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PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

WhyteRyce posted:

That's an old slide and not representative of what Intel was saying publicly for some time.
Yeah but it was the original release date right?

Doesn't really matter how old it was if it was a official roadmap.

WhyteRyce posted:

Intel hasn't publicly said or admitted to 7nm being massively delayed and I think the future roadmap plans were based around 7nm not being pushed out at least a year.
Yeah initially they did the same thing with 10nm back in 2018 when the rumors first started to surface and look how that played out. Obviously you can't go believing every rumor but since the 10nm rumors panned out and the 7nm rumors supposedly came from the same source I don't think you can dismiss them.

PCjr sidecar posted:

The analyst line was that...
The original rumors weren't really all that clear about what the problem was. Just that they were huge and basically shat all over Krzanich and blamed him and the rest of the board for meddling where they shouldn't to please shareholders.

PC LOAD LETTER fucked around with this message at 04:05 on Jul 28, 2020

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PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

WhyteRyce posted:

What does the original road map in this context mean?
Well as I was pointing out: 7nm was as delayed as 10nm. I honestly don't see how you can look at this any other way.

Yeah they changed the road maps but so what?

If AMD released a road map saying Zen3 was going to be out later this year last year and then released another one later saying 'nope we changed it now its 2021' everyone including me would call it a delay too.

WhyteRyce posted:

Who cares about whatever roadmap stuff BK pitched or promised and tossed out in the context of what Swan is responsible for.
Since the development of their 7nm started in something like 2015, and ran for quite a while, under BK I'd say it matters quite a bit.

Intel is still trying to cope with getting 10nm out right? And that started development in 2014 or so.

Lots of things, mistakes included, get 'baked' into products from the get go so even though BK is long gone now the fallout from his decisions will still be felt for a long time to come. Hell even their 5nm process development started under BK I think so even after 7nm they might still be dealing with major manufacturing issues for all we know.

WhyteRyce posted:

I really find it hard to believe that BS would willingly put himself into that position.
Lots of people had a hard time believing Intel hosed up their 10nm process too or that there would be problems with 7nm as well.

WhyteRyce posted:

saying he was just a sacrificial goat
When did I say this?

Quote me where I said exactly this.

To be clear: I'm not saying this at ALL and I don't have a clue how you got that out of what I posted.

FWIW too I don't think BS can do much of anything to speed up or magic away Intel's process troubles. Everything I've read about process development seems to suggest that doing anything at all new is incredibly difficult, risky, expensive, and takes lots of time (years) and so careful planning is typically required 3-5yr in advance to get things done.

Because of that mistakes made early on can result in multi year delays to get fixed. That sure does seem to be the situation Intel is in here with 10nm and I see no reason to be terribly optimistic about their 7nm process that they were once so sure of.

quote:

Intel is "very pleased" with the progress it is making on its 7-nanometer manufacturing technology, which might come as a surprise given that it's still not shipping 10-nanometer 'Cannon Lake' processors in volume, and won't until the end of next year. As it turns out, Intel has a separate team working on 7nm.

Dr. Murthy Renduchintala, chief engineering officer at Intel and head of the company's technology, systems architecture, and client group, made some interesting comments about 10nm and 7nm at Nasdaq's 39th Investor Conference.

"7 nanometers for us is a separate team and a largely separate effort. And we are quite pleased with our progress on 7, in fact very pleased with our progress on 7, and I think that we have taken a lot of lessons out of the 10-nanometer experience as we defined that and defined a different optimization point between transistor density, power and performance, and schedule predictability," Dr. Renduchintala said.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

WhyteRyce posted:

Again because it's in the context of Bob Swan and Murthy's responsibilities.
Their individual responsibilities aren't in question at all by me in my OP nor do I see how that would matter at all given that the road map I linked was also official too.

Yes I know they just released info about new delays recently, I'm pointing out that it was already delayed and has been for a long long time. That the old road map is old doesn't suddenly mean that it no longer counts somehow.

WhyteRyce posted:

False equivalence?
Oooor I'm pointing out people's beliefs in general about what Intel as a company could or would do don't much matter?

