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Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Narmi posted:

Most goverments are wary of taking sides until everything is over. Ther are a lot of politics at play, which makes it really hard to stand up to the governments here. Hillary Clinton recently called a press conference denouncing the violence and saying the people had a right to protest peacefully, but reaffirming that the US supports the Bahrain government (but then again you can read this thread to see how much she believes that).

What exactly would Bahrain do if we sided with the protesters? Kick us out?

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MrQwerty
Apr 15, 2003

Young Freud posted:

What exactly would Bahrain do if we sided with the protesters? Kick us out?

Possibly, and then the Saudis would go completely loving ape poo poo

Narmi
Feb 26, 2008

Young Freud posted:

What exactly would Bahrain do if we sided with the protesters? Kick us out?

My understanding was that the west supports these guys, and in return they suport the us, especially with regards to the wars going on. They've got a pretty good thing going on over there, and the would like to keep it that way. Siding with people who (in their eyes) want to tear them down from their ivory tower wouldn't endear them to us, that's for sure.

But actualy ramifications, that's something I can't expand too much on without knowing exactly how we benefit from having the current regimes in power. Just as an example, I know that in Egypt, the CIA used Suleiman to torture prisoners and kept Islamist movements down. That's probably going to end now.

Also pissing off the Saudis would for sure have consequences, which is what would happen should anyone side against Bahrain's government.

VVVVV You said it better that I could.

Narmi fucked around with this message at 02:37 on Feb 19, 2011

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

US leaders have to be hesitant to throw clear support behind the protests because they have to consider two future possibilities:

1. What if a protest movement fails, after the US supported it? In that event, the US has just totally ruined its relationship and ability to engage in diplomacy with that regime, and all of that regime's friends (the various regimes in this region often have close ties with each other). It is a bad habit of ours to support stability out of economic interests while ignoring our supposedly inviolable stances on human rights and personal freedom; but, that habit is borne of genuine interest that cannot be dismissed out of hand. For example, our military bases.

2. What if a protest movement succeeds in toppling a government, but what replaces it is not what we would really like? It is too easy to feel solidarity with freedom-loving youths facing up against brutal dictators... but it is a mistake to be certain that what those young people want is a US-friendly, western-style democracy. In some cases many of them do... but remember that a majority of arabic people believe that 9/11 was a Jewish conspiracy. The government of egypt was essentially pro-Israel, at least in as much as they did not actively work against Israeli interests in the region. One of the reasons the US is OK with being blatantly anti-Iran is because Iran supports Hezbollah and its nuclear program is clearly aimed at countering nuclear-armed Israel. But we should not ignore the reality that whatever form the new government in Egypt will take, it is unlikely to be as cooperative with the US's pro-Israel stance as the former was. This is also true in many of the other countries engaging in protests. Leaving aside Israel, it is also a possibility that new governments turn out to be just as bad, or worse, than the old. The government we have installed in Afghanistan is horribly corrupt and I'm sure a lot of people are now regretting how heavily we supported Karzai.

Aside from those two possibilities, I would hope that US leaders including Barack Obama have studied the history of US interventions in the middle east, and found that we pretty much always gently caress it up. Nevermind iraq and afghanistan, look back at what happened with Iran. Everyone in the middle east has learned some version of that sordid and terrible history, and it is one of the many reasons why the US remains unpopular.

In fact I bet if you asked most of the protesters themselves would say they do not want US help or intervention. US backing of a revolt actually robs its legitimacy in the eyes of the arabic-speaking public.

Personally I am very hopeful that the spirit of revolution spreads, purely out of an interest in oppressed people finding more freedom and dignity for themselves. But while I'm disappointed at the conflicting messages that have come out of the Obama administration, I'm very glad that, at least so far, there's been no evidence that we're actively interfering (CIA, illicit funding to rebels, etc.) and that the President has avoided statements that would give anti-protestors and dictatorial regimes the ammunition of US collusion to fight against. The US must not once again create the situation of it being the boogeyman that these dictators use as excuses for crushing dissent.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 02:36 on Feb 19, 2011

SyRauk
Jun 21, 2007

The Persian Menace

Vernii posted:

Because the army would smash them like bugs with no reservations.

