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ForbiddenWonder posted:+405. I can't believe Machida is such a huge favorite (-335) against Handy. The big question in that fight is weather Couture can get within clinch range before getting picked apart. i think the big question is how can you possibly think randy, who couldn't take down and control big nogueira or vera, and got knocked down by big nogueira, is gonna be able to avoid getting KOd by machida
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Feb 10, 2011 03:21
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the lines were pretty goofy on anderson v leben and franklin, also recently the line for Carwin v Mir was real goofy and i made like 50 bucks
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Feb 10, 2011 03:34
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FantasyMissionForce posted:Jones is in over his head the UFC threw him in the deep end. He hasn't fought anyone with striking or jiu jitsu half as good as Shogun's stephan bonnar don't worry it helps your case on the other hand, don't bet on shogun
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Feb 10, 2011 05:08
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i think the odds of shogun turning up like poo poo are pretty high to begin with, then you have to slice his chances of winning out of whatever's left. Do not bet on Shogun.
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Feb 10, 2011 05:16
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he turned up looking like poo poo against nakamura without a knee injury. Don't bet on Shogun. unless you really want i guess Bundt Cake fucked around with this message at 05:21 on Feb 10, 2011 |
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Feb 10, 2011 05:18
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Always bet on genitals you've seen
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Feb 16, 2011 04:09
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its good to see knowledgeable people like fentry lose because it reminds me don't bet on mma
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Feb 27, 2011 10:36
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Pelleas posted:Anyone think Cb Dollaway would be a good bet against Mark Munoz? i wouldn't bet on this fight. unless one guy owns the wrestling, it's going to be sloppy wrestleboxer hell and between two guys with lovely striking and bad defense, its really hard to say that one guy has an advantage. although if CB's performance against doerksen is indicative of him becoming a super dangerous grappler, he'll probably supergrapple his way to a win in this fight too. but i wouldn't bet on it.
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Mar 2, 2011 22:52
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pelleas, did you end up betting on munoz/dolloway?
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Mar 4, 2011 05:45
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red19fire posted:ahahaha. when your parlays depend on total robberies you should probably rethink the idea that you're good at betting on mma
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Mar 4, 2011 05:53
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Bubba Smith posted:the next MMA underdog to bet on is Matt Wiman over Dennis Siver id like to hear the reasoning for this
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Apr 11, 2011 00:09
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it wasnt enough to handle tavares but wimans hail mary KO was better than rashads on chuck and wiman got screwed out of recognition for having the most brutal one punch knock out that year
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Apr 11, 2011 20:42
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Beowulf LaGrange posted:i lost the money. you aren't the first to lose their fortune on a horse
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May 5, 2011 20:23
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willie_dee posted:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdr4TFJpn1c - if he can beat him like this then he is probably a dead cert against anyone in the UFC that ring lol
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Jun 6, 2011 20:39
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the aftermath posted:Made a little coin on a parlay with some heavy chalk last night. Jorgensen/Stephens was easy money. You should watch Nunes fights again if you haven't. He doesn't have a lot of power, and mostly relies on narrowly outpointing guys in the striking in the second two rounds. Unless Kenny's cut is unbelievably bad, Nunes is going to be in the deepest water he's been in his entire career on every front.
