the company, but the stock, and really those of most of the oil services sector has been dead in the water forever. What was your original cost basis? I may get back in this collapse keeps going and NOV tests 30, but that probably won't happen.

Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!

Pug posted:

Outsider looking at daytrading. How much starting capital do you need to be successful? How many months of education would you say is also recommended / required?

Considering that the SEC's de facto guideline is $25k minimum (i.e. the minimum balance you need to be able to maintain in a pattern day trader account), that's about the smallest amount of capital you should have immediately available and able to lose without pain in order to be trading regularly. Doing so for a living is a whole other story and I wouldn't even feel comfortable trying it with a small 6 figure balance.

Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!

ChubbyEmoBabe posted:

I'm so gonna invest a few hundred billion tomorrow to get you banned

Just don't blow so much money on dumb speculative plays that you end up overdrafting your bank account multiple times and have to start a thread about it.

Here's to a market rally tomorrow.

Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!

Dr. Jackal posted:

fffffffffffffffffffffff hope you put money where your predictions were

Well as my smartass callout implied, he did start a thread about overdrafting the hell out of his account, so I don't think he has any... :ssh:

Really tempted to go bargain hunting in the metals or coal sectors, but I already have a good chunk of change invested in materials. At least I have an ex-date hitting in my TNK position if nothing else happens.

Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!

pr0k posted:

:saddowns:

National Oilwell Varco, Inc. Co
(NYSE: NOV)

Real-Time: 33.89 Down 4.24 (11.12%) 3:43PM EDT


What is this bullshit. hosed up oil wells mean MORE business. Retooling and fixing rigs to get recertified to drill or whatever. More. MORE BUSINESS. WHAT THE gently caress.

So glad I dumped NOV for a small gain, that stock has been crap over the past two years or so. I may buy back in below 30, though I'd probably go bottom feeding on BP and RIG first.

Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!

MrBigglesworth posted:

Sorry to get back onto Dividends but here is my reasoning for looking into them so hard. Right now Im broke as poo poo so it doesnt matter to me much other than research to invest in a bit later.

However, my mom has about $50k in a bond that she makes a measely $250 per month cash on.

Im running numbers on these various div paying stocks and calculate stuff from around $500 to $800 a month. Even though it would be in 3 month pay outs, on a monthly average that is significantly more than $250. Im wondering the feasibility of having her create a dividend income basket divided up between 3 to 4 stocks so not everything will be in one and have some slight diversification.

Should I even bother or would any one recommend a div basket of 3 to 5 stocks that would be recommended? Im wanting to throw CMO in as a definite, possibly some LINE or AGNC too.

Why not go bottom feeding on oil? I bought some E and TOT a little before their May dividends paid out, so you may pass at the moment, though I think TOT, in particular, is a great buy at those levels. If you're feeling ballsy, you may look at REP, which is especially cheap due to Spain's role in the European credit crisis, though that also means more risk of tightened margins and possible reduction of the dividend as cash becomes tight.

Haven't been involved with them since my HTE position got bought out, but Canadian Royalty Trusts like PWE and PGH have always been reliable monthly dividend providers. The concern here is an upcoming change in Canada's tax treatment of income trusts that takes effect in 2011, which will remove a lowered tax rate they enjoyed, and obviously the increased tax burden will reduce their ability to pay dividends.

Bulk shipping is still underwater (pun intended) without much hope for the immediate future, but if you don't mind some risk, you could look at oil tanker shipping, e.g. FRO, NAT, or OSG. I hold TNK myself. Freight demand is still low, and that hasn't been improving much, but those companies have steadily been increasing their dividends over the past few quarters. Don't expect to see much capital appreciation or the ridiculous double digit percentage dividends of ~2007-2008, but I think you can hold any of these companies as a reliable source of income.

Large cap telecom (VZ, T, DT), tobacco (MO, LO, RAI, PM), drug companies (PFE, BMY, LLY), and utilities (DUK, D, EXC, ED) are always cited as classic sectors for dividend stocks, though I haven't spent much time looking at those and will defer to others who have. I have been tempted to take a position on EXC, given that it's trading at a 52 week low and has sigificant nuclear exposure that may allow it to benefit from Obama's pro nuclear stance, but I've held off since I've been preoccupied with potential bargains in oil at the moment.

Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!

Hobologist posted:

$250 a month is 3 grand a year, which is a 6% yield on 50k which I think is pretty good for a safe bond these days (It is safe, isn't it?). 800 a month is 9600 a year, or nearly 20%, and no such stock exists.

And remember what I said about CMO and other mortgage companies, that their huge earnings will last only as long as interest rates are artificially low.

