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Boregasm posted:Cormier is a far superior wrestler, is faster, and has more fluid footwork. He also hits pretty hard and has really solid striking technique. You'd have to bet on Mir knocking down Cormier because he isn't likely to get a takedown. I think itll look more like Cormier vs Barnett, since barnett and mir are kinda similar in a lot of ways but the thing is Mir has a much worse chin and wont take as long to blast out
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Aug 22, 2012 04:04
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Ty1990 posted:I got Melvin tonight. Feel free to laugh in about 2 hours. Youre safe this time
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Dec 16, 2012 01:51
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Steve Glutenberg posted:but he's just too big! and he's eating so healthy, spaghetti bolognese (covered in cheese) and a red bull before training, and after training, chicken wings (covered in cheese), some nice healthy broccoli (covered in cheese), and a shitload of potato those hosed up looking things are chicken wings covered in cheese? Someone post the louisgod slime steak POST HASTE
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Apr 3, 2013 02:38
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For everyone keeping track, multi millionaire pro poker player sponsored by the UFC goon Jcarver (doesnt post much or at all anymore since the poker forum closed) bet $15k on sonnen tonight so you can add that to the goon win/loss ledger
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Aug 17, 2013 21:52
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maffew buildings posted:have you ever met someone who repeatedly attempts to do something, is awful at it then when called on being awful at it they say some version of 'whatever i don't really care much anyway', then the first time they get it marginally right they start gloating? He probably genuinely doesnt care that much, hes a compulsive gambler and if all his gambling stories he posts are true (maybe) he will sit down at a poker table with a couple grand and get drunk and lose it pretty often so a few bucks on MMA every couple weeks wouldnt matter that much to him. Hes just really defensive and combative so he is gonna have that reaction when a bunch of people make fun of him and his picks. he probably gets more enjoyment from gloating here about his rare wins than he does from actually winning the 10 bucks or whatever
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Aug 21, 2013 20:22
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Yeah hioki should win this fight on paper, and he has the talent to win it with ease but hes not a great bet from a sports betting perspective. He has the opposite of all the things you look for value in in MMA betting (japanese, not a wrestler, style that judges dont like, on a losing streak, hasnt fought in a long time, etc) on top of which hes a favorite so you are getting no value on your money. I still really hope he wins though, he only lost against Lamas who turned out to be really underrated and lost a bullshit decision to guida which arent 2 bad losses at 145 Last event i had $50 at +300 against my gambler friend on michael johnson against Lauzon, now the same guy is giving me even odds on my $150 that Condit/Kampmann wont go to decision. Im hoping kampmanns chin doesnt hold up, condit just keeps getting better and i think theres no way he doesnt find a hole to TKO kampmann some time during 5 rounds. Lets go... double or nothing... Betting on MMA is good to me manyak fucked around with this message at 22:27 on Aug 28, 2013 |
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Aug 28, 2013 21:54
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willie_dee posted:I just put some money on Hioki based on this threads comments You showed us!
