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Bundt Cake posted:Even if Kos does have a big wrestling advantage he still might Stand and Bang !!! anyway Kos is usually pretty consistent in that he'll Stand And Bang until he starts getting the worst of it, at which point he'll immediately start wrestling.
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Feb 3, 2012 23:09
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Bundt Cake posted:Sure but there are fights he approaches differently. Honestly aside from the Daley fight I have a hard time thinking of any, unless you go back to before the second Diego fight which was where he started to have confidence in his punching. quote:And I think he might be a bad judge of how the stand up is going for him This, I can agree with.
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Feb 3, 2012 23:18
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Bundt Cake posted:The Alves fight he seemed to pretty much want to get it down like the Daley fight but he couldn't. The Lytle fight too, he looked to get it down until he gassed hard and Lytle punched him a bunch of times in the third. See these fit in with my "keep it standing till he's getting the worst of it", because he didn't start shooting in the Alves fight until Alves had already knocked him down, and one of the first things Lytle did in that fight iirc was throw about fifteen haymakers, about five of which connected which I figured at the time was, despite Lytle's lack of power, enough to make Kos decide it was a better idea to sit on him.
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Feb 4, 2012 02:44
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Bubba Smith posted:Me neither. Lauzon is one of the most dangerous guys in the division, but only for the first six or seven minutes. Plan accordingly.
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Feb 22, 2012 18:10
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Mark Hunt is finally going to get that armbar.
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Feb 24, 2012 22:18
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Haraksha posted:I remember it being a really close fight with Belcher looking much stronger in the latter part of round three than he had in rounds 1 or 2 (because of Akiyama's aforementioned cardio issues). I'm not sure what I'd think if I watched it again. It's probably one of those fights where Akiyama "controlled" the fight but Belcher "did more damage". And again, looking good at the end of the fight leaves an impression, but it doesn't negate rounds 1 or 2. Akiyama got smacked around in round 1 and was given the round by two judges because he took belcher down, even though he got the worst of it on the ground and Belcher swept him
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Feb 25, 2012 04:53
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If you think that an undisclosed injury and being fat doesn't prevent Rampage from beating a dude that got dropped by Tito, stevecofield posted:Holy moly. The steam against Rampage has reached insane levels. He's all the way down to minus-150 off shore and -170 at LVH.
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Feb 26, 2012 03:54
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Bubba Smith posted:I thought Demetrious Johnson had to work to keep muscle on at 135 (similar to how Diego Sanchez does for 170)? So wouldn't Johnson be just as fast if not faster at 125 after he sheds some of the excess muscle? The question isn't "Will Johnson be as fast at 125" (he will, obviously), it's "Will he be as much faster than other 125ers as he was 135ers?" If he's so fast he's got a huge speed advantage over even other 125ers, that's one thing; if he's fast but not so fast that there's a big difference between him and the guys he's facing now that's something else.
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Mar 2, 2012 01:31
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Anybody tempted to bet on Fisher/Stout should probably be aware of this - http://www.mmafighting.com/ufc/2012/6/20/3099136/spencer-fisher-pretty-sure-fridays-ufc-on-fx-4-fight-will-be-his-last
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Jun 22, 2012 05:06
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Bubba Smith posted:it means you would have to bet 20 dollars to make 1 dollar off of Daniel Cormier. you could risk 100 dollars, which is a lot of burgers and beer, and barely make enough to buy another burger or a beer. conversely, you could bet the cost of one burger on Dion Staring and then basically win a year's supply of burgers. 
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Jan 10, 2013 03:33
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vainman posted:Why not? Lombard is pretty passive when he fights but his TDD should be enough to keep Okami off of him. Lombard is trash, and has a puncher's chance against Okami and nothing more. Okami got outwrestled by Alan Belcher in his last fight and he's still going to outgrapple Lombard.
