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Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

Le Saboteur posted:

What is this legendary Mark Coleman fight that everyone bet on?

Mark Coleman vs Randy Couture, his last fight, UFC 109. He was a sizable underdog. The reasoning was Couture was also old and wasn't much of a threat for a KO, so Coleman could hang in there and ultimately his knees would have one more fight left in them. NO, they did not.

It started off as a few people honestly putting their money on Coleman as a "smart" play, but then after a few there were just a ton of bandwagoners who wanted to get in on the action. like 20 goons lost hundreds of dollars. This has since been repeated about once a year since 2010 and is my favorite tradition of these forums.

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Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

manyak posted:

I dont see a lot of value in either of the title fights on the card at their current lines, maybe if you got in on Aldo at +140 or whatever but i wouldnt be fist pumping over it, i think if you are betting on toss up fights like this where there are a lot of unknowns, unless you have some secret info no one else has youre probably just losing the vig in the long run

How about in a prop bet for Weidman/Rockhold not going the distance? Currently it's nearly even money (-145 for not going the distance or -110 for under 3.5 rounds) and neither guy sees the scorecards very often, or the 3rd round for that matter. I suppose there's not a ton of value in it too, but if your choice is either a coinflip between Weidman or Rockhold or a coinflip between either guy getting a TKO/submission across 25 minutes I would think that's a better bet.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
Chiesa is bigger and a decent wrestler. I don't think his skills are up there elsewhere, but I could see Chiesa grinding Miller away for 3 rounds.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

Marching Powder posted:

yeah i think back to the pat healy fight and could see that but i honestly think miller is better and at those odds absolutely deserves a bet

oh yeah, Miller has consistently been one of the top UFC lightweights for over 5 years for a reason. I just think gamblers/odds makers are expecting Chiesa to stick to wrestling so Miller as an sizable underdog isn't too bad. However if he tries to stand with Miller or can't get him down he's gonna get his face busted wide open.

either way I hope your bet pays off/Miller gets another win.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

jase1 posted:

I HAVE THE WEIRDEST BONER RIGHT NOW.

you deserve it man after so many years of bad breaks.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

outy posted:

The only reason that Dada5000 isn't +1000 is because there's a good chance the fix is in. Kimbo is undoubtedly lovely at MMA, but this guy makes him look like a world champ.
Exactly. There is no way Kimbo loses that fight unless the fix is definitely in. As awful & old as Kimbo is he's actually had some real experience as a fighter and has spent the last 10 years doing some kind of MMA/boxing training. Dada5000 is just a fight promoter/entertainer who is getting some easy money.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
I dunno what Coker's plan is for fixing this fight as a Dada5000 win, but as long as it involves Mark Coleman's triumphant return to MMA I'm alright with it.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
jase1, your money deserved way, way, way, better than that. I'm truly sorry man.

That was ugly even for a Kimbo fight. What in the gently caress.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
if you could please bet enough money on Michael Bisping to kill him I would appreciate it, thank you jase1.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
Yeah +400 on Nate sounds good.

that being said Conor wins by KO round 1 +145 have I been wrong yet?? have I been wrong yet??

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
I've used Bovada over the years and I've never had a problem (US-West). I usually get my money within 7 days of requesting a withdrawal and anytime I've called customer support they've been helpful. They are the absolute shittiest when it comes to odds and props though so only use it for entertainment purposes/casual gambling.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
starting to feel like it's time to bet on Conor.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
in regards to jase1:

Bubba Smith posted:

You're my hero. :patriot:


Also Reminder:

Triticum Guzzler posted:

let's organise a colemancaust memorial bet for ufc 200 where everybody agrees to throw away thousands on an unwinnable bet

We've got Cain vs Browne and Diaz vs Conor 2 so far. Maybe Conor McGregor knows the best way for him to beat Nate Diaz is to have a hundred goons risk $50 on him. It's all starting to make sense.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

Triticum Guzzler posted:

even with wonderboy's amazing last fight i don't fancy his chances against rory

yeah. Rory MacDonald is a ridiculous dude to put away and comes well-prepared for every match. Thompson might win most of the exchanges early in the fight but across 5 rounds I would not bet against Rory.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
anybody betting on pettis tomorrow? he's the smallest favorite he's been in years and I can't imagine him dropping 3 fights in a row

