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I feel like as long as the Fed keeps increasing the money supply, valuations are going to go up and it's just not going to make sense.
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Jan 18, 2020 04:47
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| # ¿ May 17, 2024 02:18 |
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Another take: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/01/18/in-the-stock-market-its-become-apple-microsoft-and-alphabet-vs-everyone-else.html
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Jan 18, 2020 16:36
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Lambert posted:When the end actually is nigh, canned beans and medicine are going to be way more valuable for trade-in than gold coins. I feel like cartons of cigarettes are going to be my ticket to wherever the rich people are. My medium term plan is coffee beans. My long term plan is pornography.
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Feb 24, 2020 16:25
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looks like the markets are in turmoil
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Feb 24, 2020 16:38
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boy i sure am tired of all of these markets in turmoil
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Feb 26, 2020 18:26
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Every day I play chicken with my TLT position and every day I've shrugged my shoulders an held on but jfc.
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Mar 6, 2020 16:12
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I feel a little gross about how much money I've made off of TLT.
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Mar 9, 2020 14:51
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Agronox posted:From "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator," written nearly a hundred years ago. This passage is burned into my memory. The whole book is interesting but this little bit (I won't quote it all) has been incredibly useful to me in terms of not screwing things up: I tried reading reading 'Reminiscences' but it just never made sense to me because it just seemed like he often simply just had an information advantage, tripped over his own leveredged dick and then basically scammed people. And yet everyone says that they learned so much from it. It's kind of like everyone who got into investment banking because 'Wall Street' was so cool. And even the parts that were useful, like you mentioned, just seemed like hindsight-tinted aphorisms.
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Mar 9, 2020 14:55
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https://twitter.com/AskRobinhood/status/1237016846282280961
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Mar 9, 2020 15:24
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This is absolutely nuts
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Mar 12, 2020 16:48
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Very curious what the last half hour of trading will be like today.
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Mar 12, 2020 19:27
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Man, stocks, 10-yr yield and gold are all down again. People are just moving to cash, poo poo's weird.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:57
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I've been thinking about this, and I don't think we're anywhere close to the bottom. Kind of the way I felt about this is that the stock market and economy could have basically blooped along without an exogenous shock. I don't even pretend to understand anything beyond the basics of ~*complex systems*~ but complexity allows a system to be robust to smaller shocks, a demise which would otherwise be more likely but softer, but when the end finally comes, it is swift and catastrophic in a more complex system. More to the point, I just don't think the inevitable outcome of this debt binge coupled with an insanely fragile labor market and a worldwide supply chain has been priced in. To that end, I think the 2nd order derivative of bad news is positive. The news is getting worse and rate that it is getting worse is growing. The news is only going to get worse from here on out and the behavior is going to cascade. Anyway that was pretty obtuse but I had to type it out. I've really been trying to talk myself out of doom and gloom as far as the markets are concerned, but man it's hard to see anyone looking at the news, valuations and the general S&P 500 trend, and saying 'yeah now I'm ready to buy some stock'. Anyway we'll see how things go tomorrow. I also could be really wrong and in two weeks basically everyone who's not carnival cruises is like 'no yeah we have not had a dip in sales'.
bollig fucked around with this message at 01:38 on Mar 13, 2020 |
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Mar 13, 2020 01:24
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Would love an invite thanks
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Jun 24, 2020 17:35
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I don't know how interested in the treasury markets you guys are but I found this interesting: http://www.capitalspectator.com/has-the-fed-launched-a-yield-curve-control-policy-for-treasuries/ quote:Formally, the Fed isn’t targeting yields, although the recent flat-lining of the 10-year yield suggests otherwise. With a few exceptions, the 10-year rate has been unusually stable since April, holding in a tight 0.6%-0.7% range except for one short-lived spike to 0.91%. 
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Jul 10, 2020 12:52
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pmchem posted:the fed has been very transparent about their treasury bond actions in both FOMC minutes and various interviews. the actual schedule and record of actions is here: Agreed, but I just find it hard/time consuming to parse and I thought picerno's take was pretty good. What is also interesting fed wise as well is that their balance sheet is smaller now over the past few weeks.
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Jul 10, 2020 19:47
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These are pretty cool times we live in
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Jan 27, 2021 11:38
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drunken officeparty posted:Whoever bought the 482.85 should make them give them a paper stock certificate and frame it I learned the term for this, basically buying the absolute highest contract in a run, the other day: the devil's bushel
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Jan 28, 2021 23:45
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I have a lot of issues with Bitcoin but one of the main ones is that it's really hard to get any sort of reasonable analysis on it that isn't just psycho-nonsense. It's kind of like trying to read about gold but all you get are gold-bugs. At its core, Bitcoin was meant to be a political statement and it's pretty hard to get past that. Like the whole point was that fractional reserve banking was too volitile which I find to be a really astounding lack of understanding of the history of monetary economics. But I'll get back to my greater point you have to basically wade through the Dunning-Kruger version of the Venture Capitalists congratulating themselves twitter feed in order to find anything useful and even then the sample size as far as our time series is concerned is extremely small, even by contemporary standards. And even then it's all just ones and zeros. The only thing it can claim to be is just a manifestation of wasted energy. I hope I've made my point that I find the whole exercise in theory and practice to be morally and practically loathesome. However, there are very clear patterns that can be exploited, in my opinion. I think that over the next year or so the price of bitcoin will rise to roughly 100-120k. Basically companies will have boardrooms of people shrieking about how other companies are buying bitcoin and they should too. And there will probably be a bitcoin ETF. Then I think there will be some sort of exogenous event (like Mt. Gox getting hacked) and the price will drop by two orders of magnitude over 6 months or so. I imagine this will almost certainly have something to do with Tether. I think it's easy to joke about Bitcoin being a scam or whatever, but Tether is either an insane fraud or one of the craziest money-laundering situations out there. And it is basically backing up the bulk of Bitcoin's price at this point. Anyway, I am long MSTR/RIOT/MARA and I decided I'm giving the profits of whatever happens to some sort of climate change action funds.