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Mar 1, 2013 03:38
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Steve Glutenberg posted:he got dropped by a jab from a grappler before he scraped by mac danzig. a featherweight grappler. a japanese featherweight grappler. On the other hand,lightweight Diego got outboxed by Joe Stevenson.
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Mar 3, 2013 02:13
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DumbWhiteGuy posted:Condit is up to +120 some places, which is surprising because a whole lot of people think he will win (although I'm picking Hendricks). Alternatively, I think Ellenberger should probably have a really good shot to beat up Marquardt since he's pretty good and Marquardt is off TRT (and not been doing that great lately anyway). Ellenberger is at -160 so that seems cool to me. Marquardt is staggeringly overrated, but the one area in which he is as good as advertised is cardio, and that makes me leary of an Ellenberger bet since he always fades down the stretch.
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Mar 16, 2013 02:29
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Gustafsson should probably win narrowly on the feet and big on the ground, but the Shogun fight did demonstrate that A) there are big holes in his defense and B) he won't necessarily go for takedowns as much as he probably should. Mousasi does have pretty good power and accuracy on the feet, so he has the potential for an upset. Do I think he'll win? No, probably not, but if the odds against him are good enough it might be worth throwing some cash down on him.
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Mar 30, 2013 20:08
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"Master of Sport" is a term in post-Soviet bloc countries for high level sport certification so that may just be a poor translation.
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Apr 5, 2013 03:07
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Fat Twitter Man posted:It's not overall skill level so much as that he has very few paths to victory. He's definitely going to be outstruck and outwrestled, and Cormier is going to be able to dictate the pace of the fight enough to avoid his sub game. It's not at all obvious that Cormier will be able to outstrike Mir, and even if he can outstrike him technically he could still very easily get hurt. Mir has significant power on the feet. If I had to bet I'd bet on Cormier because he's unquestionably the better wrestler, so if he figures he's better on the ground the fight's going to be there, and if he figures he's better on the feet the fight is going to be there. But it's not entirely clear he'll be better on the feet and even from the top it's far from obvious he's better on the ground.
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Apr 18, 2013 20:19
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Boregasm posted:Cormier outclassed Barnett on the feet with movement and speed. Barnett has really solid boxing too. Barnett does have very solid boxing, but A) his game is very different from Mir's, and B) both Barnett and Cormier broke their hands in the first round of that fight so using it as a predictor for anything is fairly questionable.
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Apr 18, 2013 20:20
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MrSmokes posted:Cody Mckenzie has no real MMA skills MrSmokes posted:Leonard Garcia
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Apr 23, 2013 22:16
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Vinnie as an underdog is actually a pretty good bet imo
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Apr 25, 2013 22:04
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Lloyd Boner posted:
It's pretty high-level. quote:And if this fight stays standing, do either of them seem to have a significant advantage? I don't think so. They're both pretty averse to being hit and neither of them is that great at striking.
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Apr 25, 2013 22:48
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DumbWhiteGuy posted:I just constantly expect him to dive at the floor at the first sign of being punched in the face. Fortunately, he's fighting Phil Davis, so the first sign of being punched in the face will come about midway through round 3.
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Apr 26, 2013 00:42
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turntabler posted:I like Glover and think he's a good fighter but I don't get the whole "future of the LHW division" tag that's been applied to him. Applied to him by whom, because it certainly wasn't anyone here.
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May 22, 2013 01:32
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Fastbreak posted:My Thiago bet to finish within 3 just put me over the 2K mark for the year, going 11 for 16 so far betting only on +bets, with 2 exceptions. I wouldn't say thinking Shields can outwrestle him is necessarily unreasonable, but it's certainly not certain enough to make it an "obvious" bet.
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Jun 12, 2013 15:44
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Bundt Cake posted:Given how he's looked lately I think Damien Maia is always going to be a big favorite against a grappling based fighter until one beats him I'm not sure characterizing Kos as a "grappler" is really reflective of how that match is going to go.