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Aug 28, 2013 23:49
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vainman posted:
Not impossible because there are people that make their living sports betting but its not easy, and i dont personally know of any that do it betting on MMA. Youre still betting against the average idiot bettor so even with the juice there is dead money to be found in certain lines at certain times, but way less than there used to be in MMA now that people know the sport a bit better The unromantic part of sports betting is that to win you arent just picking who's going to win, its how much value there is in the line. Like if i think gustaffsson wins that fight in your example 25% of the time then there is some tiny value in taking that bet even though 3/4 times youre just throwing your money away. And then the part that makes MMA so high variance is if jones just destroys gustaffsson in the first round i have no way of knowing if there was expected value in my bet (aside from the obvious fact that it lost in this instance) since they wont be rematching, at least not under similar conditions. Whereas in Ball Spoarts teams play against each other a million times a season Im way up lifetime in MMA betting but my bets are few and far between and i try to only take lines that i think have insanely high value (and it helps that i have rich gambler friends who will take action with no house edge) to make up for the crazy high short term variance. Like when i bet 500 bucks on Cain over Lesnar when he was a 3:1 underdog or something. Id take that bet all day whereas i wouldnt put more than a couple bucks on jones/gus just because i dont see any obvious value and i have no special insight into that one. I think jones probably does win around 85% of the time, maybe a tiny bit more but then why bet on it tl;dr this avatar is cool
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Sep 6, 2013 00:15
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I havent been paying attention much in the leadup to this card but Healy at that line seems pretty wild
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Sep 20, 2013 02:29
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vainman posted:$10.00 to win $550.00 Pending 9/21/13 6:00pm Props Fighting 12021 Mike Ricci wins SUB of the Night +5500* vs Not SUB of the Night Winner/no winner Lol these bets own. Ricci for sub of the night is killer
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Sep 21, 2013 20:06
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henkman posted:Dong Hyun Kim isn't as good as Fitch How do you know?
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Sep 24, 2013 22:29
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Fat Twitter Man posted:Yeah, I thought of that, but as you said, Silva isn't Condit. You're right that that makes me think that Kim isn't as tough as Fitch (getting KO'ed by a Hendricks left isn't a black mark on anyone's chin). but getting KOd by ducking your chin directly into a Condit flying knee is a black mark on your toughness?
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Sep 25, 2013 03:57
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wow kim is a 3:1 dog against erick silva? theres value there
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Oct 9, 2013 04:05
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vainman posted:$10.00 to win $75.00 Pending 10/9/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1043 Shields wins by 5 rounds unanimous dec +750* vs Any other result Hmmm....... not bad..... maybe.
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Oct 10, 2013 00:12
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Kim probably loses that fight 5 or 6 times out of 10 but still him being a 3:1 underdog seemed crazy to me and is worth a bet, good job to those who bet on him
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Oct 10, 2013 02:32
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Fat Twitter Man posted:He was about 30 seconds from being TKO'd himself. Oh word????????????????????
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Oct 10, 2013 02:42
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attackmole posted:I have money on Boestch, Marqaurdt, and Sot. Noons has a lot of power and Sot seems to have a lovely chin nowadays and is only getting older, and its not like hes a fantastic wrestler who will be able to nullify Noons' striking necessarily
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Oct 19, 2013 16:12
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Yeah it was a bad decision and Noons should have won, but i guess if ryan couture can come close then sotiropolous can maybe get the job done. Im still skeptical, i wouldnt take sot at anything less than like +210
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Oct 20, 2013 00:03
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attackmole posted:To fill the void of the NC for Guillard/Pearson I just tossed 7 bucks on Machida by decision at +195. Good bet.
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Oct 26, 2013 22:16
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Im seeing Bader at around -450 on some sites, I hate betting on huge favorites but there is probably still value there. I just think perosh doesnt win this one any more than one in like 20 times. Its as close to a squash match as you see in UFC now even though i like perosh and dislike bader
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Dec 6, 2013 18:06
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JoeRules posted:Alright, time for us to all laugh, I suppose. 1u on McDonald +125, .5u McDonald inside distance +220. Mcdonald inside distance at +220 feels like an absolute sucker bet, Faber is really hard to finish and those odds dont seem worth it
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Dec 15, 2013 03:21
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I have a little on Benavidez at +135
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Dec 15, 2013 03:59
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Boom
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Dec 15, 2013 04:01
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Fozzy The Bear posted:I want to put $100 on Weidman, I live in USA, what website should I use? Bovada, they have the best line on him right now of the US-facing sites and they are one of the best for reliable withdrawals (for poker at least, but i assume its the same for sports betting, though im not American)
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Dec 16, 2013 07:55
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2 fat 4 my lambo posted:Barnett at -180 is a good bet. this has been your manyak lock of the night I hadnt even really looked at the lines for this fight since i have money on the main event with friends at our own lines, but i agree thats a pretty good bet. if he was like -150 id be really tempted
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Dec 28, 2013 01:26
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All i bet this event was on weidman to win, and further unauthorized use of the manyak lock trademark will receive due punishment from the Mods.