WhyteRyce posted:

Bob's behavior and level of transparency have nothing to do with hard technical problems and the limits of physics so I don't know why you are bothering to try and equate the two.
I wasn't and I don't know why you think I was trying to.

Quote me exactly where I said BS was to blame for technical issues with Intel's 10/7nm processes.

WhyteRyce posted:

I never said you said this
But your reply was only to me in a post that was quoting only me and you sure weren't clear at all that you were talking to someone else in thread.

Are you drunk posting or something??

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!
I'd say they're better off than AMD was back than because the *cove cores are looking to be at least decent even they end up held back by the process + Intel doesn't have to rely on a 3rd party foundry to make them.

As near as anyone can tell it looks like AMD will be highly fab limited forever at this point so even if they had a chip that out performed Intel's by 1000% Intel would be able to still stay in business for quite a while since AMD can only supply a fraction of the x86 market.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

punk rebel ecks posted:

What does "fab limited" mean?

gradenko nailed it.

I actually think AMD is more fab limited now than they were back in the K6 days. Back then they could supply something like ~25-30% of the x86 market.

What they can do with Zen2 and up cores is either take big ol' chunks out of the x86 server market from Intel or force them to drop prices a bunch which would hurt quite a bit for Intel's financials but the company wouldn't be at risk of going under.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!
I don't know enough about Samsung's fab capacity to say for sure but I think AMD and pretty much everyone else looking to make parts on a post 14/12nm process else would almost have to be assesing them as a supplier if for no other reason than as a back up in case TSMC runs into issues.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

Mr.PayDay posted:

In reality the Enterprise and Server market prints money and Intel owns 90 % of the Cloud, Data Center and 24/7 High end critical business SLA infrastructures and dominates the virtualization backends.
The server market is slow to change and even with a superior product its widely acknowledged that AMD would take years to get decent market share.

The general rule of thumb is to go by the Opteron days and point out it took them ~2yr to get ~20% of the x86 server market and so its assumed it'll take about that long to do the same today. Epyc has been out for a while now but also didn't start ramping production well apparently until 2018-ish and since then AMD has been getting more market share slowly but steadily over time.

Due to their fab limitation I don't think they'll ever be able to kick Intel out of the x86 server market (or any market other than consoles apparently) and perhaps its also slowing them down some now too but its faaar from unreasonable to assume at this point that they can take a big chunk of the x86 server market away from Intel for at least a year or 2 going forward.

Mr.PayDay posted:

Beside that, every tech and gaming magazine labels Intel as the fastest gaming CPUs
Usually not enough to be worth the price/heat particularly if you game at 1440p which lots do and have for a long time which is why AMD has been doing well even in gaming. For desktop productivity stuff they'll also still meet or beat Intel's desktop/HEDT things for less or the same price too.

If you want to ignore value and focus on 1 or 2 things Intel can still eke out some thin wins here and there but otherwise they're rather disappointing to buy right now in general for desktop/HEDT and even laptops are starting to look better for AMD (though that is a very recent change and not many models are out there still).

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!
Yeah Opteron was a long term branding that spanned multiple architectures.

I suspect they retired it because of the stink that stuck to the brand after the Bulldozer versions tanked their x86 market share to nothing.

The K7 and K8 based Opterons did quite well though and did offer significant performance and value advantages over the Intel competing chips of the time.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

mobby_6kl posted:

In the short term, at least... but AMD somehow survived making useless garbage for a decade so I'm sure Intel has some space to unfuck themselves.

AMD made it work by giving up their fabs which while it saved the company also meant they'd be eventually forced into a situation like they currently are with TSMC's 7nm supply no matter what.

Having your own fab is great if you can keep your ASP's up while selling volume. You're pretty much printing money in that scenario!

But if you're forced to make big cuts in your ASP's, even while selling volume, you'll start burning through cash fast since fabs and the constant R&D needed to stay competitive requires heaps of cash to keep running.

