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*Waits for the permabulls to post why they dont understand the market is going down with earnings beats*
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Jan 28, 2010 04:28
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| # ¿ May 3, 2024 03:30 |
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Its amazing how the $1.40 per a euro was like the line in the sand for the carry trade. Now everyone is running to the door it seems. I'll wait for Dow around 9300 before I take a look at anything.
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Jan 28, 2010 18:22
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Cheesemaster200 posted:I am familiar with the concept of carry trading, but am confused by what you meant with $1.40 being the line in the sand. Can you go into a little bit more detail with that? $1.40 us = $1 Euro It is roughly when early last summer when the carry trade started. It is supported by the Euro being at that or above in value to be worthwhile.
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Jan 28, 2010 20:29
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Because that is the time frame when a lot of people took out the loans. If you have forex negatively effecting the trade whats the point of holding?
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Jan 28, 2010 20:50
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Yes, you get cheap dollars and go to a strong currency or growing market (SP500 and buy puts as it goes up since vix is low or buy asian markets with similar theory).
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Jan 28, 2010 21:26
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Silver is almost slapped back to being 14, like i like her...
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Feb 5, 2010 01:07
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Whats your opinion on gold? I dont like gold because its in the news in ads constantly. I'd rather play silver because of that and industrial uses too if the economy recovers. I really honestly just use it to go between cash or hard metal for my non vested money depending on the value of the dollar. I've been all cash for 2 months pretty much now. Just looking at silver again soon to sit in.
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Feb 5, 2010 03:48
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Andy I completely understand. No catching knives, just wait for the trend in the dollar to turn and silver to move up a little for a week or two type deal.
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Feb 6, 2010 00:24
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Any opinion on Marc Fabers comments that the bail out of greece will create a snowball effect in Europe and their currency/debt that will soon spill over to the US? The effects of this could literally occur next week on the Euro...
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Feb 11, 2010 05:43
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GET MONEY posted:Dr. Doom He talked about how Greece is much smaller than someone like California who is a larger economy and unable to service their debt. Once people use the same fundamentals to run away from Greece and look at running to the dollar as just as flawed it will create the same currency push down. He's basically saying any country with higher than serviceable debt to gdp ratios will all default.
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Feb 11, 2010 13:37
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If Germany backstops Greece which is seeming pretty likely I see the Euro bouncing next week on another short squeeze but then sliding to 1.36 as specs focus on the moral hazard aspect and the impact this has on the recovery for the more stable EU countries. All of this seems dollar positive to me though, but I guess if the dollar gets too strong there's a danger the carry trades might unwind further? I don't see how the contagion would spread to the US though.
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xiNickix posted:hey, I'm new at trading so this is probably a stupid question but... is it a terrible idea to buy put contracts on some high paying dividend stocks I have? I'm thinking the dividends would eventually cover the premium and then some anyways and the put would cover the stock tanking. Thats actually a really good idea, especially before the next fed meeting if they go to hike rates. The vix is relatively low so the puts are cheap.
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Mar 17, 2010 00:21
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Honestly the vix is too low. Buying puts is really really smart imo. I'll probably buy some puts tomorrow.
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Mar 17, 2010 07:32
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Ned posted:If you are going to look into ING also take a look at IRE and AIB. The Irish Banks are even more volatile than ING. They also probably wrote a bunch of CDS spreads on Irish and English debt, do your research before just randomly going into something because its more volatile...
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Mar 31, 2010 12:35
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Stagflation market boringly good on paper, painful in the long term.
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Apr 6, 2010 05:04
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Duey posted:So this might be a stupid question, but what effect does options expiration have on the market? Does it usually push prices higher? lower? no effect? High volume swings during the day that usually push it up and down, but then the stocks usually settle at an even handle so that everyones options get hosed over. Its hilariously predictable. Go into a stock chat channel and you'll see people rage. Triple witching days are the best. The last one I hit RIMM literally settled at exactly $40 a share after swinging from open at $42 to $45 down to $36 and hit $40 at close. They beat earnings before opening too.