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Feb 14, 2021 15:43
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$420.70 if I'm not too late
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Feb 25, 2021 14:12
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This is honestly so much fun
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Feb 25, 2021 19:53
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I bought a share of GME way too high, mainly just to feel something. And I held onto it so in like 30 years I could tweet about how I had finally realized profit on it or something but here we go.
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Mar 9, 2021 18:29
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lol gently caress me I'm in the green on gamestop now
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Mar 10, 2021 18:07
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https://twitter.com/MadFHatter/status/1370144966366875655
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Mar 12, 2021 11:03
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HamsterPolice posted:Its insane how expensive the FT still is. 40 bucks a month for digital. My wife got it in print for her work for the beginning of the lockdown and I was in heaven. I looked up how much it would cost to continue and almost choked. I now split a digital subscription with a friend.
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Mar 14, 2021 19:27
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pmchem posted:fidelity's director of global macro casually predicting $2m-$70m BTC by 2034. fidelity has registered a BTC ETF for approval with SEC. https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1382026424014548995?s=20 Here is one the few articles/modes of thinking that sort of guides how I think about it: https://hcburger.com/blog/powerlaw/index.html The guy that writes it is like not a complete psycho and honestly his whole argument is that using a simple log on the y axis is not enough, but you also have to apply a log to the x axis, and then you have a linear map. And his whole argument is that if you only think of the price logarithmically, then you are being overly optimistic. So his model puts a price ceiling of $2.5m per bitcoin with a floor of $500k. So then on top of that basically every ~*halvening*~ the prices seems to power-law its way up from the lower regions to the top of the range over the course of a year-year and a half. That is my model for bitcoin and my only wish is that my broker had supported bitcoin. Literally the only way I could buy bitcoin would be to use cash at a loving bitcoin atm. I'll stop bitching about bitcoin but there you go.
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Apr 14, 2021 17:57
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Ah poo poo gurufocus no longer let's you see stats and poo poo without a free trial/ account
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Apr 14, 2021 18:40
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Don't really know where else to post this but I just had my first official double bagger on price returns alone: CC. It was right on the edge before earnings. With dividends it certainly was a double bagger before today.
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May 5, 2021 18:30
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:
Definitely going to trim it. I'm going to have to sort of reassess how far I want to go with it. I don't know if this was/is still the case but a lot of AIs had trouble with CC as a ticker because in a lot of forums people use CC as an abbreviation for covered call.
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May 5, 2021 20:44
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Subvisual Haze posted:I enjoyed this article on how passive index funds may be providing huge support to meme stocks after they initially bounce. I don't really know if you follow Mike Greene but this is sort of the theme behind his investing right now, in both directions fwiw. This is sort of what Michael Burry has been hinting at as well. Meaning that as passive grows bigger, and by his calculations not that much bigger, it's just going to be so much of this just constantly.
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Jun 1, 2021 22:33
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https://mobile.twitter.com/GunjanJS/status/1400045882591133697
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Jun 2, 2021 17:24
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Aw yeah son: would definitely get one of the old school ones but they don't ship those
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Jul 2, 2021 14:05
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I have a question about the DIX, specifically about one of the ways buying=shorting. I definitely get at a top-down level how a buy can be a short, from a market maker's perspective. But I'm having some trouble with a passage from this article:quote:E.g., if you ask Broker Bill to get you 10,000,000 shares of ENE, he might slowly buy up those shares over the course of a week (or ask somebody smart to do it for him), then short-sell the shares into your account as soon as he's done. A few days later, once the shares actually settle into his account, Bill has zero shares of ENE and a few bucks in commission. But in the meantime, you didn't have to wait for all the formalities - the broker handled it all for you. Like I understand settlement periods and poo poo but the "short-sell the shares into your account". Like, in order to quickly get them into your account he creates a transaction where he's on the other side of it (you are long, he's short)? While he's waiting for everything to settle, like the actual transactions? So that you don't have to wait for it to settle? I feel like I'm really close to understanding it and even typing it out has helped.
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Dec 28, 2021 01:54
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It is hard for me to describe what I feel when I am out and about, as a shareholder in MNST, seeing people wearing Monster Energy gear. I just love it. Saw a dude with M tattoos the other day. Just an all-around wonderful feeling. Also on the subject of tobacco, loving everybody still smokes in Central Europe, at least France and Switzerland, by my count. Quite astounding.
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Jul 7, 2022 20:55
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pmchem posted:this thread is hilarious This is awesome.
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Nov 4, 2022 20:25
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| # ¿ May 17, 2024 02:18 |
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Tradingview has started their Black Friday sale. It's a great deal imho.
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Nov 21, 2022 13:39
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