Konstantin posted:

Supposedly intelligent people can make decisions that look grossly incompetent in hindsight. For a good example of this in the context of war, read The Guns of August, which is a classic about the start of WWI. Every power at the start of WWI thought the conflict would be over in a few months, and that they would be the victor. Japan thought that Pearl Harbor would scare the US into giving them a free hand in the Pacific. The US thought that they would be greeted as liberators by the Iraqis when they deposed Saddam Hussein. Hubris and nationalism play a part in these decisions, and there is an incentive to put on rose colored glasses. No matter what kind of government you have, there are different factions that need to be convinced to go to war, and it is a lot easier to sell a brief, decisive war than it is to sell a protracted conflict. People with negative views are marginalized, when you're trying to rally the troops you don't need some guy going on about how the leader's grand plan is wrong.