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Apr 16, 2010 05:27
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Dollar and market rally on Greece and Euroe failing? I literally watched yields go from 7% to 9% at lunch and 11% leaving work today. lol greece
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Apr 23, 2010 03:06
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fougera posted:What do you all think of VZ, Reading over its SEC filings, I think its a big time buy now. What makes it stand out? You still have no confirmation of an iphone and the carriers are fighting at price level on plans now.
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Apr 24, 2010 19:16
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fougera posted:What about as a value play? Value play what? The earnings growth isn't there, winding down fios, debt carrying industry, and not going outside of north america for growth? It is a telecom, which like most infrastructure companies have a high cost of doing business just to stay in business. The only thing I could see help them to become a value play is inflation, since it would make their prior debt service cost go down. Value play would be like Exxon Mobile or someone with a poo poo ton of cash, but again its not really a growing industry atm either.
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Apr 25, 2010 18:49
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ATLbeer posted:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB10YR:IND Aahahah 13% now wtf. Supposedly the exposure to European banks is similar to the size of Lehman brothers blowing up, overnight lending crisis anyone?
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Apr 27, 2010 02:16
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Good lord, this senate hearing is painful. You have people who don't even know what a cdo or cds is asking a loving CEO advanced stuff then using horrible analogies. They compared GS structuring of cdo's as a sports player betting on a game then throwing it. Then he explains how the buyer was the one picking most of them, Abaca. Also giving disclosure to a hedge fund about your position on their account is retarded. If they ask sure, but its not a mom and pop edward jones client who doesn't know poo poo about anything.
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Apr 28, 2010 00:17
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Am I the only one who thinks that the majority of this senate hearing has absolutely nothing to do with the actual SEC fraud case and its just a witch hunt/showboating opportunity? Pretty much everyone asking the questions is up for reelection this year if you didn't take note. Its basically the finger pointing that fits popular with the people who think they are bailing out the banks. In reality, Goldman didn't swindle ma and pa into a balloon loan. I literally watched for twenty minutes as they kept trying to force "small position" for a $50 million net short position against a long position was argued. Anytime he tried to explain it depends on whether the good long or the bad short made more money to the actual valuation they would cut him out and just say "answer was it short." Also, using a bunch of analogies for this poo poo really is annoying. "It's like you're a sports star and betting against your team and throwing the game." No its loving not you dumb loving oval office.
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Apr 28, 2010 06:02
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strwrsxprt posted:More likely they'll use Palm's engineering and software experience to make HP tablets that don't suck (Slate). They sell a lot of pda type things to companies such as target when implementing inventory systems...
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Apr 28, 2010 23:25
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This weekend feels about like the weekend bear sterns failed to me for Europe... Liquidated most of my fun money holdings today.
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Apr 30, 2010 00:32
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Cheesemaster200 posted:What do you think are the possible outcomes over in Europe to that mess? Its a currency crisis. EU breaks up or milks the IMF for as many loans as it can. You just have debt melting up to a bigger player till they can't afford it and it goes up a level. Common person -> Bank -> Government -> Currency Zone -> ??? My theory is thinking we'll get to where the EU can't rape germany for more money and the citizens get pissed off enough and the EU just breaks up. The same thing will happen crisis wise in the US but because of a centralized currency maker with the Fed, and the fed basically floating loans to the ECB at this moment, we get the fun part of printing our debt onto others and making them pay us for it, so it will give us more time and control of the rules. It is a mess and a place I can't even predict the outcome to be.
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Apr 30, 2010 23:47
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Jacques LeVert, the greece bail out is a bail out of the French and German banks, we all know that now. So it is obvious why it is going to occur.. UK will lose their AAA rating in the next couple of weeks and will slowly show their debt issues spill out in the public. When that occurs its too big for the EU or the IMF to "bailout." What is the plan there? Don't forget the IMF is basically a branch of the Fed to print more money. I understand the US is a solid unit money policy wise, but there is a point where you can only roll so much debt into the market. The treasury purchases aren't quite getting all sold anymore, you'll see when they panic by a failed treasury by calling another auction immediately since the dealers have to buy a certain amount to be a dealer. If you start reading who is buying the treasurys you'll see there are some comically made up locations of buyers now.