I know just the person for the job.

BCR
Jan 23, 2011

I see it as tribal groups competing with each other to hold onto the reigns of government to reward their own followers only. After decolonization, I see it a major issue dealt with in a number of ways.

An African example; you end up with a Nigeria with the President and Prime Minister being one Christian / one Muslim not both as a roadblock to full blown civil war.

You've got a Lebanon where when each sectarian and tribal community is weak, and there is no majority, there's peace. Then with outside influence you end up with a cycle of civil war as each group goes for the big prize, the PLO and Sunnis, Israeli backing the Christians, Iran and Hezbollah.

You've got a Yemen that's had tribe versus tribe adopting different outside banners for funding so they can take over the country for themselves. Once it was Communism and Western, now they go for Al Qaeda and US anti terrorism funding.

The only success story I can think of in the Middle East would be Turkey with the Young Turks and Kemalism and that's probably unique.

Decrepus
May 21, 2008

In the end, his dominion did not touch a single poster.


BCR posted:

I see it as tribal groups competing with each other to hold onto the reigns of government to reward their own followers only.

They are barbaric! :smug:

MrQwerty
Apr 15, 2003

Anatolia isn't the Middle East

BCR
Jan 23, 2011

MrQwerty posted:

I did not know that Arabs all live in the pre-Middle Ages!
FYI that is a pretty terrible analysis in every way, this isn't tribalism, antisemitism and some magical inability to think as good as westerners whipped into a fever pitch

No I see it as the unemployed young raging against their circumstances.

I see it as wanting jobs first, and they're protesting the systems failure to provide it to them.

I think that's the bulk of it.

And I see it as tribalism being the roadblock to it all, with a cycle of strongmen being the result, with a different ideology bolted on.

In Egypt you've gone from a authoritarian royal with King Farouk, to an authoritarian dreamer Pan Arabist with Nasser, to Sadat and Muburak. Power, wealth and influence confined to a small group to be distributed to family members, on a handful of prestige projects, and paying of the wages of those with the guns.

I don't see these protests changing this.

I don't think its a uniquely Arab problem, but it is one that cripples the area.

BCR
Jan 23, 2011

Decrepus posted:

They are barbaric! :smug:

I realise it sounds naive, I also know pork projects is a way of life in politics.

That said tribal politics in the area is at a different level to other systems.

You don't see Obama appointing his entire family to be heads of the Army, Police, different ministrys, and using the secret police to remove anyone who protests.

BCR
Jan 23, 2011

MrQwerty posted:

Anatolia isn't the Middle East

Its an important regional power with a long history in the area.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Turkey is in the Middle East. Stop being ridiculous.

Quake Williams
Feb 1, 2010
From last page:

Craiglen posted:

Why aren't there more people in this thread?
I'm in the same boat as the other lurkers. I've been following the thread and the Al-Jazeera live feed as closely as I can. I just have nothing to contribute that isn't "Oh my loving God" or something similar to videos of protesters getting outright murdered.

Ogive
Dec 22, 2002

by Lowtax
Less gibberish; more news about the middle east!

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug
Back when cellphone cameras appeared on the scene, the very first application I thought of for them was recording atrocities committed by governments against average people. I was not let down, these videos are damning as hell.

GnatKingCoal
Dec 17, 2008

You, Sir, are UNAmerican!

BCR posted:

You don't see Obama appointing his entire family to be heads of the Army, Police, different ministrys, and using the secret police to remove anyone who protests.

No, just major political donors who have no diplomatic credentials get cushy ambassadorial posts like Luxembourg.

QuentinCompson
Mar 11, 2009
And thread #2,123,305 derailed by recent-regdate-racism, go go.

YouTuber
Jul 31, 2004

by FactsAreUseless

Samurai Sanders posted:

Back when cellphone cameras appeared on the scene, the very first application I thought of for them was recording atrocities committed by governments against average people. I was not let down, these videos are damning as hell.

One of the very first major use of cameras were for taking pictures of massive amounts of the dead on American Civil War battlefields. Congratulations coming up with this stunning revelation 140 years later that cameras would be used for taking pictures of dead people!