Personally, unless their 7nm process turns out to be as big of a shitshow* as their 10nm did, I don't think Intel is going anywhere but I also think they're not going to be the same going forward either.

*there are rumors of serious issues with it but so far nothing at all like with 10nm

edit: nothing is stopping them from doing that. They might not WANT to do it for various business reasons but wouldn't stop them. That is part of the reason why I'm not too worried about Intel disappearing. \/\/\/\/\/\/

PC LOAD LETTER fucked around with this message at 19:59 on Nov 22, 2020

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!
I don't think that idea washes since the new chip is supposed to have a 228W+ power mode which is what is enabled to get those (quite good BTW) bench numbers at something like 5Ghz+ clocks.

They're quite clearly willing to blow out the power budget to get the performance they need so cutting AVX512 to save on power doesn't make sense.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

VorpalFish posted:

I wouldn't be surprised to see alder lake p cores beat zen3 cores in performance, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're more efficient as well.

All the leakers are saying they're burning around ~250-300w to get the chip to ~5.2Ghz+, which is where those real nice performance numbers are coming from.

It wouldn't surprise me if at lower clocks (3Ghz or less) that they'd be more efficient than Zen3, and should make them great for laptops, but at high clocks they seem to be every bit as bad if not worse than RKL.

My WAG is its a process issue and not a design issue due to how bad the power scaling is at those clocks.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!
Those are some solid value overclockers.

Right up there with some of the Durons and Core 2 Duos, with FSB OC'ing too!

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

redeyes posted:

drat glitches keep happening.

Supposedly that glitch can effect Intel systems too. Its some sort've issue with the Geforce driver and that MS update and not AMD's software or the CPU.

He mentions in the vid that if you don't install that Microsoft update the issue mostly goes away.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!
Hooly gently caress they made the power worse than Zen4?!

I guess being on top the benchmark charts, even if the wins are often by degrees too small to matter, really brings the sales in.

edit: wow even with top end AIO's its thermal throttling quite a bit. Usually down to mid 4Ghz range or less even in games.

PC LOAD LETTER fucked around with this message at 14:56 on Oct 20, 2022

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

Beef posted:

The whole idea is that Intel offers cheaper SKUs that have a bunch of special-purpose accelerators disabled.
Are they actually dropping their prices though? Especially enough to matter?

The accelerators, going by the the commentary from the STH guys about Sapphire Rapids, are the main reason to buy that chip. If you don't use them they hardly make any sense to buy in the first place since otherwise it'll just get utterly spanked by Genoa for most applications.

Seems kinda dumb from a institutional standpoint to me too since the accelerators would really benefit from wide adoption to help justify software support. But then Intel has pretty much flubbed widely introducing the AVX512 stuff too so this would be just more of the same I guess.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

Beef posted:

The economics for datacenter CPUs are totally different than client.
Sure but I don't see how that works in favor of Intel's approach here (they'd have to significantly drive down costs of their Xeon money maker while still having the accelerators on die anyways while Genoa eats their lunch) and I don't see how it'll drive adoption of these accelerators either which will greatly diminish their practical value in the market place.

Intel is huge and can throw lots of resources at a given product to try and jump start adoption, but as they've shown with AVX512, if you limit the products that support it too much that doesn't much matter.

Their accelerators are powerful and could be compelling if they get widespread support, yes even if some of the use cases are niche now, but if they don't get support they'll be a waste of money and die space.

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PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

Saukkis posted:

If the premise is that there are some features that only few customers want
Yeah I don't really buy that.

If it was truly only something that a relative handful of customers wanted Intel wouldn't bother in the first place. They have to have volume to keep their fabs profitable.

By making the features widely available they'd open the door to widespread adoption which could only help them sell more in the long run if support takes off. By paywalling it that possibility is pretty much 0 and they have to hope that those "few" customers will sign up to get shafted on pricing while competing against Genoa.

You'd might as well have argue that Intel should've paywalled AVX512, heck AVX256 while you're at it, years ago too lol

My WAG is the shareholders pushed for the Intel VIP's to try something, anything, to get more money in and this was what squeezed out.

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