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Don Wrigley
Jun 8, 2006

King O Frod
Welcome to the forum Limit Up -- I love your attitude. I think in the hundreds of pages of the old thread and the few pages of the new one, you're the first one I've seen admitting to some consistent losses (while I'm sure that 90% of the people have the same experience, just don't like to admit it).

Serious question for you though--you've been trading for 11 years, and just joined a forum to learn about it now?

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Don Wrigley
Jun 8, 2006

King O Frod

Janin posted:

this is the first time a stock I've wanted's gone up so fast over a weekend.

It's never happened before, so it won't happen in the future!

Bro, I go 20 miles over the speed limit and have never gotten a ticket!

Don Wrigley
Jun 8, 2006

King O Frod

I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:

Markets do go down, right?

Yes, in fact they did for about a year and a half straight starting in late 2007. Short memories...

Don Wrigley
Jun 8, 2006

King O Frod

ANGRY_KOREA_MAN posted:


I opened my brokerage account and threw my darts at three of the highest rated stocks on Motley Fool just to get my feet wet since I had never bought before. I started with 500 dollars and started buying up some stuff.


This is something you definitely should not be doing.

Don Wrigley
Jun 8, 2006

King O Frod

Hobologist posted:

SEC accuses Goldman Sachs of fraud

So there is a crack in Goldman's armor, but I don't see why that should take the entire market with it.

The report said that investors lost about $1 billion. So in order to make the investors 100% whole, Goldman would have to take a 1 time charge of $1 billion, plus probably a couple million in penalties or the like.

And for this, they immediately lose about $13 billion in market cap. Nobody said the market was rational in the short term.

Don Wrigley
Jun 8, 2006

King O Frod

PsychoAndy posted:

I don't think this will hurt them that much unless the SEC revokes their license to print money through investment banking. I mean, they're still a bulge bracket investment bank in like m&a and corporate finance and other non-trading activities. Not everything in investment banks revolve around prop desks and hedge funds. And even if there is a reputation decline, people will still want to do business with GS for financepenis++, as proven in Liar's Poker.

Actually, 2/3 of Goldman's profit comes from trading, though nobody knows the split between prop trading and client trading (I'd guess it's more of the former). That being said, the market reaction is a total overreaction, as usual, and this incident won't have nearly enough impact to warrant the hit the stock has taken. I read an article that they're going to have to take a maximum $700 million charge, which they'll be able to spread over several years, while the company's market cap has fallen tens of billions of dollars.

You may want to argue reputation, but does anybody really think that anybody will remember this a year from now?

Don Wrigley
Jun 8, 2006

King O Frod

f2a posted:

I seem to remember someone getting hold of some audited records of GS's prop trading, which suggested it was pretty much unprofitable. I'd be surprised if they're making most in prop given how easy it must be for them market making, what with much of the competition disappearing.

Also there's a pretty fine line between the two - I bet it's pretty easy to be a prop trader if you happen to be sat on the GS trading floor, chinese walls or not...

How long ago was this? I would assume that Goldman's most profitable means of prop trading is their high frequency/flash trading business. Of course this could be considered both client or prop trading, depending on how it's defined and what money is used etc. It's a very fine line, as you said.

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Don Wrigley
Jun 8, 2006

King O Frod

destructo posted:

I thought the practice of flash trading stopped some time in 2009?

Looks like you are correct...according to Wikipedia, the exchanges voluntarily stopped offering the service in September 2009.

I still think HFT, even as market making, can be profitable (without flash trading), though less and less so as more players get into it, thereby reducing the bid/ask spread (which, as we can see, is extremely low already).

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