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Skip My Posts posted:I haven’t seen much of usman. Is he gonna have poo poo for woodley? It's possible that he's a marginally better wrestler, but he's clearly a worse striker and doesn't seem to be able to finish people.
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Feb 18, 2019 17:36
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Skip My Posts posted:rory would beat tyron down again Maybe, but Tyron has improved a bit since then, and Rory has taken a staggering amount of damage between the Lawler, Thompson, and Lima fights. But yeah Rory is pretty much the blueprint for how to beat Tyron - good enough wrestling to make it so that Tyron can't easily outwrestle him, good outside striking, and good cardio. Psychotic fearlessness helps too.
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Feb 20, 2019 00:40
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Biafraid posted:That mousasi fight did him no favours either Holy poo poo I had entirely forgotten about that.
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Feb 21, 2019 01:36
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Dave Branch typically has some of the worst, most boring fights you can find, but he has also produced some of the most devestating finishes I've ever seen, including slams and big one punch KOs. Jack Hermansson is tough as gently caress and a good finisher. He seperated a rib in round 1 of one fight and then won by submission in round 2. He's mostly a grappler, though Dave Branch is also a highly respected grappleman from an elite grappleteam.
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Mar 31, 2019 02:24
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Don't bet on Bethe. Aldana is a competent enough boxer that she should be able to win three rounds with just her jab against Bethe's haymakers..
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May 11, 2019 22:02
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Arnie Allen is also on a 5-fight winning streak in a deep division. Gil is a big experience step up for Allen, but Gil is also an underdog for a reason. Also consider that Gil's last win was 6 years ago, before Allen made his UFC debut.
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Jul 3, 2019 19:44
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7/8 JaySB. My condolences.
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Jul 7, 2019 06:25
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jase1 posted:1k on Izzy to win by Ko Tko or sub at +150 I like your izzy bet but not your Blachowitz bet. He has fought a lower tier of opponents than Reyes, and three of his last four opponents were bloated middleweights, two in their "pls retire  " phase of their career. The last time he fought a championship-level light heavyweight (if we can call Santos that) he got KOed. Meanwhile, even though Reyes has one such win vs Weidman, he also has wins over two light heavyweight title challengers and he arguably beat Jon Jones. I don't think I'd start looking at Jan as a value bet until he was better than +350.We'll see though. If I were confident I'd be betting myself.
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Sep 26, 2020 20:41
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Sweaty IT Nerd posted:Crom bless Jase1 There you go. I was wrong.
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Sep 27, 2020 05:07
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Brut posted:I'm willing to listen if you make a strong case for this (or obtain some consensus) but I feel like you're better off creating a parallel thread in PITR, it's okay if both forums have similar threads. The best case to make is that if this thread stays as a single thread, the discussion will be in one place, and if it gets moved to PITR it will be more likely to be seen by non-mma posters, who will then come and post in the mma threads maybe sometimes.
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Jan 11, 2021 22:40
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jase1 posted:2k on Kyler Phillips @+125 Lots of money must be coming in on Anderson because she was running beyond 800 on the weekend and beyond 700 yesterday.
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Mar 5, 2021 04:39
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Megan is 4 inches taller than Nunes
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Mar 6, 2021 00:02
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Horse Inspector posted:There looks like a tonne a good value can be found on this card. I'm interested to know if you had to pick one underdog from it, which would you take? Tucker and Anders aren't the longest odds but look like the best value to me in that I think they both stand a really good chance of winning. In the monthly thread we were discussing how Rafa Garcia is an interesting underdog, but that bet has all of the risks of a guy making the jump to the big leagues. TL;DR though he's a Mexican fighter (i.e. probably has good hands) who is an undefeated Combate Americas champion (has gone 5 full rounds) fighting a guy who has been KOed on the feet, and he has fought UFC vets. Apparently he also has an iron chin.
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Mar 13, 2021 18:34
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Horse Inspector posted:GOOD LORD MAN are you trying to kill me. I do a quick breakdown of every fight for every ufc card in the monthly thread and just pull out interesting things that I find. One fighter on this card has a Win by "Illegal Bite".