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Jun 6, 2011 20:42
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fatherdog posted:If there's one thing you can take away from Silva/Maia and Silva/Leites, it's that a grappler that fights cautiously on the feet is not at all guaranteed to get blown out early against Silva. I agree with your point but I thought thales pursued takedowns aggressively for the first two rounds. I might be misremembering, but I don't think he started doing his buttflop thing until round 3, and I think he actually won two rounds on some scorecards well if this play by play is right at all I don't remember correctly http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/4/18/843563/ufc-97-anderson-silva-vs-thales quote:Official Scorecards: 49-46, 48-47, 50-46 thales came closer to beating Anderson than anyone but chael Bundt Cake fucked around with this message at 19:47 on Aug 15, 2011 |
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Aug 15, 2011 19:43
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hughes is a dog against sanchez and i need to be here now so i dont lose any money on this
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Sep 2, 2011 06:43
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Don't bet on mma
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Oct 3, 2011 20:11
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Omgkittens posted:Palaszewski is at 3 to 1 odds to win against Griffin, which seems like pretty good odds to me. Tyson has been looking pretty average for some time now. Might have to put some cash on Palaszewski to win. palaszweski has good punching and great, really phenomenal power, and tyson griffin is the absolute stereotype of wrestleboxer stupidity, but realistically much worse guys have used their grappling to beat bart, and he probably will too. barts always got a real punchers chance unlike most times when people say a guy has a punchers chance, but you probably shouldnt spend your money this way
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Oct 25, 2011 19:27
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Bubba Smith posted:The only underdog bet I feel strongly about is Terry Etim over Edson Barboza. I don't know why because I don't really know poo poo about Terry Etim, but it feels right. quoting in advance you bet on a skinny twig man
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Jan 14, 2012 18:54
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Captain Log posted:Has anyone noticed that Gonzaga is fighting a weird skinny/chubby bullshido guy? Put all of your moneys on the Gonzaga. The only thing Gonzaga was every really great at was smashing regional type fighters so yeah
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Jan 14, 2012 19:38
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Bubba Smith posted:twig man fell down like a tree etim had the chops to strike with him but his skinny twig legs didnt hold up
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Jan 15, 2012 06:21
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Kos has a presumed wrestling advantage in most fights, so Koscheck v a wrestler who isn't very well known,., I can understand why someone would think that Kos would have it in the bag.
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Feb 3, 2012 22:44
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MrSmokes posted:but I don't think he has so much of an advantage that he'll reliably get Pierce down and keep him there. there's a good chance this assumption is incorrect
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Feb 3, 2012 23:04
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fatherdog posted:There is, but there's also a good chance it's not, and I'm not sure we've actually seen enough to say either way. Even if Kos does have a big wrestling advantage he still might Stand and Bang !!! anyway
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Feb 3, 2012 23:07
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fatherdog posted:Kos is usually pretty consistent in that he'll Stand And Bang until he starts getting the worst of it, at which point he'll immediately start wrestling. Sure but there are fights he approaches differently. And I think he might be a bad judge of how the stand up is going for him
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Feb 3, 2012 23:11
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fatherdog posted:Honestly aside from the Daley fight I have a hard time thinking of any, unless you go back to before the second Diego fight which was where he started to have confidence in his punching. The ones that come to mind are the Diego rematch, where his plan seemed to be more along the lines of stay far away then steal the round with a takedown at the end, until Diego swept him in two seconds and his plan changed to stay far away 100% of the time. Though he never ended up getting in trouble standing, so maybe he would've shot. The Alves fight he seemed to pretty much want to get it down like the Daley fight but he couldn't. The Lytle fight too, he looked to get it down until he gassed hard and Lytle punched him a bunch of times in the third. Against Hazelett Koscheck kept swinging even after he got rocked, although he did go for takedowns in that fight. Anyway it's not many exceptions but it seems like there are times when he has a bit of a different game plan.