Narmi
Feb 26, 2008
Can people please stop paying attention to BCR? He's either a troll or doesn't know what he's talking about. In either case arguing with him just further derails the thread.

Semi-related, US the went ahead and vetoed the UNSC resolution that would have called the settlements illegal. If anyone wants to see a US ambassdor flounder like a fish out of water, click here. Apparently the US vetoed the UN resolution (supported by all of the other 14 members of the UNSC) because it would lead to an increase in settlement activity and they're the ony ones who can broker a peace deal.

It's stuff like this that really lower the confidence people in he Middle-East have ith the US, and I can't blame them. In many Arab countries the US has lost its air of impartiality, and they see it as acting either in Isareli interests or its own. From what I've seen, this is why they don't want anyone in the west to "help" them et up transitional governments of in negotiations.

In any case, I would think that this would increase the amount of Palestinians protesting. They had a few hundred out yesterday, hopefully more will come out now.

Apology
Nov 12, 2005

by Y Kant Ozma Post
I found this rather interesting:

quote:

(Ahlul Bayt News Agency) - The 2011 year commences with interesting and shocking changes in the political arena, begging the mind to reflect upon its underlying significance and contemplate where the future will take us. In just one month the world has witnessed turmoil erupting from the Middle Eastern region of the globe, which has known to be quite complacent and submissive to its leadership. Over the past scores of years, many tyrant rulers and dictator leaders of the Middle East have increased in their arrogance, ignorance, and oppression against their own people. They continue to look after their own interest and work for themselves instead of working for their people. It is no secret that many of these puppet governments report to a higher senior management, succumbing to all their evil intentions to take control over the global economy, distort Islam (if not destroy it), and become the superpower that will take over the world. The injustice and oppression committed against the weak has reached its peak, and the poverty-stricken areas are incomparable in number to the handful of wealthy individuals who have hoarded power and money for themselves.

http://abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&id=227130&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

So it is clear that they know that Islam is being misused by regimes like the one in Iran in order to further oppress the people. People in the US like to pretend that the misogynistic, burkha-wearing, female circumcision form of Islam is the norm rather than the equivalent of snake-handling evangelical Christianity. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Narmi
Feb 26, 2008
CNN posted an interesting article as to why Bahrain is important, and why some people might want to maintain the staus quo:

quote:

Washington (CNN) -- Bahrain -- a tiny group of islands where hot political rhetoric meets cold military reality.

As far as Washington is concerned, this small Persian Gulf kingdom may be where support for Middle East democracy dies. The loss of American military power that could accompany an overthrow of the regime of King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa is incalculable.

Nestled between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Bahrain is home to 1.2 million people. More importantly, it's home to the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet -- a vital instrument for the Pentagon in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Fighter jets from carriers in the fleet provide close air support for American troops in Afghanistan.

The fleet is also a potential bulwark against a future nuclear Iran, analysts note.

"It's our most important strategic asset in the Persian Gulf," said Michael Rubin, a former Bahrain resident and Middle East expert at the American Enterprise Institute.

[...]

Bahrain has been ruled by a Sunni Muslim royal family since the British left in 1971. Two-thirds of its population are Shiites. While the latest turmoil is largely a reaction to uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia, and elsewhere, younger Shiites have routinely led protests -- often violent -- to complain about discrimination, unemployment and corruption.

They also rioted when the Islamic Revolution toppled the Shah of Iran in 1979. Since then, every time Shiite protests have become too heated, the Sunni rulers of Saudi Arabia have quietly sent troops into the country, according to Rubin.

"On the one hand, Bahrain is a flash point between the United States and Iran," he told CNN. On the other, it's "a flash point between Saudi Arabia and Iran."

Bahrain was actually a Persian province through the 16th century. Iran claimed the territory when the Britain left, but the Bahrainis opted for independence.

"Bahrain is Iran's Kuwait," Rubin said, referencing former Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein's insistence that Kuwait was rightfully an Iraqi province.

If Bahrain's government falls, "there is no question -- no ifs, ands or buts -- Bahrain would become an Iranian satellite, and the Fifth Fleet would be sent packing," Rubin predicted.