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May 1, 2010 16:22
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Also, last monday was one of the first down mondays in a while. Closing on the lows friday and all the junk in the news, we should finally break the melt up on low volume trend. I'll wait in cash for things to pick the direction though. Heh, Greece just hired a sovereign debt restructuring expert. Christobevii3 fucked around with this message at 22:00 on May 1, 2010 |
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May 1, 2010 20:40
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fougera posted:What's the thread's take on Samsung potentially glutting the chip market and its effect on INTC? Are you talking nand chips i'm assuming? INTC is ahead in the 28mm race it seems and sandisk. It seems all the chips are on backorder for ram makers too, so I don't see a huge issue.
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May 2, 2010 04:56
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After i liquidated my long positions thursday, i bought a small faz on friday because the libor bumping up some. Now got a full on 500 share faz with trailing stop running since this morning. Just playing with the profits of last months longs at this point...
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May 4, 2010 18:17
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Cramer is calling to buy the dips in the market on housing stocks today wtf???
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May 5, 2010 04:17
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I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:Something similar would be inefficient. FAZ is retarded. 
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May 6, 2010 23:23
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Ravarek posted:It is obvious that whatever the gently caress happened today was exacerbated by high frequency/algo trading. The question is: What caused this crap? Nobody has fessed up to erroneous trades (at least not yet). There's a post over at Zero Hedge (yeah, I know, lol) that suggests a move in the Dollar/Yen triggered an algo sell-off. It is an interesting theory. Yeah, for loving one citibanker guy to do this it would require him to be allowed access to capital in the $100 million with insane leverage or trillions. It's all bs. Also, resetting trades and being all "lol computers" is going to instill confidence...
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May 7, 2010 05:14
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Poor poor "value" buyers at the open... This video always kills me too http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsfQsUYZ5Y8
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May 7, 2010 15:07
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Apple is getting sued in US court by Nokia...
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May 7, 2010 15:42
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Trade the volatility, you can't invest longer term till it goes away. Especially with the currency crisis going on in the Euro zone.
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May 7, 2010 16:51
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ChubbyEmoBabe posted:...Well the ones with >60% losses. If you lost 59%, sorry fucker better luck next "glitch". I'm curious what happens in more complex trades where it wasn't just a one off buy or sell, but say short covering then clearing or beyond.
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May 7, 2010 17:32
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Silver is moving like a drat penny stock 4.5% move whatttt
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May 7, 2010 18:03
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greasyhands posted:if you are talking about buying actual metal, you will never ever beat the dealer price spread and you'll never get more than *maybe* 80% of value trying to sell... it's a fool's game unless you are talking about a *large* buy. just play SLV or GLD Please read about SLV and GLD before you buy it. If you are believing it to hold its wealth in a crisis be aware that they aren't insured deposits on gold or silver. They don't hold a $1 dollar to $1 of gold either, they are more of a fractional promise of yeah we have some gold and buy some as people invest but couldn't carry out people demanding delivery. A lot of gold can be bought for roughly $50 over spot if you buy in bars.
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May 8, 2010 16:52
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Cheesemaster200 posted:What are you going to do with gold bars? With currencies moving 5% in a day, it isn't horrible to have a small amount of gold as a wealth retainer. Stagflation a year or two out is quite probable after the whole deflation swirling the drain thing stops.
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May 9, 2010 00:07
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And the can gets kicked from Greece to Europe into 2011... This is like some game plan of Marc Fabers ramblings on gold and central banks printing money. Credit swap line instantly opened with all the main currency central banks are opened at once in the exact moment the ECB floats $1 trillion usd facility that will then swap with them? Christobevii3 fucked around with this message at 04:24 on May 10, 2010 |
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May 10, 2010 04:13
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| # ¿ May 3, 2024 03:30 |
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Also, I drove down I35 to Austin this weekend. This is a huge shipping route and the amount of semi's and trains on the route this weekend was about the same as when bear stearns blew up, almost non-existent.
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May 10, 2010 05:03
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