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Feb 3, 2012 23:25
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Don't bet on Lauzon against Pettis. its crazy. Pettis is a really good fighter, and theres a good chance Lauzon won't be able to get him down at all. And even if he gets him down, theres slim to no chance hes going to be the first guy to TKO Pettis. There are a lot of times when I have and would pick Lauzon but this ain't one
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Feb 22, 2012 19:14
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Bubba Smith posted:Alright, this sounds good. Just like fatherdog talked about Joe Lauzon seems like a really good fighter too (at certain times during the fight) and I figured he may be able to win the first two rounds in a fight that goes to the decision. But I guess I'll just stay away and put more money on Frankie. Lauzon has the skills/brains to take out guys with some weakness he can exploit, usually poo poo ground game or bad punching habits. Pettis looked wrestleable against Clay, but hardly anyone has the style of wrestling that Clay does, and Pettis has showed some good wrestling ability before. Joe can't imitate Clay's takedown attack for three rounds unless he's tripled his endurance. So unless he has found some hole to exploit in Pettis' striking, or something he does on the ground that Joe could take advantage of to land shots, I don't really know what Joe's path to victory would be. Pettis has fought Castillo, Roller, Henderson and Guida in the past few years so he's familiar with fighting wrestlers as good or better than Lauzon. Both Pettis & Joe outwrestled Jeremy Stephens. Joe did it by a bigger margin but Stephens took that one on short notice. THe fights are years apart so maybe Stephens improved, too, who knows.
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Feb 23, 2012 01:55
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Thermos H Christ posted:don't buy this card and pretend you won $50 this is the best mma betting advice I've read since don't bet on mma.
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Jun 23, 2012 20:53
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Im gonna go ahead and say Rich Franklin winning by decision is probably the most likely thing that will happen but please don't blame me if you follow my advice and it turns out wrong Russow isn't likely to get knocked out but he is pretty likely to lose the stand up or get tapped if he takes it down so probably don't bet on russow
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Jun 23, 2012 21:03
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Ninja PD posted:Oh Bundt, Ive been sweating it out for someone to agree with me so I have some justification for my degenerate ways. A sort of transference of responsibility, so if it doesn't work out, I coming after you. I'm coming after your sweet rear end Bundt... sounds good
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Jun 23, 2012 21:38
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jase1 posted:Does anyone think Ortiz has a shot of winning? I am a casual MMA fan and I only know him on name recognition so I don't know if +225 is good value. Its not, really. He could get Forrest down and hammer his face enough to steal rounds, but hes got the worst spine in the world and can't get Forrest down reliably and even if he does, Forrest swept him in the last fight and wound up getting the better of things, and as far as standing, neither guy is likely to put the other one out but Forrest can move better and has way more solid kickboxing skills Don't bet on this: 
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Jul 4, 2012 23:22
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Cormier might be stronger I guess but I'd say since hes probably a diet away from 205 and Mir can hulk up to 250 and still be relatively quick and mobile there's a pretty good chance Cormier won't have a strength advantage Also as far as the striking I don't know why Cormier is so much better than Mir. Both guys have some good points and some bad points with their hands and they both mostly rely on them Bundt Cake fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Apr 18, 2013 |
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Apr 18, 2013 20:02
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Elemennop posted:Unless Mir has changed, from what I've seen, he has terrible, terrible striking defense for an elite fighter. This is heavyweight quote:I'm too lazy to actually research his fights, Then I recommend not commenting quote:but looking it up on fightmetric, A bad decision
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Apr 19, 2013 01:05
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Elemennop posted:I admit my failures, but I'm not about to start breaking down tape of Frank Mir for fun. And that's fair enough. I don't think Frank's striking is so much worse than the other top guys at HW, though. Yeah Junior KO'd him but he's the best at KO'ing people in the division. He smoked Nogeuira once and got punched silly once. Other than that he's done pretty well for himself He does have the ability to instantly lose that I wouldn't be surprised to see in a fight against anyone
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Apr 19, 2013 01:16
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Ty1990 posted:Just lost my job..lets get some winners in here. lol
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May 18, 2013 20:37
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thee best thread
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May 26, 2013 20:31
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Given how he's looked lately I think Damien Maia is always going to be a big favorite against a grappling based fighter until one beats him
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Jun 24, 2013 21:46
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fatherdog posted:I'm not sure characterizing Kos as a "grappler" is really reflective of how that match is going to go. So then if Kos does stay on his feet, which I don't think is a given, hes gonna be relying on his stand up, which is poo poo. I don't think he's got too good of a shot in this fight
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Jun 24, 2013 21:50
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