The Obama administration is "not being too vocal on the riots in Bahrain because it's pretty much the one country where we can't afford regime change," he said.

Could U.S. officials find a new naval home in the Gulf? Possibly Qatar or the United Arab Emirates, Rubin said, but "if there's a sense that the dominoes are falling and the United States is the big loser, then all the regional states are going to make their accommodation with Iran whether they like us or not."

The stakes could not be higher.

source


For people who want a bit more background on the protest in the Middle East/N. Africa, CNN also has an interactive mapr/short summary for each country:

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/18/mideast.africa.unrest/index.html

tourgon
Jan 21, 2010

by Ralp
Ignoring the guy who is obviously wrong, what seems really amazing to me is how straightforward and...not derailed or spoiled or corrupted these revolutions and protests have been. This has been particularly true for Egypt but it was true in Tunisia too and it seems to be so for now in Bahrain and Libya as well. I mean, there are definitely many conflicting interests but the fight for civil rights is a pretty straightforward fight and people seem to be focusing on that above all else. I think there is a difference from previous revolutions where a group or individuals could take advantage of situations when things went out of control, now people seem a lot more coordinated and in sync and I think the internet is a pretty big factor in that connectivity thing. Even when they shut down their internet, these people already know that there are people everywhere with the same beliefs so there is less uncertainty when they take to the streets, more of a sense of companionship because they were chatting, tweeting blogging or whatever before. Okay actually it's not much of a point I'm making, it just amazes me.
Also, about killing innocent civilians, if these videos get out to the general population, the regime could potentially losing support from very conservative sections of the population who would never ever want any riots or trouble so I really hope that people in Bahrain and Libya can spread the information.

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug

YouTuber posted:

One of the very first major use of cameras were for taking pictures of massive amounts of the dead on American Civil War battlefields. Congratulations coming up with this stunning revelation 140 years later that cameras would be used for taking pictures of dead people!
Yeah but the advent of cellphone cameras means that (eventually) everyone will be carrying a camera with them all the time, whether they went out intending to take pictures or not. As far as I know that's a first for the world.

Apology
Nov 12, 2005

by Y Kant Ozma Post
Gosh this is so heartening:

quote:

@FatiAmeer
Fatima Alarab
in salmanya #18feb one of the police officers resigned & joined us he was held on shoulders the whole way "A MAN & MEN R FEW" #bahrain #fb

OK back to the bad news:

quote:

A Polish priest was found dead with his throat slit in a private school outside of Tunis, the interior ministry said Friday, blaming the murder on a "group of fascist extremists".

Marek Rybinski, 34, whose body had also multiple stab wounds, was found dead on Friday in the garage of the religious school in Manouba region, where he was responsible for the accounting, a source close to the ministry told AFP news agency.

Judging by the way the attack was carried out, the interior ministry said a group "embracing extremist orientations is behind this crime," adding that the priest's family and the Polish embassy in Tunisia have been informed.

Citing government sources, the official TAP news agency said that Rybinski was likely assaulted before being killed.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/20112191176279419.html

Hmmm I wonder if this school was in direct competition with the private school owned by the former President's wife? :munch: Also you might want to read that article if you want to hear about Tunisian $14 hookers.

An explanation of why there isn't more news coming out of Libya:

quote:

EnoughGaddafi Enough Gaddafi
For all those frustrated by reporting on #libya understand this. There is Zero indpt media on the ground. Nothing at all (cont) #feb17

EnoughGaddafi Enough Gaddafi
(Cont) all reporting thus far has been through eye witness accounts. The authenticity of which is difficult to confirm, esp when (cont)

EnoughGaddafi Enough Gaddafi
(Cont) witness is afraid to contact media or corroborate a video or picture h/she took, #libya #feb17 (cont)

EnoughGaddafi Enough Gaddafi
(Cont) don't know if u remember n 1st days of #libya uprising, dris mismari attcked immediately after contacting aljazeera #feb17 (cont)

EnoughGaddafi Enough Gaddafi
(Cont) catch 22 in libya. You spk 2 media you could suffer, and if you don't get word out by spk 2 media u could suffer #Feb17 (cont)