Yeah I wouldn't touch CMO and its ilk with a ten foot pole, especially for something in an older person's savings/retirement account. Those absolute monster dividends are never absolutely safe, whereas there are many reliable large caps that have shown a proven and sustainable history of 5-7% dividends over many years. You also want to consider that smaller companies like CMO are going to be more prone to dramatic swings, which often occur in tandem with fluctuations in the dividend (i.e. if they cut it, your principal is probably getting slammed too), and you don't see as much dramatic movement in the larger cap income stocks.

Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!

MrBigglesworth posted:

Im using it as an example, forget the company right now, Im just wanting to know if my math is correct by using them.

Math is fine, obviously you also account for tax after the fact, but yeah. Only thing is not every company pays dividends at the same time increment, so you just do your research and adjust the calculations for your average monthly yield based on that. Plus you were the one who mentioned CMO as a "definite" a few posts up; nobody's trying to pile on you, just addressing that remark ;)

The "catch" is that the cost of each dividend payment is subtracted from the company's share price as it gets paid out. So if OSG paid its $.44 dividend today, the share price would accordingly drop to $36.59 to account for that, and if you bought it at $37.03 before the ex-date, you would have the same amount of capital you started with, only $.44/share of it would now have been effectively converted from stock to cash. The main benefit of dividends is that the automatic release of cash consistently takes some money off the table and protects some of your capital as you hold it. A high beta growth stock you held indefinitely could double and go down to zero without leaving you a dime from its glory days, whereas a dividend stock will constantly kick out some cash to you, so even if the share price were to fall significantly one day, you would have at least generated some revenue from dividends.

And I just threw some cash into MT to swing trade with. Let's hope I get a chance to dump it at ~$30 next week.

Tom Rakewell fucked around with this message at 21:12 on Jun 4, 2010

Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!

MrBigglesworth posted:

Yea I am up on Ex Dates and the drop the day after, tax implications and the different pay dates. CMO would make a smaller amount of the basket as the % is so high.

This is something more for my stuff to research as to generate quarterly income over time in addition to regular buy and hold stock investments.

Im gonna throw the idea at her and see what she thinks but would never do it just with the highest only paying dividends etc. It just seems that if the math is correct with $50,000 there is better potential for income over $250 a month.

$250/month = $3000/year= 6% annual return. Especially with interest rates where they are, that is a very respectable yield, particularly if you're just holding a stock. You're not going to make a lot more money without investing your capital in more risky ways.

Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!

MrBigglesworth posted:

I have a few stocks Id like to buy from time to time but dont have multiple thousands of dollars to do so each and every time. I apologize that I am not as rich as you. :negative:

It has been said here again and again, but commenting on undercapitalization is not making fun of you for not being super rich or whatever. Yes, not being able to meet a $2500 balance means you're severely undercapitalized (add a 0 and most people would still call you undercapitalized), but don't take it personally. Trading commissions operated on a fixed cost basis and not a percentage basis, so trading with a smaller sum of money means commissions eat up a much bigger percentage of your return. This makes trading for a profit, which is difficult enough, significantly more difficult, because you have to make a greater percentage on each trade in order to get some returns.

Trading isn't like poker, where you can start with next to nothing and slowly grind out a large bankroll. The odds are stacked against you if you try to trade undercapitalized, and it's more likely than not your bankroll will be eaten up by commissions. It's better to save up and build a roll through your day job or whatever source of income you have and leave the trading alone until you have enough money to play around. That's what your average individual investor does; it's not like everyone here just got handed a few hundred grand to piss around in the market.

Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!

Thomson posted:

I'm not sure how much longer the TSLA gravy train will last--I got in at 17.85, and again at 25, and now i'm not sure whether I want in at 30 (when I sell the 17.85 lot). Maybe people are forgetting that this company hasn't actually made money and their only hope (right now) is an $80k roadster.

Did you cash out when it broke 30? TSLA just closed well off the high of the day, and it looks like it's going to be a bumpy ride no matter which way it goes. Congrats to the people who made bank off the IPO; I personally couldn't handle the volatility.

Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!

No. 9 posted:

What does someone suggest for periods longer than day trading but not investing -- I'm talking weeks or months at max.

Follow the market?

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Tom Rakewell
Aug 24, 2004
Check out my progress!

Free Gucci Mane posted:

I just got turned down for a margin account at Tradeking because I don't have a record of full-time employment (I'm in college, working only during the summer). Is that pretty much par for the course for online brokers? The frustrating thing is that I don't even want to borrow on margin, all I want to do is shortsell and get rid of that annoying 3-day unsettled funds restriction.

Lol shorting is for idiots or people who have the capital to do such things. You need to have money to be able to cover for your mistakes when you short stocks that go up when you make the wrong decision. Either get the capital to cover your decisions or buy puts or recognize that you can't just short out of the blue when you have a bare minimum of capital to work with.

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