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world b lee
Feb 1, 2006
Is it a frog? Is it a toad?

henkman posted:



I should really start betting real money.

Except the real line on Weidman was never even close to that.

Pissed I didn't throw Sanchez in on my parlays, but can't feel that bad because he didn't really win. Although, those are some of the most satisfying bets to win. It helps reinforce my belief that the fights are actually judged by geriatrics with glaucoma, and also allows me to keep on riding the Leonard Garcia gravy train.

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world b lee
Feb 1, 2006
Is it a frog? Is it a toad?
Time to make a play with my Hendo fortune. Got a little riding on Olieviera to finish, as both guys strike fearlessly but I trust Olieviera to get it to the ground at some point and end it. Also got Lytle to take a decision.

Debating putting something down on Bendo but the current line isn't really worth it. The match ups way too close for me to be confident betting on either guy.

world b lee
Feb 1, 2006
Is it a frog? Is it a toad?
No one's betting on this crap UK card huh? I think Pickett has good value as the slight underdog against Barao, who isn't gonna be able to wrestle The Only Good British Wrestler. The hype is the only reason Barao is favored here.

world b lee
Feb 1, 2006
Is it a frog? Is it a toad?
So? There's the gimme bet of an Asian dude losing on the undercard (even though I hope Omigawa wins).

world b lee
Feb 1, 2006
Is it a frog? Is it a toad?
Anyone else like Big Country at +120 against Werdum? Seems like a wash on the ground and Werdum's reckless striking could get him in trouble against the more powerful puncher.

world b lee
Feb 1, 2006
Is it a frog? Is it a toad?
Both guys looked bad against Pierce, who's a bad match for pretty much anyone. So you can't really hold it against them or deduce much from their matchups against him. Also I don't think I'd consider "better temperment" a criteria in picking a fight.

I still go with Koscheck because they are extremely similar fighters, with Koscheck having the edge in experience. The fight will likely devolve into a hugathon and be very close (literally). I'd bet on Koscheck by decision if I had to but I ain't touching this fight.

Same with Diaz/Miller. Diaz has the advantage standing but there's no telling if he can stop Miller from taking him down, stuffing submissions and peppering him. 5 rounds makes it even more unpredictable as both guys have good cardio, sub defense, and endless heart.

Only bets I like on the Fox card are Big Johnson at +170 because he hits really hard and Barry's dumb despite being a much better striker. And Belcher at +240 because those are good odds when Palhares' chances depend solely on getting it to the ground in the first round, and even then Belcher's pretty savvy there.

Basically, listen to internet millionaire Chemtrail Clem.

world b lee
Feb 1, 2006
Is it a frog? Is it a toad?
Some good dogs on this card. I like Pyle against Story, Burrell against the Wonderboy, and Bowles by first round KO as a prop bet.

world b lee
Feb 1, 2006
Is it a frog? Is it a toad?
I did part of that. A Rua/Overeem/Pyle/Lauzon/Faber parlay. I don't know why Brown is a favorite other than his win streak and I'm considering putting a good chunk on Pyle straight up.

world b lee
Feb 1, 2006
Is it a frog? Is it a toad?
Unless Jacare's striking and cardio have improved significantly and Okami forgot how to sprawl, I'd be all over Okami at +190 this Wednesday.

world b lee
Feb 1, 2006
Is it a frog? Is it a toad?

fatherdog posted:

Howdy, everybody who inexplicably thought Jacare was going to be outstruck

Okami still stuffed all the takedowns :colbert:

world b lee
Feb 1, 2006
Is it a frog? Is it a toad?
Why would you ever bet on Melvin Guillard? The Melvin Corrollary of MMA Betting states that none shall prosper when they place dollars on explosive blonde haired black dudes.

world b lee
Feb 1, 2006
Is it a frog? Is it a toad?

Triticum Guzzler posted:

i would be very grateful to hear of other bellator bets

Put a few bucks on Rick Rainey and the death of the MVP hype train. Although Page is fun as hell to watch, this is his first opponent that hasn't been an outright can. The last dude he fought was straight up known as "The Farmer" and trains at Egyptian Top Team.

world b lee
Feb 1, 2006
Is it a frog? Is it a toad?

masato tatanka posted:

phil davis is +179 to get most takedowns vs. glover

I would absolutely not take this bet. Just me though.


I've got $50 on Patolino and $20 on Martin against Elkins.

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world b lee
Feb 1, 2006
Is it a frog? Is it a toad?
Davis couldn't one punch knockout a fainting goat. Glover's got good takedown defense and no respect for Phil's strikes, which he appears to throw more as a means to break a sweat than to hurt someone. All that leaves is Phil shooting the world's most telegraphed takedowns against a guy who, Chuck Liddell like, in his ability, Joe, to sprawwwl n' brawwwwl, is Glover Tey-xiera.

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