EnoughGaddafi Enough Gaddafi
(Cont) the result is that we can generally understand what's happening, but the details that describe magnitude of events (cont)

EnoughGaddafi Enough Gaddafi
(Cont) are virtually impossible to confirm.its frustrating for pple on ground and those that want to report #libya #feb17

And a graphic:



Edit: another graphic:

Apology fucked around with this message at 04:30 on Feb 19, 2011

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
I added a bunch of pictures and videos in the D&D thread, Here's the post. This video especially is worth watching. Very graphic at end, clash between protesters and army in al-Badya, Libya.

:nms: :nws: https://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=103475683065662&oid=179449562095105&comments :nms: :nws:

edit: very very graphic, a guy gets his head shot off.

Xandu fucked around with this message at 05:28 on Feb 19, 2011

Dudebro
Jan 1, 2010
I :fap: TO UNDERAGE GYMNASTS
^^^^

You need a bigger warning than that. That is so incredibly graphic. Jesus. We've already won the lottery by being born in this part of the world.

MA-Horus
Dec 3, 2006

I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of how awesome I am.

Envoy from Bahrain to the United States.

"Proportional force was used."

JESUS loving CHRIST. How can you say that with a straight face when that youtube video is all over loving CNN now?

Apology
Nov 12, 2005

by Y Kant Ozma Post

Xandu posted:

I added a bunch of pictures and videos in the D&D thread, Here's the post. This video especially is worth watching. Very graphic at end, clash between protesters and army in al-Badya, Libya.

:nms: :nws: https://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=103475683065662&oid=179449562095105&comments :nms: :nws:

edit: very very graphic, a guy gets his head shot off.

JEEEEZUSSSSS :gonk:

Homeroom Fingering
Apr 25, 2009

The secret history (((they))) don't want you to know

Xandu posted:

:nms: :nws: https://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=103475683065662&oid=179449562095105&comments :nms: :nws:

edit: very very graphic, a guy gets his head shot off.

I was going to give an editorial about the recent posts dancing around the reason why the US stays out, but after seeing that I won't. It seems incredibly unimportant now.

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


I'm going to go on record right now to say "gently caress everyone who made the events in that video possible".

Mad Doctor Cthulhu
Mar 3, 2008

GonadTheBallbarian posted:

I'm going to go on record right now to say "gently caress everyone who made the events in that video possible".

This is an incredibly small point to make in light of the horrific events that I've seen, but this is one of the reasons why we need a free Internet. America's current view on media outlets is the recognition (and the exploitation) of biased reporting, but the Internet's role in that allows the public unfiltered access that simply cannot and should be restricted. The media can filter the news anyway they want (and they often do), but nothing is more informative than hearing the uncut and uncensored truth like the events on that video.

Information likes to be free, and if anything (and I restate, this is a very small point to make) this proves that the Internet should not be tampered with at any costs.

MC Fruit Stripe
Nov 26, 2002

around and around we go

Mad Doctor Cthulhu posted:

Information likes to be free, and if anything (and I restate, this is a very small point to make) this proves that the Internet should not be tampered with at any costs.
It's just so sad that a majority of our society doesn't want to see these things, regardless of their access. It's considered unpleasant, so it's better to just ignore it because maybe if we ignore it then problems should go away. Find someone in favor of [unpopular current event] and show them footage like this, and they'll give you the stock "eww I don't want to see that" response - yeah, but you're in favor of it, so don't you? Images like that guy's head pouring blood while being dragged away should be mimeographed onto our Starbucks cups with a little caption "This is happening somewhere in the world".

/rant

Mad Doctor Cthulhu
Mar 3, 2008

MC Fruit Stripe posted:

It's just so sad that a majority of our society doesn't want to see these things, regardless of their access. It's considered unpleasant, so it's better to just ignore it because maybe if we ignore it then problems should go away. Find someone in favor of [unpopular current event] and show them footage like this, and they'll give you the stock "eww I don't want to see that" response - yeah, but you're in favor of it, so don't you? Images like that guy's head pouring blood while being dragged away should be mimeographed onto our Starbucks cups with a little caption "This is happening somewhere in the world".