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Mar 13, 2021 20:09
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Sorry boys. Just to make sure I went down with the ship I toxxed a 24h prob on Garcia too. It was a competitive fight, at least.
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Mar 14, 2021 00:42
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Marching Powder posted:Why is Ben Askren such a massive underdog against Jake Paul? Ben is not a high level striker but he has done thousands of hours of ring time with dozens of guys that would effortlessly beat the poo poo out of Jake Paul. Because his hips are so bad that he was scheduled to have a hip replacement
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Apr 15, 2021 16:47
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Marching Powder posted:that hip thing was real? what is he hosed up from? Lol yes it's real. He screwed it up wrestling. I hear that there are even points in his instructionals where he says "my hip hurts so this guy is gonna demo this move instead."
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Apr 16, 2021 01:59
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Eat This Glob posted:https://twitter.com/NumbersMMA/status/1412063099960573957?s=20 One time I worked this out for a few fighters and the best "I bet on every one of their fights" money maker I found was Roxanne loving Modafferi. She has multiple >400 upsets on her resume. I don't think I saved the spreadsheet.
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Jul 6, 2021 15:11
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Troy Queef posted:wasn’t she something like +900 when she fought Barber? Yeah I think so. At least in that ballpark
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Jul 6, 2021 16:41
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:5 @ Condit +155 
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Jul 11, 2021 17:01
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Hey just chiming in here because I went and looked at the odds: If Julianna Pena wins tomorrow it would be the biggest upset in UFC title history, and maybe in all of MMA history, and I'm including stuff like Silva-Takase here. The best line I'm seeing for her is +800, and imo that's nowhere near enough payout. She is 2-2 in her last 2 with embarrassing submission losses to strikers and her opponents that she beat in that frame were not good opponents. She has never KOed an opponent standing, or even hurt one as I recall, so she doesn't even have the so-called puncher's chance. Speaking as the guy who does fight breakdowns, and knowing how some goons like to bet for fun, I'd like to caution anyone against putting long shot bets on her for shits and giggles until we start seeing the kinds of odds you'd expect for picking a team that, idk, missed the playoffs this year to win the 2022 world series or something. (I probably just cursed Nunes, but there it is).
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Dec 11, 2021 01:44
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Dec 12, 2021 06:00
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jase1 posted:This of course is my favorite thread ever so I figured I would share this here first because regardless of who wants to see me lose or who wants me to win it was always a loving blast. I don't even know what to say, Jase. You have my complete sympathies, and my guarantee that you have easily given as much back to this community. We're rooting for you, that's for drat sure. Thanks for sharing, too.
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Feb 22, 2022 06:05
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Spivak is that Moldovan guy with the Hapsburg jaw who smothered and tapped out Tai Tuivasa
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Feb 25, 2022 04:47
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Mar 6, 2022 04:24
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File photo: sad Drake
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Mar 6, 2022 19:49
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jase1 posted:My bookie said I was the only one to bet on Spivac and he had bets totaling over 500k on Hardy. That is an excellent detail that cannot be left out of this story. I really love that the bookie still made money on the fight.
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Mar 12, 2022 16:46
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Ah drat. You've let me vicariously gamble through you for years now. All the best, mate.
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Apr 25, 2022 14:14
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Rename PSP to "The Great Jase Space" for a while in addition to keeping this thread title forever
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May 23, 2022 19:50
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Brut posted:Are the odds on Strickland vs Pereira kind of bullshit? The man has 6 MMA fights, having it as a coinflip doesn't make sense to me. The theory is that Pereira is a literal elite kickboxer and Strickland doesn't wrestle often (he's the top middleweight who is least likely to shoot) and defends strikes by moving backward on a straight line.
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Jul 2, 2022 00:51
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Stealth Tiger posted:It seems like all the pros were of the same mind when it came to betting the main event last night... don't bet on sports, kids
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Nov 13, 2022 18:19
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