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JOHN CENA posted:$440 on jake. pre-emptive congrats
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Oct 30, 2022 05:41
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| # ? May 9, 2024 01:45 |
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This is why I don't gamble.
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Oct 30, 2022 05:45
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Fozzy The Bear posted:This is why I don't gamble. you made the correct decision based on who the better fighter was, but you failed to take into account a) boxing b) a jake paul fight
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Oct 30, 2022 05:49
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JOHN CENA posted:i dont wanna win here guys, sorry about your luck
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Oct 30, 2022 05:56
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Oct 30, 2022 08:34
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There needs to be a Paul fight flowchart. Want them to be killed in ring > think their hand selected opponents might have a chance > forget this is all fake
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Oct 30, 2022 12:09
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can i have $300?
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Oct 30, 2022 16:49
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Do you still work at a casino? Are employees allowed to make bets at their properties off shift? Different properties under the same umbrella (MGM / whatever the other one is) company? Or do you have to go across the street to the competition to bet?
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Oct 30, 2022 17:10
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Nystral posted:Do you still work at a casino? Are employees allowed to make bets at their properties off shift? Different properties under the same umbrella (MGM / whatever the other one is) company? Or do you have to go across the street to the competition to bet? you cannot bet where you work with my company or at associated locations, no. i made my bet at the mirage and got jake -220.
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Oct 30, 2022 17:41
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FanDuel has -164 on Izzy. That's seriously making me want to put money on there even though I only ever do DraftKings. DK has him at -200. I'd probably bet him down to -400 or -500. Crazy to met that Alex is that close in odds. Weili's at -360 with Esparza at +295. Esparza is tempting at that but I'm having a hard time seeing how she actually wins. Out wrestles and lays-and-prays? For 5 rounds? Weili is so strong. Chandler at +185 I will bet for sure. Poirier is like a hair away from falling off it seems like, and Chandler still seems to have a lot in the tank. Poirier gets hit a lot and I would not be surprised to see Chandler knock him out. I am very surprised Chandler is a dog at all. Edgar at +185 is very tempting. I don't know much about Gutierrez, though, and there are generally few happy endings in this sport. Hooker at -165 is on the money probably. I can't decide if I think that's too high or too low. He has lost a lot recently but mainly to top guys. He might settle in as a gatekeeper. I don't have very strong opinions on Puelles. I like Riddell at +108. He's on a two-fight skid but he fought two really good guys. Moicano has some nice wins but I think Riddell takes it. Should be like -190 Riddell IMO. Reyes is -205 and Spann is +175, which feels okay, but Reyes has looked very unmotivated the last two fights and he hasn't fought in a year in a half. Will bet Spann. Molly is +320. I don't trust anyone at women's FW outside of Valentina so that's a slam pick. We'll see how the odds shift, but I'm probably going to do: Izzy Chandler Riddell Spann Molly and parlay them as well.
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Nov 9, 2022 00:20
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Starting to see wisdom in Boxc picks. I either need to drink less or a lot more.
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Nov 9, 2022 01:39
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:Edgar at +185 is very tempting. psa to everyone, dont do it, you will only become sad and it wont even be about the money.
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Nov 9, 2022 02:10
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:FanDuel has -164 on Izzy. That's seriously making me want to put money on there even though I only ever do DraftKings. DK has him at -200. I'd probably bet him down to -400 or -500. Crazy to met that Alex is that close in odds. im gonna dive in on your parlay but im gonna drop riddell, that fight feels like a trap.
