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pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

OperaMouse posted:

What are the differences in skills required to be a good punt returner versus a kick returner?
In the NFL, the kick returner has to be good at letting the ball fly over his head for a touchback ;) (Seriously though, what everyone else said... plus the punt return is tougher because the fair catch can be a tough decision, you are often in traffic, and any mistake is a likely turnover, so coaches are sometimes more conservative there [slower guy with better head and/or hands])

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pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

Detective Thompson posted:

So the Pats have what, 14 rookies on the team? That's a pretty fair percentage. Are there any teams with more right now? That seems like a hell of a lot of new guys.
They have the most, at least as of a month ago.

quote:

St. Louis and Atlanta are second behind the Patriots with 12 rookies on their Monday rosters

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/09/02/patriots-younger-with-most-rookies-any-nfl-team/OyOJLUqCVKP5hVTddXMzBM/story.html

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

Declan MacManus posted:

Make your own graphs, ingrates
(Yeah that was my response, too.)

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Expect interceptions. It unfortunately hasn't gotten cold yet so you won't see Coughlin raising breast cancer awareness with the color of his face until Eli throws a few of them.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

euphronius posted:

You are probably better off just going for it in regular offensive formation anyway in situations where a fake punt would be a good idea.
Yeah, speculating here but I think when they do a fake punt they noticed watching film that the other special team's scheme/players were vulnerable to something (totally ignoring the upback/personal protector, for example).

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

SkunkDuster posted:

In a play with a bunch of laterals, how do they figure the stats? Does each person who handled the ball get some rushing yards credited to them? What if it was initially a pass - does the end result of a bunch of laterals count as passing/receiving yards?
Assuming we're gaining yards:

Running play: The player who gets past the line of scrimmage gets a "rush" and the "rush yards" get allocated based on how much each person personally gained past the spot the lateral they caught came from (or, for the person who crossed the line of scrimmage, how far they got past the line of scrimmage).

Passing play: anybody advancing the ball gets "receiving yards" (which the QB also gets as "pass yards").

There are a lot of wrinkles for yardage loss, stuff behind the line of scrimmage, and kickoffs etc. and I can't describe all the permutations much more briefly than the manual does (and okay I didn't know the wrinkles myself until I looked just now): http://www.nflgsis.com/gsis/documentation/stadiumguides/guide_for_statisticians.pdf

pangstrom fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Nov 18, 2013

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Is there a place to download decent scouting reports going back more than a few years, or does anyone have access to a good repository and is willing to "co-author" an analysis? Plan is to do a text analysis and correlate it to NFL outcomes, and I think it will mostly be "gee whiz" stuff more than a useful tool.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

KettleWL posted:

I know I commented in the draft thread but just in case you (or anyone else) missed it, the analysis you did was really awesome, and I enjoyed reading it. I'm hopeful you get this next project going soon because it'd make for some very interesting off season football talk as well. Anyone that can help you, should, for the betterment of my entertainment options this summer. Thanks.
Thanks! I will let you know when I can chain a few hours together and get part 2 done.

I clumsily tweeted part 1, put it on facebook and reddit, got a (brief) mention in a 538 post, and all that amounted to like 100 views. SA added another 100 views all on its own. Racking up views isn't really the goal (thankfully because 100+100=200=not much!) but still thanks goons.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Yeah I was going to respond and then realized it's more of a Febreeze "10 types of NY fans" categories situation than something you can parameterize, and someone else could do a better job of the categories than I could. But yeah I think as a first pass beyond the geography thing you have more Yankees/Giants/Knicks fans than M/J/Nets fans, and the latter (proportionally at least) have more hardcore fans in baseball and football.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

Shadow225 posted:

Also, where's the analysis that you did pangstrom? I'd be interested in reading it.
http://www.bradybutterfield.com/nfl/?p=1

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

Trin Tragula posted:

Let's laugh at a high school kid, everyone. Everyone laugh at the high school kid. 21 seconds.

http://foxct.com/2014/10/31/high-school-football-highlights-berlin-continues-undefeated-streak/
Haha poor guy.

We had an athletic guy who didn't know how to play soccer sub in as goalie for our college intramural team once. He made a great save on a PK late in the second half and then he spiked the ball in triumph. (Time froze and then like half of each team was under the ball as it came down... it would be a better story if the other team scored but after a mad scramble and some pinball the ball was cleared.)

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Yeah I'd rather they split out the INTs that bounced off the WRs hands first or were Hail Marys at the end of the half or something. There is sort of a line in the sand between statistics where you're just describing play results versus where you having to use your judgment (like drops etc.) though, so sometimes you just let stuff like that come out in the wash.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

il serpente cosmico posted:

It seems sensible to subtract yards lost on a designed passing play from your passing yards. Though looking it up, apparently the NFL already subtracts them from the team total, but not the QB's.