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Dec 29, 2013 20:56
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Marching Powder posted:hahaha And they dont distinguish as to which fight, just any 1 of the fights? thats pretty sweet
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Jan 31, 2014 03:30
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5:1 on Dillashaw taking down Barao in their fight seems like pretty crazy value
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May 23, 2014 23:07
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So does that one sorta takedown/all the knockdowns give TJ that "most takedowns" prop or is it a push?
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May 25, 2014 05:56
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I hadnt looked at the odds and Maynard at +150 or so seems like pretty good value to me, but then im not yet that convinced his chin is deteriorated and hes broken or whatever. He can feel free to prove me wrong
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Aug 17, 2014 03:03
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masato tatanka posted:phil davis is +179 to get most takedowns vs. glover lol what the gently caress
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Oct 24, 2014 22:40
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vainman posted:Like, most takedowns in that fight or on the night? in that fight. I.e. more than glover gets on him
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Oct 24, 2014 23:42
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masato tatanka posted:now who is laughing BITCH !!!!!! Yeah that was free money even though my book had it at more like +110 i wouldve taken it at like -200
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Oct 26, 2014 05:06
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Viper_3000 posted:I make dumb parlay bets. at what odds did you get Machida/Dolloway within 5? Parlays are a sucker bet but thats far from a crazy parlay, Barao is like a 7 to 1 favorite
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Dec 21, 2014 05:49
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If you can get thatch at anything close to even money its an absolute gift. Bendo is 3-3 in his last 6 fights, and 2 of the wins were split decisions that easily couldve gone either way. Hes used to being the bigger stronger guy, and hes taking this fight on short notice against a much bigger stronger guy. If you think Bendo is easily gonna wrestle Thatch remember that Bendo really struggles with wrestling guys that are taller/bigger than him -- he got taken down a bunch by Cowboy in his last fight and hes coming off basically the same training camp for Thatch. Oh and also Bendo got totally iced by body kicks against Pettis and Thatch is a huge WW who has knocked everyone out in R1 usually with body kicks/knees Itd be cool if Bendo won but i mean theres not a lot of reason to think he will
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Feb 14, 2015 21:11
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Triticum Guzzler posted:it'd be much cooler if bendo got his rear end insanely kicked in inimitable thatch style and made people money for no effort Agreed...
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Feb 14, 2015 21:24
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My favorite part is when all the shittiest posters come into this thread and go "dont bet on a mma" :iamafag: when someone is wrong about a prediction I dont mind being wrong on that fight, i think it was bendos best performance ever and it was cool to watch him not to go a tepid split decision for once. I didnt lose money on it because my book had thatch at like -180 which i think was lovely value, but my friend lost 200 bucks because he got thatch at like -120 (still a fine bet imo even having seen the fight)
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Feb 15, 2015 21:40
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I dont see a lot of value in betting on that fight unless you could get Nelson at like +250 or better and be aware that youre going to lose more often than not
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Mar 3, 2015 23:23
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Mr. Nice! posted:I mean, I want to believe and all as well, but isn't a repeat of that pretty much the best outcome for Crocop? Gonzaga is a lot worse than he was in that fight whereas Crocop isnt much worse than he was in that fight. But yes Gonzaga should be a favorite and i dont see a lot of value on either guy if the lines have Gonzaga as -175 or whatever it is
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Apr 9, 2015 04:39
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| # ¿ May 9, 2024 18:45 |
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Me: Lets flip a coin and if its heads you win $200, if its tails you owe me $100 Smart guy who sees through the BS: no way... coin flips are way too unpredictable. it would be retarded to bet on something random
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Apr 9, 2015 18:41
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