/rant

Bizarrely enough, those who are the most unlikely to see it are the same ones who boast of 'revolution' simply because the president isn't of their exclusive choosing. But regardless, a free Internet benefits everybody. Especially in cases like this where several regimes attempt to deny access and still fall.

randombattle
Oct 16, 2008

This hand of mine shines and roars! It's bright cry tells me to grasp victory!

Mad Doctor Cthulhu posted:

Bizarrely enough, those who are the most unlikely to see it are the same ones who boast of 'revolution' simply because the president isn't of their exclusive choosing. But regardless, a free Internet benefits everybody. Especially in cases like this where several regimes attempt to deny access and still fall.

Really at the end of the day all of America's boasting of "freedom" and "wanting to spread democracy" is just the same goal as every other nation on the planet. America's only looking out for itself and it's own interests. The leaders want to stay in charge and have no problems doing whatever they can to keep it that way. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just fooling themselves into sugar coating the world.

The problem is just that some people are really happier just going along with whatever someone says as long as it lets them keep whatever lifestyle they are accustomed to. Hell of a lot easier to ignore something then do something about it.

Lemonus
Apr 25, 2005

Return dignity to the art of loafing.
I feel sick after that video


The humanity. Fucks sakes ><

Genesplicer
Oct 19, 2002

I give your invention the worst grade imaginable: An A-minus-minus!

Total Clam

Xandu posted:

By the way, yesterday was the 2 month anniversary Mohamed Bouazizi immolating himself in Tunisia.

I wonder what he would feel, if he knew what his act was going to give rise to. So much is changing because of him, but so many are being killed or wounded.


I know it was not simply his act that sparked all of this, any more than Princip's assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was the only cause of World War I, but I feel safe in saying that historians will look back at his act and say "This was the tipping point."

Slantedfloors
Apr 29, 2008

Wait, What?

genesplicer posted:

I wonder what he would feel, if he knew what his act was going to give rise to. So much is changing because of him, but so many are being killed or wounded.


I know it was not simply his act that sparked all of this, any more than Princip's assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was the only cause of World War I, but I feel safe in saying that historians will look back at his act and say "This was the tipping point."

Seriously, dude is like the new Tank Man.

quadratic
May 2, 2002
f(x) = ax^2 + bx + c
Add Djibouti to the list. (AJE)

quote:

Thousands of demonstrators have rallied in the East African nation of Djibouti to demand that president Ismail Omar Guelleh resign, the latest in a series of demonstrations spurred on by political protests across Africa and the Middle East.

Amid a tight police deployment, the demonstrators gathered at a stadium on Friday with the intention of staying there until their demands were met.

But the demonstration escalated into clashes after dusk, as authorities used batons and tear gas against stone-throwing protesters.

Guelleh has served two terms and faces an election in April, but critics are concerned by changes he made to the constitution last year that scrapped a two-term limit.

Officials from the Union for Democratic Change, an umbrella group of three opposition parties, gave speeches at Friday's demonstration calling for Guelleh to step down.

The group's leader, Ismael Guedi Hared, told the AFP news agency before the demonstration that Guelleh should leave power and called for a sustained protest movement.

"For the moment, our goal is to remove Ismael Omar Guelleh from power," he said.

Apology
Nov 12, 2005

by Y Kant Ozma Post
After hearing about further uprisings, I've added a few tweeters from Djibouti and Uganda to the Middle East News twitter list.

Thanks quadratic, you beat me to the announcement.

Also, I renamed the list to Middle East_Africa News, since it's more appropriate.

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randombattle
Oct 16, 2008

This hand of mine shines and roars! It's bright cry tells me to grasp victory!

genesplicer posted:

I wonder what he would feel, if he knew what his act was going to give rise to. So much is changing because of him, but so many are being killed or wounded.


I know it was not simply his act that sparked all of this, any more than Princip's assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was the only cause of World War I, but I feel safe in saying that historians will look back at his act and say "This was the tipping point."

Wait isn't that the definition of sparking something? Like he was literally the spark that lit the already gas soaked nation to create flames of rebellion?

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