The NCAA's accounting doesn't make any sense to me--adding a rushing attempt and subtracting the yards lost from your rushing total isn't an accurate reflection of what happened. If your QB loses yards on a designed run it's one thing, but why call a failed passing play a failed rushing play?
It's the same line in the sand. No pass happened therefore it's a rush etc. You don't have to guess whether it was a qb draw or something.

From a 'how good is X team at passing' or 'if I call a pass play what should expect to happen' perspective or pretty much any sensible question yeah those sacks should be scored as failed pass plays but then your data collection is some part art (and a pain).

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

SkunkDuster posted:

Phil Simms. Even 30 years later he is still in my life every time I play Madden; telling me the most painfully obvious things. "I can tell you one thing - third and short is easier than third and long."
Real Phil Simms can be pretty bad. I am sympathetic to the who-gives-a-poo poo argument when it comes to players but if we have to listen to the guy TALK I'd rather it be someone who got better than a loving 10 on the Wonderlic. He's not like a weird grudge guy who gets dug in on stuff or gets a flashing TILT above his head as much as my REAL least favorite (now ex-) announcers did at least.

Always bizarre that multimillion dollar game Madden has such terrible announcing that goes off the rails multiple times a game in new ways and also a lot of the same ways it has for decades. And not just dumb stuff, plain bizarre wrong stuff. Also, could I throw a swing pass or an out route without the guy continuing for five yards straight out of bounds right after the catch? It's been like that since the 90s, WTF.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Collision Low Crossers is a really good book about the the 2011 Jets and if you're interested in that kind of thing it's the best I've read.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Small thing: you accidentally reversed 3-4 and 4-3.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
The major distinction is whether the ball travels forward. You can "pass" it backwards an unlimited number of times, like in rugby, but only throw it forward once. The forward throw has to be made from behind the line of scrimmage and there are a bunch of other rules about it.

edit: beaten

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
You'd see more but backwards passes are equivalent to fumbles if they hit the turf, whereas the forward ones are dead when they touch down. Turnovers are killers in American football.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Yeah I don't really know then-versus-now stuff about NFL. Part of it is the rules and the cameras. I mean, you watch an old game and yeah it's definitely different in some surface ways but you also could get away with street fighting poo poo on the line and under piles and players would just decimate WRs in vulnerable positions, sometimes just because they could.

turbomoose posted:

Sometimes it depends on the way the game plays out...
Yeah, that's really where you see the differences. Games take on a life of their own.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
The Bo Jackson 30 for 30 was good but really you couldn't gently caress that up if you tried. He's not that interesting a guy/story beyond his highlights but goddamn those highlights, and it's a good "oh yeah the late 80s" slice in time. He was a total freak of nature. Watching the Broncos / AFC West growing up there was definitely an "oh poo poo Bo's back from baseball" moment for those few seasons. People say "once in a generation" but really I think that understates it. Just on like an all-purpose talent level who else is there, really?

Honestly if you can get past the JUST HOW GOOD WAS HE lens the Dupree 30-for-30 was more interesting, though.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

El Seano posted:

So in continuing to try and learn about the game would you guys agree that the Fullback is the least regarded position on the team outside of kickers?
Yes. It's increasingly a passing league, a lot of the runs aren't from two back sets, and TEs are really "in". Well, at least pass-catching TEs are in, blocking TEs are sort of going the way of the FB.

Last season a few FBs were in for like 40% of offensive plays (B.Miller K.Juszczyk M.Reece) and then it drops off pretty fast -- for most teams it's in the 10-25% range. It's not to say this is the CORRECT strategy/valuation but the trend is what it is.

edit: also I don't know how much of this is commentator-speak more than what coaches are actually thinking but if you're as obsessed with creating the MISMATCH as they seem to be then putting a FB on the field is generally a step in the wrong direction.

pangstrom fucked around with this message at 12:11 on May 8, 2015

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

El Seano posted:

So in my continued "Watch a lot of Hard Knocks" based NFL education I'm always seeing co-ordinators on the sideline covering their mouths to prevent lip reading. Do teams seriously have someone out there every game trying to lip read the co-ordinator or is it just basically near superstition at this point? It just seems odd that they always do it, surely nobody has lip read a call in the NFL in the last 20 years?
Supposedly there was a time when people were getting an edge not even lip-reading, but just noticing how long the call took (in most systems pass plays have longer descriptions).

