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I think this is the most appropriate place for this question: I went to Vegas a couple weeks ago and during a visit to the sportsbook at my hotel I noticed that there were futures available for the "NFL Championship" (I'm coming back to this after my primary question). That's not out of the ordinary, of course, but you could actually bet on which division is home to the would-be champs. So you could select on the AFC East, AFC North, etc. all at various odds. The division with the BEST odds? AFC West at 5/2 I think. So my question is this: What's going on in the AFC West that makes it the most likely division to end up having one of its teams be the NFL champs? Bonus question: My dad was wondering why futures for the Super Bowl are listed as "NFL Championship" and the only thing I could think of is that the NFL probably has a copyright to "Super Bowl" and would go after any sportsbook that dare use that phrase without permission. Am I right?
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Jul 26, 2010 23:42
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drunk leprechaun posted:The thing people have to remember about betting is that lines are there so that the books can get an equal amount of money on both sides of the bet. The books don't necessarily think that the AFC West has the best odds at winning, more that that line gives them the correct amount of action to balance out the money on every division. It is the same way with the spread. I know that certain teams(Texas, ND, USC, etc.) always get a lot of money put on them to cover, so those spreads are actually higher then Vegas expects them to be so that the money will work out correctly on both sides of the line. Just making sure I'm understanding what you mean: I dunno what the line opened at but for argument sake let's say the AFCW opened at 9/1 (since it's the Chargers and 3 teams that I feel safe in assuming have a snowball's chance in contending for the Vince Lombardi Trophy). Maybe enough people saw 9/1 (or whatever the original odds were) as lucrative enough to gamble on the Chargers, to the point where the book decided that the best thing to do - in order to avoid paying out a ton of money to those people and possibly more - was to increase the odds to 3/1 or 5/2, effectively putting the brakes on the action? Is that what you mean?
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Jul 27, 2010 01:00
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drunk leprechaun posted:Exactly. Now I am by no means a sports betting expert, but that is how I understand it. Someone who actually understands this stuff better should come in and explain it more, but that is what I have learned from reading about lines and stuff on the internet and placing the odd bet myself. Yeah I just failed to connect that logic, which I knew applied to individual games, to futures bets. Which was dumb of me.
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Jul 27, 2010 02:12
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