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Ulio
Feb 17, 2011


Long time MMA watcher but I haven't followed the streamer boxing fights. I was wondering how come the betting odds have Nate Diaz as an underdog vs Jake Paul? Anyone actually watched him and is he legit? It looks like he only fought Anderson Silva who was a striker but he is a muay thai guy and was 47, while Nate diaz has some boxing background and is much younger.

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Ulio
Feb 17, 2011


kimbo305 posted:

Being familiar with the ruleset is key for Jake Paul, who has bad gas but can pace himself well enough to stay out of trouble. He’s had enough fights at this point to know how to score without exerting too much. Diaz’s grinding style doesn’t work as well in boxing because of the breakups of extended clinching.

Interesting thanks. So is a huge favorite or is it more like 60-40 for Jake?

Ulio
Feb 17, 2011


Eat This Glob posted:

iirc, prizefighting odds aren't necessarily a predictor on who is gonna win, it's a reflection on who is being bet on. the more people/money that bet on paul (or any favorite), the more enticing the odds will be for bettors on diaz (or any dog) because books genuinely want money bet on both fighters. the bigger the favorite, the less return on your bet. books basically want there to be as little risk to them as possible.

conor mcgregor's two most recent wins are against a now-retired cowboy cerrone and an NBA mascot. still, he's a betting favorite against michael chandler. do books think conor is gonna beat chandler? who knows, but they do know a bunch of mcgregor fans will put money on their boy, so in order to get to an even money proposition for them, chandler's gotta be the underdog. that said, favorite/dog betting favors the favorite 2 times out of 3 in UFC betting. poo poo just gets hinky when you've got a bunch of people flooding fan favorites like paul and mcgregor with bets

I mean that is what it is in most cases the market has the right favorite but it definitely seems like in these showmatch type situations it's harder to get a read and there is way more stupid money involved.

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