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

El Seano posted:

So, contract hold-outs, just how common are they? Finishing off the Jets Hard Knocks with the Revis hold out it just seems so odd to me that a dude can say "nah gently caress your contract" until they pay him more then waltz back into the huddle with no hard feelings at all. Doesn't it ever cause problems within the squad when this stuff happens?

It's odd how it works in the NFL with this I feel because in the NBA they'd just force a trade since I'm pretty sure you can't renegotiate a contract and usually the player drags their own name through the mud doing it. The same applies for football (or soccer as you'd call it) here. When a player forces a team to pay him more it usually comes with a poo poo storm of bad PR for the player involved and that's the rare occasion that he's a big enough name to not just get sold.

Don't fans ever turn on a player for doing this stuff?
They do to some extent, but really the team has so much leverage and the player has so little I don't blame the player, usually. NFL teams can say "nah gently caress your contract" AFTER THEY SIGNED IT, that is to say it's a "contract" only in the strict sense of the word. Other than the guaranteed money it's a "this is what we will pay you, unless we decide to cut you". Factor in the shortness of careers, the fact that their brains could become mush, they may have outperformed their rookie cookie-cutter contract with a team that drafted them, and that teams WILL lowball players, especially if they're in salary cap trouble.

If a team gives too generous a contract to an NBA or soccer or MLB player they're generally stuck with it. In the NFL holding-out is only an option for the big-time players, because teams hit hold-outs with fines for not reporting to minicamp and training camp and preseason games etc. etc., and because teams aren't afraid of losing the locker room or the fans if some special teamer tried it they would just say gently caress off and cut them.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

swickles posted:

Kicking, punting, and long snapping. Still, even those become replaceable simply because it becomes cheaper to pay a young guy less to do the same job.
Just an aside, this isn't disagreeing with you at all: you also almost-inevitably have a bad stretch (even if it's just a stochastic thing) in those positions and unless you're really established coaches get tempted to switch you out at that point.

pangstrom fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Jun 15, 2015

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

WobblySausage posted:

Anyone have some good recommendations for football books? I'm open to anything really. I'd like to read about football strategy, fictional stories, autobiographies, team biographies, etc.
Collision Low Crossers
Slow Getting Up

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

fuckpot posted:

So one of our best rugby league players, Jarryd Hayne, has decided he wants to play NFL. He was an absolute phenomenon over here and is getting headline after headline with how well he is doing trialling with the 49ers. Just wondering what the buzz is over there about him - if there's any at all. It would be one of the great stories if he made it over there and I hope that he does.
It is hard to look directly at the 49ers at the moment without going blind but between my fingers he looks really good. NFL coaches are pretty conservative (i.e. there's a tendency to go with a safer established guy) and the NFL is an injury factory, especially if you run like he does so who knows.

I don't know if it's a factor as much as it is in more international sports (soccer) but from the organization's standpoint it's nice to have a fan magnet where you draft a chunk of a country to watch games, buy merch etc.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
There isn't a ton of clarity in that area but basically yes, unless maybe he's caught the ball and has started to ball up on his way down or something like that.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Kids leagues are often segmented by weight

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
the [indistinct] part is somethin glike "we're supposed to just lay down and let them have this"
but yeah the rest is unclear to me.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Yeah the small # of games matters, I think, at least for in-season trades. The NFL might have more trades if they moved the trade deadline back (some trades in other leagues are basically short term gain for teams making a run and long term gain for the team that is rebuilding) but yeah one reason is that most NFL positions have a fair amount to learn that is going to be somewhat team-specific. The other is with that contracts are structured under the salary cap is you often end up eating dead money if you trade somebody away, and that tends to be more true for the players you'd most like to trade away.

Re: Gordon, I wish the league would stop sweating weed, but you pretty much have to be an addict (or a total gently caress-up) to get deep into the NFL substance abuse policy.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Seeing how NFL teams get draft picks wrong all the time I am surprised college teams do as well as they do. It's a hard problem even if you have a lot of resources.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
I'm a pretty big NFL fan and I still have to be reminded that the Tennessee Titans exist at least a couple times a year.

I would pick the Falcons over the Jets or Bills, just from an entertainment standpoint. I am semi-fans of both teams, and this year was atypically good, but in general there is something in those teams' DNA that mandates that their offense be almost un-watchable-y boring.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

El Seano posted:

1. So the Giants having ODB is literally as good as most teams receiver corps? I just feel like surely if we don't draft another reputable receiver they can just double ODB on every play and he'll sink like gently caress in his third year? I get that he's supposed to be great but I literally have no frame of reference and plus surely if any team puts two on him and the other receiver can't catch a ball then surely the offence will just crash. It may say something here that I really thought the Giants cure for no.2 receiver was Sanu and was actually pretty bummed when he signed elsewhere.