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Jun 24, 2013 21:47
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Bundt Cake posted:So then if Kos does stay on his feet, which I don't think is a given, hes gonna be relying on his stand up, which is poo poo How would you describe it compared to, say, Mark Munoz
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Jun 24, 2013 21:51
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Even if Ellenberger doesn't KO him early, Rory hasn't done anything so far to suggest that he won't get wrestlefucked into the ground.
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Jul 15, 2013 04:07
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Lid posted:Cole Miller is the better grappler of the two. Based on what, exactly
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Aug 15, 2013 03:21
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Lid posted:Cole Miller is the better grappler of the two. fatherdog posted:Based on what, exactly
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Aug 17, 2013 22:55
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jase1 posted:Wrong. Your two successful bets on this card bring your overall record to 9 successful bets and 26 unsuccessful ones in this thread, so maybe save the smug posts for when you've managed to bat .500
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Aug 18, 2013 17:39
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jase1 posted:How would that have worked out last night? Somebody who bet the opposite of all your picks would have lost money last night, but not nearly as much money as they'd have won on every previous event.
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Aug 18, 2013 17:45
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MrSmokes posted:As for Vera/Rothwell I just think Vera is straight up better than Rothwell, who's really lucky to be in the UFC still. Rothwell is still in the UFC because he's 2-2 and never lost more than one match in a row. Vera, on the other hand, has won one of his last five and is only still in the UFC because Thiago Silva pissed hot after literally beating him like a drum.
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Aug 22, 2013 14:02
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world b lee posted:Unless Jacare's striking and cardio have improved significantly From what, 2011? Because that was the last time his striking looked like it'd have much trouble with Okami.
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Sep 2, 2013 03:14
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Bubba Smith posted:Sure. Okami is one of the best in the world. He lacks heart, that's about it. What matches, exactly, has Okami demonstrated this alleged lack of heart in
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Sep 4, 2013 19:33
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Bubba Smith posted:However, in the Boetsch and Lombard fights I think Okami showed a slight lack of heart. Boetsch started pressuring him a bit he didn't know how to react and then got TKO'd, and then recently when Lombard came on strong in the 3rd round he almost got TKO'd again, but Lombard kind of sucks so Okami was able to recover. You know that "heart" and "chin" are different words, right
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Sep 4, 2013 19:48
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Howdy, everybody who inexplicably thought Jacare was going to be outstruck
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Sep 5, 2013 02:01
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The number of people who thought Jacare was going to get outstruck by Okami of all people was genuinely baffling to me.
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Sep 6, 2013 03:56
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MrSmokes posted:Diaz, Bendo, Healy. Miller's good but he has always faded when put up against top 10 fighters. All of those guys beat the poo poo out of him after he started to slow down. This is pretty stupid. He didn't slow down at all in the Diaz and Bendo fights; he fought at exactly the same pace until Diaz clipped him, then he fought at exactly the same pace till he shot into a guillotine. Bendo beat the poo poo out of him from the opening bell, and he actually sped up in the third round despite having mono. The only fight he even remotely slowed down in is the Healy fight, and Healy's entire career is him grinding on dudes at a pace that wears them down in the third. There's literally a dozen fights where Miller goes into the third without slowing and even speeds up, including the Wiman fight that he took on a week's notice.
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Sep 23, 2013 14:37
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Silva got merked by Fitch because Fitch set a pace that wore him down till he was praying for death. Dong's takedowns and ground control might be on Fitch's level, but even if they are his cardio is a much bigger question mark,.
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Sep 25, 2013 04:30
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Marching Powder posted:Wow I wonder if the Australian bookies know something they got Bradley as the definitive underdog They know that Australians aren't very good at betting.
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Oct 11, 2013 14:10
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FYI, Melvin changed camps yet again for this fight, he and Grudge got into some kind of monetary dispute and now he's with ATT.
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Oct 25, 2013 16:38
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