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
gently caress Anthony Pettis. that's my post cap UFC 197 gambling story

Bundt Cake posted:

fatherdog had barboza/pettis called. I dont know exactly why he thought/how he knew Barboza was technically superior to pettis (or if theres some fatherdog-big dog-barboza newjersyism happening) but he was right about it.

fatherdog definitely called it and he also pointed out that Pettis could have an advantage over Barboza in catching him with a wild kick and Barboza's chin ain't the best, which it definitely ain't and I believe will keep him out of ever being champion, so -150 wasn't too bad of odds for me to go in. But that's getting away from my point which is gently caress Anthony Pettis.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
Danny Castillo almost finished Edson Barboza and wasn't a fluke but in fact just fought against him way better than Anthony fuckin gPettis gently caress him forever thank you

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

outy posted:

the emotional stability to handle losing when you "shouldn't".

the Alistair Overeem character arc

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

Marching Powder posted:

Put a 20 on a Stephens / garbrandt parlay.

Good bet

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

jase1 posted:

Nah I will never bet on that stuff I will stick the the NBA playoffs, College and pro football and of course MMA.

jase did you bet on cleveland or Golden State? Thank you and I hope you keep getting rich.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

jase1 posted:

I had golden State. Even though Cavs are my home team it was a consensus among my gambling friends they would lose game one by at least 10. I am betting Cleveland ML for this next game I have seen Lebron take over games in person and I fully expect him to to practically win this game himself or keep it close. Smart play is cavs with the points but any time I can get a pissed off Lebron at 2-1 I will take it especially in the NBA finals. Lebron is a master in game 2's especially after losing game 1.

thank you. I bet $60 on warriors winning the whole series (back when the playoffs started and the line was -150) and then I have two separate plays of $10 that Warriors win 4-2 and another $10 on Warriors winning 4-3. So I hope you win your moneyline tomorrow and Cleveland pushes it to at least 6 games.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
we all agree that the Mark Coleman Commemorative UFC 200 Losing Bet is going to be on the Lesnar fight, right?

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

Lloyd Boner posted:

lol apparently Pinnacle opened Hunt as a +200 underdog and he's been bet down to around -180. Good on whoever got on board that train.

Personally, I will probably bet on Brock a bit to ensure his defeat.

yeah I'm thinking a Brock bet.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

jase1 posted:

1k on rory and 1k on cerrone and then 1k on both of those in a parlay and because I have no where else to post this I put 5k on cavs ml.

I hope you win all of these

I also hope lebron james wins a performance of the night bonus

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
I put $25 on my man from Ire25and, Connor MacGregger

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
I made money off of McGregor, Rumble, and Cerrone tonight. Holy poo poo I forgot what it was like to walk away from an MMA card with more money than I started.

I'm sorry jase1 and other guys who lost

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

Fozzy The Bear posted:

Someone start from the beginning and count up all of Jase1's bets, I'm curious if he is up or down over it all.

he's way up. manyak counted the numbers up back when people were making fun of jase and he was up overall, relevant post:

manyak posted:

just from quickly skimming his posts in the thread and adding it up Jase is up about $500 or $600 lifetime betting on UFC (assuming he wasnt lying about his bets) so that goes to show the confirmation bias going into thinking that he always loses and its hilarious. Yes you will lose more often than not when you bet on underdogs, yes sportsbetting is a losing proposition long run for the most part, but not for the reason "MMA is unpredictable and you lose sometimes" or whatever people seem to think

It was funny when everyone bet on Coleman though.

that was before he went on a string of $5k Robbie Lawler bets that paid out well. He went on such a good run that the name of the thread was changed.

But -$10k is a pretty big dent tonight, ouch. Sorry bro.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

NickRoweFillea posted:

Where do you guys do your betting?

bovada for me, in the states online.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.
I put a few shekels on Overeem, Faber, and Werdum single bets. Was tempted to do Overeem by KO at +180 but it's possible Stipe survives a few rounds, wins a few rounds, and Overeem barely gets by with a decision win. Same goes for Stipe. So I felt the straight up +115 bet was a little safer for about the same return. there's my analysis

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Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.

Skip My Posts posted:

supposedly ngannou is favored

i'm gonna bet on him to win by KO.

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