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Nov 9, 2022 02:12
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Shumagorath posted:Starting to see wisdom in Boxc picks. I either need to drink less or a lot more. Let me be your James Krause! JOHN CENA posted:im gonna dive in on your parlay but im gonna drop riddell, that fight feels like a trap. my theory: Riddell is mega jacked and strong as gently caress, Moicano is a grappler who used to fight at FW. I think Riddell wins it if he can stay grinding
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Nov 9, 2022 04:53
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:FanDuel has -164 on Izzy. That's seriously making me want to put money on there even though I only ever do DraftKings. DK has him at -200. I'd probably bet him down to -400 or -500. Crazy to met that Alex is that close in odds. are you serious? i watched their kickboxing fights, and the dude in there with izzy has kickboxed this guy to a decision and exploded his loving head off. if there is even a slight chance izzy decides this is going to be kickboxing with 4oz gloves my pereira is loving live imo
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Nov 10, 2022 11:23
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i liken this parlay to basically all the other things you look at and just get sort of sad in that non-specific way 20 on frankie / chandler / pereira to win 465 as i was typing that i realised what a gigantic waste of money that was and thought 'i can make that stupider' 10 on frankie to win by t/ko and chandler and pereira to win by decision to win 5890 will be betting live too because i'm not even sort of drunk yet.
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Nov 10, 2022 22:10
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Marching Powder posted:are you serious? i watched their kickboxing fights, and the dude in there with izzy has kickboxed this guy to a decision and exploded his loving head off. if there is even a slight chance izzy decides this is going to be kickboxing with 4oz gloves my pereira is loving live imo I don't know that there are any hard/fast rules of MMA, but one that I've come to trust in a ton is "who would win in a single-discipline sport does not translate over to MMA, even if you think it would". Jones took down DC, Gonzaga blew Crocop's head off, Rountree knocked out Gokhan Saki, etc. The threat of wrestling, 4oz gloves, the cage, the training methods, the mindset...I just don't hold a lot of weight on that aside from "Pereira knows how to punch". Even if Izzy just purely kickboxes with him, it's just a different discipline IMO. And one that Izzy has 19 more wins at. Marching Powder posted:i liken this parlay to basically all the other things you look at and just get sort of sad in that non-specific way the other rule I like is as JOHN CENA mentioned: there are almost no happy endings in combat sports
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Nov 10, 2022 22:17
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:I don't know that there are any hard/fast rules of MMA, but one that I've come to trust in a ton is "who would win in a single-discipline sport does not translate over to MMA, even if you think it would". Jones took down DC, Gonzaga blew Crocop's head off, Rountree knocked out Gokhan Saki, etc. The threat of wrestling, 4oz gloves, the cage, the training methods, the mindset...I just don't hold a lot of weight on that aside from "Pereira knows how to punch". i actually agree with you, israel absolutely should win this fight in this ruleset and it would be extremely loving embarrassing if he didn't. i think pereira's live for a few reasons i think you're underselling, specifically the fact that if izzy is at all human he is going to really, really want to kickbox pereira and adding in any other aspects of mma except for clinching would be tantamount to 'whoa, gently caress, ok, you'd win the third fight too' in the eyes of dana white, the just bleed guy, me, and other people who do not matter. the other little wrinkle is pereira is slightly better than 'knows how to punch'. as in when it comes to beating pereira in a straight up kick punch the glory lhw champion had to do it and he only just eeked out a majority decision. and pereira beat him in the fight before that. meanwhile izzy has been kick punching... less specifically threatening opposition.
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Nov 10, 2022 22:31
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i cannot remotely fathom this izzy line, i feel like it should be -1200. i understand pereira beat him in a different sport half a decade ago but he also lost (in MMA!!) to "Quemuel Ottoni" in about the same timeframe (in a fight where pereira demonstrated he was incompetent at like, six different submissions) adesnaya has dominated everyone in his weight class, some of the best multiple times. pereira has beat a few cans (and sean strickland who seemed eager to lose) if you believe that pereira just somehow has adesanya's number, sure, i could see the bet, but you're taking somebody with minimal mma experience against one of the modern era greats at... +170 ???? no thank you. e: to be fair, i think you make a lot of excellent points here. none that should matter, but "izzy decides he wants to prove he's a better pure kickboxer" is definitely alex's best chance to win and there's a realistic chance of it happening Spokes fucked around with this message at 22:44 on Nov 10, 2022 |
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Nov 10, 2022 22:41
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Wasn’t Izzy smashing him up prior to a fortuitous eight count in their last match? Maybe I find Carl’s write-ups overly compelling, but I can’t square the betting line with the lack of MMA experience.