2. Let's talk reputable sources. As it stands I read a lot of Big Blue View which is their SBNation blog and the rest I glean from SBNation's newsletter and NFL Yahoo! I used to rely on WalterFootball but the more I read of it the more I think they're just writing whatever gets hits, however in depth it may be.

3. Following the NBA for ten years has taught me never trust ESPN unless you really like LeBron.

4. Unrelated but I wanted to ask, do they have home and away stands for fans like they do here for "soccer" in football? I always see shots of the stands with some dude in a Giants jersey celebrating in a crowd of opposing fans. If you tried that here you'd get punched at least and I mean at very least. If I can only get a ticket in the away stand I'm not wearing team colors and I'm being quiet as gently caress.

1) Doubling players is a huge annoyance to defensive schemes, and even mediocre NFL WR can still hurt you. But yeah it's a team sport so if nobody else is dangerous it will hurt him... there is the other side of the coin where you force him the ball constantly because what else are you going to do, so even in a bad year ODB could have a decent year statistically, playing from behind all the time etc.
2&3 no informative opinion
4) They don't. Generally 95% of football fans don't attack each other that often or take it THAT seriously, and soccer is scarier in that regard. There is often a "super homer" section were it might be a little riskier especially in some stadiums but those are season ticket holders / you're not ending up there.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

El Seano posted:

5. BPA vs Need. As I see it as a novice, Need outweighs BPA everytime unless you're picking top 5. I mean people keep saying that Ramsey is supposed to be the second coming of whoever but if you're loaded at that position why take him? I mean if the Giants were picking 2nd I'd say you take Myles Jack rather than Ramsey. But then apparently another argument is thats two picks too high for Myles Jack. This poo poo is confusing.
There's no real hard and fast rule on this one. You basically try to fill needs, get the best players, consider the alternatives/lack of alternatives, wait on people you think you can get away with waiting on because no other team thinks they're as great as you do, etc. You really should never trade up unless it's for a potential franchise QB, though... a lot of teams do anyway.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

pangstrom posted:

You really should never trade up unless it's for a potential franchise QB, though... a lot of teams do anyway.
Just to sort of qualify/elaborate on the above
1) NFL decision-makers are sometimes in a win-now (or show promise for the future) or it's all pointless anyway. If you're an owner who keeps himself out of the football decisions completely but ALSO have the coach on the short leash, well you can get into the football team version of an Enron situation.
2) Maybe the teams think this is going to be their shot at a franchise QB. I remember sort of general chuckling when Bortles was picked but maybe the Jags were actually on to something.
3) In some future where trading up didn't cost a team so goddamn much than I wouldn't be against trading up. For some reason it's almost always a total fleecing and goddamn these are brutal.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Blackmon was a total badass but couldn't stop doing drugs/drinking and driving etc.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

3 DONG HORSE posted:

Asking here cause it's knowledge!!

So I was reading a Broncos blog and this guy brought up the idea that the Broncos drafted a punter to help alleviate cap space. Is this a strategy that a lot of teams follow? And I'm asking in regards to minor roles; not the bigtime, like dumping an old QB on a bad contract kinda poo poo.
Yes, rookies are cheap and Britton Colquitt is on the last year of his contract and set to be paid $4M, $3.25M of which could be cap space for other players if they dumped him.
http://overthecap.com/player/britton-colquitt/2180/

It's not big big money but for a medicore punter it's worth trying to swap him out. And it could be an upgrade.

pangstrom fucked around with this message at 11:49 on May 2, 2016

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
It depends on the coach but typically: you'll see them but not much. Often they'll skip the last preseason game completely so coaches have more tape to make final cuts and for the usual injury reasons (Coughlin used to play them a little, not sure what McAdoo will do). Generally if you see the starters a lot it's because they look like poo poo, and coaches will pull them if they look okay.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

Cruel and Unusual posted:

Does anyone remember, or even better, have video evidence of Dennis Miller's stint on Monday Night Football? I've read some terrible quotes, but I feel they don't do him justice.
I have dim memories. I thought he was fine and sort of unfairly tarnished (especially compared to a lot of other commentators, who are garbage) but if people didn't like him hey, they didn't like him.

Only specific memory I have is that somebody in the Dallas Cowboys stands was very pregnant and dressed skimpily and had painted the blue star on her belly and Miller said something like "cowboys cheerleaders going in a different direction, this year".

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pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Is it generally people too unathletic for rugby, or is it generally people who also play rugby?

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