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Nov 10, 2022 22:43
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Marching Powder posted:i liken this parlay to basically all the other things you look at and just get sort of sad in that non-specific way
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Nov 10, 2022 22:47
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Marching Powder posted:i actually agree with you, israel absolutely should win this fight in this ruleset and it would be extremely loving embarrassing if he didn't. he is live, sure, he's big and he hits hard and tall guys who normally fight short guys seem to always have difficulty fighting other tall guys (Jones vs Gus). but the main thing is: Spokes posted:i cannot remotely fathom this izzy line, i feel like it should be -1200. yeah the line is way off. I would start betting Pereira at like...+1000 feels right
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Nov 10, 2022 22:51
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:I would start betting Pereira at like...+1000 feels right i really, really wish vegas thought the same. if izzy was going to lose to anyone at middleweight, it would be by letting his pride play right into his opponent's a-game, and his opponent for some reason is one of the few people on earth whose a-game ""may"" actually be better than izzy's. this is one of those ridiculous fights where i'd give pereira better odds of beating israel adesanya than high school wrestling enthusiast and 13-7 journeyman johnathan realname
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Nov 10, 2022 23:05
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Alright, got: McCann @ +300, $5 to win $20 Riddell @ +105, $10 to win $20.50 Hooker @ -155, $10 to win $16.45 Izzy @ -235, $21.20 to win $30.22 Chandler @ +170, $20 to win $54 5 pick parlay, Riddell/Hooker/Chandler/Weili/Izzy, $10 to win $209.20 (blessed payout)
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Nov 13, 2022 00:25
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i made this bet before I saw Pereira came out in the full Apocalypto get up. not feeling nearly as confident
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Nov 13, 2022 00:32
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when i actually saw the odds they were giving me, i put 50 on a parley for zhang and izzy to t/ko their opponent in the first or second pays 1.5k
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Nov 13, 2022 01:29
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Marching Powder posted:when i actually saw the odds they were giving me, i put 50 on a parley for zhang and izzy to t/ko their opponent in the first or second pays 1.5k
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Nov 13, 2022 01:37
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Shumagorath posted:That's an unreal payout for something that feels so likely. yeah it's one of those mythical lines that are so good you don't care if you lose because it's just a really solid bet. this separates it from most of my other bets.
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Nov 13, 2022 01:40
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Can I ask where you got it? I might throw down too.
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Nov 13, 2022 01:41
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sportsbet. australian online bookies.
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Nov 13, 2022 01:42
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I put the same thing into ProLine+ and it gave me absolute dogshit, but I don't think it's properly multiplying my odds. Not going to scramble with 90min left to showtime and three drinks down already.
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Nov 13, 2022 02:35
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Shumagorath posted:I put the same thing into ProLine+ and it gave me absolute dogshit, but I don't think it's properly multiplying my odds. Not going to scramble with 90min left to showtime and three drinks down already. this is so responsible and level headed it seems against the spirit of the thread but i absolutely respect it
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Nov 13, 2022 02:41
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Shumagorath posted:I put the same thing into ProLine+ and it gave me absolute dogshit, but I don't think it's properly multiplying my odds. Not going to scramble with 90min left to showtime and three drinks down already. Yo your phrasing makes it seem like you're not watching the prelims and if that's the case you are loving up
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Nov 13, 2022 02:43
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Haha well if they'd offered me your line I'd have put down hundreds 
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Nov 13, 2022 02:44
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Nov 13, 2022 03:48
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i'm glad zhang subbed her instead of ko'ing her or i'd be making GBS threads it right now.
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Nov 13, 2022 06:28
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(with an impossibly high degree of confidence) Bet on MMA.
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Nov 13, 2022 06:58
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:(with an impossibly high degree of confidence) Bet on MMA. :-)
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Nov 13, 2022 06:58
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sometimes i am wrong and sometimes i am WRONG grats to everybody who made bank on that, sheesh
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Nov 13, 2022 06:59
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| # ? May 9, 2024 01:45 |
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won about 550ish on pereira minus hundredish on stupid bets
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Nov 13, 2022 07:00
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